Premier League Odds-On Away Lays 2023-24 Season

I've seen worse ideas posted on here, but this one hasn't been consistently successful. Here's how it would have played out in previous seasons. You may also be a little optimistic on the prices. For example this season I had Chelsea available to back at 1.83 v Bournemouth so a lay at 1.8 would have been tricky. My calculations use 1.86 for this one.

2000-01    29    2.68
2001-02    37    -13.41
2002-03    37    0.71
2003-04    42    -3.83
2004-05    41    -9.10
2005-06    47    0.37
2006-07    48    -6.94
2007-08    56    -6.46
2008-09    55    -16.95
2009-10    66    23.42
2010-11    49    17.70
2011-12    63    4.89
2012-13    58    -5.60
2013-14    64    -7.47
2014-15    58    -1.86
2015-16    47    6.54
2016-17    77    -13.06
2017-18    81    -1.10
2018-19    75    -12.89
2019-20    72    11.24
2020-21    76    6.59
2021-22    71    -9.83
2022-23    70    19.98
2023-24    11    -8.84
Total    1330    -23.19

that's really interesting. the best years would have been 2009-2012 when forum was still buzzing.

I knew it would have been profitable last year from my own records but I didn't think it would always be. That's how this all started, a pre season discussion about betting approaches. I did get the 1.8 lay on Chelsea, it's maybe a bit lucky with the price timing but plenty of my other picks moved against me, last year and year before, so it's swings and roundabouts and will even out enough over time, to still have the same conclusion, in my view. I'm fine if this experiment proves a loss maker, we see plenty of people claiming these lays are a constant gold mine, it will be good to have something solid to refer to.

Discussions about betting approaches are what this forum should be about, so I'm all in favour of threads like this one.

Have you considered waiting until December before trying this? Some interesting results here:   https://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2023/09/winter-gold-mine.html

Discussions about betting approaches are what this forum should be about, so I'm all in favour of threads like this one.

I agree.
To put my comments in context, I have 8 years worth of soccer data covering several countries and I have a lot of experience in relating percentage chance to odds, and how the markets change/decay in running.
The market makers have more data, more program analysis availability, and super fast algorithms. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge, and the way the markets are, means that the margin between the back and lay sides makes it more difficult still.
I have said this on here many times, “Data is random”. If something occurs 50% of the time, the sequence will not be W, L, W, L, W, L etc. The winning and losing sequences over time are random, as the results of the OP’s strategy are showing.
I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters.

You're talking about variance, which is a very important concept to understand. If something occurs 50% of the time as in your example, then over 1,000 events it will almost certainly (99.71%) lose six times in a row with a greater than 5% chance of a losing run of 13 in that time. The variance will be higher when laying odds-on, but unless the method has +EV, it's doomed.

Can you clarify your last sentences - "I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters." ?

@cpfc4me, I'm honoured to have piqued your interest with my thread

I have had various thoughts on the timing. This thread aside, most seasons I start off well, give myself the impression I have a good eye for value, then hit the rails and give most of it back around Late November early December through to the end of January and then start to do better as the season ends, before we get to the tail end where teams give up and results can be odd. I had a profitable 2021-22 but a loss making 2022-23, so I feel like I can do it but last year proved not consistently but I've long thought that something happens mid season that I can't put my finger on.

If there's something to be said for only doing these odds on lays in the second half of the season, I might see that later on, if I keep this up, which I do still intend to do. I also wonder about excluding Man City and newly promoted sides, which I note you've analysed in your blog but sometimes that's where the lucrative shocks come from, so initially my instinct was to include all, so as not to miss out. In any case I wasn't doing this particular thread with real a expectation of a profit but more to track it all publicly, as stated in my OP. As I've already said though, I'm surprised it's been as bad as it has, first 9 bets losers and 12 out of 13 losers overall.

RE Rigsby's post I suspect he's alluding to the fact there's no 3rd option, i.e the draw, overs/unders has only 2 selections, where match odds has 3 outcomes/prices to track.

Can you clarify your last sentences - "I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters." ?

When I know that the odds and stats are in my favour I back another goal in play at the appropriate time.
Simply, there is another goal or not. It does not matter which team scores the goal, which player scores the goal, what the final score is, whether the game ends H, A, or D. If a goal is scored I win, if not I lose. Once the bet is placed I can walk away from it and do something else.
Additionally, my strategies vary between each half, because the markets are different.
I do not watch the game, have any interest in who wins, or look to see how many SOT’s (it only takes one shot to score a goal). I prefer non UK games because I have no knowledge baggage which may psychologically affect my decision making.

any 12 from 13

358/1 

shame about Chelsea

There's no fixture where you'd think 'no, i'll pass on that one' and no assessment of price/value whatsoever?

@hulk lol yes I thought about that too imagine backing them all in an acca/perm

@lurka yes that's the point of this thread, not to try to cherry pick. these are not my tips/selections, just me assessing whether there's any truth to the rumour that it's a profitable approach. Having said that, the ones I would have picked wouldn't have been winning bets anyway, with the exception of Chelsea at Bournemouth. I did it the other way the last two years with mixed results and this is a different project.

two more this weekend coming
bet 14 lay Arsenal at Bournemouth at 1.57, 1pt to win 1.75
bet 15 lay Man City at Wolves at 1.37, 1pt to win 2.70

Away teams have been odds-on to win at AFC Bournemouth in the EPL 31 times, and lays would have amounted to a loss of 2.55 units. +0.55u when laying Arsenal.

For Wolves, it's 38 matches and a loss of 0.31u. When laying Man City, +1.63u.

well we got another winner and not the one we would have expected. +2.65 points from bet 15. Updated table to follow

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%

green shoots EWAW green shoots

two this weekend
bet 16 lay Spurs at Luton at 1.51 1pt to win 1.96
bet 17 lay Chelsea at Burnley 1.81 1pt to win 1.23

wolves beating city was an unexpected nice return

Lay Brentford too.

Brentford are Away, but unlikely to be odds-on!

yes, I assumed that was a joke but it's gone over my head I must admit

Brentford  odds on at Man U would definitely be a lay

well done Brentford layers but as far as this thread goes, no more gold was mined today

bets 16 & 17 lost

I looked at this strategy in the Bundesliga (and named it BundesLAYga) and since 2012-23, the ROI in Bundesliga.1 is 3% but in Bundesliga.2 it's 22% 

+29.35units from 134 bets - worth a look IMO

I read somewhere, backing odds on away in serie A would produce a profit in 10 out of the last 11 seasons.

Since 2012-13, this has a profit of 51.43 units from 678 bets, an ROI of 7.6%. Not bad. Only two losing seasons in 11, but small losses in those two seasons 2014-15 -2.19u and 1015-16 - 0.38u.

2015-16 obvs.

For this season so far, 14 matches 10 winners +2.78

one for the weekend coming, bet 18 lay man utd at sheffield utd at 1.46 - 1pt to win 2.17

i KNOW i'm small change in this game but I have spent many a long hour number crunching, like Rigsby I have absolutely no interest in who wins, and I totally get what he says about the dangers of baggage  psychologically affecting decision making. Sometimes  I'll have a play in the championship or div 1 but never look at the English Prem.

Betting on there being another goal, don't the odds get a bit skinny Rigsby?
Just wondering.
Maybe you only play in  certain games.
None of my business of course and good luck to you.

I WOULD just like to make one suggestion e.a.w.
Respectfully of course.
Might it not be better to have a set win amount than a set  lay-stake.
ie. Lay to win a set amount.
The lower the odds you lay, the higher you stake and the more you win.
Just a thought.

And the few times I've noticed big team "not winning" necessarily but not "losing".
They really were hotpots, Something like 1.2 and yes. it happens.
And like with Snipers BTTS ACCA plan, it's those shockers that bump up the winnings.
And maybe, I don't know, might there be some chance of greening up when the minnow goes one-up.
Although at a £1 pound stake, probably not a consideration.
Waiting a while might just help the market to move a bit.
Not wishing to question your stake here.
I know how it feels to think you hit on something and then watch your hard-earned go down the toilet.
Been there, done that.

I know what you're saying about waiting and usually favourites shorten, though not always, so yeah I've laid man u a bit early but I work most weekends, so have to put the bets on early. I mentioned the timing in my op. I don't think the little movements here will be the difference between a winning or losing thread overall.

I'm not thinking that I hit on something, far from it, I just want to have it all out in the open. cpfc4me has already got more tracking data than I do, on his blog but I like the idea of having a whole season here on the forum, to refer to, if I can keep it up.

What you're saying about the staking is just another way of doing it. This way my liability is the same every time, so I win more when the shorter odds are turned over. Your way I would only win the same flat stakes amount for every successful lay, though I'd also lose less, when they are unsuccessful.

Greening up won't prove whether there is any value in the original lay prices, so I am not doing that for the purposes of this thread. These challenges have been about the pre k/o prices, not the ability to green out in play. That would be a completely different notion, i.e trading prices. You'd have to red out when the favourite went one up, to balance it out, or you're just giving away potential profit on all the +ve ones and not reducing any losses on the -ve ones.

Can't argue with that eaw.
Fair play and good to you.

Good LUCK to you even.

@ericster
Thank you for positive comments.
It is the simplicity as well. For example, back in the day, the “experts” said lay the draw and green at the goal with all sorts of caveats. Back +0.5 wins when/if a goal is scored and there is no hassle of sitting in front of a screen waiting for a goal, and it does not matter whether the fav or the dog scores. If it is the dog, the cash out will be small with the lay/back draw system. Also I don’t have to wait for the market to offer an acceptable cash out price.
Re Odds:
You are correct that the odds can be skinny, but with decay they lengthen throughout the game. In most cases the decay is mathematically predictable, so I can place my bet in play at the odds I expect them to be at a particular time in the game. If a goal is scored before that point, the unmatched bet is automatically cancelled with no loss. In the leagues I play in, I know that 93/94% of all games will have at least one goal (1.07), so you can see why they are “skinny”.
Yes, I do only play in certain games. I have my price which is based on my data.
FWIW, the average time for the first goal is circa 30 mins, and there are more goals in second half than first.
An important aspect about decay: suppose I price a bet pre kick off at 1.24, but it is only available to back at 1.20, I will not back it at 1.24 in play after decay, because it will be the wrong price. It should be 1.29, and therefore 1.24 at that time is poor value.
I hope I have given you something to think about.

Rigsby :

"Value", errr yeah, that old chestnut. Or should I say "hot potato". Enough said I think.
I get what you say about decay. Have watched enough games, the full 90 , to be fully aware of what you're saying, and yes, you've given me food for thought.
I trade in-play and the numbers involved profit-wise is usually around 1.30. I really am small time.
There isn't much room for error is there.

Thanks for the post Rigsby.

bet 18 lost. puts the project minus 12.13 pts after week 9

there were opportunities for greening there as well, as it was 1-1 for a good while but that's not what I'm tracking here but it's an idea... if you had clear in and out points. Not my area of expertise and I wouldn't be able to follow enough of them in play to be really into that but food for thought.

Oct 22, 2023 -- 8:20AM, everyone's a winner wrote:

bet 18 lost. puts the project minus 12.13 pts after week 9there were opportunities for greening there as well, as it was 1-1 for a good while but that's not what I'm tracking here but it's an idea... if you had clear in and out points. Not my area of expertise and I wouldn't be able to follow enough of them in play to be really into that but food for thought.

Yeahhh, I know.
I like the in-play, playing with numbers, y'know ?
And  I hate watching a green go down the toilet.

BUT...

I often find myself thinking if only I'd taken the profit, If I could have just waited a few minutes.
Does your head in.

Rigsby says about percentages but nothing is 100% is it.
They slip through the net and I try not to let that happen.
Go in earlier, lay a bigger price, and again, time after time,  I sit and watch the red c/o increase as the odds I've layed shorten.

If Rigsby doing okay with how he's operating, and with what I know of the in-play markets, or rather what I like to THINK I know,I take my hat off to him, I really do.

three this weekend coming..

bet 19 lay Spurs at Palace at 1.87 - 1pt to win 1.15
bet 20 lay Newcastle at Wolves at 1.88 - 1pt to win 1.14
bet 21 lay Man City at Man Utd at 1.73 - 1pt to win 1.35

bet 19 lost
bet 20 won +1.12 after commission
bet 21 lost
updated table below

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%

Bet 22 lay villa at forest at 1.95 to win 1.05
Bet 23 lay Liverpool at Luton at 1.26 to win 3.86

bet 22 won 1.03
bet 23 won 3.78
Overall minus 8.2pts now updated table below..

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.05	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%

bet 24 lay newcastle at bournemouth at 1.77 to win 1.3pts
bet 25 lay man city at chelsea at 1.8 to win 1.25pts

bet 24 won 1.27pts
bet 25 won 1.22pts
overall minus 5.71 going into international break 3. updated table below

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.05	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%

bet 26 lay arsenal at brentford at 1.82 to win 1.22

bet 26 lost -6.71pts overall

bet 27 lay arsenal at luton at 1.24 to win 4.16pts
bet 28 lay liverpool at sheffield utd at 1.22 to win 4.54 pts
bet 29 lay man city at villa at 1.76 to win 1.31pts

bet 27 lost - Luton so close to holding on!
bet 28 lost
bet 29 won +1.28,
overall minus 7.43pts updated table below

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	05-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	05-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%

definatley on the up eaw

trending in the right direction since September, Dragon, thanks for the encouragement! It's more interesting when they're not all losing bets

three this weekend..

bet 30 lay liverpool at palace at 1.56 to win 1.78pts
bet 31 lay brentford at sheff utd at 1.88 to win 1.14pts. First time we've had Brentford OOA
bet 32 lay man city at luton at 1.18 to win 5.55pts

bet 30 lost - pity about the last 15 mins
bet 31 won +1.12 after commission
bet 32 lost - although 1 down for a while

so lots of greening opportunities, as was pointed out earlier but that's not the point.

will update table after the next weekend of fixtures, looks like just spurs on friday

bet 33 lay spurs tonight at 1.79 away at forest, to win 1.26pts

gl ewa this is a very interesting thread to observe. thanks for starting it

will be really interesting to see how it ends up

no probs, dragon, quite interested in it myself and looking forward to the 2nd half of the season. someone suggested earlier that it will be different after Christmas.

no shocks with bet 33, next one looks like being newcastle on the 23rd. updated table below..

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose)	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	06-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	06-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%
30	09-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Palace	1.56	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	30.00	-8.43	-28.10%
31	09-Dec	Lay Brentford (A) v Sheff Utd	1.88	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.12	31.00	-7.31	-23.58%
32	10-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Luton	1.18	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	32.00	-8.31	-25.97%
33	15-Dec	Lay Spurs (A) v Forest	1.79	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	33.00	-9.31	-28.21%

bet 34 lay newcastle tomorrow at 1.71 to win 1.41pts, away at luton

wonder if chelsea will get backed in on the 24th? 2.06 to lay currently..

bet34 won +1.38 after commission

Overall -7.93pts / -23.32%

Back on Boxing Day for Liverpool

bet 35 lay liverpool at 1.4 away at burnley later today, to win 2.5
bet 36 lay man city at everton tomorrow at 1.62 to win 1.61

no Christmas shocks, both bets losers, updated table below..

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose)	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	06-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	06-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%
30	09-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Palace	1.56	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	30.00	-8.43	-28.10%
31	09-Dec	Lay Brentford (A) v Sheff Utd	1.88	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.12	31.00	-7.31	-23.58%
32	10-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Luton	1.18	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	32.00	-8.31	-25.97%
33	15-Dec	Lay Spurs (A) v Forest	1.79	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	33.00	-9.31	-28.21%
34	23-Dec	Lay Newcastle (A) v Luton	1.71	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.38	34.00	-7.93	-23.32%
35	26-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Burnley	1.4	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	35.00	-8.93	-25.51%
36	27-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Everton	1.62	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	36.00	-9.93	-27.58%

I wonder how this idea might fare if you trawled through the coupon laying only sub 1.1 favourites.
just saying.
And then, maybe if you took a look at games where there was NO REAL FAVOURITE.
Yes you'd be laying odds of around 3.5 but .....
Just a thought.

I wasn't referring to you personally e.a.w.
Just thinking allowed.

perhaps you could try it, start a thread ..

i noticed today you'd make a 3-5% profit just laying the draw in the UK prem in the last 3 seasons. not really exciting enough to bother with but these sorts of thing interest me. is there really any edge to be found in any of these odds? i could imagine doing that then hitting a couple of really heavy losers in a row and looking very silly

bet 37 lay chelsea at luton at 1.62 to win 1.61
bet 38 lay arsenal at fulham at 1.61 to win 1.64

bet 37 lost
bet 38 won 1.61 after commission

overall -9.32pts / -24.53% ROI

next bets will be the weekend 13th/14th

bet 39 lay Man City at Newcastle at 1.68 to win 1.47

bet 39 another disappointing one with good greening opportunities, as were 2-1 down for a while. overall 10.32pts down/-26.46%. updated table below. next one will be liverpool a week today, presumably

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose)	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	06-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	06-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%
30	09-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Palace	1.56	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	30.00	-8.43	-28.10%
31	09-Dec	Lay Brentford (A) v Sheff Utd	1.88	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.12	31.00	-7.31	-23.58%
32	10-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Luton	1.18	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	32.00	-8.31	-25.97%
33	15-Dec	Lay Spurs (A) v Forest	1.79	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	33.00	-9.31	-28.21%
34	23-Dec	Lay Newcastle (A) v Luton	1.71	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.38	34.00	-7.93	-23.32%
35	26-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Burnley	1.4	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	35.00	-8.93	-25.51%
36	27-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Everton	1.62	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	36.00	-9.93	-27.58%
37	30-Dec	Lay Chelsea (A) v Luton	1.62	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	37.00	-10.93	-29.54%
38	31-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Fulham	1.61	1.00	2-1 (Win)	1.61	38.00	-9.32	-24.53%
39	13-Jan	Lay Man City (A) v Newcastle	1.68	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	39.00	-10.32	-26.46%

Dec 28, 2023 -- 8:08PM, everyone's a winner wrote:

perhaps you could try it, start a thread ..  i noticed today you'd make a 3-5% profit just laying the draw in the UK prem in the last 3 seasons. not really exciting enough to bother with but these sorts of thing interest me. is there really any edge to be found in any of these odds? i could imagine doing that then hitting a couple of really heavy losers in a row and looking very silly

Now THERE'S a thought eaw.
You've given me an idea.
Do I have the mindset to go with something like this ?
I mean, it's full-on isn't it, I'd have to track everyone or not at all.
Also, I wouldn't know how to set up a table like that.
Interesting though.
I'll think about it.

the table I do in excel with pipe signs for the columns, then copy & paste, once you understand the format needed for the forum it's not too hard.

i'm thinking about all the greening opportunities. i can't monitor all the games in play but if i had a pre-determined cash out point, i could put in an unmatched keep bet beforehand, i think. that might be next years project. it's understanding what the trade out point(s) should be

just one this weekend on sunday, bet 40 lay liverpool at bournemouth at 1.78 to win 1.28

bet 40 lost

two midweek selections this week, both tomorrow night:

bet 41 lay arsenal at forest at 1.43 to win 2.32
bet 42 lay brighton at luton at 1.78 to win 1.28

bet 41 lost, bet 42 won +1.25 updated table below..

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose)	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	06-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	06-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%
30	09-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Palace	1.56	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	30.00	-8.43	-28.10%
31	09-Dec	Lay Brentford (A) v Sheff Utd	1.88	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.12	31.00	-7.31	-23.58%
32	10-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Luton	1.18	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	32.00	-8.31	-25.97%
33	15-Dec	Lay Spurs (A) v Forest	1.79	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	33.00	-9.31	-28.21%
34	23-Dec	Lay Newcastle (A) v Luton	1.71	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.38	34.00	-7.93	-23.32%
35	26-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Burnley	1.4	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	35.00	-8.93	-25.51%
36	27-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Everton	1.62	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	36.00	-9.93	-27.58%
37	30-Dec	Lay Chelsea (A) v Luton	1.62	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	37.00	-10.93	-29.54%
38	31-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Fulham	1.61	1.00	2-1 (Win)	1.61	38.00	-9.32	-24.53%
39	13-Jan	Lay Man City (A) v Newcastle	1.68	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	39.00	-10.32	-26.46%
40	21-Jan	Lay Liverpool (A) v Bournemouth	1.78	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	40.00	-11.32	-28.30%
41	30-Jan	Lay Arsenal (A) v Forest	1.43	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	41.00	-12.32	-30.05%
42	30-Jan	Lay Brighton (A) v Luton	1.78	1.00	4-0 (Win)	1.25	42.00	-11.07	-26.36%

two this weekend..
bet 43 lay villa at sheffield utd at 1.69 to win 1.45
bet 44 lay man city at brentford at 1.43 to win 2.32

43 & 44 lost
two this weekend
bet 45 lay arsenal at west ham at 1.57 to win 1.75
bet 46 lay chelsea at palace at 1.82 to win 1.22

two more losers last weekend. A real feast this week though, with four of them to lay..

bet 47 lay liverpool at brentford at 1.7 to win 1.43
bet 48 lay arsenal at burnley at 1.35 to win 2.85
bet 49 lay brighton at sheffield utd at 1.7 to win 1.43
bet 50 lay man utd at luton at 1.86 to win 1.16

all four losers, shocking. Whose bright idea was this? Updated table to follow

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose)	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	06-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	06-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%
30	09-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Palace	1.56	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	30.00	-8.43	-28.10%
31	09-Dec	Lay Brentford (A) v Sheff Utd	1.88	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.12	31.00	-7.31	-23.58%
32	10-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Luton	1.18	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	32.00	-8.31	-25.97%
33	15-Dec	Lay Spurs (A) v Forest	1.79	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	33.00	-9.31	-28.21%
34	23-Dec	Lay Newcastle (A) v Luton	1.71	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.38	34.00	-7.93	-23.32%
35	26-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Burnley	1.4	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	35.00	-8.93	-25.51%
36	27-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Everton	1.62	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	36.00	-9.93	-27.58%
37	30-Dec	Lay Chelsea (A) v Luton	1.62	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	37.00	-10.93	-29.54%
38	31-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Fulham	1.61	1.00	2-1 (Win)	1.61	38.00	-9.32	-24.53%
39	13-Jan	Lay Man City (A) v Newcastle	1.68	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	39.00	-10.32	-26.46%
40	21-Jan	Lay Liverpool (A) v Bournemouth	1.78	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	40.00	-11.32	-28.30%
41	30-Jan	Lay Arsenal (A) v Forest	1.43	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	41.00	-12.32	-30.05%
42	30-Jan	Lay Brighton (A) v Luton	1.78	1.00	4-0 (Win)	1.25	42.00	-11.07	-26.36%
43	03-Feb	Lay Villa (A) v Sheff Utd	1.69	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	43.00	-12.07	-28.07%
44	04-Feb	Lay Man City (A) v Brentford	1.43	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	44.00	-13.07	-29.70%
45	11-Feb	Lay Arsenal (A) v West Ham	1.57	1.00	0-6 (Lose)	-1.00	45.00	-14.07	-31.27%
46	12-Feb	Lay Chelsea (A) v Palace	1.82	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	46.00	-15.07	-32.76%
47	17-Feb	Lay Liverpool (A) v Brentford	1.7	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	47.00	-16.07	-34.19%
48	17-Feb	Lay Arsenal (A) v Burnley	1.35	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	48.00	-17.07	-35.56%
49	18-Feb	Lay Brighton (A) v Sheffield Utd	1.7	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	49.00	-18.07	-36.88%
50	18-Feb	Lay Man Utd (A) v Luton	1.86	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	50.00	-19.07	-38.14%

its a long season eaw, many twits and turns to come im sure but a profit is not looking likely at this stage.

TBH i used to make a few quid on football betting in days gone buy but its not like that anymore.

think i need to consider my approach maybe backing the top four at odds on is the way forward?

yeah, can't be done now. I reckon there will be about 25 more selections before the end, so it's just a matter of interest now. I'm starting to think the only way to turn a profit on this is trading, because plenty of these have offered opportunities for greening but that's never really been my thing and I don't monitor matches in play very often.

I do think this season is a bit of an anomaly with so many consistent away favourite winners. Not sure if it's because the top 4 are stronger or bottom 4 weaker or a bit of both. It could also be because the top of the table is quite competitive still, no one is running away with it, so none of them can afford to let up

yes you are probably right on all counts

one this week,
bet 51 lay man city at bournemouth at 1.45 to win 2.22

bet 51 lost
bet 52 lay liverpool at forest at 1.57 to win 1.75
bet 53 lay villa at luton at 1.73 to win 1.37
bet 54 lay arsenal at sheffield utd at 1.2 to in 5.0

52 -54 look tough

and so it proved Dragon.. glimmers of hope in the first two and would have been trading opportunities but all losers in the end. None this weekend, unusually. I've updated the table in the meantime.

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose)	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	06-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	06-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%
30	09-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Palace	1.56	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	30.00	-8.43	-28.10%
31	09-Dec	Lay Brentford (A) v Sheff Utd	1.88	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.12	31.00	-7.31	-23.58%
32	10-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Luton	1.18	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	32.00	-8.31	-25.97%
33	15-Dec	Lay Spurs (A) v Forest	1.79	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	33.00	-9.31	-28.21%
34	23-Dec	Lay Newcastle (A) v Luton	1.71	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.38	34.00	-7.93	-23.32%
35	26-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Burnley	1.4	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	35.00	-8.93	-25.51%
36	27-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Everton	1.62	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	36.00	-9.93	-27.58%
37	30-Dec	Lay Chelsea (A) v Luton	1.62	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	37.00	-10.93	-29.54%
38	31-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Fulham	1.61	1.00	2-1 (Win)	1.61	38.00	-9.32	-24.53%
39	13-Jan	Lay Man City (A) v Newcastle	1.68	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	39.00	-10.32	-26.46%
40	21-Jan	Lay Liverpool (A) v Bournemouth	1.78	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	40.00	-11.32	-28.30%
41	30-Jan	Lay Arsenal (A) v Forest	1.43	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	41.00	-12.32	-30.05%
42	30-Jan	Lay Brighton (A) v Luton	1.78	1.00	4-0 (Win)	1.25	42.00	-11.07	-26.36%
43	03-Feb	Lay Villa (A) v Sheff Utd	1.69	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	43.00	-12.07	-28.07%
44	04-Feb	Lay Man City (A) v Brentford	1.43	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	44.00	-13.07	-29.70%
45	11-Feb	Lay Arsenal (A) v West Ham	1.57	1.00	0-6 (Lose)	-1.00	45.00	-14.07	-31.27%
46	12-Feb	Lay Chelsea (A) v Palace	1.82	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	46.00	-15.07	-32.76%
47	17-Feb	Lay Liverpool (A) v Brentford	1.7	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	47.00	-16.07	-34.19%
48	17-Feb	Lay Arsenal (A) v Burnley	1.35	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	48.00	-17.07	-35.56%
49	18-Feb	Lay Brighton (A) v Sheffield Utd	1.7	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	49.00	-18.07	-36.88%
50	18-Feb	Lay Man Utd (A) v Luton	1.86	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	50.00	-19.07	-38.14%
51	24-Feb	Lay Man City (A) v Bournemouth	1.45	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	51.00	-20.07	-39.35%
52	02-Mar	Lay Liverpool (A) v Forest	1.57	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	52.00	-21.07	-40.52%
53	02-Mar	Lay Villa (A) v Luton	1.73	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	53.00	-22.07	-41.64%
54	04-Mar	Lay Arsenal (A) v Sheff Utd	1.2	1.00	0-6 (Lose)	-1.00	54.00	-23.07	-42.72%

the last 12 would have made a nice accumulator!

12 winners in 54 games tells its own story EWAW

If you'd backed the odds-on away favourites, assuming the back price is 2 ticks lower than the lay prices you have posted, and assuming 2% commission, for £1 each time, your balance would currently stand at +£11.83.

interesting one this weekend, a new entry! - don't usually see fulham as an OOA -

bet 55 lay fulham at sheffield utd at 1.8 to win 1.25

bet 55 is a winner +1.22pts, ending the 12 match losing streak. well done fulham!

5 this weekend, the most this season.. hopefully a couple come in

bet 56 lay man city at palace at 1.33 to win 3.03
bet 57 lay bournemouth at luton at 1.95 to win 1.05
bet 58 lay arsenal at brighton at 1.68 to win 1.47
bet 59 lay liverpool at man utd at 1.69 to win 1.45
bet 60 lay chelsea at sheffield utd at 1.45 to win 2.22

finally some shocks.. +2.63 for the week

bet 56 lost
bet 57 won +1.03
bet 58 lost
bet 59 won +1.42
bet 60 won +2.18

Updated table..

Bet	Date	Event & Selection	Odds	Stake	Result	Event P/L	Tot Staked	Tot p/l	% ROI
				Points		Points	Points	Points
1	11-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Burnley	1.36	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	1.00	-1.00	-100.00%
2	19-Aug	Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves	1.92	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	2.00	-2.00	-100.00%
3	21-Aug	Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace	1.65	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	3.00	-3.00	-100.00%
4	26-Aug	Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth	1.97	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	4.00	-4.00	-100.00%
5	27-Aug	Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	5.00	-5.00	-100.00%
6	01-Sep	Lay West Ham (A) v Luton	1.85	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	6.00	-6.00	-100.00%
7	02-Sep	Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley	1.95	1.00	2-5 (Lose)	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	-100.00%
8	16-Sep	Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves	1.46	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	8.00	-8.00	-100.00%
9	16-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v West Ham	1.54	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	9.00	-9.00	-100.00%
10	16-Sep	Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth	1.8	1.00	0-0 (Win)	1.22	10.00	-7.78	-77.80%
11	17-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton	1.59	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	11.00	-8.78	-79.82%
12	23-Sep	Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley	1.79	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	12.00	-9.78	-81.50%
13	24-Sep	Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd	1.5	1.00	0-8 (Lose)	-1.00	13.00	-10.78	-82.92%
14	30-Sep	Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth	1.57	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	14.00	-11.78	-84.14%
15	30-Sep	Lay Man City (A) v Wolves	1.37	1.00	2-1 (Win)	2.65	15.00	-9.13	-60.87%
16	07-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Luton	1.51	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	16.00	-10.13	-63.31%
17	07-Oct	Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley	1.81	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	17.00	-11.13	-65.47%
18	21-Oct	Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd	1.46	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	18.00	-12.13	-67.39%
19	27-Oct	Lay Spurs (A) v Palace	1.87	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	19.00	-13.13	-69.11%
20	28-Oct	Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves	1.88	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.12	20.00	-12.01	-60.05%
21	29-Oct	Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd	1.73	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	21.00	-13.01	-61.95%
22	05-Nov	Lay Villa (A) v Forest	1.95	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.03	22.00	-11.98	-54.45%
23	05-Nov	Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton	1.26	1.00	1-1 (Win)	3.78	23.00	-8.20	-35.65%
24	11-Nov	Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth	1.77	1.00	2-0 (Win)	1.27	24.00	-6.93	-28.88%
25	12-Nov	Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea	1.8	1.00	4-4 (Win)	1.22	25.00	-5.71	-22.84%
26	25-Nov	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford	1.82	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	26.00	-6.71	-25.81%
27	05-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton	1.24	1.00	3-4 (Lose)	-1.00	27.00	-7.71	-28.56%
28	06-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd	1.22	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	28.00	-8.71	-31.11%
29	06-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Villa	1.76	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.28	29.00	-7.43	-25.62%
30	09-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Palace	1.56	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	30.00	-8.43	-28.10%
31	09-Dec	Lay Brentford (A) v Sheff Utd	1.88	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.12	31.00	-7.31	-23.58%
32	10-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Luton	1.18	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	32.00	-8.31	-25.97%
33	15-Dec	Lay Spurs (A) v Forest	1.79	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	33.00	-9.31	-28.21%
34	23-Dec	Lay Newcastle (A) v Luton	1.71	1.00	1-0 (Win)	1.38	34.00	-7.93	-23.32%
35	26-Dec	Lay Liverpool (A) v Burnley	1.4	1.00	0-2 (Lose)	-1.00	35.00	-8.93	-25.51%
36	27-Dec	Lay Man City (A) v Everton	1.62	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	36.00	-9.93	-27.58%
37	30-Dec	Lay Chelsea (A) v Luton	1.62	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	37.00	-10.93	-29.54%
38	31-Dec	Lay Arsenal (A) v Fulham	1.61	1.00	2-1 (Win)	1.61	38.00	-9.32	-24.53%
39	13-Jan	Lay Man City (A) v Newcastle	1.68	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	39.00	-10.32	-26.46%
40	21-Jan	Lay Liverpool (A) v Bournemouth	1.78	1.00	0-4 (Lose)	-1.00	40.00	-11.32	-28.30%
41	30-Jan	Lay Arsenal (A) v Forest	1.43	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	41.00	-12.32	-30.05%
42	30-Jan	Lay Brighton (A) v Luton	1.78	1.00	4-0 (Win)	1.25	42.00	-11.07	-26.36%
43	03-Feb	Lay Villa (A) v Sheff Utd	1.69	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	43.00	-12.07	-28.07%
44	04-Feb	Lay Man City (A) v Brentford	1.43	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	44.00	-13.07	-29.70%
45	11-Feb	Lay Arsenal (A) v West Ham	1.57	1.00	0-6 (Lose)	-1.00	45.00	-14.07	-31.27%
46	12-Feb	Lay Chelsea (A) v Palace	1.82	1.00	1-3 (Lose)	-1.00	46.00	-15.07	-32.76%
47	17-Feb	Lay Liverpool (A) v Brentford	1.7	1.00	1-4 (Lose)	-1.00	47.00	-16.07	-34.19%
48	17-Feb	Lay Arsenal (A) v Burnley	1.35	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	48.00	-17.07	-35.56%
49	18-Feb	Lay Brighton (A) v Sheffield Utd	1.7	1.00	0-5 (Lose)	-1.00	49.00	-18.07	-36.88%
50	18-Feb	Lay Man Utd (A) v Luton	1.86	1.00	1-2 (Lose)	-1.00	50.00	-19.07	-38.14%
51	24-Feb	Lay Man City (A) v Bournemouth	1.45	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	51.00	-20.07	-39.35%
52	02-Mar	Lay Liverpool (A) v Forest	1.57	1.00	0-1 (Lose)	-1.00	52.00	-21.07	-40.52%
53	02-Mar	Lay Villa (A) v Luton	1.73	1.00	2-3 (Lose)	-1.00	53.00	-22.07	-41.64%
54	04-Mar	Lay Arsenal (A) v Sheff Utd	1.2	1.00	0-6 (Lose)	-1.00	54.00	-23.07	-42.72%
55	30-Mar	Lay Fulham (A) v Sheff Utd	1.8	1.00	3-3 (Win)	1.22	55.00	-21.85	-39.73%
56	06-Apr	Lay Man City (A) v Palace	1.33	1.00	2-4 (Lose)	-1.00	56.00	-22.85	-40.80%
57	06-Apr	Lay Bournemouth (A) v Luton	1.95	1.00	2-1 (Win)	1.03	57.00	-21.82	-38.28%
58	06-Apr	Lay Arsenal (A) v Brighton	1.68	1.00	0-3 (Lose)	-1.00	58.00	-22.82	-39.34%
59	07-Apr	Lay Liverpool (A) v Man Utd	1.69	1.00	2-2 (Win)	1.42	59.00	-21.40	-36.27%
60	07-Apr	Lay Chelsea (A) v Sheffield Utd	1.45	1.00	2-2 (Win)	2.18	60.00	-19.22	-32.03%