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11 Aug 23
16:28
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Date Joined:
14 Jan 06
I’ve decided this will be my project for the season. Will try to lay them all, starting with Man City later today. We’ve seen lots of posts over the years saying what a gold mine it is, so I’m going to track it publicly for the season. I know last year it would have been profitable over the season but I am not convinced that’s always the case. Even if the experiment ends in a loss, there ought to be enough winning bets for it not to be too heavy.
My lays will be to level stakes liability, i.e. Lay-To-Lose 1 Point, not Lay-to-Win 1 point.
I will update the thread with my p/l, including the occasional table, in case Mesmerised looks in
. All my lays will be real bets on Betfair, taking prices available at the time of posting and profits posted will be after my 2% commission. More than likely I won’t catch all possible lays, as some odds-against prices, which are close to evens, will shorten to odds-on near to kick off and I won’t be constantly online but I will get as many as I can. That will swing both ways anyway, if I’m posting some bets a day or two early, as some of those prices will drift, so it should even out enough to still be interesting.
Bet 1 will be a lay of Man City at Burnley tonight but am holding off placing it for now, to see if that current 1.36 comes in a bit again, as people lump on nearer k/o
My lays will be to level stakes liability, i.e. Lay-To-Lose 1 Point, not Lay-to-Win 1 point.
I will update the thread with my p/l, including the occasional table, in case Mesmerised looks in
. All my lays will be real bets on Betfair, taking prices available at the time of posting and profits posted will be after my 2% commission. More than likely I won’t catch all possible lays, as some odds-against prices, which are close to evens, will shorten to odds-on near to kick off and I won’t be constantly online but I will get as many as I can. That will swing both ways anyway, if I’m posting some bets a day or two early, as some of those prices will drift, so it should even out enough to still be interesting.Bet 1 will be a lay of Man City at Burnley tonight but am holding off placing it for now, to see if that current 1.36 comes in a bit again, as people lump on nearer k/o
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there was a good thread a few years ago selectively going after what were thought poor value odds on away shots.
good luck everyone's a winner.
good luck everyone's a winner.
thanks guys
bet 1 is placed.. lay Man City at Burnley at 1.36 - 1pt to win 2.77
bet 1 is placed.. lay Man City at Burnley at 1.36 - 1pt to win 2.77
Laying City against a newly promoted side who 'want to play football' was always going to be a long shot.
I imagine you'll learn a lot over the first half of the season.
I imagine you'll learn a lot over the first half of the season.
of course. I wasn't expecting to win that one but I'm not going to cherry pick the lays on this thread, as otherwise I'll miss lucrative shocks trying to be clever. That much I know from my previous posts/threads, where I was being much more selective. Just going to see where it ends up doing them all for now.
Good luck
My threads started off poorly but early doors
I'd say you'll have more success with these than my bets
My threads started off poorly but early doors
I'd say you'll have more success with these than my bets
thanks SS, not sure but we'll see. two this weekend..
bet 2 lay Brighton at Wolves at 1.92 to win 1.09
bet 3 lay Arsenal at Palace at 1.65 to win 1.54
bet 2 lay Brighton at Wolves at 1.92 to win 1.09
bet 3 lay Arsenal at Palace at 1.65 to win 1.54
no winners yet. two more this weekend..
bet 4 lay Spurs at Bournemouth 1.97 to win 1.03
bet 5 lay City at Sheff Utd at 1.22 to win 4.54
certainly not expecting anything from the 2nd one
bet 4 lay Spurs at Bournemouth 1.97 to win 1.03
bet 5 lay City at Sheff Utd at 1.22 to win 4.54
certainly not expecting anything from the 2nd one
no winners yet. two for this weekend coming
bet 6 lay West Ham at Luton at 1.85 to win 1.18
bet 7 lay Spurs at Burnley at 1.95 to win 1.05
think we might get the first winner with one of these
bet 6 lay West Ham at Luton at 1.85 to win 1.18
bet 7 lay Spurs at Burnley at 1.95 to win 1.05
think we might get the first winner with one of these
7 losses out of 7 so far. Looks like I will have to sink this gold mine shaft quite deep, to reap the promised rewards long term
it will change after the international break with European football on its way for half the league
4 games next weekend are odds on. Liverpool, city, Arsenal and Chelsea.
Must be a good chance one of them will slip up.
Must be a good chance one of them will slip up.
I thought about this also winner.
Noticed last year that one or two long odds-on shots draw when they played away.
Haven't read the whole thread, maybe someone else has mentioned that.
Perhaps you could consider looking for weaknesses.
A team playing in euro comps.
Big players being rested or injured.
Whatever..
Trouble with something like this is, obviously, you need a couple of real shockers to have any hope of profit with this.
But hey, not trying to pee on your parade here, eh?
Good luck to you winner.
Noticed last year that one or two long odds-on shots draw when they played away.
Haven't read the whole thread, maybe someone else has mentioned that.
Perhaps you could consider looking for weaknesses.
A team playing in euro comps.
Big players being rested or injured.
Whatever..
Trouble with something like this is, obviously, you need a couple of real shockers to have any hope of profit with this.
But hey, not trying to pee on your parade here, eh?
Good luck to you winner.
thanks guys. agree on both counts. i'm going to do them all this year, if i can, so it's there for everyone to see, then when people like brassneck tell us what a goldmine it is, we have a reference point. i do agree there are always shocks but by their very nature it's almost impossible to predict where they'll be and this hasn't worked for me in the past. also with them all in one place, we can analyse the prices at the end, to see if further refinement would work, e.g only laying prices
that cut off half my reply..?
was going on to say only laying prices below 1.9 for example.
dragon i'm looking forward to next weekend already.
bet 8 lay liverpool at wolves at 1.46 to win 2.17
bet 9 lay man city at west ham at 1.54 to win 1.85
bet 10 lay arsenal at everton at 1.59 to win 1.69
bet 11 lay chelsea at bournemouth at 1.8 to win 1.25
was going on to say only laying prices below 1.9 for example.
dragon i'm looking forward to next weekend already.
bet 8 lay liverpool at wolves at 1.46 to win 2.17
bet 9 lay man city at west ham at 1.54 to win 1.85
bet 10 lay arsenal at everton at 1.59 to win 1.69
bet 11 lay chelsea at bournemouth at 1.8 to win 1.25
well I have to say even I was expecting more than one win in eleven when starting this but there we have it. 1.22 pts profit from the Chelsea lay, all the rest losers. Chronologically I had bets 10 & 11 the wrong way round. Will post my first update in table form in a mo, for those who like more visuals
| Bet | Date | Event & Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | Event P/L | Tot Staked | Tot p/l | % ROI |
| 1 | 11-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Burnley | 1.36 | £1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £1.00 | -100.00% | -100.00% |
| 2 | 19-Aug | Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves | 1.92 | £1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £2.00 | -200.00% | -100.00% |
| 3 | 21-Aug | Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace | 1.65 | £1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £3.00 | -300.00% | -100.00% |
| 4 | 26-Aug | Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth | 1.97 | £1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £4.00 | -400.00% | -100.00% |
| 5 | 27-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | £1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £5.00 | -500.00% | -100.00% |
| 6 | 01-Sep | Lay West Ham (A) v Luton | 1.85 | £1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £6.00 | -600.00% | -100.00% |
| 7 | 02-Sep | Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley | 1.95 | £1.00 | 2-5 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £7.00 | -700.00% | -100.00% |
| 8 | 16-Sep | Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves | 1.46 | £1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £8.00 | -800.00% | -100.00% |
| 9 | 16-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v West Ham | 1.54 | £1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £9.00 | -900.00% | -100.00% |
| 10 | 16-Sep | Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth | 1.8 | £1.00 | 0-0 (Win) | £1.22 | £10.00 | -778.00% | -77.80% |
| 11 | 17-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton | 1.59 | £1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -£1.00 | £11.00 | -878.00% | -79.82% |
maybe this better..
| Bet | Date | Event & Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | Event P/L | Tot Staked | Tot p/l | % ROI |
| 1 | 11-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Burnley | 1.36 | £1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1 | 1 | -1 | -100.00% |
| 2 | 19-Aug | Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves | 1.92 | £1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1 | 2 | -2 | -100.00% |
| 3 | 21-Aug | Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace | 1.65 | £1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1 | 3 | -3 | -100.00% |
| 4 | 26-Aug | Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth | 1.97 | £1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -1 | 4 | -4 | -100.00% |
| 5 | 27-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | £1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1 | 5 | -5 | -100.00% |
| 6 | 01-Sep | Lay West Ham (A) v Luton | 1.85 | £1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1 | 6 | -6 | -100.00% |
| 7 | 02-Sep | Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley | 1.95 | £1.00 | 2-5 (Lose) | -1 | 7 | -7 | -100.00% |
| 8 | 16-Sep | Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves | 1.46 | £1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1 | 8 | -8 | -100.00% |
| 9 | 16-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v West Ham | 1.54 | £1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1 | 9 | -9 | -100.00% |
| 10 | 16-Sep | Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth | 1.8 | £1.00 | 0-0 (Win) | 1.22 | 10 | -7.78 | -77.80% |
| 11 | 17-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton | 1.59 | £1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1 | 11 | -8.78 | -79.82% |
two this weekend coming..
bet 12 lay Man Utd at Burnley at 1.79 1pt to win 1.26
bet 13 lay Newcastle at Sheffield Utd at 1.5 1pt to win 2.0
bet 12 lay Man Utd at Burnley at 1.79 1pt to win 1.26
bet 13 lay Newcastle at Sheffield Utd at 1.5 1pt to win 2.0
it's interesting. I won't abandon, because I'm interested to track it properly. Is this an unusual season? and is that because there's even more gulf in class between the likes of Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd versus the big boys, compared to previous years? I wonder.
I've seen worse ideas posted on here, but this one hasn't been consistently successful. Here's how it would have played out in previous seasons. You may also be a little optimistic on the prices. For example this season I had Chelsea available to back at 1.83 v Bournemouth so a lay at 1.8 would have been tricky. My calculations use 1.86 for this one.
2000-01 29 2.68
2001-02 37 -13.41
2002-03 37 0.71
2003-04 42 -3.83
2004-05 41 -9.10
2005-06 47 0.37
2006-07 48 -6.94
2007-08 56 -6.46
2008-09 55 -16.95
2009-10 66 23.42
2010-11 49 17.70
2011-12 63 4.89
2012-13 58 -5.60
2013-14 64 -7.47
2014-15 58 -1.86
2015-16 47 6.54
2016-17 77 -13.06
2017-18 81 -1.10
2018-19 75 -12.89
2019-20 72 11.24
2020-21 76 6.59
2021-22 71 -9.83
2022-23 70 19.98
2023-24 11 -8.84
Total 1330 -23.19
2000-01 29 2.68
2001-02 37 -13.41
2002-03 37 0.71
2003-04 42 -3.83
2004-05 41 -9.10
2005-06 47 0.37
2006-07 48 -6.94
2007-08 56 -6.46
2008-09 55 -16.95
2009-10 66 23.42
2010-11 49 17.70
2011-12 63 4.89
2012-13 58 -5.60
2013-14 64 -7.47
2014-15 58 -1.86
2015-16 47 6.54
2016-17 77 -13.06
2017-18 81 -1.10
2018-19 75 -12.89
2019-20 72 11.24
2020-21 76 6.59
2021-22 71 -9.83
2022-23 70 19.98
2023-24 11 -8.84
Total 1330 -23.19
that's really interesting. the best years would have been 2009-2012 when forum was still buzzing.
I knew it would have been profitable last year from my own records but I didn't think it would always be. That's how this all started, a pre season discussion about betting approaches. I did get the 1.8 lay on Chelsea, it's maybe a bit lucky with the price timing but plenty of my other picks moved against me, last year and year before, so it's swings and roundabouts and will even out enough over time, to still have the same conclusion, in my view. I'm fine if this experiment proves a loss maker, we see plenty of people claiming these lays are a constant gold mine, it will be good to have something solid to refer to.
I knew it would have been profitable last year from my own records but I didn't think it would always be. That's how this all started, a pre season discussion about betting approaches. I did get the 1.8 lay on Chelsea, it's maybe a bit lucky with the price timing but plenty of my other picks moved against me, last year and year before, so it's swings and roundabouts and will even out enough over time, to still have the same conclusion, in my view. I'm fine if this experiment proves a loss maker, we see plenty of people claiming these lays are a constant gold mine, it will be good to have something solid to refer to.
Discussions about betting approaches are what this forum should be about, so I'm all in favour of threads like this one.
Have you considered waiting until December before trying this? Some interesting results here: https://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2023/09/winter-gold-mine.html
Have you considered waiting until December before trying this? Some interesting results here: https://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2023/09/winter-gold-mine.html
Discussions about betting approaches are what this forum should be about, so I'm all in favour of threads like this one.
I agree.
To put my comments in context, I have 8 years worth of soccer data covering several countries and I have a lot of experience in relating percentage chance to odds, and how the markets change/decay in running.
The market makers have more data, more program analysis availability, and super fast algorithms. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge, and the way the markets are, means that the margin between the back and lay sides makes it more difficult still.
I have said this on here many times, “Data is random”. If something occurs 50% of the time, the sequence will not be W, L, W, L, W, L etc. The winning and losing sequences over time are random, as the results of the OP’s strategy are showing.
I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters.
I agree.
To put my comments in context, I have 8 years worth of soccer data covering several countries and I have a lot of experience in relating percentage chance to odds, and how the markets change/decay in running.
The market makers have more data, more program analysis availability, and super fast algorithms. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge, and the way the markets are, means that the margin between the back and lay sides makes it more difficult still.
I have said this on here many times, “Data is random”. If something occurs 50% of the time, the sequence will not be W, L, W, L, W, L etc. The winning and losing sequences over time are random, as the results of the OP’s strategy are showing.
I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters.
You're talking about variance, which is a very important concept to understand. If something occurs 50% of the time as in your example, then over 1,000 events it will almost certainly (99.71%) lose six times in a row with a greater than 5% chance of a losing run of 13 in that time. The variance will be higher when laying odds-on, but unless the method has +EV, it's doomed.
Can you clarify your last sentences - "I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters." ?
Can you clarify your last sentences - "I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters." ?
@cpfc4me, I'm honoured to have piqued your interest with my thread
I have had various thoughts on the timing. This thread aside, most seasons I start off well, give myself the impression I have a good eye for value, then hit the rails and give most of it back around Late November early December through to the end of January and then start to do better as the season ends, before we get to the tail end where teams give up and results can be odd. I had a profitable 2021-22 but a loss making 2022-23, so I feel like I can do it but last year proved not consistently but I've long thought that something happens mid season that I can't put my finger on.
If there's something to be said for only doing these odds on lays in the second half of the season, I might see that later on, if I keep this up, which I do still intend to do. I also wonder about excluding Man City and newly promoted sides, which I note you've analysed in your blog but sometimes that's where the lucrative shocks come from, so initially my instinct was to include all, so as not to miss out. In any case I wasn't doing this particular thread with real a expectation of a profit but more to track it all publicly, as stated in my OP. As I've already said though, I'm surprised it's been as bad as it has, first 9 bets losers and 12 out of 13 losers overall.
RE Rigsby's post I suspect he's alluding to the fact there's no 3rd option, i.e the draw, overs/unders has only 2 selections, where match odds has 3 outcomes/prices to track.
I have had various thoughts on the timing. This thread aside, most seasons I start off well, give myself the impression I have a good eye for value, then hit the rails and give most of it back around Late November early December through to the end of January and then start to do better as the season ends, before we get to the tail end where teams give up and results can be odd. I had a profitable 2021-22 but a loss making 2022-23, so I feel like I can do it but last year proved not consistently but I've long thought that something happens mid season that I can't put my finger on.
If there's something to be said for only doing these odds on lays in the second half of the season, I might see that later on, if I keep this up, which I do still intend to do. I also wonder about excluding Man City and newly promoted sides, which I note you've analysed in your blog but sometimes that's where the lucrative shocks come from, so initially my instinct was to include all, so as not to miss out. In any case I wasn't doing this particular thread with real a expectation of a profit but more to track it all publicly, as stated in my OP. As I've already said though, I'm surprised it's been as bad as it has, first 9 bets losers and 12 out of 13 losers overall.
RE Rigsby's post I suspect he's alluding to the fact there's no 3rd option, i.e the draw, overs/unders has only 2 selections, where match odds has 3 outcomes/prices to track.
Can you clarify your last sentences - "I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters." ?
When I know that the odds and stats are in my favour I back another goal in play at the appropriate time.
Simply, there is another goal or not. It does not matter which team scores the goal, which player scores the goal, what the final score is, whether the game ends H, A, or D. If a goal is scored I win, if not I lose. Once the bet is placed I can walk away from it and do something else.
Additionally, my strategies vary between each half, because the markets are different.
I do not watch the game, have any interest in who wins, or look to see how many SOT’s (it only takes one shot to score a goal). I prefer non UK games because I have no knowledge baggage which may psychologically affect my decision making.
When I know that the odds and stats are in my favour I back another goal in play at the appropriate time.
Simply, there is another goal or not. It does not matter which team scores the goal, which player scores the goal, what the final score is, whether the game ends H, A, or D. If a goal is scored I win, if not I lose. Once the bet is placed I can walk away from it and do something else.
Additionally, my strategies vary between each half, because the markets are different.
I do not watch the game, have any interest in who wins, or look to see how many SOT’s (it only takes one shot to score a goal). I prefer non UK games because I have no knowledge baggage which may psychologically affect my decision making.
There's no fixture where you'd think 'no, i'll pass on that one' and no assessment of price/value whatsoever?
@hulk lol yes I thought about that too imagine backing them all in an acca/perm
@lurka yes that's the point of this thread, not to try to cherry pick. these are not my tips/selections, just me assessing whether there's any truth to the rumour that it's a profitable approach. Having said that, the ones I would have picked wouldn't have been winning bets anyway, with the exception of Chelsea at Bournemouth. I did it the other way the last two years with mixed results and this is a different project.
imagine backing them all in an acca/perm@lurka yes that's the point of this thread, not to try to cherry pick. these are not my tips/selections, just me assessing whether there's any truth to the rumour that it's a profitable approach. Having said that, the ones I would have picked wouldn't have been winning bets anyway, with the exception of Chelsea at Bournemouth. I did it the other way the last two years with mixed results and this is a different project.
two more this weekend coming
bet 14 lay Arsenal at Bournemouth at 1.57, 1pt to win 1.75
bet 15 lay Man City at Wolves at 1.37, 1pt to win 2.70
bet 14 lay Arsenal at Bournemouth at 1.57, 1pt to win 1.75
bet 15 lay Man City at Wolves at 1.37, 1pt to win 2.70
Away teams have been odds-on to win at AFC Bournemouth in the EPL 31 times, and lays would have amounted to a loss of 2.55 units. +0.55u when laying Arsenal.
For Wolves, it's 38 matches and a loss of 0.31u. When laying Man City, +1.63u.
For Wolves, it's 38 matches and a loss of 0.31u. When laying Man City, +1.63u.
well we got another winner and not the one we would have expected. +2.65 points from bet 15. Updated table to follow
| Bet | Date | Event & Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | Event P/L | Tot Staked | Tot p/l | % ROI |
| Points | Points | Points | Points | ||||||
| 1 | 11-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Burnley | 1.36 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -100.00% |
| 2 | 19-Aug | Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves | 1.92 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 | -100.00% |
| 3 | 21-Aug | Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace | 1.65 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 3.00 | -3.00 | -100.00% |
| 4 | 26-Aug | Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth | 1.97 | 1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 4.00 | -4.00 | -100.00% |
| 5 | 27-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 5.00 | -5.00 | -100.00% |
| 6 | 01-Sep | Lay West Ham (A) v Luton | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 6.00 | -6.00 | -100.00% |
| 7 | 02-Sep | Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley | 1.95 | 1.00 | 2-5 (Lose) | -1.00 | 7.00 | -7.00 | -100.00% |
| 8 | 16-Sep | Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 8.00 | -8.00 | -100.00% |
| 9 | 16-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v West Ham | 1.54 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 9.00 | -9.00 | -100.00% |
| 10 | 16-Sep | Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth | 1.8 | 1.00 | 0-0 (Win) | 1.22 | 10.00 | -7.78 | -77.80% |
| 11 | 17-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton | 1.59 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 11.00 | -8.78 | -79.82% |
| 12 | 23-Sep | Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley | 1.79 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 12.00 | -9.78 | -81.50% |
| 13 | 24-Sep | Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.5 | 1.00 | 0-8 (Lose) | -1.00 | 13.00 | -10.78 | -82.92% |
| 14 | 30-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth | 1.57 | 1.00 | 0-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 14.00 | -11.78 | -84.14% |
| 15 | 30-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v Wolves | 1.37 | 1.00 | 2-1 (Win) | 2.65 | 15.00 | -9.13 | -60.87% |
two this weekend
bet 16 lay Spurs at Luton at 1.51 1pt to win 1.96
bet 17 lay Chelsea at Burnley 1.81 1pt to win 1.23
bet 16 lay Spurs at Luton at 1.51 1pt to win 1.96
bet 17 lay Chelsea at Burnley 1.81 1pt to win 1.23
yes, I assumed that was a joke but it's gone over my head I must admit
Brentford odds on at Man U would definitely be a lay
well done Brentford layers but as far as this thread goes, no more gold was mined today
bets 16 & 17 lost
bets 16 & 17 lost
I looked at this strategy in the Bundesliga (and named it BundesLAYga) and since 2012-23, the ROI in Bundesliga.1 is 3% but in Bundesliga.2 it's 22%
+29.35units from 134 bets - worth a look IMO
+29.35units from 134 bets - worth a look IMO
I read somewhere, backing odds on away in serie A would produce a profit in 10 out of the last 11 seasons.
Since 2012-13, this has a profit of 51.43 units from 678 bets, an ROI of 7.6%. Not bad. Only two losing seasons in 11, but small losses in those two seasons 2014-15 -2.19u and 1015-16 - 0.38u.
2015-16 obvs.
For this season so far, 14 matches 10 winners +2.78
For this season so far, 14 matches 10 winners +2.78
one for the weekend coming, bet 18 lay man utd at sheffield utd at 1.46 - 1pt to win 2.17
i KNOW i'm small change in this game but I have spent many a long hour number crunching, like Rigsby I have absolutely no interest in who wins, and I totally get what he says about the dangers of baggage psychologically affecting decision making. Sometimes I'll have a play in the championship or div 1 but never look at the English Prem.
Betting on there being another goal, don't the odds get a bit skinny Rigsby?
Just wondering.
Maybe you only play in certain games.
None of my business of course and good luck to you.
I WOULD just like to make one suggestion e.a.w.
Respectfully of course.
Might it not be better to have a set win amount than a set lay-stake.
ie. Lay to win a set amount.
The lower the odds you lay, the higher you stake and the more you win.
Just a thought.
Betting on there being another goal, don't the odds get a bit skinny Rigsby?
Just wondering.
Maybe you only play in certain games.
None of my business of course and good luck to you.
I WOULD just like to make one suggestion e.a.w.
Respectfully of course.
Might it not be better to have a set win amount than a set lay-stake.
ie. Lay to win a set amount.
The lower the odds you lay, the higher you stake and the more you win.
Just a thought.
And the few times I've noticed big team "not winning" necessarily but not "losing".
They really were hotpots, Something like 1.2 and yes. it happens.
And like with Snipers BTTS ACCA plan, it's those shockers that bump up the winnings.
And maybe, I don't know, might there be some chance of greening up when the minnow goes one-up.
Although at a £1 pound stake, probably not a consideration.
Waiting a while might just help the market to move a bit.
Not wishing to question your stake here.
I know how it feels to think you hit on something and then watch your hard-earned go down the toilet.
Been there, done that.
They really were hotpots, Something like 1.2 and yes. it happens.
And like with Snipers BTTS ACCA plan, it's those shockers that bump up the winnings.
And maybe, I don't know, might there be some chance of greening up when the minnow goes one-up.
Although at a £1 pound stake, probably not a consideration.
Waiting a while might just help the market to move a bit.
Not wishing to question your stake here.
I know how it feels to think you hit on something and then watch your hard-earned go down the toilet.
Been there, done that.
I know what you're saying about waiting and usually favourites shorten, though not always, so yeah I've laid man u a bit early but I work most weekends, so have to put the bets on early. I mentioned the timing in my op. I don't think the little movements here will be the difference between a winning or losing thread overall.
I'm not thinking that I hit on something, far from it, I just want to have it all out in the open. cpfc4me has already got more tracking data than I do, on his blog but I like the idea of having a whole season here on the forum, to refer to, if I can keep it up.
What you're saying about the staking is just another way of doing it. This way my liability is the same every time, so I win more when the shorter odds are turned over. Your way I would only win the same flat stakes amount for every successful lay, though I'd also lose less, when they are unsuccessful.
Greening up won't prove whether there is any value in the original lay prices, so I am not doing that for the purposes of this thread. These challenges have been about the pre k/o prices, not the ability to green out in play. That would be a completely different notion, i.e trading prices. You'd have to red out when the favourite went one up, to balance it out, or you're just giving away potential profit on all the +ve ones and not reducing any losses on the -ve ones.
I'm not thinking that I hit on something, far from it, I just want to have it all out in the open. cpfc4me has already got more tracking data than I do, on his blog but I like the idea of having a whole season here on the forum, to refer to, if I can keep it up.
What you're saying about the staking is just another way of doing it. This way my liability is the same every time, so I win more when the shorter odds are turned over. Your way I would only win the same flat stakes amount for every successful lay, though I'd also lose less, when they are unsuccessful.
Greening up won't prove whether there is any value in the original lay prices, so I am not doing that for the purposes of this thread. These challenges have been about the pre k/o prices, not the ability to green out in play. That would be a completely different notion, i.e trading prices. You'd have to red out when the favourite went one up, to balance it out, or you're just giving away potential profit on all the +ve ones and not reducing any losses on the -ve ones.
@ericster
Thank you for positive comments.
It is the simplicity as well. For example, back in the day, the “experts” said lay the draw and green at the goal with all sorts of caveats. Back +0.5 wins when/if a goal is scored and there is no hassle of sitting in front of a screen waiting for a goal, and it does not matter whether the fav or the dog scores. If it is the dog, the cash out will be small with the lay/back draw system. Also I don’t have to wait for the market to offer an acceptable cash out price.
Re Odds:
You are correct that the odds can be skinny, but with decay they lengthen throughout the game. In most cases the decay is mathematically predictable, so I can place my bet in play at the odds I expect them to be at a particular time in the game. If a goal is scored before that point, the unmatched bet is automatically cancelled with no loss. In the leagues I play in, I know that 93/94% of all games will have at least one goal (1.07), so you can see why they are “skinny”.
Yes, I do only play in certain games. I have my price which is based on my data.
FWIW, the average time for the first goal is circa 30 mins, and there are more goals in second half than first.
An important aspect about decay: suppose I price a bet pre kick off at 1.24, but it is only available to back at 1.20, I will not back it at 1.24 in play after decay, because it will be the wrong price. It should be 1.29, and therefore 1.24 at that time is poor value.
I hope I have given you something to think about.
Thank you for positive comments.
It is the simplicity as well. For example, back in the day, the “experts” said lay the draw and green at the goal with all sorts of caveats. Back +0.5 wins when/if a goal is scored and there is no hassle of sitting in front of a screen waiting for a goal, and it does not matter whether the fav or the dog scores. If it is the dog, the cash out will be small with the lay/back draw system. Also I don’t have to wait for the market to offer an acceptable cash out price.
Re Odds:
You are correct that the odds can be skinny, but with decay they lengthen throughout the game. In most cases the decay is mathematically predictable, so I can place my bet in play at the odds I expect them to be at a particular time in the game. If a goal is scored before that point, the unmatched bet is automatically cancelled with no loss. In the leagues I play in, I know that 93/94% of all games will have at least one goal (1.07), so you can see why they are “skinny”.
Yes, I do only play in certain games. I have my price which is based on my data.
FWIW, the average time for the first goal is circa 30 mins, and there are more goals in second half than first.
An important aspect about decay: suppose I price a bet pre kick off at 1.24, but it is only available to back at 1.20, I will not back it at 1.24 in play after decay, because it will be the wrong price. It should be 1.29, and therefore 1.24 at that time is poor value.
I hope I have given you something to think about.
Rigsby :
"Value", errr yeah, that old chestnut. Or should I say "hot potato". Enough said I think.
I get what you say about decay. Have watched enough games, the full 90 , to be fully aware of what you're saying, and yes, you've given me food for thought.
I trade in-play and the numbers involved profit-wise is usually around 1.30. I really am small time.
There isn't much room for error is there.
Thanks for the post Rigsby.
"Value", errr yeah, that old chestnut. Or should I say "hot potato". Enough said I think.
I get what you say about decay. Have watched enough games, the full 90 , to be fully aware of what you're saying, and yes, you've given me food for thought.
I trade in-play and the numbers involved profit-wise is usually around 1.30. I really am small time.
There isn't much room for error is there.
Thanks for the post Rigsby.
bet 18 lost. puts the project minus 12.13 pts after week 9
there were opportunities for greening there as well, as it was 1-1 for a good while but that's not what I'm tracking here but it's an idea... if you had clear in and out points. Not my area of expertise and I wouldn't be able to follow enough of them in play to be really into that but food for thought.
there were opportunities for greening there as well, as it was 1-1 for a good while but that's not what I'm tracking here but it's an idea... if you had clear in and out points. Not my area of expertise and I wouldn't be able to follow enough of them in play to be really into that but food for thought.
Oct 22, 2023 -- 2:20AM, everyone's a winner wrote:
bet 18 lost. puts the project minus 12.13 pts after week 9there were opportunities for greening there as well, as it was 1-1 for a good while but that's not what I'm tracking here but it's an idea... if you had clear in and out points. Not my area of expertise and I wouldn't be able to follow enough of them in play to be really into that but food for thought.
Yeahhh, I know.
I like the in-play, playing with numbers, y'know ?
And I hate watching a green go down the toilet.
BUT...
I often find myself thinking if only I'd taken the profit, If I could have just waited a few minutes. 
Does your head in.
Rigsby says about percentages but nothing is 100% is it.
They slip through the net and I try not to let that happen.
Go in earlier, lay a bigger price, and again, time after time, I sit and watch the red c/o increase as the odds I've layed shorten.
If Rigsby doing okay with how he's operating, and with what I know of the in-play markets, or rather what I like to THINK I know,I take my hat off to him, I really do.
three this weekend coming..
bet 19 lay Spurs at Palace at 1.87 - 1pt to win 1.15
bet 20 lay Newcastle at Wolves at 1.88 - 1pt to win 1.14
bet 21 lay Man City at Man Utd at 1.73 - 1pt to win 1.35
bet 19 lay Spurs at Palace at 1.87 - 1pt to win 1.15
bet 20 lay Newcastle at Wolves at 1.88 - 1pt to win 1.14
bet 21 lay Man City at Man Utd at 1.73 - 1pt to win 1.35
bet 19 lost
bet 20 won +1.12 after commission
bet 21 lost
updated table below
bet 20 won +1.12 after commission
bet 21 lost
updated table below
| Bet | Date | Event & Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | Event P/L | Tot Staked | Tot p/l | % ROI |
| Points | Points | Points | Points | ||||||
| 1 | 11-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Burnley | 1.36 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -100.00% |
| 2 | 19-Aug | Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves | 1.92 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 | -100.00% |
| 3 | 21-Aug | Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace | 1.65 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 3.00 | -3.00 | -100.00% |
| 4 | 26-Aug | Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth | 1.97 | 1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 4.00 | -4.00 | -100.00% |
| 5 | 27-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 5.00 | -5.00 | -100.00% |
| 6 | 01-Sep | Lay West Ham (A) v Luton | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 6.00 | -6.00 | -100.00% |
| 7 | 02-Sep | Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley | 1.95 | 1.00 | 2-5 (Lose) | -1.00 | 7.00 | -7.00 | -100.00% |
| 8 | 16-Sep | Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 8.00 | -8.00 | -100.00% |
| 9 | 16-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v West Ham | 1.54 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 9.00 | -9.00 | -100.00% |
| 10 | 16-Sep | Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth | 1.8 | 1.00 | 0-0 (Win) | 1.22 | 10.00 | -7.78 | -77.80% |
| 11 | 17-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton | 1.59 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 11.00 | -8.78 | -79.82% |
| 12 | 23-Sep | Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley | 1.79 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 12.00 | -9.78 | -81.50% |
| 13 | 24-Sep | Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.5 | 1.00 | 0-8 (Lose) | -1.00 | 13.00 | -10.78 | -82.92% |
| 14 | 30-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth | 1.57 | 1.00 | 0-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 14.00 | -11.78 | -84.14% |
| 15 | 30-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v Wolves | 1.37 | 1.00 | 2-1 (Win) | 2.65 | 15.00 | -9.13 | -60.87% |
| 16 | 07-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Luton | 1.51 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 16.00 | -10.13 | -63.31% |
| 17 | 07-Oct | Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley | 1.81 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 17.00 | -11.13 | -65.47% |
| 18 | 21-Oct | Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 18.00 | -12.13 | -67.39% |
| 19 | 27-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Palace | 1.87 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 19.00 | -13.13 | -69.11% |
| 20 | 28-Oct | Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves | 1.88 | 1.00 | 2-2 (Win) | 1.12 | 20.00 | -12.01 | -60.05% |
| 21 | 29-Oct | Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd | 1.73 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 21.00 | -13.01 | -61.95% |
Bet 22 lay villa at forest at 1.95 to win 1.05
Bet 23 lay Liverpool at Luton at 1.26 to win 3.86
Bet 23 lay Liverpool at Luton at 1.26 to win 3.86
bet 22 won 1.03
bet 23 won 3.78
Overall minus 8.2pts now updated table below..
bet 23 won 3.78
Overall minus 8.2pts now updated table below..
| Bet | Date | Event & Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | Event P/L | Tot Staked | Tot p/l | % ROI |
| Points | Points | Points | Points | ||||||
| 1 | 11-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Burnley | 1.36 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -100.00% |
| 2 | 19-Aug | Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves | 1.92 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 | -100.00% |
| 3 | 21-Aug | Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace | 1.65 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 3.00 | -3.00 | -100.00% |
| 4 | 26-Aug | Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth | 1.97 | 1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 4.00 | -4.00 | -100.00% |
| 5 | 27-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 5.00 | -5.00 | -100.00% |
| 6 | 01-Sep | Lay West Ham (A) v Luton | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 6.00 | -6.00 | -100.00% |
| 7 | 02-Sep | Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley | 1.95 | 1.00 | 2-5 (Lose) | -1.00 | 7.00 | -7.00 | -100.00% |
| 8 | 16-Sep | Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 8.00 | -8.00 | -100.00% |
| 9 | 16-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v West Ham | 1.54 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 9.00 | -9.00 | -100.00% |
| 10 | 16-Sep | Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth | 1.8 | 1.00 | 0-0 (Win) | 1.22 | 10.00 | -7.78 | -77.80% |
| 11 | 17-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton | 1.59 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 11.00 | -8.78 | -79.82% |
| 12 | 23-Sep | Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley | 1.79 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 12.00 | -9.78 | -81.50% |
| 13 | 24-Sep | Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.5 | 1.00 | 0-8 (Lose) | -1.00 | 13.00 | -10.78 | -82.92% |
| 14 | 30-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth | 1.57 | 1.00 | 0-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 14.00 | -11.78 | -84.14% |
| 15 | 30-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v Wolves | 1.37 | 1.00 | 2-1 (Win) | 2.65 | 15.00 | -9.13 | -60.87% |
| 16 | 07-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Luton | 1.51 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 16.00 | -10.13 | -63.31% |
| 17 | 07-Oct | Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley | 1.81 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 17.00 | -11.13 | -65.47% |
| 18 | 21-Oct | Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 18.00 | -12.13 | -67.39% |
| 19 | 27-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Palace | 1.87 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 19.00 | -13.13 | -69.11% |
| 20 | 28-Oct | Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves | 1.88 | 1.00 | 2-2 (Win) | 1.12 | 20.00 | -12.01 | -60.05% |
| 21 | 29-Oct | Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd | 1.73 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 21.00 | -13.01 | -61.95% |
| 22 | 05-Nov | Lay Villa (A) v Forest | 1.05 | 1.00 | 2-0 (Win) | 1.03 | 22.00 | -11.98 | -54.45% |
| 23 | 05-Nov | Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton | 1.26 | 1.00 | 1-1 (Win) | 3.78 | 23.00 | -8.20 | -35.65% |
bet 24 lay newcastle at bournemouth at 1.77 to win 1.3pts
bet 25 lay man city at chelsea at 1.8 to win 1.25pts
bet 25 lay man city at chelsea at 1.8 to win 1.25pts
bet 24 won 1.27pts
bet 25 won 1.22pts
overall minus 5.71 going into international break 3. updated table below
bet 25 won 1.22pts
overall minus 5.71 going into international break 3. updated table below
| Bet | Date | Event & Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | Event P/L | Tot Staked | Tot p/l | % ROI |
| Points | Points | Points | Points | ||||||
| 1 | 11-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Burnley | 1.36 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -100.00% |
| 2 | 19-Aug | Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves | 1.92 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 | -100.00% |
| 3 | 21-Aug | Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace | 1.65 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 3.00 | -3.00 | -100.00% |
| 4 | 26-Aug | Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth | 1.97 | 1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 4.00 | -4.00 | -100.00% |
| 5 | 27-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 5.00 | -5.00 | -100.00% |
| 6 | 01-Sep | Lay West Ham (A) v Luton | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 6.00 | -6.00 | -100.00% |
| 7 | 02-Sep | Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley | 1.95 | 1.00 | 2-5 (Lose) | -1.00 | 7.00 | -7.00 | -100.00% |
| 8 | 16-Sep | Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 8.00 | -8.00 | -100.00% |
| 9 | 16-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v West Ham | 1.54 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 9.00 | -9.00 | -100.00% |
| 10 | 16-Sep | Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth | 1.8 | 1.00 | 0-0 (Win) | 1.22 | 10.00 | -7.78 | -77.80% |
| 11 | 17-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton | 1.59 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 11.00 | -8.78 | -79.82% |
| 12 | 23-Sep | Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley | 1.79 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 12.00 | -9.78 | -81.50% |
| 13 | 24-Sep | Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.5 | 1.00 | 0-8 (Lose) | -1.00 | 13.00 | -10.78 | -82.92% |
| 14 | 30-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth | 1.57 | 1.00 | 0-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 14.00 | -11.78 | -84.14% |
| 15 | 30-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v Wolves | 1.37 | 1.00 | 2-1 (Win) | 2.65 | 15.00 | -9.13 | -60.87% |
| 16 | 07-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Luton | 1.51 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 16.00 | -10.13 | -63.31% |
| 17 | 07-Oct | Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley | 1.81 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 17.00 | -11.13 | -65.47% |
| 18 | 21-Oct | Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 18.00 | -12.13 | -67.39% |
| 19 | 27-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Palace | 1.87 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 19.00 | -13.13 | -69.11% |
| 20 | 28-Oct | Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves | 1.88 | 1.00 | 2-2 (Win) | 1.12 | 20.00 | -12.01 | -60.05% |
| 21 | 29-Oct | Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd | 1.73 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 21.00 | -13.01 | -61.95% |
| 22 | 05-Nov | Lay Villa (A) v Forest | 1.05 | 1.00 | 2-0 (Win) | 1.03 | 22.00 | -11.98 | -54.45% |
| 23 | 05-Nov | Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton | 1.26 | 1.00 | 1-1 (Win) | 3.78 | 23.00 | -8.20 | -35.65% |
| 24 | 11-Nov | Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth | 1.77 | 1.00 | 2-0 (Win) | 1.27 | 24.00 | -6.93 | -28.88% |
| 25 | 12-Nov | Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea | 1.8 | 1.00 | 4-4 (Win) | 1.22 | 25.00 | -5.71 | -22.84% |
bet 26 lay arsenal at brentford at 1.82 to win 1.22
bet 27 lay arsenal at luton at 1.24 to win 4.16pts
bet 28 lay liverpool at sheffield utd at 1.22 to win 4.54 pts
bet 29 lay man city at villa at 1.76 to win 1.31pts
bet 28 lay liverpool at sheffield utd at 1.22 to win 4.54 pts
bet 29 lay man city at villa at 1.76 to win 1.31pts
bet 27 lost - Luton so close to holding on!
bet 28 lost
bet 29 won +1.28,
overall minus 7.43pts updated table below
bet 28 lost
bet 29 won +1.28,
overall minus 7.43pts updated table below
| Bet | Date | Event & Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | Event P/L | Tot Staked | Tot p/l | % ROI |
| Points | Points | Points | Points | ||||||
| 1 | 11-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Burnley | 1.36 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -100.00% |
| 2 | 19-Aug | Lay Brighton (A) v Wolves | 1.92 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 | -100.00% |
| 3 | 21-Aug | Lay Arsenal (A) v Palace | 1.65 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 3.00 | -3.00 | -100.00% |
| 4 | 26-Aug | Lay Spurs (A) v Bournemouth | 1.97 | 1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 4.00 | -4.00 | -100.00% |
| 5 | 27-Aug | Lay Man City (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 5.00 | -5.00 | -100.00% |
| 6 | 01-Sep | Lay West Ham (A) v Luton | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 6.00 | -6.00 | -100.00% |
| 7 | 02-Sep | Lay Spurs (A) v Burnley | 1.95 | 1.00 | 2-5 (Lose) | -1.00 | 7.00 | -7.00 | -100.00% |
| 8 | 16-Sep | Lay Liverpool (A) v Wolves | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 8.00 | -8.00 | -100.00% |
| 9 | 16-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v West Ham | 1.54 | 1.00 | 1-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 9.00 | -9.00 | -100.00% |
| 10 | 16-Sep | Lay Chelsea (A) v Bournemouth | 1.8 | 1.00 | 0-0 (Win) | 1.22 | 10.00 | -7.78 | -77.80% |
| 11 | 17-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Everton | 1.59 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 11.00 | -8.78 | -79.82% |
| 12 | 23-Sep | Lay Man Utd (A) v Burnley | 1.79 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 12.00 | -9.78 | -81.50% |
| 13 | 24-Sep | Lay Newcastle (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.5 | 1.00 | 0-8 (Lose) | -1.00 | 13.00 | -10.78 | -82.92% |
| 14 | 30-Sep | Lay Arsenal (A) v Bournemouth | 1.57 | 1.00 | 0-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 14.00 | -11.78 | -84.14% |
| 15 | 30-Sep | Lay Man City (A) v Wolves | 1.37 | 1.00 | 2-1 (Win) | 2.65 | 15.00 | -9.13 | -60.87% |
| 16 | 07-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Luton | 1.51 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 16.00 | -10.13 | -63.31% |
| 17 | 07-Oct | Lay Chelsea (A) v Burnley | 1.81 | 1.00 | 1-4 (Lose) | -1.00 | 17.00 | -11.13 | -65.47% |
| 18 | 21-Oct | Lay Man Utd (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 18.00 | -12.13 | -67.39% |
| 19 | 27-Oct | Lay Spurs (A) v Palace | 1.87 | 1.00 | 1-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 19.00 | -13.13 | -69.11% |
| 20 | 28-Oct | Lay Newcastle (A) v Wolves | 1.88 | 1.00 | 2-2 (Win) | 1.12 | 20.00 | -12.01 | -60.05% |
| 21 | 29-Oct | Lay Man City (A) v Man Utd | 1.73 | 1.00 | 0-3 (Lose) | -1.00 | 21.00 | -13.01 | -61.95% |
| 22 | 05-Nov | Lay Villa (A) v Forest | 1.95 | 1.00 | 2-0 (Win) | 1.03 | 22.00 | -11.98 | -54.45% |
| 23 | 05-Nov | Lay Liverpool (A) v Luton | 1.26 | 1.00 | 1-1 (Win) | 3.78 | 23.00 | -8.20 | -35.65% |
| 24 | 11-Nov | Lay Newcastle (A) v Bournemouth | 1.77 | 1.00 | 2-0 (Win) | 1.27 | 24.00 | -6.93 | -28.88% |
| 25 | 12-Nov | Lay Man City (A) v Chelsea | 1.8 | 1.00 | 4-4 (Win) | 1.22 | 25.00 | -5.71 | -22.84% |
| 26 | 25-Nov | Lay Arsenal (A) v Brentford | 1.82 | 1.00 | 0-1 (Lose) | -1.00 | 26.00 | -6.71 | -25.81% |
| 27 | 05-Dec | Lay Arsenal (A) v Luton | 1.24 | 1.00 | 3-4 (Lose | -1.00 | 27.00 | -7.71 | -28.56% |
| 28 | 05-Dec | Lay Liverpool (A) v Sheff Utd | 1.22 | 1.00 | 0-2 (Lose) | -1.00 | 28.00 | -8.71 | -31.11% |
| 29 | 05-Dec | Lay Man City (A) v Villa | 1.76 | 1.00 | 1-0 (Win) | 1.28 | 29.00 | -7.43 | -25.62% |
trending in the right direction since September, Dragon, thanks for the encouragement! It's more interesting when they're not all losing bets
three this weekend..
bet 30 lay liverpool at palace at 1.56 to win 1.78pts
bet 31 lay brentford at sheff utd at 1.88 to win 1.14pts. First time we've had Brentford OOA
bet 32 lay man city at luton at 1.18 to win 5.55pts
three this weekend..
bet 30 lay liverpool at palace at 1.56 to win 1.78pts
bet 31 lay brentford at sheff utd at 1.88 to win 1.14pts. First time we've had Brentford OOA
bet 32 lay man city at luton at 1.18 to win 5.55pts
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