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11 Aug 23
16:28
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Date Joined:
14 Jan 06
I’ve decided this will be my project for the season. Will try to lay them all, starting with Man City later today. We’ve seen lots of posts over the years saying what a gold mine it is, so I’m going to track it publicly for the season. I know last year it would have been profitable over the season but I am not convinced that’s always the case. Even if the experiment ends in a loss, there ought to be enough winning bets for it not to be too heavy.
My lays will be to level stakes liability, i.e. Lay-To-Lose 1 Point, not Lay-to-Win 1 point.
I will update the thread with my p/l, including the occasional table, in case Mesmerised looks in
. All my lays will be real bets on Betfair, taking prices available at the time of posting and profits posted will be after my 2% commission. More than likely I won’t catch all possible lays, as some odds-against prices, which are close to evens, will shorten to odds-on near to kick off and I won’t be constantly online but I will get as many as I can. That will swing both ways anyway, if I’m posting some bets a day or two early, as some of those prices will drift, so it should even out enough to still be interesting.
Bet 1 will be a lay of Man City at Burnley tonight but am holding off placing it for now, to see if that current 1.36 comes in a bit again, as people lump on nearer k/o
My lays will be to level stakes liability, i.e. Lay-To-Lose 1 Point, not Lay-to-Win 1 point.
I will update the thread with my p/l, including the occasional table, in case Mesmerised looks in
. All my lays will be real bets on Betfair, taking prices available at the time of posting and profits posted will be after my 2% commission. More than likely I won’t catch all possible lays, as some odds-against prices, which are close to evens, will shorten to odds-on near to kick off and I won’t be constantly online but I will get as many as I can. That will swing both ways anyway, if I’m posting some bets a day or two early, as some of those prices will drift, so it should even out enough to still be interesting.Bet 1 will be a lay of Man City at Burnley tonight but am holding off placing it for now, to see if that current 1.36 comes in a bit again, as people lump on nearer k/o
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Good luck!
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there was a good thread a few years ago selectively going after what were thought poor value odds on away shots.
good luck everyone's a winner. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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thanks guys
bet 1 is placed.. lay Man City at Burnley at 1.36 - 1pt to win 2.77 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Laying City against a newly promoted side who 'want to play football' was always going to be a long shot.
I imagine you'll learn a lot over the first half of the season. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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of course. I wasn't expecting to win that one but I'm not going to cherry pick the lays on this thread, as otherwise I'll miss lucrative shocks trying to be clever. That much I know from my previous posts/threads, where I was being much more selective. Just going to see where it ends up doing them all for now.
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Good luck
My threads started off poorly but early doors I'd say you'll have more success with these than my bets | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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thanks SS, not sure but we'll see. two this weekend..
bet 2 lay Brighton at Wolves at 1.92 to win 1.09 bet 3 lay Arsenal at Palace at 1.65 to win 1.54 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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no winners yet. two more this weekend..
bet 4 lay Spurs at Bournemouth 1.97 to win 1.03 bet 5 lay City at Sheff Utd at 1.22 to win 4.54 certainly not expecting anything from the 2nd one | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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no winners yet. two for this weekend coming
bet 6 lay West Ham at Luton at 1.85 to win 1.18 bet 7 lay Spurs at Burnley at 1.95 to win 1.05 think we might get the first winner with one of these | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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7 losses out of 7 so far. Looks like I will have to sink this gold mine shaft quite deep, to reap the promised rewards long term
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it will change after the international break with European football on its way for half the league
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4 games next weekend are odds on. Liverpool, city, Arsenal and Chelsea.
Must be a good chance one of them will slip up. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I thought about this also winner.
Noticed last year that one or two long odds-on shots draw when they played away. Haven't read the whole thread, maybe someone else has mentioned that. Perhaps you could consider looking for weaknesses. A team playing in euro comps. Big players being rested or injured. Whatever.. Trouble with something like this is, obviously, you need a couple of real shockers to have any hope of profit with this. But hey, not trying to pee on your parade here, eh?  Good luck to you winner. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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thanks guys. agree on both counts. i'm going to do them all this year, if i can, so it's there for everyone to see, then when people like brassneck tell us what a goldmine it is, we have a reference point. i do agree there are always shocks but by their very nature it's almost impossible to predict where they'll be and this hasn't worked for me in the past. also with them all in one place, we can analyse the prices at the end, to see if further refinement would work, e.g only laying prices
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that cut off half my reply..?
was going on to say only laying prices below 1.9 for example. dragon i'm looking forward to next weekend already. bet 8 lay liverpool at wolves at 1.46 to win 2.17 bet 9 lay man city at west ham at 1.54 to win 1.85 bet 10 lay arsenal at everton at 1.59 to win 1.69 bet 11 lay chelsea at bournemouth at 1.8 to win 1.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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going to interesting to see for sure EaW
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well I have to say even I was expecting more than one win in eleven when starting this but there we have it. 1.22 pts profit from the Chelsea lay, all the rest losers. Chronologically I had bets 10 & 11 the wrong way round. Will post my first update in table form in a mo, for those who like more visuals
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maybe this better..
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two this weekend coming..
bet 12 lay Man Utd at Burnley at 1.79 1pt to win 1.26 bet 13 lay Newcastle at Sheffield Utd at 1.5 1pt to win 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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united look short to me
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Time to abandon this project ?
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it's interesting. I won't abandon, because I'm interested to track it properly. Is this an unusual season? and is that because there's even more gulf in class between the likes of Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd versus the big boys, compared to previous years? I wonder.
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I've seen worse ideas posted on here, but this one hasn't been consistently successful. Here's how it would have played out in previous seasons. You may also be a little optimistic on the prices. For example this season I had Chelsea available to back at 1.83 v Bournemouth so a lay at 1.8 would have been tricky. My calculations use 1.86 for this one.
2000-01 29 2.68 2001-02 37 -13.41 2002-03 37 0.71 2003-04 42 -3.83 2004-05 41 -9.10 2005-06 47 0.37 2006-07 48 -6.94 2007-08 56 -6.46 2008-09 55 -16.95 2009-10 66 23.42 2010-11 49 17.70 2011-12 63 4.89 2012-13 58 -5.60 2013-14 64 -7.47 2014-15 58 -1.86 2015-16 47 6.54 2016-17 77 -13.06 2017-18 81 -1.10 2018-19 75 -12.89 2019-20 72 11.24 2020-21 76 6.59 2021-22 71 -9.83 2022-23 70 19.98 2023-24 11 -8.84 Total 1330 -23.19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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that's really interesting. the best years would have been 2009-2012 when forum was still buzzing.
I knew it would have been profitable last year from my own records but I didn't think it would always be. That's how this all started, a pre season discussion about betting approaches. I did get the 1.8 lay on Chelsea, it's maybe a bit lucky with the price timing but plenty of my other picks moved against me, last year and year before, so it's swings and roundabouts and will even out enough over time, to still have the same conclusion, in my view. I'm fine if this experiment proves a loss maker, we see plenty of people claiming these lays are a constant gold mine, it will be good to have something solid to refer to. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Discussions about betting approaches are what this forum should be about, so I'm all in favour of threads like this one.
Have you considered waiting until December before trying this? Some interesting results here: https://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2023/09/winter-gold-mine.html | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Discussions about betting approaches are what this forum should be about, so I'm all in favour of threads like this one.
I agree. To put my comments in context, I have 8 years worth of soccer data covering several countries and I have a lot of experience in relating percentage chance to odds, and how the markets change/decay in running. The market makers have more data, more program analysis availability, and super fast algorithms. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge, and the way the markets are, means that the margin between the back and lay sides makes it more difficult still. I have said this on here many times, “Data is random”. If something occurs 50% of the time, the sequence will not be W, L, W, L, W, L etc. The winning and losing sequences over time are random, as the results of the OP’s strategy are showing. I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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You're talking about variance, which is a very important concept to understand. If something occurs 50% of the time as in your example, then over 1,000 events it will almost certainly (99.71%) lose six times in a row with a greater than 5% chance of a losing run of 13 in that time. The variance will be higher when laying odds-on, but unless the method has +EV, it's doomed.
Can you clarify your last sentences - "I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters." ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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@cpfc4me, I'm honoured to have piqued your interest with my thread
I have had various thoughts on the timing. This thread aside, most seasons I start off well, give myself the impression I have a good eye for value, then hit the rails and give most of it back around Late November early December through to the end of January and then start to do better as the season ends, before we get to the tail end where teams give up and results can be odd. I had a profitable 2021-22 but a loss making 2022-23, so I feel like I can do it but last year proved not consistently but I've long thought that something happens mid season that I can't put my finger on. If there's something to be said for only doing these odds on lays in the second half of the season, I might see that later on, if I keep this up, which I do still intend to do. I also wonder about excluding Man City and newly promoted sides, which I note you've analysed in your blog but sometimes that's where the lucrative shocks come from, so initially my instinct was to include all, so as not to miss out. In any case I wasn't doing this particular thread with real a expectation of a profit but more to track it all publicly, as stated in my OP. As I've already said though, I'm surprised it's been as bad as it has, first 9 bets losers and 12 out of 13 losers overall. RE Rigsby's post I suspect he's alluding to the fact there's no 3rd option, i.e the draw, overs/unders has only 2 selections, where match odds has 3 outcomes/prices to track. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Can you clarify your last sentences - "I am an unders/overs guy. It is quite a simple concept in that it either is or it is not. Nothing else matters." ?
When I know that the odds and stats are in my favour I back another goal in play at the appropriate time. Simply, there is another goal or not. It does not matter which team scores the goal, which player scores the goal, what the final score is, whether the game ends H, A, or D. If a goal is scored I win, if not I lose. Once the bet is placed I can walk away from it and do something else. Additionally, my strategies vary between each half, because the markets are different. I do not watch the game, have any interest in who wins, or look to see how many SOT’s (it only takes one shot to score a goal). I prefer non UK games because I have no knowledge baggage which may psychologically affect my decision making. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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any 12 from 13
358/1 shame about Chelsea  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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There's no fixture where you'd think 'no, i'll pass on that one' and no assessment of price/value whatsoever?
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@hulk lol yes I thought about that too
imagine backing them all in an acca/perm@lurka yes that's the point of this thread, not to try to cherry pick. these are not my tips/selections, just me assessing whether there's any truth to the rumour that it's a profitable approach. Having said that, the ones I would have picked wouldn't have been winning bets anyway, with the exception of Chelsea at Bournemouth. I did it the other way the last two years with mixed results and this is a different project. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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two more this weekend coming
bet 14 lay Arsenal at Bournemouth at 1.57, 1pt to win 1.75 bet 15 lay Man City at Wolves at 1.37, 1pt to win 2.70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Away teams have been odds-on to win at AFC Bournemouth in the EPL 31 times, and lays would have amounted to a loss of 2.55 units. +0.55u when laying Arsenal.
For Wolves, it's 38 matches and a loss of 0.31u. When laying Man City, +1.63u. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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well we got another winner and not the one we would have expected. +2.65 points from bet 15. Updated table to follow
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green shoots EWAW green shoots
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two this weekend
bet 16 lay Spurs at Luton at 1.51 1pt to win 1.96 bet 17 lay Chelsea at Burnley 1.81 1pt to win 1.23 |