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Aspro
09 Oct 20 11:52
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 15,714 | Blogger: Aspro's blog
It appears that Betfair no longer want us to win on goals. Too many games are now restricted to Over 4.5 goals and to add further insult, games where goals can be generally expected are not even listed on the exchange.

Is there a reason why Betfair would not want us to have access to these, especially considering that a number of these games are available on the Sportsbook AND in-running?

If I hit (say) an Over 6.5 goals, the commission would be quite decent for Betfair, so why restrict any game at all?

At first I thought it was my imagination, but it appears to be a worsening trend of late.
Pause Switch to Standard View Why Have The Goals Been Reduced?
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Report The Dragon October 9, 2020 11:25 AM BST
fair point cant see any sense but when do BF and sense go together?
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 11:35 AM BST
True... There are 4 games currently being played, three of them are in the Russian Professional Football League and I don't recall this league being restricted before. Today, all three of them are restricted to 4.5 goals! I only fancied one of the three (Zenit II) who are currently 2-0 up after 30 minutes! I'm on over 3.5 and will probably green out anyway, but had the markets been open I would have been on over 6.5 too with the hope of a little trade.

The only game that does still have the usual over 8.5 goals is a Portuguese game, which are seldom high-scoring... go figure.
Report The Dragon October 9, 2020 11:36 AM BST
CrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 1:12 PM BST
Hmmm; maybe I'm reading too much into this but a stack of games have just gone up (although many are actually suspended) and the ones restricted are the Malaysian games, which are always good for goals and the German Regionalliga game (need I say more). All the others, mainly Romanian, who are not good for goal hunters, are all normal (over 8.5)

Why are the games where goals are likely being restricted? Where's the logic?
Report The Dragon October 9, 2020 1:15 PM BST
the more bets are placed the more income to BF. Makes no sense to resist b etting opportunities particuarly given the marked increase in goals particuarlly in the Prem League
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 1:17 PM BST
It doesn't appear to change on big games like the Prem; but the minor games, where I spend my days sniffing out goal opportunities, are recently all being restricted. Before the current batch two games went up. Tomsk and CSKA with the latter more likely to have goals based on current form. Guess which one is restricted? Crazy
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 1:20 PM BST
I started noticing this when the Czech games started being restricted to 4.5 goals and with Czech games, especially the lower leagues, there are always games with high goals, but as the past week or so has passed I've noticed it creeping into other lucrative leagues, like the ones already mentioned.
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 1:26 PM BST
Aspro ... havent a clue why but i can only guess maybe lack of liquidity on some areas so they've tried to condense the markets a bit
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 1:33 PM BST
Fair point Coach, but I would imagine that less would be placed on Romanian games (that are untouched) than Czech games, which are always buzzing. For me, it feels like Betfair do not want us playing with these potentially lucrative games, but I cannot understand why, not forgetting this has only recently begun happening. My only reasoning for this is that the layers are Betfair themselves and they are getting stung a little... surely not.
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 2:50 PM BST

Oct 9, 2020 -- 2:15PM, The Dragon wrote:


the more bets are placed the more income to BF. Makes no sense to resist b etting opportunities particuarly given the marked increase in goals particuarlly in the Prem League


This is betfair, a company that has the best model out there to make money from and they can't be bothered

Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 3:05 PM BST
Aspro , i'm not sure  who are buying the bets   ...and    yes it could be BF   ...but i always though the markets were pretty watertight with not much leeway  and odds priced accordingly .

I do goals myself  but only the premier league and a few of the biggies, as they have the liquidity ...some leagues i can't get bets matched  so I simply gave up .
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 3:16 PM BST
Maybe your stakes are higher than my £2 bets LaughWink
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 3:26 PM BST
Its the big players that will find it harder obviously

I don't have issues with my upwards of £25 bets obviously

But £1000 bets?
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 3:39 PM BST
I only do larger bets on bigger games and certainly not on goals; maybe the odd overs, but usually match odds. Liquidity on a 50/1 shot (6.5 goals+) is usually only a few pounds anyway, but nice when they come in and are easily traded too, especially immediately after a goal is scored where punters are willing to take a worse price to get out early.

Problem is, which is the reason for this thread, Betfair is starting to severely restrict these opportunities Sad
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 3:48 PM BST
aspro ,my stakes aren't that big at all  ,but even £2  odds are impossible to get matched even at market value i find on many of them  ...

    it's a pity as it would be good to do a few of the minor leagues ...used to like the bulgarian league
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 3:49 PM BST
some weird odds on the  Nadal v Swartz match aspro right now  Crazy
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 3:52 PM BST
I stick strictly to football and the odd grandmother bet on the National
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 3:58 PM BST
can't say i blame you Aspro  you wise owl  Silly
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 4:09 PM BST
league one match tonight i see Aspro lad ...that should liven up nearer the time i hope Tongue Out
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 4:11 PM BST
last nights 0-0 draws even after the extra time was one to forget  for a few i bet
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 4:13 PM BST
Just noticed that; hmmm, could be worthy of a small punt; it's either that or finish watching Russian Doll
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 4:14 PM BST
Last night was utter filth for my goals attempt Cry Busted out the account on here chasing one

It was the opposite Wednesday night (into Thursday morning) every time I placed a bet it was a winner within 5 minutes on most of them, "goooaaal" every time within 5 to 10 minutes of placing the bet
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 4:18 PM BST
I had England Over 1.5 HT, didn't bother with FT. Also got on France at HT... another disappointment, however; also had a few random bets floating, which made the evening bearable, but still a losing day overall.
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 4:20 PM BST
I'd like to have got on the current Russian U21 but the odds are far too skinny Sad
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 4:21 PM BST
Busted out the account on here chasing one

Got the T-shirt for that one too Laugh

Unlucky SS; always a bummer
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 4:30 PM BST
Yeah asp its a stinger when it happens, chico (1-0 after 6 minutes) and the game turned into mouse p*ss from them on, like 1 shot on target after that CryCry
U21 games are always short, like 1.02-1.03 pre match short
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 4:34 PM BST
Over 0.5 should say

Overs are very short for those games and they don't normally have tons of goals in them from experience
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 4:38 PM BST
please not on republic of ireland sonts  ? they're a nightmare for goals
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 4:39 PM BST
Leagues to avoid for goals, always, has to be French leagues
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 5:03 PM BST
La Liga for me aspro ...used to be a honeypot ...now a disaster area   ... with France  it's low goals but steady and the odd surprise Cool
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 5:03 PM BST
Coach

It was the Chico game that done me in Sad

But nah wasn't on Ireland I've learned they're the ultimate defence minded team
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 5:04 PM BST
France is one of my personal faves, Dunno why just get a good vibe from that league, not with overs but team backs and BTTS
Report Aspro October 9, 2020 5:19 PM BST
I've been keeping a paper-based system for the past few months, which is based on goals I hasten to add, and if I remove the French games the profit margin goes up considerably. Perhaps good for match odds or BTTS but for goals I'd steer clear. La Liga hasn't jumped out at me yet, but internationals are also amongst those to avoid, although a newb could have told you that one Grin. One thing that has also jumped out at me but are very rare, are three or more goals at HT that are at odds-on prices. Surprisingly many fail to achieve it.
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 5:24 PM BST
ahh thats interesting aspro ...  do a lot of those type bets too at half time   ...also on correct score
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 5:25 PM BST
i was about to ask  who the hell are chico ? ...you guys do some obscure games  Grin
Report SontaranStratagem October 9, 2020 5:55 PM BST
Boyacá Chico FC, coach

And yeah its a bit obscure Laugh
Report Coachbuster October 9, 2020 9:40 PM BST
4-1 in the fleetwood game FT...hope you guys got in on the goals
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 11:30 AM BST
Of the 12 games currently being played, 7 of them are restricted to Over 4.5 goals... wtf is going on?
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 11:33 AM BST
Wait a minute, we can add another! 8 out of 13 games restricted for goals betting; surely there must be an explanation why Betfair want to restrict more and more games!
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 11:35 AM BST
Btw Coach; I missed out on the game last night. Got into a film instead. Probably missed out on a few quid there.
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 12:58 PM BST
Aspro ..which games are the ones in question as i only had a small dabble on the fleetwood match but saw the goals markets on there were OK  ... I did  over 6.5 in that game for a laugh

it must be a liquidity issue ...i know BF have some strange  ideas  but it would make some sense to me if they did condense the markets
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 1:14 PM BST
If you look at the current German games that kicked off at 1pm they are all Over 4.5 where several of them can be almost relied upon for goals; which ones is why we win and lose Grin

This is all new and I've noticed that the more obscure games where goals can be counted upon, within reason, are the ones affected, however, not all games are restricted, like the obscure Polish and Romanian games for example; games where goals are not as good as the Germans or Czechs. It doesn't feel right Coach and although your comments make perfect sense, why only restrict the games where goals are likely and commission is all but guaranteed?

Take some earlier games. By half-time a few of them had 3 or 4 goals in them, leaving only 1 or 2 to play with; a time (as you pointed out yesterday) where punters would get involved, especially where games have proven goals in them. Seems very strange to me and this is only recent. Betfair wouldn't throw away potential commission so why are they doing so?
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 1:17 PM BST
Thankfully, out of the systems I'm currently toying with, three of them are not affected by this, but one is being crippled by it. I guess that one will have to take a back seat now Sad
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 1:53 PM BST
Here's one for you Coach. The game between Spurs and Utd women is well into the second half, score 0-0 and only £75 matched on match odds, yet 9 goals available. Swedish game, 3-1 at HT, £1,000's already matched yet goal-getters can only bet on one more goal where they would be sniffing out games like this. Makes no sense at all to restrict them.
Report 37+73 October 10, 2020 2:03 PM BST
Aspro you are correct.....have you taken it up with them yet ? as they have had games up there lately that you can not bet on for the latter20+ mins
Report 37+73 October 10, 2020 2:04 PM BST
so why have them up ?
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 2:09 PM BST
No I haven't and wouldn't know how to (advice would be helpful here) but threw it on the forum in case anyone has any idea of what is going on. I can only assume that either Betfair are laying the odds and have got stung a little or is this possible having an effect on the Premium Charge? Either way, Betfair must be reducing this for their own benefit as it makes no sense otherwise.
Report 37+73 October 10, 2020 2:28 PM BST
I would think the BOTS make up a majority of the these markets? But I have asked my account manager about the above, as myself and others trade probability, and have noticed the same.He has told me he will ask and let me know.
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 2:31 PM BST
Excellent; I look forward to your response.
Report 37+73 October 10, 2020 2:34 PM BST
Yes...it`s a strange one, as makes no sense at all
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 3:12 PM BST
sorry i didn't get back earlier aspro ...didn't get the chance to see the swedish/ladies games in action  ...

  It is a mystery ...do you think they are directing people to just bet on the main screen games ?     
( they all seem to have 9 goal opps)   I also checked the league One and two matches and they seem untouched for now  ...

I do take your point though about finding games with goal opps only for them not to feature the markets  ... as 37+ says , why have them  at all ?

If you see one with restricted goals ,can you tell me which fixture it is as i'm curious now Cool
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 3:17 PM BST
Aspro ...do you remember the total goals market ...what ever happened to that ? Confused
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 3:29 PM BST
I recall total individual goals (one side) but the overs markets usually takes care of the rest.

The reductions do not appear to be affecting the English games or main games in other leagues, only the more obscure leagues, or lower foreign leagues, but they are picking and choosing which ones. It really does have a feel that obscure games where goals are a good shout are the ones they are reducing, although I can't be certain of this. One thing I am certain of though is that this has only recently started happening and more and more games are being reduced, as I pointed out earlier with 8 of the 13 that were currently in-play all restricted to over 4.5. I'm on goals most days and sniffing out opportunities so these markets I see regularly, hence why I have noticed this sudden change by Betfair.
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 3:47 PM BST
do you get matched easily on these leagues Aspro ?    i've looked at them, but always the boxes  look empty .    Good if you can make it work where possible Cool 

How about the goals markets in the busy games ...  do you not like these ?   I wish even they  were busier sometimes
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 4:02 PM BST
Yeah, if I'm being honest I do get matched quite easily on most games, although in saying that, if the back/lay has a distance between them I don't get involved at all. These are probably the games you are referring to, but in the main I usually get to play most goal markets.

Yes, I also get heavily involved in the busy games; made a killing on the Premiership last month, in-running.
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 4:18 PM BST
are you selective with the big games then aspro  or do bet on  take the lot ? Grin
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 4:18 PM BST
bet on the lot *
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 4:26 PM BST
When I noticed a trend developing I got involved so for the past few weeks I've had 7 goals, for shrapnel, on every Premiership game, regardless. It would take a lot of losses to lose what I've won, but once that trend settles down again, I'll take the final losses on the chin and wait for the another similar trend to develop, which is probably unlikely with the Premiership but you never know.

Usually I am quite selective on big games and tend to opt for match odds rather than goals. Goals, for me, is shrapnel betting for fun. I can't really get hurt by the stakes I have on them but when the bigger bets pay (over 6.5 etc) it can be a nice top-up, which is one of the reasons I've noticed the reduction in opportunities of late.
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 6:50 PM BST
It's good you can spot these trends  as and when they happen Aspro  ... I only ever see games in isolation  and bet fresh  regardless of scores before .... not sure if i'm doing the right thing though..    Do you think this recent goal run will  burn itself out or do you think we are seeing a long term change ?    It's been some run so far
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 7:09 PM BST
No, I can't see this run continuing at all. We could have a season of 'above average' but these 7-goal thrillers are unlikely to continue. The beauty of the current trend is that for the minimum stake (£2) you can nick a 50/1 shot, or several as it has turned out, but if this was to continue those 50/1 bites will disappear too. It's been fun but not expecting much more from it.
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 7:22 PM BST
What helps me of late is keeping a large bank, well in excess of my own betting limit. If I have (say) £100 and this drops down to £50 it can change the mindset and you want to chase a little, however; with a bank of £1,500 and this drops to £1,450 then the mindset is very different and I'm not tempted to chase my losses. Not for everyone, but for me it has helped a lot.
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 7:22 PM BST
yes they've certainly been fun games   ...a couple about to start now (hopefully) Grin
Report Aspro October 10, 2020 7:28 PM BST
I assume you mean Spain & Germany
Report Coachbuster October 10, 2020 9:06 PM BST
they're the ones Aspro ...    there's always tomorrow  Grin
Report Aspro October 11, 2020 11:57 AM BST
Strongly fancy Belgium to beat us today. Have no idea how we're (slight) favourites.

On a brighter note, most of the games appear ok today
Report 37+73 October 12, 2020 4:22 PM BST
Still awaiting answers fellas.....let you know asap
Report kingscrewed October 12, 2020 5:15 PM BST
Noticed on a couple of games today no first half markets.
Report Aspro October 12, 2020 6:39 PM BST
Thanks 37+73. If you check out 'inner city sumo's' correct score thread we continue on there with the latest. It's getting worse!

Agreed kingscrewed; a lot of them now have correct score and up to over 4.5 only. Our markets are disappearing and fast
Report kingscrewed October 12, 2020 6:49 PM BST
Just seen the Uruguay second tier game has upto 8.5 goals but no half time or correct score markets.
Report Aspro October 12, 2020 6:54 PM BST
This obviously isn't a coincidence or an error on Betfair's part. Something is clearly changing and not for the better.
Report 37+73 October 12, 2020 6:55 PM BST
yes saw that.....have asked them is there a policy change etc etc...awaiting a reply...as they should notify customers of any changes? It just makes no sense whatsoever to have games showing when no bets can be placed at all
Report kingscrewed October 12, 2020 7:05 PM BST
My guess would be trying to get people to use sportsbook where they can have big over rounds as not competing with exchange.
Report 37+73 October 12, 2020 7:16 PM BST
another example up there atm....chilean prem.....5 goals 2 reds and nobody been able to bet since the 66th min......stupidity
Report Aspro October 12, 2020 7:30 PM BST
I did think of Sportsbook and the Premium Charge and the fact that people maybe have systems tapped into obscure markets that is either costing Betfair (assuming they are the layers) or losing liquidity from the site. Nothing is adding up right now but perhaps an answer will come soon before they start losing punters too. Maybe the Exchange has had its day?
Report 37+73 October 13, 2020 12:28 PM BST
I hope you are wrong Aspro, but the delay in their reply is not good !!!!!! The exchange has always been at the cutting edge of tech, and although over the years has had a few limited expected hiccups....remains the world leader.I Hope the bookmaking side does not spoil or interfere with that.
Report Aspro October 13, 2020 1:07 PM BST
I hope I'm wrong too, but threads are now beginning to pop up as punters start noticing the change. Surely their records would indicate a loss of revenue (you would think)
Report 37+73 October 13, 2020 1:22 PM BST
but as I stated to them, "this is an exchange" for punters, traders et all? You used to be able to request (and maybe still can) that markets were put up on the site, rather than them just taking them away and not telling anyone.....all very strange!!!!!!
Report 37+73 October 13, 2020 1:29 PM BST
I know one thing.......if the original Betfair guys had taken so long to answer a customers query ,the exchange would not have been as successful as it has been !!!!
Report Coachbuster October 13, 2020 3:58 PM BST
the betting landscape has changed so much since betfairs early days what with all the other betting sites and their offers/ freebies etc

I'm geniunely surprised the exchange still has half these games on offer  ...I think there will be a time when most of these minor leagues will be wiped off completely and the exchange streamlined to just maybe a handful of meaningful games each day  and maybe no more than 3 at a time except for premier league etc 

Ther bookmaking side is where it's at ..  Paddy Powers profits must be far greater than the BF exchange  at a guess and they're possibly dwarfed by B3 6 5    ...I think the exchange side of things has been pretty flat for them the last 5 or so years
Report Coachbuster October 13, 2020 4:01 PM BST
obviously you have to be a successful bookmaker and know  how to run a decent site ,B3 6 5 have got it down to a fine art  ...however there must be 100s of online bookies in limbo  around the world too  ...


  pie/slice Devil
Report Coachbuster October 13, 2020 4:04 PM BST
the chance of getting a successful exchange of the ground must be close to zero
Report 37+73 October 16, 2020 6:01 PM BST
Aspro et all......I,ve been told that they were putting in a new template for the footy games,and going forward games will have up to 8.5 o/u
Report clacherholiday2 October 16, 2020 10:51 PM BST
been a while since i looked at the football but i did notice during this week that loads of games dont have the first half goals markets anymore.
seems bizarre as there was usually liquidity in those, even markets with 10kish matched are worth it for betfair surely?
Report SontaranStratagem October 17, 2020 1:42 AM BST
Bet365 seem to have more games than Betfair nowadays

Sometimes there's 15-20 markets available (quiet patch) whereas Betfair have like 8 at the same time
Report Aspro October 17, 2020 9:42 AM BST
Excellent news 37+73. Let's see if they are true to their word.
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