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dave b
17 Jun 20 18:23
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Date Joined: 03 Oct 01
| Topic/replies: 147 | Blogger: dave b's blog
So Aston Villa were 3.35 at kick off, what would it have been with fans in stadium?
Man City currently 1.35, what should it be if fans present?
Any views on this?

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By:
n88uk
When: 17 Jun 20 18:30
City probs be like 1.25. Villa like 2.8.

Views are it's clearly a huge loss of home advantage, there's minimal data to go on though. You can look at Bundesliga results and see there's been way more away wins than homes wins, but sample size is tiny of course so it's not representative. I would guess it reduces home advantage to very low and games are priced up closer to being a neutral ground than a home team.
By:
n88uk
When: 17 Jun 20 18:34
I mean another thing to factor into prices also is teams haven't played in 3 months, teams like City are longer at start of season, than when on a 8 game winning streak in December norm.
By:
Angoose
When: 17 Jun 20 19:39
Bundesliga before and after COVID break final results

    Months               H               D               SD               A               Tot      
        Aug - Mar           97        9        40        78        224   
        May - Jun           11        3        13        28        55   
                                                                                         
        Aug - Mar           43%        4%        18%        35%                  
        May - Jun           20%        5%        24%        51%           

           
Away win percentage has soared from 35% to 51%, no score draws up 1% and score draws up 6%.
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