Premier League predictions using xG

Premier League predictions - week 17
....Result    ...Lawro    ....David baddiel ......you have to laugh
SATURDAY           
Liverpool v Watford    x-x    3-0    4-1    3-0
Burnley v Newcastle    x-x    2-0    2-2    1-1
Chelsea v Bournemouth    x-x    2-0    3-0    4-1
Leicester v Norwich    x-x    3-0    3-1    3-0
Sheff Utd v Aston Villa    x-x    2-1    1-0    2-0
Southampton v West Ham    x-x    2-1    2-2    2-3
SUNDAY           
Man Utd v Everton    x-x    2-0    2-1    3-1
Wolves v Tottenham    x-x    0-2    1-2    1-2
Arsenal v Man City    x-x    0-2    2-3    3-3
MONDAY           
Crystal Palace v Brighton    x-x    2-1    1-0   1-1

good start masta

by all accounts bournemouth just had a great chance to score

CLOSE!
Chelsea 0-0 Bournemouth

What a chance for Bournemouth!

Joshua King manages to get in behind the defence. He thinks about a shot on goal but the angle is tight so instead flicks it across for Dan Gosling, who looks certain to stab into the empty net but misses his shot.

Lucky, lucky escape for Chelsea.

yeah, good stuff.

very close again , 5 of the last 6 games out by the odd goal

Top tipping

cheers guys

+13 profit after Round 1 - i will continue for a few weeks to see if there's something in the specific method, it's merely using the data and so i take no credit, it's just the data being interpreted and playing out

the odds suggest we should be getting 1-1.5 correct score per round so 3 is above average, we'll see if it is just "luck" - probably ;)

this xmas period could see some variance due to team changes etc but should even itself out

back on friday for round 2

forgot about this for a few days --- picking it up again -- exchange price in brackets

Brighton 2-1 Bournemouth
(9.60)

Newcastle 1-1 Everton
(7.20)

Soton 1-1 Palace
(7.80)

Watford 2-1 Villa
(9.80)

Norwich 1-1 Spurs
(9.00)

West Ham 1-2 Leicester
(9.80)

Burnley 1-1 Man Utd
(8.00)

Arsenal 1-1 Chelsea
(8.80)

Liverpool 2-1 Wolves
(10.00)

Man City 3-1 Sheff Utd
(12.00)

average goals per game 2.60 -- about right -- let's see how it does

the experiment continues. i've formulated the calculations now, nothing complicated, should be even more accurate, just doing what the data says will happen
taking exchange price for most value

Brighton 1-1 Chelsea
8.40

Burnley 2-1 Aston Villa
9.40

Newcastle 1-2 Leicester
9.60

Soton 1-1 Tottenham
8.40

Watford 1-1 Wolves
7.20

Man City 2-1 Everton
10.50

Norwich 1-1 Palace
7.20

West Ham 1-1 Bournemouth
8.20

Arsenal 1-2 Man Utd
10.50

Liverpool 2-1 Sheff Utd
9.80

-good luck-

3 winners this week -- strike rate is healthy  (8 winners out of 30 matches is 26.67% strike rate) a couple of close ones as well

week +16.10
running total +36.7

Looks like you're doing well. Not sure how true this is but read a stat over the weekend (in comparison to Man City's superior goal difference than Liverpool's) that Man City would be top on xG. That's obviously only the one example but does show some possible fallacy in xG.

Amendment
Watford 2-1 Spurs
14.00

Watford have a very high xG at home (1.63), Spurs away xG is (1.52). I put the wrong data in initially so this comes out as a Watford win

Deeney pen saved at 0-0 unlucky

going to knock first goalscorer on the head, don't think it will work and don't have the time to do it

xG predictions
week -2
overall +33.3


week 24

Aston Villa 2-1 Watford
12.50

Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton
7.40

Crystal Palace 1-2 Southampton
12.00

Everton 2-1 Newcastle
9.60

Sheff Utd 1-2 Man City
9.40

Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal
9.40

Leicester 2-1 West Ham
9.60

Spurs 2-1 Norwich
9.40

Man United 2-1 Burnley
9.60

Wolves 1-2 Liverpool
9.60

^^yep that's what i meant, xGA. wasn't clear in my message

villa 2-1 was 96 mins
everton 2-1 was 94 mins
everton 2-2 was 95 mins
chelsea 2-1 84 mins
chelsea 2-2 was 87 mins

an exciting few minutes there

no doubt a few grand gubbed at very short odds....

round 7

West Ham 1-2 Liverpool
10.00

Going well, but will it work after transfer deadline day?