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clacherholiday2
18 Apr 17 00:27
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Date Joined: 02 Jun 04
| Topic/replies: 27,071 | Blogger: clacherholiday2's blog
besides the fact they dont need to win the match in 90 minutes to go through, what am i missing here?

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Replies: 150
By:
n88uk
When: 18 Apr 17 00:37
Dortmund's price is shocking. And might even get backed in further because of the must win factor. Would probably rather lay them than back Monaco because of the situation of the tie.
By:
tobermory
When: 18 Apr 17 01:02
I have this 2.57 Monaco & 3.08 Dortmund
By:
sofaking
When: 18 Apr 17 01:57
Monaco been underrated all season in the CL.  They were 3.1 to qualify c City. Happy  And these German teams are massively overrated.
By:
JC1326
When: 18 Apr 17 08:10
I've backed Monaco to qualify as 1.33 is a good price, imo, but I wouldn't be as confident about laying Dortmund. Price is wrong, definitely, but this could be a basketball match, like the City one
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 18 Apr 17 11:02
just back goals
By:
TheChaser
When: 18 Apr 17 13:57
BTTS and Goals and then bank the lot at the end

I backed Monaco aaway and not letting that go on a home win
By:
TheChaser
When: 18 Apr 17 13:58
Dortmund going to have a real go and Monaco will have a go also they wont try hang on

End to End here weeee goooooo

+ 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 GrinPlainCoolPlainPlain
By:
zipperdidoda
When: 18 Apr 17 19:02
are the prices reflecting Dortmund adversely affected by bomb , before 1st leg?
that's what Klopp suggested i believe
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 19 Apr 17 10:38
3.25
By:
n88uk
When: 19 Apr 17 10:53
That's nothing to do with the prices. The prices on Dortmund were insane in the first leg too. They are just getting backed in tonight on the must win factor as always happens. When a bigger team needs to win, they get backed in. Same is happening with Barcelona too.
By:
n88uk
When: 19 Apr 17 11:03
The idea the gap between the 2 teams here is as much as the market is claiming is preposterous really. Dortmund have won 4 of 15 away in the Bundesliga, their away record is really average, yet we're meant to believe they are a far superior side to Monaco. Dortmund are a good side, but they aren't Real Madrid good, and they are getting priced up like they are close to Real Madrid here.
By:
scandanavian_haven
When: 19 Apr 17 11:04
Dortmund are a huff and puff team and Monaco took advantage with their usual counter attacking qualities, games where the home team doesn't need to win usually end in draws - at least it feels that way, don't about the stats.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 19 Apr 17 11:07
Would love to see detailed report and stats on these scenarios.
By:
n88uk
When: 19 Apr 17 11:14
Problem is it's so game dependent, and dependent on what the scoreline is after say 70 minutes. There won't be much data for say particularly 2-3 anyway, certainly not enough to make that reliable conclusions. I mean sometimes you will get results like 2-3 where the away side is probably a 1.5 shot to win a home as they are perceived to be the far better side etc.

What is interesting here is the price on draw, it looks extremely big atm, far bigger than you'd expect for this kind of game, and far bigger for a game where one side is 2.2 to win. Again likely based off the idea if it's a draw Dortmund will keep attacking and either score or concede, but at the same time you can get a situation like last night in Leicester vs Atletico where if it's 1-1 at the end it's basically over anyway.
By:
mafeking
When: 19 Apr 17 13:36
dortmund arguably the worst price of the season

pretty obvious this is an outstanding monaco side. defensively they're a bit suspect just their goalscoring record is phenomenal. averaging 3 goals per game takes a lot of doing even in the french league
By:
Platini
When: 19 Apr 17 13:49
Dortmund look a mug side at a mug price. Good luck if you're a backer. Think you're gonna need lots of it tonight.
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Apr 17 14:24
Monaco @3.25
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Apr 17 15:37
i lost over 90 minutes yesterday when i went in with a lot of confidence, was bailed out by real madrid in extra time v 10 men.

its affecting my judgement for this as I am struggling to find the right angle to back monaco in a situation id easily have a few bets down already. 

there must be a reason dortmund are so low, did they just sign ronaldinho and zidane in 2005?
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Apr 17 16:11
Kylian Mbappe Lottin @17/10 betfair sportsbook anytime.  beats the exchange and every other book, a solid start to my nights betting (!)
By:
sofaking
When: 19 Apr 17 16:50
Laying Dortmund at 2.18.
By:
johnnythebull
When: 19 Apr 17 16:58
seems logical that sofa..thinking along those lines myself
slight reservation is monaco can lose 0-1,1-2 and go thru
only really have to put the hammer down if Dort score 3
may not be quite as high scoring as the mkts indicate
as may well be the case at the Nou Camp
By:
sofaking
When: 19 Apr 17 17:09
Yeah, overs at 1.36 is way too short. I don't want to lay it though!
By:
Coachbuster
When: 19 Apr 17 17:10
horrible Dortmund price  imo


but then i get it wrong more often than not so i expect an easy  dortmund  win  on that basis  . life is very confusing .
By:
johnnythebull
When: 19 Apr 17 17:12
u'd be sweating all night if u laid it
having said that i've seen both sides be profligate
in front of goals
but they'd have to waste chance after chance
for o 2.5 not to eventuate
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Apr 17 17:19
johnnythebull your instincts telling you it may be tighter than the markets expects could be spot on, we all saw monaco ease off in the first leg when they couldve killed the tie and it let dortmund stumble back into it when 2-0 down.

the first half was all action, as soon as half time came around monaco attempted to get all tactical and it almost totally failed, they were over thinking what they needed to do.
By:
johnnythebull
When: 19 Apr 17 17:25
as u say clach they're not really set up like say juve or atleti who are a lot sounder at the back to play conservatively
attack is their best means of defence
so it should really be end to end stuff
with 2 not stellar defences
there should be goals
but as Greavsie said back in the day
'funny ole game,saint'Grin
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Apr 17 17:32
the 90 minute price is far too high, seems ideal for betting in play, it wont move much after the off and we'll know quickly how its shaping up in the first half.

dortmund caught cold last time, theyy wont be tonight, not that it matters to me i think monaco are streets ahead of them regardless of motivation.
By:
sofaking
When: 19 Apr 17 17:50
Mbappe to score at 2.46. Small stake.
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Apr 17 18:04
hes 2.5 on sportsbook, was 2.7 earlier Love
By:
Coachbuster
When: 19 Apr 17 18:17
odds on the game correct score are bizarre to say the least
By:
Coachbuster
When: 19 Apr 17 18:18
it's like folk can't make their mind up if there is going to be  3 goals or 10  Laugh
By:
Hamsterdam
When: 19 Apr 17 19:17
No Fabinho for Monaco apparently he's a key player and them losing the other week so heavily to PSG in the league cup final was put down to this.
By:
Hamsterdam
When: 19 Apr 17 19:19
Meanwhile Reus back for Dortmund, explains the odds.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 19 Apr 17 19:23
does anyone think this may be a low scoring game ?
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Apr 17 19:27
if any sort of significant % shift for dortmund in the market was really based on Reus being a match winner he wouldnt be playing for dortmund

thats the sort of moves you see for real when they drop ronaldo, bale, modric, isco etc, seen it a few times this season.  reus isnt as good as 5 real madrid players combined.

betfair expecting a monaco implosion but the dortmund move keeps meeting resistence, possibly early backers laying off, time will tell in play if the odds shift for them after a few minutes possession or an early chance.
By:
Hamsterdam
When: 19 Apr 17 19:28
K/O delayed until.........................7:50pm Dortmund held on bus for security reasons say Daily Star.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 19 Apr 17 19:29
couldn't they just arrive in an old mini bus in a disguise  Wink
By:
kellydamo
When: 19 Apr 17 19:41
5
By:
betting_masta
When: 19 Apr 17 19:43

Apr 19, 2017 -- 1:23PM, Coachbuster wrote:


does anyone think this may be a low scoring game ?


no. both defences looked shocking in the first match and monaco is the highest scoring team in europe plus dortmund have to score. obvious but think there will be goals

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