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king of the arbers
11 Feb 15 11:06
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Date Joined: 11 May 06
| Topic/replies: 29 | Blogger: king of the arbers's blog
Being offered £104k for his ticket i would cash out although as an arber i would !
Pause Switch to Standard View Approx 1.4 million for £4 stake if...
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Report mesmerised February 11, 2015 11:08 AM GMT
I'd cash out at half time when Chelsea are 3-0 up.
Report GRANTCKING February 11, 2015 12:07 PM GMT
whats this ur talking about?
Report GRANTCKING February 11, 2015 12:08 PM GMT
cant see them scoring 4 v mugerton personally, would cashout
Report hearts1874 February 11, 2015 12:26 PM GMT
CASHOUT
Report Johnny_Mustang February 11, 2015 12:27 PM GMT
I would happily take the 104K and stroll naked through the streets of West London.

Again.

(Probably do it for a lot less too).
Report GRANTCKING February 11, 2015 12:30 PM GMT
what was the rest of the acca?
Report seathestars February 11, 2015 12:48 PM GMT
You find the bet under betfair pools his predictions were as follows:
2*£2 lines
Newcastle AOH 1-1 Correct 1-1
West Ham 1-1
Lyon 1-1
Bradford 2-1
Hull 2-0
Chelsea AOH
Report seathestars February 11, 2015 12:51 PM GMT
If Chelsea win and score at least 4 wins 689k plus will have a chance of doubling their winnings if they correctly pick another correct score on a nominated game.
Report bigpunter58 February 11, 2015 1:16 PM GMT
I would take 80% of the 104k.Its still massive payday if it loses,but if it wins he would probably double the original offer of the 104k for giving up very little
Report Crisp77 February 11, 2015 2:48 PM GMT
It's like that 3 box thing ain't it. You should always swap the box.
Report Sandown February 11, 2015 5:39 PM GMT
This is a classic risk/reward situation and what you shhould do - what he or we should do - given the same situation depends entirely on the circumstances of the individual involved. It's a nice position to be in.

The only way to view this is as the final outcome being a new bet. The guy concerned must take the view that he actually has £104,000 in his hand right now. By letting the bet stand he will be placing £104,000 on the result of a football match which is roughly speaking a 14.0 shot to come off as he stands to win £1.4m.

For a multi-millionaire backer, a bet of £100,000 may be a "normal" bet i.e its what he is used to, the loss of which would not faze him and it probably represents a small proportion of his bettingg bank. In this case, maybe the right course of action is to let the bet stand. Such a person  might even consider that the chnace of him getting the result he wants is less than 14.0 in his opinion and he could see it as a good "value" bet.

However, I think that we can assume that a guy whose original bet was $4 stake, is not a multi-millionare. His bank is going to be in hundreds and not hundreds of thousands. He must ask himself whether he could ever seriously wager a bet of £104,000 of any kind - let alone one which is 14.0 to come off. That is, a chance that he would lose the money 13 out 14 times.

He must ask himself what would be a reasonable bet for him given that he now has £104,000 to play with. Even a bet of £1000 would be a hefty bet. There is no point in thinking about what he might win. He has to consider what he would most certainly lose.And what he could do with £104,000 other than gamble with it.

He has the opportunity to cash out which we never had back in the day, and it was a case then of being unable to lay-off even if we wanted to.

Of course he should cash out. Take the money and then reconsider whether he wants to back Chelsea on any other result.There is no need to think about bravado or behaving the way others might fantasise about. The odds dictate that he cash out a big chunk. If the outcome was say a 1.1 event then maybe he could take a chance on say half of it. But it isn't. Its a longshot.Take the money would be my advice and live with any regret should the outcome be what he wanted.

Remember, " a bird in the hand etc.."is a very sensible financial rule.
Report donny osmond February 11, 2015 6:02 PM GMT
people who routinely take the 104 k without considering odds are better suited to deal or no deal than a gambling site

need to look at the odds of the bet copping




given all that id take 70 k and let the rest run on
Report Sandown February 11, 2015 6:24 PM GMT
given all that id take 70 k and let the rest run on

So you would place a bet of £34K on an outcome when you have been betting in £4 stakes?

To do that you would have to believe that the odds against it happening would be much much shorter than 14.0 for it to be worth entertaining. And that is not going to be the case, is it?
Report Coachbuster February 11, 2015 6:52 PM GMT
Sandown is correct in his first post

treat the Chelsea game as a NEW bet
Report Do wah Diddy February 11, 2015 6:59 PM GMT
WHERE DO YOU FIND BETFAIR POOLS PLEASE,I CANT FIND IT
Report southerner101 February 11, 2015 7:02 PM GMT
whats this about??
Report Do wah Diddy February 11, 2015 7:04 PM GMT
I DONT KNOW BUT PEOPLE REPLY TO IT,
Report Do wah Diddy February 11, 2015 7:06 PM GMT
PEOPLE ARE VERY POLITE ON HERE YOU CAN STICK ANYTHING UP AND SOMEONE WILL ALWAYS GIVE YOU A REPLY
Report David Icke February 11, 2015 7:06 PM GMT
Good luck to whoever it is. Everton will be playing like they did against Liverpool, a double decker eurolines, so Chelsea will struggle to score 4,   2-0 and shut up shop is Jose's modus operandi.
Report donny osmond February 11, 2015 7:08 PM GMT
its not a new bet

if pools betting over a number of days worries you then dont do it

what is the odds of "au home" in chelsea match ?

14 seems about right
Report Do wah Diddy February 11, 2015 7:08 PM GMT
WHEN YOUR LONELY AND HAVE NOTHING TO DO ,JUST STICK A THREAD UP SOMETHING LIKE THIS,
WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME YOU SAW A COW IN A FIELD
Report starfish and coffee February 11, 2015 7:13 PM GMT
Sandown, Have you any interest in the lay side of the bet or just an observer?
Report marychain1 February 11, 2015 7:28 PM GMT
This is Betfair pools - which is actually Colossus pools betting. You find it by going:

Sportsbook > Pools Betting
Report donny osmond February 11, 2015 7:31 PM GMT
just looked its 11/2 on here , seems short !

still happy with 70 k and a shot at 400k
Report Dev1sbear February 11, 2015 7:35 PM GMT
WOW what a dilemma, got to take some profit before the game and maybe a little more at 1/2 time, very best of luck m8
Report Sandown February 11, 2015 7:35 PM GMT
Starfish and coffee

Just an interested observer. The opportunity to cash out is one of the greatest innovations in years and this is a good example of how and when it should be used.

donny osmand

treating it as a new bet helps to change your perspective. Suppose the guy cash out now and had £104,000 sitting in his account. He can take a fresh view on what he might do next. No doubt the original bet was a fun bet with a lot of hope but not a great deal of expectation. He got lucky. What has changed for him to now make a really serious bet of £104,00 all in on an outcome for which he has nothing to give him an edge. this would not be a fun bet. Even  a grand would not be a fun bet for him. What has changed would be 100 grand now sitting in his account. That is no reason to splurge the whole lot on a 14.0 shot. It would be stupid in the extreme.


Do wah Diddy

You will find Betfair Pools on the new Bf site. Follow the POOLS link

https://pools.betfair.com/home
Report GRANTCKING February 11, 2015 7:42 PM GMT
simple face is id be amazed if mugsea score 4, no reason to, 1-0 or 2-0 is enough
Report tomoftrs February 11, 2015 7:47 PM GMT
Never knew this Betfair pools existed, something else to have a flutter on.
Report king of the arbers February 11, 2015 7:49 PM GMT
According to twitter @colossusbets guy cashed in 90% banking £93,657 still playing for 69k with the same again in the bonus.Nice work for £4. Well done my man !!!
Report bigpunter58 February 11, 2015 8:05 PM GMT
glad to see this guy cashed in 90%,very similar to what I suggested earlier,well done mate
Report marychain1 February 11, 2015 8:07 PM GMT
I cashed out £2,200 on this bet off a £4 bet just before Xmas. I think my offer would have gone up to about £5,000 cos I got one more game right but then in the next game I had a home win and Spurs won at Swansea.
Report GRANTCKING February 11, 2015 8:09 PM GMT
chelsea will be doing well to score 1 here
Report Crisp77 February 11, 2015 8:10 PM GMT
Everton might be down to 10 men soon
Report donny osmond February 11, 2015 8:13 PM GMT
nice win anyway...as was yours marychain
Report Sandown February 11, 2015 8:50 PM GMT
The thing to bear in mind is that it is never a mistake to take a profit.Leaving some of the bet to run would help to deal with any regrets should it go in. Still think personally even £10k left in to much but he's got £93k so I won't be shedding any tears for him should he lose out. And this way at least he apparentlly still has a chance of a bonus which adds a lot of value.

Alternatively, he could possibly have laid the outcome (not cash in) for £69k so he would still have a free bet on the bonus to go for should it come off and on the result tonight he would neither lose nor win.
Report donny osmond February 11, 2015 8:52 PM GMT
can you cash out on the bonus ?
Report Sandown February 11, 2015 8:53 PM GMT
Assuming that thhere was enough money up there but there probably wouldn't be. Laying at 11/2 would have been a decent arb too because he is backing at 14.0
Report Sandown February 11, 2015 8:55 PM GMT
Not certain about that.
Report donny osmond February 11, 2015 8:59 PM GMT
sorry sandown, just a general question

somebody should know
Report king of the arbers February 11, 2015 9:20 PM GMT
Yes as soon as he picks his score in his bonus match he will be offered a cash in amount.
Report theSlam February 11, 2015 9:42 PM GMT
dont cash out, i just saw the chelsea score 1-0. i guess its time u go drink poison and die lol
Report GRANTCKING February 11, 2015 9:48 PM GMT

Feb 11, 2015 -- 7:42PM, GRANTCKING wrote:


simple face is id be amazed if mugsea score 4, no reason to, 1-0 or 2-0 is enough


confirmed, still he made some decent £££

Report Do wah Diddy February 11, 2015 9:56 PM GMT
THANK YOU MARY CHAIN AND DONNY OSMOND
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