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The Dragon
15 Sep 14 19:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 50,037 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Hi guys

This thread will start this weekend.

4th year of stats and analysis now . so should be good!!!
Will post Top rated and Value tips with analysis for the selections 8-) . Lets hope it goes well
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Report onthehoy October 5, 2024 10:20 AM BST
canny winner last night, trying a couple of early games today

Burnley @ 1.84


Bundesliga 2(12:00 k.o.)for an Over 2.5 goals bet

Nurnberg v Preussen Munster  @ 1.67

Good Luck All
Report onthehoy October 5, 2024 2:52 PM BST
1 return from 2 bets on early games

home wins
West Ham  1.93
Swansea  2.32

Asian handicaps
Arsenal -2.0  @  1.83
Wolverhampton +0.50  @  1.83
Man City -1.75  @  2.11

Over 2.5 goals
Leicester v Bournemouth  @  1.70

Good Luck All
Report colupaul October 5, 2024 7:58 PM BST
This footy betting lark is hard innit… well for me anyway Laugh 4/5, 10/11 and 5/2 winners in a four fold with the tractor boyz Cry Arc tomorrow, I’ve played the top one based mainly on the jockey booking, stall one interesting… 50/1 ew 4 places, cheers…
Report onthehoy October 6, 2024 12:48 PM BST
Not the best of days yesterday
8 bets with returns off only 3 (and 1 was a returned stake off an AH bet)

3 bets for today to hopefully recover some losses


Of the 3 Premier League games, the only team I feel confident should take a win are Chelsea
and as I fancy they could take a win by greater than a 1 goal margin, I’ll chance a bet on them on the AH @ 1.86 with -1 goal which will, hopefully, at worst give me a return of stake if they only win by a 1 goal margin.
 
Denmark and France for my other 2 bets, Both at 1.71

Randers
Reims

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon October 6, 2024 2:06 PM BST
Main bet Wycombe Landed yestersday so all good on that- Bham let me down for a really nice payoutDevil
Report Whisperingdeath October 6, 2024 6:20 PM BST
Got hammered Friday and Saturday but came good today with some late goals the crucial one at Aberdeen and Lazio plus Samunspor.  Good day at the office. Also gif luck with Betfair 90 mins score and Bet365 2 goal lead. Small margins
Report The Dragon October 11, 2024 4:10 PM BST
no bets this weekend other than a home win for Barrow
Report Whisperingdeath October 12, 2024 10:48 AM BST
Wimbledon
Gillingham
Barrow

Bigly!

Using this treble adding one each of

Draw or Crewe
Draw or Notts County
Draw or Port Vale

and a smaller covering bet of the treble plus one of

Carlisle
Doncaster
MK Dons

Rolling the dice on the three homes. Reckless gambling but all 3 at home so worthy of the punt imho

Also added Falkirk and Partick and draw

Death or glory!

Dragon I would add that Morecombe are one of my bogey teams so might try covering the Barrow.
Report onthehoy October 12, 2024 12:53 PM BST
Loss for me last weekend, 12 bets with only 5 returns

Quiet days betting for me today with only 1 horse racing bet (Sky Luna – 3:05 Hexham) + the following football bets:

I was just going to go for 3 bets today

2 Over 2.5 goals bets
Peterborough v Rotherham @ 1.77
Harrogate Town v Newport County @ 1.87

And 1 Asian Handicap bet
Shrewsbury +0.25 goals @ 2.07

But, have decided to add 1 more (give me something to check in the morning)
Over 2.5 goals double @ 3.5
Croatia v Scotland / Spain v Denmark

  Good Luck All
Report The Dragon October 12, 2024 1:28 PM BST
thanks OTH and WD good luck with your bets
Report Whisperingdeath October 12, 2024 4:14 PM BST
Covered Barror but win twice as much if they win. Wimbledon and Gillingham winning!
Report The Dragon October 12, 2024 4:58 PM BST
some strange scores todayCrazy
Report Whisperingdeath October 12, 2024 5:38 PM BST
Gillingham and tk a lesser extent Barrow we’re shockers!
Report Whisperingdeath October 12, 2024 5:42 PM BST
Just needed Gillingham to make money on the day!

Today we lose!
Report Foinavon October 12, 2024 5:57 PM BST
Barrow lost to Carlisle too on 17th August. I think Morecambe are better than their poor start suggests when they just couldn't find the net and were losing by the odd goal. Since then they have drawn with Fleetwood, Bradford and Notts County.
Report The Dragon October 12, 2024 6:28 PM BST
yup nothing between most teams in div 2 - betting graveyard at the mo
Report Whisperingdeath October 13, 2024 10:53 AM BST
Yes Foinavon

And I am pretty sure I backed all those teams! I took More ombe and draw as a precaution but Gillingham lost too after being 1-0 up. It happens. Playing on last weeks winnings but is still sour!

Looking for a small scratback on England and Slovenia
Report onthehoy October 13, 2024 2:39 PM BST
2 out of 4 yesterday
need both today's bets to come in to turn a weekend football loss into a profit



Spanish 2nd division for an Asian Handicap bet
Almeria +0.25 goals @  2.1

and an Over 1.5 goals double @ 1.69
Finland v England / Greece v  Ireland
Report The Dragon October 17, 2024 2:31 PM BST
small bet on Exeter to win at Shrewsbury tonight  11/8.

form of both teams is very different with exeter getting 10 points from last 4 games with shrewsburu getting 5 from last six
Report The Dragon October 17, 2024 2:49 PM BST
Not sure why Harrogate are such a big price away at Carlisle  4.1 on here looks tempting

Carlilse 4 points in 6 games - Harrogat 10 points in 6 games

Tough div mind to get it right as their is not much between most of the teams- price just looked a bit wrong to me.

carlilse can be layed at 2.04 if you fancy the draw cover
Report Whisperingdeath October 17, 2024 4:17 PM BST
Reading
Wycombe
West Brom

+ Watford and draw

Saturday 12:30
Report Whisperingdeath October 17, 2024 4:23 PM BST
Dortmund
Anderlecht
Monaco

Friday
Report The Dragon October 17, 2024 8:48 PM BST
0-1 ht so far so good
Report BennyBinion1 October 17, 2024 9:28 PM BST
Female linesman way behind play for Exeter second offside goal.
Report The Dragon October 18, 2024 8:22 AM BST
0-2 win nice start to the approaching weekendCool
Report The Dragon October 19, 2024 11:16 AM BST
Its great to have normal football this weekend and my Highest Rated team this weekend is MAN City to beat Wolves at 1/3. No great surprises on that one and hardly a decent price but included in doubles and trebles.

Other highly rated teams are WIGAN to win at lowly cambridge at 13/10 and HARROGATE to beat Carlisle at a very attractive 31/10 Patent treb and singles on all three.

GL with your bets this weekend.
Report The Dragon October 19, 2024 11:33 AM BST
apols missed off CREWE 5/4 to beat Salford
Report kingscrewed October 19, 2024 11:39 AM BST
Sportsbook going Brennan Johnson 2.0 for a shot on target, pretty sure hes scored in his last 6, think the exchange price @1.77 looks big as well.
Report onthehoy October 19, 2024 11:42 AM BST
A 12:00k.o. in Germany to start my days betting
 
Hannover @ 1.93

and as I’ve gone for Spurs in the Correct Score comp to win 3-1

I’ll go for an AH bet in this game
Spurs  -1.5 goals   @ 2.21

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon October 19, 2024 11:44 AM BST
Thanks Guys- will have a dabble on that one KingsCool
Report The Dragon October 19, 2024 1:57 PM BST
johnson bet landed thanks kingsCool
Report kingscrewed October 19, 2024 2:27 PM BST
No worries Dragon, always worth looking at the Saturday dinner boost
Report The Dragon October 19, 2024 2:51 PM BST
Cool
Report onthehoy October 19, 2024 2:53 PM BST
First 2 bets came in, hope they’re not my only winners!!!

7 bets for the afternoon games

Home wins: Man Utd  @1.74,    Newcastle @ 1.76, 
Draws: Ipswich v Everton @ 3.5,  Fulham v Aston Villa @ 3.5
Away winNorwich @ 2.78

I fancy Leicester could take something from their game, so will back them on the AH
Leicester +0.25 goals @ 2.03

and over to European leagues for a short priced Double
Molde / Sparta Rotterdam  @  1.91

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon October 19, 2024 3:08 PM BST
gl oth - bad start for me with camb beating wigan but early days
Report The Dragon October 19, 2024 4:38 PM BST
1-1s killing me at the mo Cry
Report Whisperingdeath October 19, 2024 6:31 PM BST
Bad day compounded with red card for Saliba!
Report onthehoy October 20, 2024 1:41 PM BST
A good start to the day yesterday soon came to and end and I finished the day with only 4 of 9 bets coming in

Just going to go for a double on the Premier League games today

Man City / Liverpool @ 2.15
Report Des Pond October 20, 2024 1:46 PM BST
In the context of the Man City Wolves game, Radio 5 have spent the last 10 minutes talking about Adama Traore. Absolutley bizarre!
Report Whisperingdeath October 20, 2024 2:56 PM BST
Another bad day at the domestic office yesterday but thankfully the FO is not only propping up my sick UK division but contributing profit allowing me to ride.

I didn’t put them up as I have been terrible but Napoli already won in play above evens.

Currently have various selections of

Lyon
Firenze
Atalanta
Besiktas
Union Berlin
Sunderland

It’s a bit crazy

4pm’s

Reims
Toulouse
Antwerp

Add on or mix

Fenerbache
Villarreal

8pm

Barcelona
Marseille
Report Whisperingdeath October 21, 2024 3:39 PM BST
Tuesday

Liking

Wycombe
Walsall
Lincoln
Birmingham
Report The Dragon October 21, 2024 3:41 PM BST
im on walsall, wycombe and doncaster

patent on lincoln port vale and bradford at better prices
Report onthehoy October 22, 2024 3:54 PM BST
Sunday’s double came in so ended the weekend with 5 out of 10 bets for an overall loss

See if I can improve on that with my midweek bets

3 home wins
Cardiff @ 2.0
Birmingham @ 1.81
Bristol Rovers  @ 2.24

1 Asian handicap bet
Bristol City +0.25 @ 1.88

and 1 over 2.5 goals bet
Barnsley v Charlton  2.06

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon October 22, 2024 3:57 PM BST
GL OTH Cool
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 5:12 PM BST
Do midweek / floodlight’s tend to favour home teams

I have gone quite heavy away tonight on Wycombe, Lincoln and Mansfield / draw.

I just fancy a roll tonight and am just hoping I got these notes in the right order for a change!

I have some smaller covering bets and also got on the homes of Walsall, Doncaster, Stevenage, Birmingham and Wrexham, Stockport.

I am feeling lucky punkWink

Same old same old. Been betting on the same sides all season and had one good day but several close to big wins. Tonight is the night I find out if I should be certified!
Report The Dragon October 22, 2024 6:06 PM BST
GL WD -very similiar bets here
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 6:38 PM BST
Yeah mate, quite excited but it is a tough division.
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 6:44 PM BST
Chesterfield and Walsall look like good things, Barrow is a lay. It's a tricky game and I'm using very small stakes compared with what I usually play on Test matches.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 6:46 PM BST
I thought about Chesterfield but they don’t seem to be free scoring. They are definitely one to watch though. Am on Walsall tonight.
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 6:58 PM BST
Yes, I use level stakes so Chesterfield would give the best return of the three.  Port Vale and Notts Co have the best away records in the division but Barrow are strong at home so a draw is very much on the cards. Port Vale should win against Harrogate but I don't like backing odds on away teams.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 7:51 PM BST
Brim and Walsall up already! Good start.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 8:06 PM BST
and Bromley lead at Doncaster!
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 9:47 PM BST
You were right about Chesterfield Whispering. What a super acquisition David McGoldrick is for Notts.
Well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, perhaps I should have done Vale too. What's happening the Gills? They are on your patch.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 10:01 PM BST
No idea about Gillingham after such a brilliant start and the return of Bradley Dack. I will ask around.

Today it was Lincoln! I coulda been a contender! Think I got away with a small loss but I’d either Doncaster or Lincoln had won I’d be singing like Topol, extremely frustrating…so close.
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 11:08 PM BST
A bit unfortunate, both are good teams. Donny are thereabouts but haven't lived up to the hype having lost 4 already.Compare their GD with Walsall and Notts Co for example. Last season they were languishing in the relegation zone before starting a near miraculous run to reach the play-offs. I haven't been watching Lincoln but I know they were up there with the leaders before the last two results.
Report The Dragon October 23, 2024 11:58 AM BST
same here Donny let me down for a decent return -all other system ratings were winners
Report Foinavon October 23, 2024 3:12 PM BST
Does anything stand out for you tonight?
I think Blackburn will edge it and I have backed them but it will be a tight game. Maybe under 2.5 is a safer option.
Report barstool October 23, 2024 5:40 PM BST
Blackburn & Luton.

About 4/1 for the double.
Report Whisperingdeath October 23, 2024 6:02 PM BST
Am not feeling the live tonight. A couple of speculative long shots on the Champions League backing favourites
Report Foinavon October 23, 2024 10:50 PM BST
Blackburn never looked like scoring and the baggies had the best chances. C'est la vie, should have taken my own advice about unders.
Report The Dragon October 24, 2024 9:09 AM BST
sorry had visitors last night so didnt post. I had a small bet on sheff utd which lostSad
Report The Dragon October 25, 2024 10:09 AM BST
Slim pickings from my form based system this weekend with a lot of in form teams playing each other.

Only teams to appear asre as follows

BURNLEY 7/10 (Highest Rated at home to QPR).
Sunderland 4/7 -home vo Oxford
City at 1/8 home v Soton.

TREBLE pays 2/1

Will have a look at other fixtures ans see if their is anything else i fancy.

Good luck all
Report The Dragon October 25, 2024 10:24 AM BST
Apologies missed WYCOMBE at 19/20 to beat Orient as equal highest rated and the BEST VALUE bet.

Wycombe won 5 out of last 6 orient won 1 in 6 with 3 losses in that period and lost 4 out of 6 games away from home so far this season.

Wycombe have won all home games other than their 2 -3 loss to table topper Brum.

GL if you give them a go
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2024 2:28 PM BST
Good shout Dragon.

Same for me going large rather than rolling dice

Sunderland
Burnley
Wycombe 4.73

Plus Sunderland, Burnley, Orient and draw small covering bet. 4.88

Will also add Sheffield United at home to your treble pays 8.27

Got a lot going on with the cricket so am not going to overload this Saturday. Nothing shouts Friday. Will have a look at Sunday on Sunday
Report The Dragon October 25, 2024 2:58 PM BST
Thanks WD - england blowing it in Pakistan so my bet on them is not looking good

sheff utd having difficulty hitting the net so im leaving them alone at the moment
Report Foinavon October 25, 2024 4:44 PM BST
Both Test matches are at a critical stage, Don't fancy England's chances, India are more capable of pulling the game around but need to bowl out NZ for not many more tomorrow. (I'm on the Black Caps so hope they don't). Is that how you see it Whispering?

I will be backing unders Port Vale v AFCW tomorrow, just waiting for the market to settle.
Report Whisperingdeath October 26, 2024 9:19 AM BST
Both great games Founavon. Took a bath on England. They should have done better but I had the chance to cash out and fluffed it but I was on NZ at 5.6 in India, after going 1-0 then to face a home town spinning pitch and it is looking good.

Sticking with Dragons shout. Will consider Sheffield United again
Report kingscrewed October 26, 2024 9:39 AM BST
Morning all, agree about Burnley @ 1.7 went to Q.P.R. game at Derby couple of weeks ago the bought well over 2000 to pride park who passion wasnt matches on the pitch, other than Dembele they looked a poor team and admittedly on based on 1 performance look like they will be fighting relegation.
Other team I like are Villa @ 1.94 although they were leggy last time after champions league in midweek,Bournemouth have a goal in them and arguably are doing better than expected without Solanki, might try villa win and both teams to score @ 3.65 on the exchange.

Gl all
Report onthehoy October 26, 2024 9:56 AM BST
returns from all 5 of my midweek bets, hoping I don’t see the opposite today with all losing bets!!


2 UK games and 2 German games in the early starts to give me 3 bets

2 home wins: Karlsruher @ 2.02 & Watford @ 2.42

and an Over 2.5 goals double @ 2.33
Elversberg v Hamburg / Reading v Bristol Rovers



For the later games:

Home wins:
Aston Villa @ 1.93,    Brighton @ 1.70,    Burnley @ 1.70,   Swansea @ 2.6

Asian Handicaps:
Ipswich +1 @ 1.90,   Man City -2.50 @ 1.91,  Everton +0  @ 2.04


Good Luck All
Report Analyst October 26, 2024 11:08 AM BST
I have laid WBA @ 1.72 - they are at home to Cardiff.

WBA seem to be drawing a lot of games of late - not sure they are quite top 6 material. I saw Boro at Cardiff in August and I didn't think Cardiff were a poor team, not relegation material, but they have struggled until the last 2 games, so starting to get results to match performances. Just feels like the difference in the two teams is not as big to justify 1.72

Ref Sheff United - they have a few key players missing through injury and suspensions and they played a day later than Stoke. I would avoid betting on them unless price is higher than 1.80.
Report Foinavon October 26, 2024 11:53 AM BST
Agreed Whispering. I lost on the England game too mainly because I started with a back of the draw thinking the price would shorten on day one. As it was I ended up chasing my tail. Their spinners were better than ours on the day. On paper Wycombe look a good thing but with all due respect to the dragon, I will be sticking with my own selection today. Good luck to both you and the dragon with your selection.
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 1:09 PM BST
thanks for the posts guys gl to all

need luton to win for a nice away day treble with forest and wednesday last night - just threw 3 quid on it fot a bitof interest -casjh out iss 22 from a 48 payout bit skinny so letting it ride
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 1:12 PM BST
2 up wish id done it with 365 id have been payed out now cash out is 34 now
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 1:50 PM BST
goal coventryCry
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 2:10 PM BST
cashed out after firdst cov goal for 26 now 2-2

i reckon the luton manager maybein trouble withthis start to the season
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 2:21 PM BST
red card luton cash out proved to be a wise move
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 2:29 PM BST
omg 3-2 ft wow
Report Analyst October 26, 2024 2:55 PM BST
Betfred Special

Villa/Brighton/Man City
£10 treble @ 11/4

Ladbroke Special

BTTS all games
Chelsea/Real Madrid/Arsenal £10 @ 3/1
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 3:18 PM BST
wycombe and sunderland winning early doors
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 4:25 PM BST
need a gol from burnley and vila for a cracking day
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 4:38 PM BST
goal villa cmon burnley
Report Whisperingdeath October 26, 2024 4:57 PM BST
Wolves equaliser after 90 mins but Burnley did not win.
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 5:11 PM BST
burnley a costly draw. wycombe a nice winner ..no cigar
Report Analyst October 26, 2024 5:38 PM BST
The lay of WBA made me a Betfair Forum profit overall on todays games bets.

The BetFred Special treble didn't quite come off, because of injury time goals to Bournemouth and Wolves, but as it was @ 11/4 odds not much was placed on it.
Report Foinavon October 26, 2024 6:37 PM BST
Wycombe was a good call at a relatively good price and the WBA comment was well observed. It struck a chord with me after the previous game at Blackburn which I watched but I didn't act on it unfortunately.
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 6:43 PM BST
yes wba call by analyst was top notchCool
Report Analyst October 27, 2024 12:25 AM BST
I have backed my own team (Boro) for only the second time this season for theor trip to Norwich. The prices for them have been in general very low and Carrick has often had 9 or 10 players missing, so the bench was very young and players were playing in some cases not in their best position. In their last game the bench was nearly all experienced players, as long/medium term injured have started to return players like Howson, Clarke, Forss, Conway, McGree and new players at the end of August have settled in, such as loan players Doak and Edmundsen.

Norwich play more open football then most Championship clubs, particular at Carrow Road and its a tougher than average place to get a win. Boro prefer to play this type of team as it gives them more room in the opposition's half. This season Boro have struggled against teams that very quickly get everyone behind the ball and pack out their own defensive quarter. The Championship table this season based on xG has Boro top, but they have failed to turn performances into results - hence they are outside the top 6 in the real table and Norwich are above them. Over a full season I would expect the current Boro squad to win around 50% of their away games, it was 10 away wins out 23 last season and the squad is better this season. If we assume Norwich are 20% better than the average Championship team, that gives Boro an approx 40% chance of winning at Norwich or 2.50 in decimal odds. I got 2.64 on the Betfair Exchange hence a bit of value.
Report onthehoy October 27, 2024 1:13 PM GMT
Well done to any winners here yesterday (couple of the late goals cost me!)

After saying that I hoped all of my Saturday bets weren’t losing bets, I ended up with only 1 winning bet and 2 returned stakes (AH) from my total of 10 bets  for a LSP loss(to 1pt) of -6.69pts.
so, at -2.01pts LSP for the month on this thread, I’m hoping for a better day today to at least break even for the month.


A couple of single bets
Man Utd @ 2.3
Spurs @ 1.98

With only 8 goals conceded this season, I am hoping Newcastle can hold out for for a draw at worst so I’ll chance a bet on Newcastle on the AH with +0.75 goals @ 1.9

and as a last resort, an Over 2.5 goals double @ 2.70
(Denmark) Viborg v Sonderjyske /  Midtjylland v AGF Aarhus
Report The Dragon October 27, 2024 1:49 PM GMT
Boro are now 2.42 and favs at Carrow Road
Report The Dragon October 27, 2024 1:50 PM GMT
gl oth
Report Whisperingdeath October 27, 2024 2:32 PM GMT
Lazio
Lyon
Munchen-1 and -2
Antwerp

Trying to recoup yesterdays losses
Report Foinavon October 27, 2024 3:01 PM GMT
Thanks Analyst. Boro are around 42% now so a fair price according to your figures.
Report Analyst October 27, 2024 5:01 PM GMT
Norwich v Boro - the bet was probably the right bet before the game, but lost - 15 Boro chances to 9 for Norwich. It happens.
Report Foinavon October 27, 2024 5:19 PM GMT
Unlucky. Many would consider 1-3 as a cash out situation or at least create a bet to nothing.
Report The Dragon October 28, 2024 9:23 AM GMT
yes it was a great shout and a tad unlucky 365 payout on 2 goal lead
Report The Dragon October 29, 2024 8:42 AM GMT
Reading 14/5 and Bolton 13/10 look big for two singles and a double tonight
Report onthehoy October 29, 2024 1:57 PM GMT
My only return from Sunday’s 4 bets was ½ my AH stake (Toon game).

I agree with you on Bolton, Dragon, not so sure about Reading so will play safe on that game

3 selections from League 1 tonight

Bolton @  2.34
Reading +0.5 goals on AH  @ 1.98
Over 2.5 goals - Stockport v Reading  @  1.81

Good Luck ALL
Report The Dragon October 29, 2024 3:39 PM GMT
reading are going well oth with 5 wins in last 6 as opposed to stockport who have won 1 in 6.

i just thought they were way too big at 14/5 based on current form
Report The Dragon October 29, 2024 3:39 PM GMT
gl with your betsCool
Report The Dragon November 1, 2024 1:54 PM GMT
SUNDERLAND away at QPR are the systems Highest rated team this weekend and I took 21/20 (365) lastnight.

Supported that bet with three aways in Prem - Arsenal -Evens,City 4/7 and Everton 13/8.

4 singles - main bet sunderland - lucky 15 and acca

GL all
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