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The Dragon
15 Sep 14 20:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 54,217 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Hi guys

This thread will start this weekend.

4th year of stats and analysis now . so should be good!!!
Will post Top rated and Value tips with analysis for the selections 8-) . Lets hope it goes well
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Report The Dragon May 18, 2025 7:42 PM BST
brentford did for meCry
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 21, 2025 3:09 PM BST
Spurs to be winning at half time @ 4.1 looks like ad decent bet to me
Report The Dragon May 21, 2025 3:32 PM BST
thanks spy i was looking for a bet in this game so will follow u in on that one, looking gorward to the game, shame spurs look to have a number of cricial players injured

COYS
Report The Dragon May 21, 2025 8:47 PM BST
great call from the spy -cheers m8
Report Foinavon May 21, 2025 8:55 PM BST
Little Jack Horner
Sat in the corner,
Eating a Christmas pie;
He put in his thumb,
And pulled out a plum,
And said ‘What a good boy am I.

Nice one, The Spy.
Report The Dragon May 21, 2025 8:56 PM BST
CoolLaugh
Report kingscrewed May 22, 2025 9:40 AM BST
Morning all, just seen sportsbook going 1.61 for Jamie Smith (England wicketkeeper) to take 2 or more catches in the first innings against Zimbabwe. The English bowling attack aren't particularly swing bowlers but think with Trent bridge being a ground that tends to swing and a few of the Zimbabwe batsmen not used to the conditions looks a bit of value
Report Foinavon May 22, 2025 11:00 AM BST
Thanks Kings, I can't see much value in the exchange prices at the moment so waiting to see how it goes.
Report easyrider May 23, 2025 11:15 AM BST
Unusual amount of dosh on U2.5 in the Wolves game. Especially as there is barely a bean on every other game yet.
I would have been inclined to be on Overs myself.
Report The Dragon May 23, 2025 1:23 PM BST
defo looks an overs game for me er with an away win on the cards based on currrent form
Report Foinavon May 23, 2025 1:57 PM BST
I rated this a Desmond using my primitive method, so overs. Every backer has a layer but can't explain the activity.
Report easyrider May 23, 2025 3:22 PM BST
One to watch.
Report Foinavon May 23, 2025 7:29 PM BST
I will be watching Napoli tonight. I think they will want to win in style in front of their fans perhaps 2-0 or 3-0. I will just have small bets on the CS market.
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 7:08 AM BST
Sheffield Utd v Sunderland

BTTS is trading @ 5/4 on here and as you are all aware this is a big price for this type of bet.

So that’s my bet today. Both teams to score @ 2.2
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 8:56 AM BST
Thanks SPY GL m8
Report kingscrewed May 24, 2025 12:11 PM BST
Cricket bet went down


356 are boosting the btts in the playoff final to 3.0
Report Foinavon May 24, 2025 12:28 PM BST
I still haven't found a bet for the Test match. The 1.12 disappeared along with the threat of rain.
There will be better things to come along this summer.
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 12:40 PM BST
Wow…..that’s some sort of price Kings, thanks for the info. I thought the market was wrong but maybe it’s my thinking that is incorrect. Anyway I always stick with my gut feeling and it’s done me well over the years. I may even go in again at that price. I understand the logic of bet365…..that is they feel both sides will try not to lose rather than win…..however football doesn’t work like that…..it is never so black and white.
This is why my strike rate on horses is so high….you must consider all of the variables.

On another note…….just watched Jürgen Klopp Q & As on utube…enjoyed it very much
Report Analyst May 24, 2025 1:27 PM BST
I can't find the Bet365 offer price of 3.0 on the Championship Playoff Final - All I can find is 11/10 (2.10).
Report Analyst May 24, 2025 1:28 PM BST
Forget that - just seen Super boost price of 2/1.
Report kingscrewed May 24, 2025 1:29 PM BST
It's under popula analyst
Report Analyst May 24, 2025 1:30 PM BST
They limited me to £10.
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 1:31 PM BST
its on the front page analyst
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 1:48 PM BST
Just managed to find 2/1 offer on my Mrs account had max of £40 on
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 3:28 PM BST
just need sland to score now
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 4:44 PM BST
boommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm vwd spy great call
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:47 PM BST
Oui oui ……thanks kings for the 2/1 heads up ….cheers m8 …..extra £80 in the Spy bank
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:47 PM BST
Oui oui ……thanks kings for the 2/1 heads up ….cheers m8 …..extra £80 in the Spy bank
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:47 PM BST
Oui oui ……thanks kings for the 2/1 heads up ….cheers m8 …..extra £80 in the Spy bank
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:48 PM BST
Cheers Dragon….enjoy the dough
Report Foinavon May 24, 2025 5:42 PM BST
PSG should boss Reims tonight (Coupe de France). Although they could run riot with a hatful of goals, I suspect this is worth another 2-0 plus 3-0 split on the CS market so that's what I will be doing. Both prices are currently 7.6
Report Foinavon May 24, 2025 10:23 PM BST
Riding my luck with that one, all the goals coming in the first half. Still two CS in 2 days was nice, I have something in mind for tomorrow.
Report The Dragon May 25, 2025 8:41 AM BST
nice one
Report easyrider May 25, 2025 9:16 AM BST
Yes well done Foinavon, we wait with bated breath.
Report Foinavon May 25, 2025 10:55 AM BST
Ha ha, quite so, easyrider. Just trying to beat the forum jinx with a hat trick but they always fall at the last don't they? Correct scores are very risky, Caveat emptor.
Same theme, strong home team hopefully won't concede.
Union SG v Gent 2-0 and 3-0  currently 7.4 and 7.6 respectively although those might change nearer the kick off. In the nine playoff rounds so far Union SG scored 19 and conceded 2, Gent scored 3 and conceded 29.
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 25, 2025 12:35 PM BST
A little bit of darts today…it’s the Dutch Open

Danny Noppert @ even money….thats my bet today

Kicks off at 1.30 pm on sky sports
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 25, 2025 12:36 PM BST
Best of luck Foinavon
Report Analyst May 25, 2025 1:23 PM BST
Cheers Kings - 2/1 on BTTS in a English Play Off game is always value - true odds would have been around 40% (6/4)

I also found out through comments on here Bet365 are knocking my stakes back compared with some other punters.
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 25, 2025 1:57 PM BST
Boooooom….well done Danny boy
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 25, 2025 1:57 PM BST
Boooooom….well done Danny boy
Report onthehoy May 25, 2025 3:26 PM BST
Well done to the Makems for their win yesterday (I backed 1-1), Can’t wait for the first Toon v Sunderland game

current LSP @ +2.08pts for the month, -13.43pts for the season, so need all below to win today

3 singles: Brentford @  2.22…...Chelsea @  2.10…...Ipswich v West Ham  DRAW @ 3.95

Treble @ 2.75: Man City / Newcastle / Liverpool

Over 2.5  goals  @ 3.22:  Forest v Chelsea / Wolves v Brentford / Newcastle v Everton

BTTS @ 2.83:  Ipswich v West Ham / Wolves v Brentford / Spur v Brighton

Fingers crossed Newcastle can take a comfortable win and don’t leave it until the last minute (2-0 up at HT would be good)

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon May 25, 2025 4:17 PM BST
got a 4 timer up at thecurragh and shoved a few quid today on the outsiders, everton palace and forest
Report Foinavon May 25, 2025 4:56 PM BST
Thanks, The Spy, well done with the darts.
Report The Dragon May 25, 2025 6:02 PM BST
got an  everton win so not too bad
Report Foinavon May 25, 2025 6:23 PM BST
WD The Dragon, Everton were a good price if I remember correctly.
My bet has been killed by a Gent equaliser right on half-time, c'est la vie.
Report The Dragon May 25, 2025 6:50 PM BST
11.50 on here foinCool
Report Foinavon May 25, 2025 6:58 PM BST
That's very nice. Happy
Report The Dragon May 25, 2025 7:04 PM BST
only has a few quid on itScared
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 26, 2025 6:00 AM BST
Good morning all. Today’s main bet is a horse running in 16.30 race at Windsor. The name of the horse is Houston.
I am very hopeful of Houston running a very big race today and is trading around 9/1 on here and 2/1 the place (first 3)
My main bet is going to be on the place, however I do believe that Hannons charge has a live chance of winning the race.

Main bet Houstonn to be placed @ 3.05

Small stake Houstonn to win @ 10.5
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 8:18 AM BST
Thanks spy will take a butchers
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 8:23 AM BST
9s are well gone 15/2 best price -they know the spy is on it!!!!!
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 8:53 AM BST
using the same logic as the spy i have backed Tommie Beau in the 15.30 at cartmel - main bet is place at 2.42 small bet win at 8.4

gl all
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 26, 2025 1:08 PM BST
Good luck Dragon
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 1:21 PM BST
thanks
Report onthehoy May 26, 2025 2:06 PM BST
I lost money on the day but it wasn't a bad day with Newcastle just hanging on for a top 5 finish

The last day of the PL resulted in 2 winning bets from 6 for just over a 1pt loss, putting me on +0.99pts for the month and an end of season LSP loss of -14.52pts loss (commission accounted for)


As for the horses, Ive got 1 today that I backed last time out at a big price that didn’t have the best of runs, so I’ll be on again today. Last time out he badly stumbled at the start and didn’t get a clear run when keeping on in the final furlong
IRV  5:45 Redcar, currently about 18.0

Dragon, the only other runner I considered today runs in the same race as yours… 3:30 Cartmel, BUY SOME TIME, 
Might try in a forecast with yours and an EW double with Thespy’s selection
Good Luck with the horses above
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 2:28 PM BST
mines dfrifting like the prverbial othSad
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 3:14 PM BST
Unders the obvious bet on League 2  play off, but far too short to be worthwhile. So had a few quid on 0-0 at 7.4
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 3:15 PM BST
gl des
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 3:20 PM BST
cheers Dragon, I'Mm thinking one goal will decide this. Walsall very slight favs, but very tight. GL with all of the horse bets, btw. Not my bag, but hope for some winners for you.
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 3:39 PM BST
ffs nabbed on the lineCry thought it looked it had won so unluckuy  got the place
Report onthehoy May 26, 2025 3:42 PM BST
aye unlucky there dragon,pipped at the post, I had the video up to watch but the picture qaulity was very poor!!
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 3:45 PM BST
thanks oth hopefully youll get  the ew double
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 3:47 PM BST
on ilikethewayyourthinkin in the next at cartmel

looking good des at 0-0 as its nearly ht
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 3:49 PM BST
1-0 Wimbledon just before HT.
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 3:50 PM BST
Cry unlucky
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 3:52 PM BST
laid most off bit by bit, still got some at 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 02 and 2-0 so it would take a fairly unlikely score for me to lose.
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 3:54 PM BST
ok thats goodCool
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 4:15 PM BST
oh dear looked all over the winner and another secondCry
Report easykc1 May 26, 2025 4:27 PM BST
whats the point of saying you have had a few quid on 0.0 then when a goals scored you have suddenly laid it off and backed other scores ,,if they dont come in you will still win no doubt with another lay ,,stayed 0,0 and everyone would say great pick ,,walofs
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 4:29 PM BST
spys selection has 9 non runners ffsCry
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 26, 2025 4:34 PM BST
Ran a shocker
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 4:37 PM BST

May 26, 2025 -- 4:27PM, easykc1 wrote:


whats the point of saying you have had a few quid on 0.0 then when a goals scored you have suddenly laid it off and backed other scores ,,if they dont come in you will still win no doubt with another lay ,,stayed 0,0 and everyone would say great pick ,,walofs


If you been on here a lot, you would know that I frequently back o-o to trade. and if it get's near HT still 0-0 I can lay off at a profit. I also often cover 1-0, 0-1- 1-1 and somne other scores. It's called dutching and I Nfdo it a lot. somtimes gtoe swrong, but overall works for me. anyone who knows anything about these teams knows that one goal will probably settle it. Thanks for your input, though.

Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 4:44 PM BST

May 26, 2025 -- 4:27PM, easykc1 wrote:


whats the point of saying you have had a few quid on 0.0 then when a goals scored you have suddenly laid it off and backed other scores ,,if they dont come in you will still win no doubt with another lay ,,stayed 0,0 and everyone would say great pick ,,walofs


I do these unders bets and 0-0 bets a lot, if you know anything about these 2 teams it's clear that one goal would likely settle it. I often back 0-0 when unders is too low and if ity gets near HT and still 0-0 there is ample opportunity to lay off at a profit

0 - 0
6.4
£9.00
£48.60
0 - 0
7.2
£10.00
£62.00

0 - 0
2.98
£1.00
£1.98
0 - 0
3.15
£1.00
£2.15
0 - 0
3.35
£1.00
£2.35
0 - 0
3.45
£1.00
£2.45
0 - 0
3.75
£1.00
£2.75
0 - 0
4.1
£1.00
£3.10
0 - 0
4.3
£1.00
£3.30
0 - 0
4.5
£1.00
£3.50
I don't lie about my bets m8.

Report Foinavon May 26, 2025 4:47 PM BST
Many of us use the CS market for trading purposes and 0-0 is often a convenient short term hedge. Dutching is also a common technique and I don't doubt Des Pond's word. If I post anything I usually post both or all selections on the market. Today I posted my Wimbledon trade on another thread.
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 4:58 PM BST
Thanks Foinavon, a useful and informed post.
For the record, a modest profit of 25 quid
1 - 0
£25.26   
1 - 1
£11.08   
1 - 2
-£37.00
0 - 1
-£2.30   
0 - 2
£10.00
2 - 0
£9.55
Report Foinavon May 26, 2025 5:04 PM BST
Well done Des. My trade is on clydebank's RP thread, traded out at HT happy with that but in hindsight...
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 5:06 PM BST
Cool
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 5:06 PM BST
1-0 ft Walsall must be gutted given how far they were ahead at the top of the league not so long ago
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 5:09 PM BST
yea, they were marginal favs at KO but Dons defended stoutly and Saddlers never really looked like scoring.
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 5:14 PM BST
market for div 2 nxt season will be interesting. i reckon walsall will be shorter than they shd be.

i did try to find out from any walsall supporters on here what the reason for the implosion was but got no replies. maybe there are no walsall supporters on the forumShocked
Report Foinavon May 26, 2025 5:40 PM BST
Notts Co have sacked Maynard, I wonder if they will bring back Luke Williams who had a successful period with them before departing for Swansea.
Colchester and Salford had good late runs, need to keep an eye on transfers but I like the look of both especially the former. Bromley will consolidate and new boys Barnet got over 100 points in the National league. One thing is certain, it's going to be competitive again.
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 6:08 PM BST
yup foin  div 1 is going to be interesting too. doubt there will be a runaway winner like bham. hoping stockport can get over the line this time
Report Foinavon May 26, 2025 6:29 PM BST
I've not followed Div 1 at all as I spent a lot of time watching league 2 games and following developments there. I will do the same next season Dominus volens and will look out for your comments on L1.
Report The Dragon May 26, 2025 6:31 PM BST
ditto  hopefully ill get to edgley park more often next seasonCool
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 7:28 PM BST
Ross County vs Livingston scottish play off.
Ross County slight favs, but they got lucky in the 1st leg. I fancy Livingston to qualify.
Also fancy Unders at 1.7.
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 8:08 PM BST
1-0 R County, unders touched 1.53. but bad start for Livi.
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 8:26 PM BST
2-0. bad mistake, that'll be that, probably
Report Foinavon May 26, 2025 9:21 PM BST
2-3 now Des! Excited
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 9:41 PM BST
yep, unders long gone but Livingston almost there. Scared
Report Des Pond May 26, 2025 9:55 PM BST
2-4 Livingston, never in doubt. Mischief
Report Foinavon May 26, 2025 10:02 PM BST
Laugh Cool
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 7:40 AM BST
nice one DesCool
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 8:19 AM BST
I rate Jim Crowley as a jockey and he has three horses taht are all being backed at Leicester today.

They are:

rock on thunder 14.00 at 5/1
alfareqa 15.00 and at 8/5 - i got bigger last night
night step 16.35 at 7/1

the last two are both trained by owen burrows who crowley has a good strike rate with.

doing multiple bets on all 3 and i particuarly like alfareqa.

good luck if u give any of them a go- i do like the burrows double
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 2:06 PM BST
first one is a winner  cmon.
hope some of you were on
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 2:08 PM BST
top jock is jimCool
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 2:57 PM BST
drifting big time in the next pinita sonata backed into odds on favShocked
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 2:58 PM BST
2/1 now
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 3:05 PM BST
second  market got it rightCry
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 3:55 PM BST
apols i missed his runner in the next cupolaBlush
Report The Dragon May 27, 2025 4:40 PM BST
first and two secondsPlain
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