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The Dragon
15 Sep 14 20:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 50,171 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Hi guys

This thread will start this weekend.

4th year of stats and analysis now . so should be good!!!
Will post Top rated and Value tips with analysis for the selections 8-) . Lets hope it goes well
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Report The Dragon October 22, 2024 6:06 PM BST
GL WD -very similiar bets here
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 6:38 PM BST
Yeah mate, quite excited but it is a tough division.
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 6:44 PM BST
Chesterfield and Walsall look like good things, Barrow is a lay. It's a tricky game and I'm using very small stakes compared with what I usually play on Test matches.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 6:46 PM BST
I thought about Chesterfield but they don’t seem to be free scoring. They are definitely one to watch though. Am on Walsall tonight.
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 6:58 PM BST
Yes, I use level stakes so Chesterfield would give the best return of the three.  Port Vale and Notts Co have the best away records in the division but Barrow are strong at home so a draw is very much on the cards. Port Vale should win against Harrogate but I don't like backing odds on away teams.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 7:51 PM BST
Brim and Walsall up already! Good start.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 8:06 PM BST
and Bromley lead at Doncaster!
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 9:47 PM BST
You were right about Chesterfield Whispering. What a super acquisition David McGoldrick is for Notts.
Well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, perhaps I should have done Vale too. What's happening the Gills? They are on your patch.
Report Whisperingdeath October 22, 2024 10:01 PM BST
No idea about Gillingham after such a brilliant start and the return of Bradley Dack. I will ask around.

Today it was Lincoln! I coulda been a contender! Think I got away with a small loss but I’d either Doncaster or Lincoln had won I’d be singing like Topol, extremely frustrating…so close.
Report Foinavon October 22, 2024 11:08 PM BST
A bit unfortunate, both are good teams. Donny are thereabouts but haven't lived up to the hype having lost 4 already.Compare their GD with Walsall and Notts Co for example. Last season they were languishing in the relegation zone before starting a near miraculous run to reach the play-offs. I haven't been watching Lincoln but I know they were up there with the leaders before the last two results.
Report The Dragon October 23, 2024 11:58 AM BST
same here Donny let me down for a decent return -all other system ratings were winners
Report Foinavon October 23, 2024 3:12 PM BST
Does anything stand out for you tonight?
I think Blackburn will edge it and I have backed them but it will be a tight game. Maybe under 2.5 is a safer option.
Report barstool October 23, 2024 5:40 PM BST
Blackburn & Luton.

About 4/1 for the double.
Report Whisperingdeath October 23, 2024 6:02 PM BST
Am not feeling the live tonight. A couple of speculative long shots on the Champions League backing favourites
Report Foinavon October 23, 2024 10:50 PM BST
Blackburn never looked like scoring and the baggies had the best chances. C'est la vie, should have taken my own advice about unders.
Report The Dragon October 24, 2024 9:09 AM BST
sorry had visitors last night so didnt post. I had a small bet on sheff utd which lostSad
Report The Dragon October 25, 2024 10:09 AM BST
Slim pickings from my form based system this weekend with a lot of in form teams playing each other.

Only teams to appear asre as follows

BURNLEY 7/10 (Highest Rated at home to QPR).
Sunderland 4/7 -home vo Oxford
City at 1/8 home v Soton.

TREBLE pays 2/1

Will have a look at other fixtures ans see if their is anything else i fancy.

Good luck all
Report The Dragon October 25, 2024 10:24 AM BST
Apologies missed WYCOMBE at 19/20 to beat Orient as equal highest rated and the BEST VALUE bet.

Wycombe won 5 out of last 6 orient won 1 in 6 with 3 losses in that period and lost 4 out of 6 games away from home so far this season.

Wycombe have won all home games other than their 2 -3 loss to table topper Brum.

GL if you give them a go
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2024 2:28 PM BST
Good shout Dragon.

Same for me going large rather than rolling dice

Sunderland
Burnley
Wycombe 4.73

Plus Sunderland, Burnley, Orient and draw small covering bet. 4.88

Will also add Sheffield United at home to your treble pays 8.27

Got a lot going on with the cricket so am not going to overload this Saturday. Nothing shouts Friday. Will have a look at Sunday on Sunday
Report The Dragon October 25, 2024 2:58 PM BST
Thanks WD - england blowing it in Pakistan so my bet on them is not looking good

sheff utd having difficulty hitting the net so im leaving them alone at the moment
Report Foinavon October 25, 2024 4:44 PM BST
Both Test matches are at a critical stage, Don't fancy England's chances, India are more capable of pulling the game around but need to bowl out NZ for not many more tomorrow. (I'm on the Black Caps so hope they don't). Is that how you see it Whispering?

I will be backing unders Port Vale v AFCW tomorrow, just waiting for the market to settle.
Report Whisperingdeath October 26, 2024 9:19 AM BST
Both great games Founavon. Took a bath on England. They should have done better but I had the chance to cash out and fluffed it but I was on NZ at 5.6 in India, after going 1-0 then to face a home town spinning pitch and it is looking good.

Sticking with Dragons shout. Will consider Sheffield United again
Report kingscrewed October 26, 2024 9:39 AM BST
Morning all, agree about Burnley @ 1.7 went to Q.P.R. game at Derby couple of weeks ago the bought well over 2000 to pride park who passion wasnt matches on the pitch, other than Dembele they looked a poor team and admittedly on based on 1 performance look like they will be fighting relegation.
Other team I like are Villa @ 1.94 although they were leggy last time after champions league in midweek,Bournemouth have a goal in them and arguably are doing better than expected without Solanki, might try villa win and both teams to score @ 3.65 on the exchange.

Gl all
Report onthehoy October 26, 2024 9:56 AM BST
returns from all 5 of my midweek bets, hoping I don’t see the opposite today with all losing bets!!


2 UK games and 2 German games in the early starts to give me 3 bets

2 home wins: Karlsruher @ 2.02 & Watford @ 2.42

and an Over 2.5 goals double @ 2.33
Elversberg v Hamburg / Reading v Bristol Rovers



For the later games:

Home wins:
Aston Villa @ 1.93,    Brighton @ 1.70,    Burnley @ 1.70,   Swansea @ 2.6

Asian Handicaps:
Ipswich +1 @ 1.90,   Man City -2.50 @ 1.91,  Everton +0  @ 2.04


Good Luck All
Report Analyst October 26, 2024 11:08 AM BST
I have laid WBA @ 1.72 - they are at home to Cardiff.

WBA seem to be drawing a lot of games of late - not sure they are quite top 6 material. I saw Boro at Cardiff in August and I didn't think Cardiff were a poor team, not relegation material, but they have struggled until the last 2 games, so starting to get results to match performances. Just feels like the difference in the two teams is not as big to justify 1.72

Ref Sheff United - they have a few key players missing through injury and suspensions and they played a day later than Stoke. I would avoid betting on them unless price is higher than 1.80.
Report Foinavon October 26, 2024 11:53 AM BST
Agreed Whispering. I lost on the England game too mainly because I started with a back of the draw thinking the price would shorten on day one. As it was I ended up chasing my tail. Their spinners were better than ours on the day. On paper Wycombe look a good thing but with all due respect to the dragon, I will be sticking with my own selection today. Good luck to both you and the dragon with your selection.
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 1:09 PM BST
thanks for the posts guys gl to all

need luton to win for a nice away day treble with forest and wednesday last night - just threw 3 quid on it fot a bitof interest -casjh out iss 22 from a 48 payout bit skinny so letting it ride
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 1:12 PM BST
2 up wish id done it with 365 id have been payed out now cash out is 34 now
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 1:50 PM BST
goal coventryCry
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 2:10 PM BST
cashed out after firdst cov goal for 26 now 2-2

i reckon the luton manager maybein trouble withthis start to the season
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 2:21 PM BST
red card luton cash out proved to be a wise move
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 2:29 PM BST
omg 3-2 ft wow
Report Analyst October 26, 2024 2:55 PM BST
Betfred Special

Villa/Brighton/Man City
£10 treble @ 11/4

Ladbroke Special

BTTS all games
Chelsea/Real Madrid/Arsenal £10 @ 3/1
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 3:18 PM BST
wycombe and sunderland winning early doors
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 4:25 PM BST
need a gol from burnley and vila for a cracking day
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 4:38 PM BST
goal villa cmon burnley
Report Whisperingdeath October 26, 2024 4:57 PM BST
Wolves equaliser after 90 mins but Burnley did not win.
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 5:11 PM BST
burnley a costly draw. wycombe a nice winner ..no cigar
Report Analyst October 26, 2024 5:38 PM BST
The lay of WBA made me a Betfair Forum profit overall on todays games bets.

The BetFred Special treble didn't quite come off, because of injury time goals to Bournemouth and Wolves, but as it was @ 11/4 odds not much was placed on it.
Report Foinavon October 26, 2024 6:37 PM BST
Wycombe was a good call at a relatively good price and the WBA comment was well observed. It struck a chord with me after the previous game at Blackburn which I watched but I didn't act on it unfortunately.
Report The Dragon October 26, 2024 6:43 PM BST
yes wba call by analyst was top notchCool
Report Analyst October 27, 2024 12:25 AM BST
I have backed my own team (Boro) for only the second time this season for theor trip to Norwich. The prices for them have been in general very low and Carrick has often had 9 or 10 players missing, so the bench was very young and players were playing in some cases not in their best position. In their last game the bench was nearly all experienced players, as long/medium term injured have started to return players like Howson, Clarke, Forss, Conway, McGree and new players at the end of August have settled in, such as loan players Doak and Edmundsen.

Norwich play more open football then most Championship clubs, particular at Carrow Road and its a tougher than average place to get a win. Boro prefer to play this type of team as it gives them more room in the opposition's half. This season Boro have struggled against teams that very quickly get everyone behind the ball and pack out their own defensive quarter. The Championship table this season based on xG has Boro top, but they have failed to turn performances into results - hence they are outside the top 6 in the real table and Norwich are above them. Over a full season I would expect the current Boro squad to win around 50% of their away games, it was 10 away wins out 23 last season and the squad is better this season. If we assume Norwich are 20% better than the average Championship team, that gives Boro an approx 40% chance of winning at Norwich or 2.50 in decimal odds. I got 2.64 on the Betfair Exchange hence a bit of value.
Report onthehoy October 27, 2024 1:13 PM GMT
Well done to any winners here yesterday (couple of the late goals cost me!)

After saying that I hoped all of my Saturday bets weren’t losing bets, I ended up with only 1 winning bet and 2 returned stakes (AH) from my total of 10 bets  for a LSP loss(to 1pt) of -6.69pts.
so, at -2.01pts LSP for the month on this thread, I’m hoping for a better day today to at least break even for the month.


A couple of single bets
Man Utd @ 2.3
Spurs @ 1.98

With only 8 goals conceded this season, I am hoping Newcastle can hold out for for a draw at worst so I’ll chance a bet on Newcastle on the AH with +0.75 goals @ 1.9

and as a last resort, an Over 2.5 goals double @ 2.70
(Denmark) Viborg v Sonderjyske /  Midtjylland v AGF Aarhus
Report The Dragon October 27, 2024 1:49 PM GMT
Boro are now 2.42 and favs at Carrow Road
Report The Dragon October 27, 2024 1:50 PM GMT
gl oth
Report Whisperingdeath October 27, 2024 2:32 PM GMT
Lazio
Lyon
Munchen-1 and -2
Antwerp

Trying to recoup yesterdays losses
Report Foinavon October 27, 2024 3:01 PM GMT
Thanks Analyst. Boro are around 42% now so a fair price according to your figures.
Report Analyst October 27, 2024 5:01 PM GMT
Norwich v Boro - the bet was probably the right bet before the game, but lost - 15 Boro chances to 9 for Norwich. It happens.
Report Foinavon October 27, 2024 5:19 PM GMT
Unlucky. Many would consider 1-3 as a cash out situation or at least create a bet to nothing.
Report The Dragon October 28, 2024 9:23 AM GMT
yes it was a great shout and a tad unlucky 365 payout on 2 goal lead
Report The Dragon October 29, 2024 8:42 AM GMT
Reading 14/5 and Bolton 13/10 look big for two singles and a double tonight
Report onthehoy October 29, 2024 1:57 PM GMT
My only return from Sunday’s 4 bets was ½ my AH stake (Toon game).

I agree with you on Bolton, Dragon, not so sure about Reading so will play safe on that game

3 selections from League 1 tonight

Bolton @  2.34
Reading +0.5 goals on AH  @ 1.98
Over 2.5 goals - Stockport v Reading  @  1.81

Good Luck ALL
Report The Dragon October 29, 2024 3:39 PM GMT
reading are going well oth with 5 wins in last 6 as opposed to stockport who have won 1 in 6.

i just thought they were way too big at 14/5 based on current form
Report The Dragon October 29, 2024 3:39 PM GMT
gl with your betsCool
Report The Dragon November 1, 2024 1:54 PM GMT
SUNDERLAND away at QPR are the systems Highest rated team this weekend and I took 21/20 (365) lastnight.

Supported that bet with three aways in Prem - Arsenal -Evens,City 4/7 and Everton 13/8.

4 singles - main bet sunderland - lucky 15 and acca

GL all
Report Whisperingdeath November 2, 2024 9:18 AM GMT
Looking at Arsenal

Birmingham testing players? Should still win

Osasuna good home record
Report Whisperingdeath November 2, 2024 9:44 AM GMT
Hull
Boro
Sunderland

and Leeds -1
Report kingscrewed November 2, 2024 9:47 AM GMT
Sportsbook going Thomas Party 2.0 to commit a foul, he's averaging 1.58 per 90 mins this season. If he plays right back he's likely against Anthony Gordon, who's been fouled 24 times in 8 games, or if centre mid will be against Bruno Guimaraes who's been fouled 32 times in 9 games. They are actually the 2 most fouled players in the league so far this season.
Report The Dragon November 2, 2024 11:18 AM GMT
thanks Kings -great info and im on

GL WD
Report onthehoy November 2, 2024 11:50 AM GMT
Finished October with 2 winners from 3 bets to end the month on loss, -4.41pts (LSP to 1pt)

see if I can get off to a good start in November with 2 bets in the early games:

Every week I think this is the time for Newcastle’s forward line to start knocking in the goals, so it is fingers crossed today that we can score more than 1 goal to give me a good chance of taking a profit from my Asian Handicap bet: Newcastle +0.5 goals @ 1.98

and in the Championship I’ll go for Blackburn v Sheff Utd to end in a DRAW @ 3.30

Good Luck All
Report Whisperingdeath November 2, 2024 12:08 PM GMT
Wotabout Sunderland Hoy?

Any local knowledge?
Report The Dragon November 2, 2024 12:39 PM GMT
oth is a newcastle fan MM is yer man for Sunderland
Report morpteh mackem November 2, 2024 12:42 PM GMT

Nov 2, 2024 -- 7:08AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


Wotabout Sunderland Hoy?Any local knowledge?


Would be typical Sunderland  to mess up today, Rigg is missing but hopefully have enough, surprised at our price , expecting odds on tbh.
Patterson also missing and  replacement keeper im not sure about, ok last week but didnt have much to do tbh

Report Whisperingdeath November 2, 2024 1:23 PM GMT
I fancy Sunderland today. Thanks for update

Gillingham

Never back them when they should win. Never back against them when they lose.

At home to Blackpool crazy odds against them.
Report The Dragon November 2, 2024 1:28 PM GMT
bet landed excellent stuff kings thanks ever so - op tipp and great start to a betting saturday cheers
Report onthehoy November 2, 2024 1:32 PM GMT
Whisperingdeath, i tried to reply earlier to say MM was your man for Sunderland news (I know nowt) but I couldn't log back in to the forum!! (as happens often now)

hoping the Toon can hang on and could do with Blackurn getting a goal for my other bet.
Report Whisperingdeath November 2, 2024 1:33 PM GMT
Yes well fine. Sadly I backed Arsenal!
Report Analyst November 2, 2024 2:37 PM GMT
Betfred - Both teams to Score Bonus (Shop Coupon)

Five Fourfolds from games @

Bournemouth
Forest
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Worthing
Report Whisperingdeath November 2, 2024 2:49 PM GMT
Thanks Hoy

I lost on Blackburn too!

Hopefully the mackem has it right!
Report onthehoy November 2, 2024 2:56 PM GMT
The goals didn't come for Newcastle, but 1 was enough today :-)  pity about my other bet on the Draw!

so on to the 3pm games

I fancy Man City/Liverpool/Hull to win
so will try a treble @ 3.20

plus a Man City/Liverpool double at even money

and to finish today's betting, I'll go for 2 bets on the Ipswich V Leicester game

BTTS @ 1.61
+ Asian Handicap: Leicester @ 1.9 with +0.25 goals


cheers and Good Luck All
Report Whisperingdeath November 2, 2024 3:26 PM GMT
Red card for Boro and I am holed below the waterline already!
Report The Dragon November 2, 2024 3:48 PM GMT
lost on arsenal, city losing sunderland drawing as are everton - so poor so far

lpool losing also ffs
Report Analyst November 2, 2024 6:34 PM GMT
Poor from me - only 1 from 5.
Report Whisperingdeath November 3, 2024 6:51 AM GMT
It was a massacre….I don’t want to talk about it!
Report onthehoy November 3, 2024 12:41 PM GMT
only a couple of bets for me today

I’ll go for Spurs  @  2.02 to take a home win

and I’ll try a Double on a couple of short priced teams in Norway
Fredrikstad / Rosenborg @ 2.22

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon November 3, 2024 1:13 PM GMT
shocking from me yesterday- none of my selections won apart from forest hey ho a day full of surprises no bets today
Report Whisperingdeath November 3, 2024 2:53 PM GMT
I laid Spuds, small bet. I really fancied Villa tbh but can’t trust my judgement on football right now.
Report The Dragon November 3, 2024 3:26 PM GMT
yeah went the same WD double on villa and chelsea - small bets
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 1:50 PM GMT
well the less said about that weekend the better -a home duoble of pool and forest and a singlre on forest was the only light on a dark tunnel.

slim piccking tonight also with a few championship and div 1 games however a few bets caught my eye.

WATFORD at 16/5 look too big at Swanesa. Swansea have won 1 in 7 with only 2 wins at home out of 6 all season. they have lost all games v the top 8 teams and watford are currently 5th and staight on after a 6 goal thumping of sheff wed.

Watforld look as though they have left their poor run behind them with good recent wins at s.wed and boro and blackbur. the price looks too big inmho and worth a pop . You may wish to lay swansea at odds on. Ive done both.

the other match of interest is Stockport v wycombe. Wycombe have won 5 in 6 and are top of the form league and in great form . Stockport after a great start have struggled recently but thumped in form reading 4-1 at the weekend. Wycombes wins have also been against teams in lowly positions and may flatter. However Stockport are favs at 6/4 with Wycombe at 11/5 another draw for stockport maybe the shout ?

Be interested on any views on these matches?
Report onthehoy November 5, 2024 1:56 PM GMT
1 of 2 bets on Sunday came in (Spurs at 2.02) to give me returns from 4 out of 8 bets over the weekend, but still a small level stakes loss.

I was having a second look at 4 away teams, Hull, Boro, Norwich & Sheff Utd

but have decided to hang on to (most of) my cash and just go for the 1 bet tonight

Sheff Wed v Norwich, Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 2:00 PM GMT
gl oth -see youve withdrawn from the horse tipping comp. i withdrew sometime ago - too much every day and the prem totally knackered by too many pickers going for very short priced favs.

if it was me id go for three selections pr week and only 1 selection could be odds on. wd make for a much better comp if they did that.

wont happen of course
Report onthehoy November 5, 2024 2:31 PM GMT
I was going to stop doing the nap comp. a while back, I ended up doing it more out of habit !!

Think I'll just stick with your correct score comp on here now
although it sometimes takes a while to get logged in to the forum (keeps asking me to log in to post when I am already logged in)
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 2:35 PM GMT
i had similiar problems sometime ago but reset my password and touch wood has been ok since
Report Foinavon November 5, 2024 4:29 PM GMT
Both div 1 games look drawish to me The Dragon. I agree with your assessment of Wycombe and their defence can be leaky away from home, even Burton managed to score twice. My hunch is 2-2 and I've gone for 1-1 Burton v Crawley. Just my atrocious guessing game.
Report Analyst November 5, 2024 6:38 PM GMT
Re Sheff Wed overs @ 2.08 - some value I agree - Norwich are an overs side - anything above 2.00 is usually value for them.

Watford @ 4.20 some value - but there are a very mid table side to me i.e. they are in a bit of false good position at present. I saw Boro lose 2-1 there and I thought Watford were lucky to win.

I am surprised Boro are 1.97 at QPR - QPR are unbeaten in three games - Laying Boro must have some value - Hayden Hackney is suspended, Van Den Berg is a new injury. Doak is a doubt. Both were badly missed on Saturday in a 3-0 defeat by Coventry.
Report TameTheTiger November 5, 2024 7:14 PM GMT
Celtic @ 2.72 looks good value
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 7:22 PM GMT
boro are 1.89 tonight- tough call i reckon but will watch with interest -they do look a tad short for sure with a draw looking tempting
Report TameTheTiger November 5, 2024 7:52 PM GMT
strong liverpool line up, ive taken the 4/5
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 7:58 PM GMT
theyll want to win this one to put one over on the turn down
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 8:02 PM GMT
gosh stockport 0-2 down already
Report Whisperingdeath November 5, 2024 8:04 PM GMT
I have been following Wycombe. Didn’t want to say anything but tempered it with Wycombe and draw bet

Rolled the dice on Watford and draw too

Madrid

Dortmund
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 8:04 PM GMT
0-3 20 mins wow game over that one
Report The Dragon November 5, 2024 8:06 PM GMT
very ambiytious club stockport -early doors but the manager maybe under somepressure. bolton and wrexham next home games
Report Foinavon November 5, 2024 8:36 PM GMT
Nightmare for Stockport they haven't got out of bed yet.
Report Whisperingdeath November 5, 2024 8:39 PM GMT
Swansea

1 win in 7!
Report TameTheTiger November 5, 2024 10:11 PM GMT
celtic and liverpool landed Cool
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2024 7:12 PM GMT
Sunderland
Blackburn
Leeds
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2024 8:02 PM GMT
Started well with Besiktas, Shaktar then had the Mings horror show. Not ideal

Concentrating in the Championship tonight with a bit of low rent odds from Munchen and Barca
Report The Dragon November 6, 2024 8:03 PM GMT
had a small dip on cardiff and millwall
Report The Dragon November 6, 2024 8:31 PM GMT
millwall 1 up Cool
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