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The Dragon
15 Sep 14 19:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 37,602 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Hi guys

This thread will start this weekend.

4th year of stats and analysis now . so should be good!!!
Will post Top rated and Value tips with analysis for the selections 8-) . Lets hope it goes well
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Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 8:12 PM BST
boro winning
Report gibmark September 15, 2021 8:15 PM BST
green up
Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 8:16 PM BST
tooo early gib  let em ride i say
Report flukes September 15, 2021 8:19 PM BST
The Dragon 14 Sep 21 15:59 Joined: 12 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 37,499 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
i also agrre with your logic on HUDDERSFIELD analyst and i looked at Huddersfield as a viable betting prpostion.

I decided aginst it simply on Blackpools win v Fulham which was an invcredible result and will have given them so much confidence it had to enter into the equation



The Dragon 15 Sep 21 07:01 Joined: 12 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 37,499 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
small loss for me QPR and Hpool both lost Acca let down by southend all others won.

Hudders bailed me out as i followed analyst in on it so not too bad a loss

LaughLaugh
Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 8:25 PM BST
stolke 1-1
Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 8:31 PM BST
0-2 fulham
Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 9:39 PM BST
Treble in.. Haters will love thatLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report gibmark September 15, 2021 10:01 PM BST
nice bet Dragon WD
Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 10:08 PM BST
thanks gib . sad to see some of the haters back on the thread Cry
Report gibmark September 15, 2021 10:09 PM BST
dont rise to it , let your betting do the talking
Report bigmo September 15, 2021 10:12 PM BST
I don't post much nowadays but this is the only thread I mostly check. Keep up the good work dragon.
Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 10:16 PM BST
Thanks for the encouragment guys its a great thread coz loads of people put their knowledge into it
Report gibmark September 15, 2021 10:24 PM BST
bit of pressure can be a good thing , just make sure you pick winners LaughLaughLaugh
Report The Dragon September 15, 2021 10:29 PM BST
thats all we try to do using a bit of knowlege and studying thay gives us the edge over the bookes
Report gibmark September 15, 2021 10:41 PM BST
in that case Flamengo at 1.30 am in Brazilian cup
Report Analyst September 15, 2021 10:44 PM BST
My 2 bets came into tonight with 38pts profit after commission - normally it would be 50pts but as said I betted a bit smaller than usual.
Report flukes September 15, 2021 10:47 PM BST
Only 1 aftertiming hater on this thread:-

The Dragon 28 Aug 21 17:09 Joined: 12 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 37,513 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
the mans a manure **** end of


The Dragon 14 Sep 21 15:59 Joined: 12 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 37,499 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
i also agrre with your logic on HUDDERSFIELD analyst and i looked at Huddersfield as a viable betting prpostion.

I decided aginst it simply on Blackpools win v Fulham which was an invcredible result and will have given them so much confidence it had to enter into the equation



The Dragon 15 Sep 21 07:01 Joined: 12 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 37,499 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
small loss for me QPR and Hpool both lost Acca let down by southend all others won.

Hudders bailed me out as i followed analyst in on it so not too bad a loss
Report FOYLESWAR September 16, 2021 8:22 AM BST
well done dragon,anylyst ,winners.
Report morpteh mackem September 16, 2021 8:58 AM BST
here's me weekend  musings as away in bonnie scotland for  a fortneet

treble- qpr ( home to bristol city ) exeter ( as mentioned, home to sutton ) and inverness, going great guns ( won every game ) away to dunfermline ( top vs bottom and inverness 6/4 !!! )
Report The Dragon September 16, 2021 10:53 AM BST
thanks MM have a great break
Report Whisperingdeath September 16, 2021 1:26 PM BST
Not many who talk the talk, walk the walk Dragon.

We put our picks up for all to see. Funny though I don’t see the trolls putting their picks up.

Fight the good fight and ignore losers and oxygen thief’s.
Report The Dragon September 16, 2021 1:32 PM BST
Coolcheers WD spot on M8
Report The Dragon September 16, 2021 2:28 PM BST
Morning Guys,

My selections for the weekend are

HUDDERSFIELD to beat Forest at 23/20.I Thought they wd be odds on given forest are rock botton with 1 point from 7 games. Hudders are going well with only 2 losses to top team Fulham and Stoke.

Record against other lower placed teams is good with 4 wins and a draw. Top rated team this week and have doubled them with FULHAM at 4/11 who should beat Reading (top v 18th.)

Away day patent is also on in the form of Orient 13/8, Hartlepool 6/4 and Forest Green 29/20 who all have decent chances against teams in much worse form.

Good luck whatever you go for.
Report gibmark September 16, 2021 3:19 PM BST
Hard to call how Forest will react to new manager ..maybe one just to watch
Report The Dragon September 16, 2021 3:51 PM BST
thanks gib didnt realise Houghton had gone whose the new manager

Dont like backing against teams that have a new manager in theit first matchSadthey tend to perform better
Report The Dragon September 16, 2021 4:05 PM BST
steve reid is interim head coach
Report sizezero September 16, 2021 9:48 PM BST
That really is a head scratcher MM regarding ICT price this weekend, I would expect the price to be about evens by KO time, they have definitely made a rick of it! Also like the look of BOURNEMOUTH 31/20 away to Cardiff, they are flying at the moment
Report super7hans September 16, 2021 10:07 PM BST
Hi Dragon
Report super7hans September 16, 2021 10:11 PM BST
For me Dagenham 3-1 , Hill 6-4 and Orient 9-5....Trixie.....Also  Dagenham 20/23 double chance (way too big imo) Double with QPR 10/11......QPR Hull double.Imo QPR way too big at 10/11 GL all
Report SirNorbertClarke September 17, 2021 10:31 AM BST
Lay Manchester United @1.86
Report chewy11 September 17, 2021 10:53 AM BST
Preston 3/1 v WBA
Report The Dragon September 17, 2021 1:46 PM BST
good luck guys ...weekend nearly on us!!!!
Report sizezero September 17, 2021 5:43 PM BST
INVERNESS into money on now!
Report The Dragon September 17, 2021 5:51 PM BST
yup im on it also Sizezero  following MM putting it up.. cmon
Report The Dragon September 17, 2021 6:39 PM BST
shoved a fiver om leeds tonight
Report gibmark September 17, 2021 6:42 PM BST
think Lees arent as good as last season , so much pressure on Newcastle , who i thought played well against Man U & west ham , i think they will do it tonight , big price too
Report everyone's a winner September 17, 2021 6:46 PM BST
i think leeds a bit short at 2.4 ish, though hard to tell really, at this stage but i went with instinct and laid them
Report The Dragon September 17, 2021 6:49 PM BST
think leeds have had a tough start this could be a chance for them to pick up 3 points
Report everyone's a winner September 17, 2021 7:00 PM BST
3.7 is a decent price for eupen in belgium tonight, or lay cercle brugge at 2.18, given respective starts to the season, though i know this thread is really for uk stuff.
Report everyone's a winner September 17, 2021 9:38 PM BST
a nice start to the weekend, eupen won 2-1
Report The Dragon September 17, 2021 9:40 PM BST
great call and nice price too vwdCool
Report kingscrewed September 17, 2021 9:52 PM BST
Watched a bit of the Eupen game deserved to win by more.
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 7:32 AM BST
Hi guys, my bet this weekend is the Man City and Liverpool double. I think most people would agree they should both win and the double pays 1.34. However the half time result double pays a whooping 2.42 this is the value bet.
I have been using this method for many years with very good results. The key is too look for teams that are expected to be very dominant in the game. I find that if such a team plays as expected and wins the game comfortably, then they are almost always leading at half time. Anyway, just I thought I would share this with you. I believe it gives the punter the edge and the value. Clearly the most safe way to use this approach is to place the single bet. However this weekend I'm going for gold as the 2.42 is an outstanding bet in my opinion.

Best of luck all
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 8:03 AM BST
cheers 36DD interesting betting strategy which i have not come across before be interesting to see how it pans out

good luck

wd imagine that Place will be parking the busSad
Report SirNorbertClarke September 18, 2021 9:34 AM BST
Everton @ 3.25 look great value against Villa
Report onthehoy September 18, 2021 9:47 AM BST
2 bets in the early games to start my day off, hoping for better than my mid week bets when both bets lost!

Wolves @ 1.91

Hull, Asian Handicap +0.25 goals @ 2.07
More of a long shot, Sheffield scored 8 in last 2 games but are goalless in 3 away games (only 4 shots on target), Hull are on 6 games without a goal but kept clean sheet in 2 of last 3 games, possibly 0-0 today? Or maybe Hull sneak a 1-0 win?
Report Whisperingdeath September 18, 2021 9:49 AM BST
everyone’s a winner

Keep us informed on Eupen please.

36DD

Interesting strategy. I am always looking fir new ways to lose moneyLaugh Sorry! I am going to monitor that. Makes sense specially with the dominance of the top 4 thus season.
Report Whisperingdeath September 18, 2021 9:51 AM BST
Add Bayern Munchen into that strategy and maybe a couple of other teams from farmers leagues around Europe though specifically not PSG!
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 9:57 AM BST
yes i will be watching that one too WD

Nobby is right about everton. I fancy them at Villa too
Report Whisperingdeath September 18, 2021 10:01 AM BST
Even when they were getting the sheite kicked out of them by Burnley in the first half they looked like a team who could play some Kwality football. Fast slick passing and Direct. If Calvert-Lewis is back they may indeed be a bet today.
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 10:46 AM BST
Yes it's all about top sides, in top leagues playing much lesser sides. Home advantage also helps of course. Laying the half time draw on betfair works quite well also. Today off the top of my head Liverpool are 1.20 to win the game but in my view the 1.61 on offer to be leading at half time is the bet...let's see
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 10:52 AM BST
I remember backing Barcelona for half time result @ 1.50 . They led 2-0 at h/t and drew 2-2 an acca buster and a dreadful full time result. My guess is I one of very few that actually won on that game. Of course bet365 would of paid out but not many others.
Report gibmark September 18, 2021 11:22 AM BST
i use to do ht/ft markets , thing is nobody needs to win by half time !..and i have come to the conclusion that i should never bet on a team that doesnt need to win ,ike 4-0 up on 1st leg of cup comp in 2 nd leg , i think you find better value going against the market in one sided games , like draw @ h/t then win r/t , as someone has mentioned , weaker side often park the bus 1st haf before they get broken down , anyway GL with yourbets
Report gibmark September 18, 2021 11:24 AM BST
draw liverpool , win 2 nd half is 4.7
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 11:58 AM BST
this is going to be fascinating to see how it pans out,, good points made by gib
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 12:06 PM BST
Its the cricket 20 finals today and i fancy sussex to win it backed them some time ago they look the strongest team and have allround capabilities

You can get sussex to win still at 3.55.Playing kent in semi later in the day
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 12:12 PM BST
Just  added wolves draw and 2.50 N Al Aasy to my half time selections for a 13.60 acca
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 12:16 PM BST
Yes gib does make some points but it's not about needing to win by half time, it's the class of the team, the home crowd and of course like all gambling making the right decisions. As with everything the proof is in the pudding, let's see
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 12:17 PM BST
Good luck with your cricket bet Dragon
Report onthehoy September 18, 2021 12:20 PM BST
36DD
From what I can see after a quick look over the Premier League games this season

9 games where fav. was 1.50 or shorter (bookies odds) (odds between 1.1-1.44)
In 8 of the games, the fav. was winning at half time, @ odds between 1.57 – 2.05
favourites won all 9 in 90 minutes
the one fav. not winning at half time was Arsenal  (FT odds-1.36 HT odds-1.9) at home to Norwich (HT 0-0, FT 1-0)

it was just a quick look, so hopefully I didn’t miss any!
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 12:23 PM BST
thanks 36ddCool
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 12:27 PM BST
Onthehoy...yes exactly and 4 out of 5 midweek champs league went in as well of the top of my head. Strike rate is the most important element of gambling and the confidence that within a few bets you will strike. Lots of accounts is the key unless you choose to play the exchanges of course. Midweek I only backed one side and landed a 1.47 return
Report everyone's a winner September 18, 2021 12:54 PM BST
RE the ht prices, they are those prices for a reason. I used to do a lot of it but you won't beat the odds long term. i then went through a phase of draw ht, favourite ft (after becoming convinced the price for the favourite to be winning at ht was too short) but that won't work blindly either. if it's working for you recently, it's because of some additional (possibly subliminal) selection criteria, e.g some teams really go for it 1st half. but the bookies catch up quickly with that.
Report everyone's a winner September 18, 2021 12:57 PM BST
last season there were some unusual results with no crowds and it could be that the home advantage is having more impact but prices haven't quite caught up
Report gibmark September 18, 2021 12:59 PM BST

Sep 18, 2021 -- 5:24AM, gibmark wrote:


draw liverpool , win 2 nd half is 4.7


draw man city also 4.7

Report 36DD September 18, 2021 1:28 PM BST
Everyone's a winner..you have clearly put the time in and I agree with you 100 percent. Yes in general the bookies are in front of the game as they are with almost every bet you place. However, in many ways you are agreeing with me. As I said it's all about staking and strike rate. I'm not going to spell it out to anyone and don't really care what people think. But I haven't worked now for over 20 years and I'm not the brightest man every born. What I will say is look at recent form rather than stats. Like a boxer a football team is only as good as his last fight. Next week I am going to discuss the draw bet and the best approach, that will be interesting I'm sure lol
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 1:31 PM BST
Sorry what I mean by that is the poorer side I hope that clears it up
Report onthehoy September 18, 2021 2:12 PM BST
2 losing bets in the early games
So, will try my luck with some of the 3pm games:
Norwich @ 2.32

3 games I reckon we should see goals:
3 X Doubles & Treble, Over 2.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals Treble @ 2.08
Barnsley v Blackburn (O2.5 @ 2.2)
Wimbledon v Plymouth (O2.5 @ 1.87)
Cheltenham v Oxford Utd (O2.5 @ 1.9)

and for the TV game
Liverpool on the Asian Handicap -1.5 goals @ 1.84

Good Luck all
Report 36DD September 18, 2021 2:48 PM BST
Best of luck o t h
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 3:07 PM BST
forest green winning
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 3:19 PM BST
orient winning
Report Des Pond September 18, 2021 3:20 PM BST
The Half Time thing can be quite profitable, but there are pitfalls such as red cards, flukey goals against run of play or games just not getting going. For instance last week, I think all prem games were 0-0 at Half Time.
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 3:24 PM BST
fulham and hudders both losingCry
Report Des Pond September 18, 2021 3:25 PM BST
correction: there were a couple of goals late in the half, but most Sat games were 0-0 until very close to HT, iirc.
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 3:34 PM BST
orient 2 up
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 3:41 PM BST
orient 3 up
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 3:41 PM BST
cmon hartleppol!!!!
Report everyone's a winner September 18, 2021 3:49 PM BST
city 0-0 at ht, so the double or level stakes no good
Report Des Pond September 18, 2021 3:53 PM BST
I wouldn't want to criticise the strategy because it can work, but Palace hit the bar twice early on which could've killed the bet straight away. In any case, it seems to me that more goals are scored in the second half in most games (at a rough estimate)
Report everyone's a winner September 18, 2021 3:57 PM BST
that was what led me to draw at ht fav ft bets but the odds are not wrong (on the whole), so you can't make a profit on these, either way, unless you cherry pick, which requires some other selection strategy
Report gibmark September 18, 2021 4:00 PM BST
pool only scored in 43 min , fine margins
Report everyone's a winner September 18, 2021 4:03 PM BST
yes, his double is goosed anyway but even 2 singles might easily have been worse
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 4:10 PM BST
which everway  you look at its a surprise that city are noy up at ht

hudders bet looks doomed 0-2 wouldnt have placed it if id have done more homework arounf the change of manager hey ho

peterboro beating bham 3-0 wow
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 4:14 PM BST
forest green in thebag just need hartlepool for the patent cmon!!!!!
Report Des Pond September 18, 2021 4:20 PM BST
A quick look at some stats (can't verify or otherwise the accuracy of the site) but Man City have scored 55% of their league goals in the second half, and Liverpool 56%, with Man Utd the figure is 82%, and with Arsenal it is 100%. The top team that buck the trend is Chelsea with 33% in the 2nd half. Caveat: stats can be misleading, of course.
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 4:21 PM BST
looks like citeh just dodged a bullet
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 4:32 PM BST
sussex strugglingCry
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 4:32 PM BST
exeter winning
Report The Dragon September 18, 2021 4:32 PM BST
grimsby looking good in nat league
Report SontaranStratagem September 18, 2021 4:35 PM BST
Norwich just casually getting relegated again Laugh

Amazing how they've played the prem money system, you gotta hand it to them Mischief
Report SontaranStratagem September 18, 2021 4:36 PM BST
Hopefully this is the end of Burnley's little purple patch in their history, be good to see the back of them lets be honest, back to league 2 where they belong
Report SontaranStratagem September 18, 2021 4:51 PM BST
Fooking City today Cry

They've been fooking awful as well, its not like they've missed a sh*t ton of chances Crazy
Report pulio September 18, 2021 5:00 PM BST
thats how the bookies make money
Report SontaranStratagem September 18, 2021 5:32 PM BST
Yup

Accums there's always one bas*ard that busts it
Report 36DD September 19, 2021 7:20 AM BST
Good morining all

Man City were very poor yesterday, I would guess any bet placed on them was a losing bet, including mine. However Liverpool did the business. Whether it be a goal in the 4th or 43rd minute, it makes no odds, the bet was landed.
Here's an interesting fact. Last time West Ham played Utd at home they lost 1-3 however they were leading at half time 1-0
So, let's see if they can do it again!

West Ham to be leading at half time at a massive price of 7/2 that's my bet today

Going to need a good splash of luck with this one as I expect Man Utd to be the dominant side
Report everyone's a winner September 19, 2021 7:59 AM BST
the value is firmly with west ham in my book too, i've laid man u on here and backed west ham elsewhere. cue a comfortable ht/ft win for man u Laugh
Report 36DD September 19, 2021 8:17 AM BST
Best of luck to us both then everyone's a winner
Report SirNorbertClarke September 19, 2021 9:53 AM BST
I've laid United as I will be doing every time they are odds-on against any side capable of an upset until OGS is gone.

I just don't see the Ronaldo thing working out. I think good managers will easily nullify his threat.
Report SirNorbertClarke September 19, 2021 12:16 PM BST
Why are Leicester not favourites to beat Brighton?
Report Des Pond September 19, 2021 2:05 PM BST
Brighton are a decent side, at home. And they are above Leicester in the table. Leicester have many skillful players, but they are not always reliable. The odds could be more in Leicester's favour, but I wouldn't necessarliy have them favourites in this one away from home. I would go for 1-1, if pushed, for a scoreline.
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