Dragons Football tips 2014/2015

Only 1 goal scored in my Thursday night’s over 2.5 goals bet


2 away wins and a home win from the 12:30 games today

2 singles: Burnley @  2.76
           Bolton  @  1.90

and I’ll add Chelsea for a Treble @ 6.95

Good Luck All

gl OTH

mkd game is off

A late goal from Bolton gave me a full house in my 12:30 games

now for my 3pm selections


Only 1 home win single   Everton @ 2.46
and 1 Double  Arsenal/Villa  @ 2.32

Asian Handicap  Brighton +0.25 @ 1.82     Wolverhampton +0.75 @ 2.35     Crawley +0.50  @ 1.78


Over 2.5 goals  Swindon v Morecambe @  1.95


Good Luck All

nice one OTH

I'm trying my luck backing unders again on Swansea Leeds. The price is currently 1.86.

Oh dear, wasn't expecting that. An amazing game nevertheless.

Man

Citeh lose, Birmingham lose, Liverpool losing to Ipswich, Leeds doing THAT

They saved my weekend!

I do need manure to win to turn a profit for the weekend though

football betting and making a profit is very difficult at the moment and in recent yars

Shocking weekend until Liverpool and Leeds comebacks.

One winner and one loser as posted on here for a small loss. Did alright on the Perth test, how about you? So far I have had 26 bets/trades on the West Indies test and as things stand could cash out for 16p

Didn’t bet on India. Went on run lines and came a cropper. The pitch imho was pretty decent.

We've seen that before at Perth, the initial life goes out of the pitch after 2 days under the influence of the sun and the Fremantle doctor. I'm very wary about what's happening in Antigua, any result is possible.

Might avoid that and go for Hail Mary Sri Lanka if the price is right. Neither side get well paid. Should be Windies, could be a draw most unlikely Sri Lanka….. what does that indicate?….. stay out or a cheeky nicker on SL but I would want well in excess of 50

A canny day for me on Saturday with 7 winners from 9 selections, why can’t I do this every weekend.

Only football bet for me today is an Asian Handicap bet, Newcastle -1.5 goals  @ - 2.34

Good Luck All

Quite a few games knocking about and Ive gone for 3 W's

WYCOMBE 21/20, Wrexham 7/10 and Walsall 2/3- 3 singles and a patent


In the Championship its hard to see beyond:

Sheff Utd 10/21, Leeds10/21 and Boro 11/20 all pretty short so done a treble on it.

GL All

leeds and boro are tommorrow night

Haven’t spent much time on tonight’s games so will limit my bets to 3 games

Stoke v Preston BTTS @ 1.92

and a couple of speculative bets

Burnley v Coventry  Over 2.5 goals @ 2.4

Hull v Sheff Wed  DRAW @ 3.45

-0.20pts this month on this thread to level stakes (-10.48pts for season)

Good Luck with your bets Dragon

sae to you OTH

same

I've had a play in the Scottish Cup the weekend, Dundee North East to beat Airdrie @ 11/2... couple of books go 7/1 but not somewhere I have an account... Airdrie having an awful season having earned only 5 points and struggling to score... saw on a forum they only have three fit players so how strong a team they put out remains to be seen... Dundee NE won the Midland Junior League last year, second this season only conceding five goals so far... also done a dub with West Ham who certainly put in a shift last night and the Prem throwing up some big price winners of late... finally made it a treb with Notts County in the FA Cup at Peterborough, they'll be a big turnout from Nottingham for this one, cheers...

You had a better night than me last night Dragon, I was back to normal with 3 losing bets


A couple of bets for tonight
Derby @ 2.66
Barnet @ 1.91

Really good fun reading all  you guys tips ,guesses,gut feeling calculated bets also no aftertiming Wishing all bests please keep posting and most important be lucky I'm playing tonight Double Juventus and Boro Hope to see you at the winning window

cheers stocks..everyone trys their best on here.. glad you enjoythe thread and as always contributions gratefully received .needs leeds and boro tonight for my treble

thanks colu yes good night for me  walsall let me down from it being a top night

gl with your bets tonight

oth

Not many league fixtures this weekend due to FA CUP .

Two teams have come up on my form based system BORO at home to Hull at 8/15 and Millwall away to Oxford at 6/5.
MILWALL
- Oxford United were outclassed by promotion-chasing Sheffield United on Tuesday night as two early goals set the newly promoted side on course for a 3-0 away defeat.
- Des Buckingham is navigating a tough run of form - the hosts have won just one of their last 12 in the league, and have lost five of their last six.
- A floodlight failure saw Millwall's game against Portsmouth postponed on Wednesday night, meaning the Lions have enjoyed plenty of rest in preparation for this gameweek 18 clash.
- Neil Harris' side are on an eight-game unbeaten streak with four wins in their last six.

HULL

- Middlesbrough couldn't find a way past a stout Blackburn defence in midweek as a late Dom Hyam goal ultimately condemned Michael Carrick's side to a surprise home defeat.The hosts have still won three of their last four league games and will expect an immediate response on Saturday afternoon.

- Hull conceded late in each half on Tuesday night as they suffered a damaging 2-0 home defeat against Sheffield Wednesday.

- The Tigers are now in the relegation zone after four consecutive league defeats, and will now have a new manager after Tim Walter was sacked in the wake of their latest midweek defeat.


GL ALL

I will also back Brighton 2/5 to beat Soton tonight and put any winnings on BRENTFORD 2/3 and FOREST 8/11 tomorrow.

Adding Crewe and Watford to Boro and Millwall

Crewe look a decent proce at 8/5 to win at Carlilse WD though Carlilse have hit a bit of form lately. Watford were on my radar also

GL

sorry above header should read BORO not hull- apols

Apologies Foinavon

I went on a Hail Mary play

The Draw at Christchurch

It went against me up to 27 and then this morning to 50

I am in at 11

It is back to 11

As you know Foinavon, Hagley Oval is green first day. Wickets can fall. Then it gets easier to bat on then the pitch gets better and better.

Points to consider

It did not seam around day 1. NZ contributed to getting themselves out.

It did seam around this morning under cloud but NZ dropped six catches including Brook 4 times.

England lost 4 wickets under cloud and only one when the sun was out including Pope who scored runs!

Light cloud tomorrow when England bat. If they bat to tea or God willing beyond NZ will bat on Sunday when the sun is FULLY out and the pitch is flat

Final point

Only One Test Match has ended in a draw this year

IMHO if you can afford to lose the money this is a Hail Mary worthy of consideration. Current price 10-1. You should be able to lay off Sunday

Yes Dargon

I am looking for a home bet to replace Crewe as well and msybe also back Carlisle and the draw in a smaller 4 four fold cover

Agree entirely WD, I did the same and backed the draw prematch at 13.5 hoping to lay off during day1. When it went against me I backed Eng as they were the much bigger price in an even contest. I watched the first session last night and saw the seaming the NZ bowlers were getting so bailed out leaving an overall loss, expecting to wake up this morning seeing NZ batting with a 200 lead! I was surprised to see Eng in the box seat, the track has flattened out bringing the draw into contention. I noticed it was around 10 but haven't yet made a move. I will take your advice, it's the logic of the situation. Thanks and good luck today with your football bets.

Yeah!

I wanted to double down at 27 but thought I would wait for a wicket first but fell asleep!

England ought to be able to bat to tea. The real fear is they get on it and post 550+ in which case NZ may have to bat more than 4 session minimum.

I think 10-1 is a terrific price but the stats are clear generally only one draw in Test Matches this year and I think only one at the Hagley Oval for some time. It has a great pitch though and NZ batters need to atone for mistakes on the first innings knowing  a second poor showing gives the kid Will Young a chance of a fair go

Looking for a home alternative to Crewe please guys

Red Bull Leipzig?

Augsburg?

Hoy, got anything?

Also will consider an alternative home bet for Millwall

I like the look of Swansea, WD, they are playing well at the moment but it's reflected in the price.

Yes they are

I forgot I should be looking at early kick offs

Fleetwood came to mind but they are hit and miss even at home and Colchester although lowly have a little run put together

Colchester and draw at 1.83 is a good price to cover Fleetwood in a 4 fold

my highest rated homes this weekend are

Brighton, Forest, Brentford and Boro (be careful of sacked manager syndrome)

Only 1 bet for me tonight

Sheffield Utd to nick the win @ 2.12

Good Luck All

yup i agree doubled up with Brighton

wouldnt put anyone off Sheff u tonight.

one in scottish cup tomorrow- Clydebank

Quite happy to lay Boro @ 1.53

On Wednesday night they had 7 out of the my first 11 choice players missing (keeper, three defenders, three midfielders), other players were rumoured to be playing with some sickness, and it showed. Blackburn looked sharper and fitter, although a draw would have been the fairest result. I would have laid Boro when I saw the team news but internet signal at the Stadium is very poor close to kick off.
The game against Hull may be not quite as tough (Blackburn had rested last weekend), but if the same players are missing for Boro I would price up the game against Hull as 54% Boro, 26% draw 20% Hull. Boro have only won 4 home games from 9 this season.

BetFred BTTS Bonus Shop Coupon - Treble

Brighton (apologies for after event bet)
Palace
Norwich

Sections bet BTTS - 22/1 fivefold

Sutton
Norwich
Watford
Carlisle
Swansea

GL all.

Brighton bad start -lets hope today is better- had a saver on Sheffield so not too much damage done.

With my level stake betting on this thread showing -1.61pts for the month and -12.49pts for the season, I’m hoping I can at least end the month in profit with a decent return form the following 7 bets:

3 odds against selections
Newcastle @ 2.3      Wolves @ 2.86      West Brom @ 2.44

Middlesbrough / Swansea    Double @   2.75

Asian Handicap   Ipswich +0.75 @ 1.92

Over 2.5 goals    Coventry v Cardiff  @  1.91

BTTS   Brentford v Leicester   @ 1.69

Analyst, I considered the info you posted re: Middlesbrough, but my initial thought on this game were based mostly on Hull’s poor last 9 match form, W0 D3 L6, in which they failed to score in 5 of the 9 games.
Boro on the drift, now 1.65 on Exchange & 1.57 on Sportsbook, Hopefully Boro can put out a stronger team than last week!! 

Good Luck All

This run has to change soon!

Brighton were lucky to come away with a point, Kiwi batsmen spoiling our Hail Mary

I'm sticking with Swansea today and splitting my stake between a home win and btts:No as I hope they will keep another clean sheet.

Very disappointing Foinavon….from a betting pov but looking forward to The Ashes!

Hazlewood has broken down. India showing the way on how to deal with probably the best attack in the game, certainly were. Be nice to have Wood and Archer alternate between tests. Just need to find a number three to ground and pound. Leave the fireworks to others.

2 MINUTES

Carlisle 1 Crewe 0

How’s your luck!

I got a cover on Carlisle and the draw but hope Crewe through

Carlise  is a league 2 game, not cup

Nowt worse than getting on at the bottom end of the market as I’ve done with Dundee NE when I saw 356 had clipped their price to 9/2 thought I’d hope on at 11/2, now generally two points bigger will go in again… Yankee this afternoon, Ipswich, Notts C, Cheltenham and Oldham, cheers…

I’ve had an in play bet at HT in the Fleetwood v Colchester game, not a lot in it to be fair in a tepid affair, however Colchester have had two key players injured and gone off so the game plan has gone awry somewhat, Fleetwood @ 2/1, cheers…

The footy didn't turn out as hoped. I've been laying the draw at Sabina Park, there were/are some generous prices on offer given the wet outfield delay.

Boro lay lost - 5 players started who didn't play in midweek and they made a big difference. Shows how hard it is to predict results in advance without knowing specific team news.

The good news is the BetFred BTTS Bonus Treble came up @ 9/2 which made it a profitable weekend.

Grim from me yesterday, however North End kick off in a bit, a win for them will turn things around, anything other will be black Sunday, cheers…

Cole Palmer to be fouled 2 or more times boosted to 2.0 on sportsbook.

Curtis Nelso to score anytime for Derby is to big @ 16.0 hes scored 2 so far this season and is the main target on set pieces for the rams in the air. Derby I believe have scored the most set piece goals in the division and Wednesday have 1 of the worst defences from set plays.

Gl all

2 winning bets and a half stake return (AH) from my 7 bets yesterday

Looking at the 3 Premier League early games, I’ve backed Chelsea @ 1.78

and as I reckon all 3 home teams could be good for the win, I’ll also try a home win treble
Chelsea/Man Utd/Spurs @ 4.76

Good Luck All

Not a good start up on Tayside onwards and upwards, backed the draw @ 12.2…

my reb is chelsea, arsenal and liverpool

gl all

Early goal enough for Airdrie Bromley look good at odds against v Solihull who have a few injuries but I’ll sit this one out, roll on the darts…

Early goal enough for Airdrie Bromley look good at odds against v Solihull who have a few injuries but I’ll sit this one out, roll on the darts…

A lot of midweek fixtures this week and I like the look of WYCOMBE at 11/10 to beat an out of form Exeter who are currently bottom of form league table with Wycombe at the top. Wycombe are on an mamazing winning run and i hope they can continue it against Exeter who have won 1 in 6 losing 4 of those games. (They are playing Wednesday).

IM trying an interesting Prem away treble on Chelsea 1/3, Brentford 10/3 and Forest 17/2.

The Birmingham v Stockport should be an interesting one and im hoping at the prices Stockport (won 4 in 5) can pull off a win. I backed Stockport at 5.9 which i think is too big given the form of the two teams as it might be a lot closer than the betting suggests. Birmingham are 1.69 for the lay  (won 1 in 4 ).

GL all

Dragon, I am with you on Wycombe tonight, Exeter have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games and Wycombe have won their last 8 games with an aggregate score of 20-5 and won 12 of their 16 games this season

5 bets for me tonight:

Wycombe @ 2.06   and   Huddersfield @ 1.82

AH: Ipswich +0.25 @  1.91 and   Northampton +0.50   @ 2.0 

BTTS: Leicester v West Ham @ 1.65

Good Luck All

yes OTH lets hope we can both be counting our increased coinage

GL with your other bets . Huddersfield should oblige also but i have been stung by Wigan a few times this season

had a nibble on MKDons who look a nice price at home  to chesterfield. 5/4 at home for a team that has won 5 on the bounce looks good to me

mkd  up 2mins good start

fs wycombe lozoing

A couple of today’s European games to kick off my weekend betting

Lille @ 1.73
Elversberg @  2.54


Good Luck All

We've got 13 injured players and we've lost our much loved manager for the Posh game on Monday. Sky Sports viewers should see a few goals..in our net anyway. Posh @rseholes a good bet at evens

away in London this weekend with Slippy to watcg Palace v City - Cheers SB -Top Man

Noyt much time to look at fixtures but here are my ratings and teams ive backed.

HOMES; STOCKPORT 1/2 and CREWE 6/5

AWAYS : HUDDERSFIELD 11/10 and MK DONS 29/20.

also done overs in wycombe v reading game

gl all

Not had proper look yet but see sportsbook are going 26.0 on Sonny Bradley to score anytime for Derby at Leeds. I know repeat of last week's pick but as I said Derby are a set pieces side and Bradley is the main target and has 2 goals so far this season. I don't expect us to get anything but can see us pinching a goal, I would expect 2-1 or 3-1 Leeds.

Gl everyone

Not had proper look yet but see sportsbook are going 26.0 on Sonny Bradley to score anytime for Derby at Leeds. I know repeat of last week's pick but as I said Derby are a set pieces side and Bradley is the main target and has 2 goals so far this season. I don't expect us to get anything but can see us pinching a goal, I would expect 2-1 or 3-1 Leeds.

Gl everyone

cheers kings - used my £3 fee bet on it

Both last nights selections came in, hoping for more today

I’ve got 4 selections from the early games

2 German games and 2 Championship games

So, I’ll go for a home win double
Hannover / Leeds @ 1.95

and 2 singles

BTTS Sheff Wed v Preston @ 2.10 

OVER 2.5 goals  Kaiserslautern v Karlsruher @ 1.62

Good Luck All

Bradley on the bench for Derby, think it's the first time he's not started for us in the league since he signed (over 60 games) have had couple of quid on Curtis Nelson anytime @30

The Dragons curse Kings

Only 2 bets on so far today

I was going to cover the draw/home win on the AH in both of these games, but decided in the end to just back the draw in each game.

Ipswich v Bournemouth   Draw @  4.0
Leicester v Brighton   Draw @  4.4

Good Luck All

backed Chelsea and Gooners in an interst fdouble an added bmouth for an away day treble

Interest only

Hull are playing Watford on Wednesday night and i am at a loss to see why Hull are 2.38 favs for the match

Hull are in terrible form losing 6 on the bounce and have only 3 points from the last 11 games.

Watford in contrast are doing ok with only 1 defeat in 7 and 4 wins and 2 draws. their away form is not fantastic but id expect them to beat bottom of the table Hull.

Watford are currently 3.30 and im tempted to have a bet on that given thr above data.

Any views -is this one of those games were the price appears to good to be true?

I have a couple of quid on Boro to win 3-2 @ Leeds - most people will think its a daft fans bet.

But betting to me is a complete game of chance in a world of randomness, so many bets can be still good bets even when there is a slim chance of success. I got 55.0 on the Betfair Exchange. To me its at least a 2% chance, Boro scored 2 at Elland Road last December, three at the Riverside in April against Leeds and three at Elland Road in the League Cup in August. Boro conceed goals too. Leeds and Boro are the top rated sides for goal scoring on xG Championship tables this season and top 2 on xG differences so far this season. The advantages with exchanges is that you can trade your bet too. Leeds of course should win they have won 6 games on the trot and dominated Derby on Saturday, but betting about percentages and chances.

Dragon - look at the Championship xG table - to me its saying Hull are in a false position at the bottom of the table. I have seen both of the these teams live this season. I didn't think Watford were top 6 more mid table and Hull were not bottom 3 for me. Hull lack a cutting edge, but OK otherwise, their fans joked at the Riverside we've scored a goal. I think the odds reflect xG positions opposed to real table. Be careful.

On the Hoy - good profit on the draw bets, backers don't like draws but 4.4 is good value - many games have at least a 25% chance of a draw which is 4.0. The only time this is not true is when one team is a big favourite say 1.65 or less

Ref Hull, my team rovers were a bit fortunate having won by the solitary OG away last sat. The stats looked very favourable for them and my thinking is Hull are playing a lot  better than their position suggests.

Ref hammers and wolves I think 4s is really good value for draw and also wolves . Hoping wolves score first and then trade. Gl. May have a go at the even money rollercoaster soon

Posh.. they are a bit rubbish away.. Northampton the value I think, but gl

good luck if u think we're value, whole club has imploded this week and 13 of the first team squad injured anyway

0-2 @14.5 and 0-3@25

Strength under adversity cobs.

Strength ,

Apologies can't do emojis for some reason

Thanks analyst for your insight re Hull what xG tables?

Thanks also 2 quid ew -food for thought

After a good return from my bets at weekend, I am hoping more winners are in the pipeline for me in the midweek games (or will it be business as usual with a run of losing bets now).

I reckon Burnley at 1.73 are looking good for the home win tonight

and if Blackburn don’t nick a win then the draw looks a real possibility,
so I’ll be on them on the Asian Handicap, Blackburn +0.25 goals  @  1.93


Analyst, I rarely back draws, but occasionally if there are 2 or 3 games I fancy to draw and the odds aren’t too short, I've recently started backing them all to level stake and then it’s just fingers crossed that at least 1 of them comes in.

Dragon, re xG tables, I’ve just started looking at footystats... Org

Good Luck All

thanks OTH

copied this from the site:

Where Did xG Come From?

xG, or Expected Goals, is a methodology formulated by Alan Ryder, who wanted to measure the quality of a shot at goal, but not in Football. No, xG started when Alan stated:

    Not all shots on goal are created equal.

He was right, and his research has since inspired other sports and data geeks and gurus to focus on their own models for creating xG (Expected Goals). If xG is the measure of quality for the shot taken by a team, then what factors go into it?

    Assist Type
    Distance from Goal
    Type of Attack
    Shot Angle
    Body Part Used to Shoot

You can see why having Kevin de Bruyne or Trent Alexander-Arnold on your side would increase a teams xG. They create better chances for other players to score. The passes are so good that the chance of the forward scoring is higher. Sergio Aguero is a lucky man.

In the past few years, xG has become a key indicator of how dangerous a side can be, or in some cases how little chances they create. It's a very interesting statistic to study and one that really can help when it comes to betting on football. Some teams might have a high xG per game, but a low number of actual or average goals scored. This kind of trend suggests that the side needs to invest in a better forward, as the chances are clearly there.
Football Isn't Played in Spreadsheets

With the recent surge of use of expected goals in punditry and mainstream football, xG has become almost ubiquitous in daily football talk. However it's good to remember that football is not played in spreadsheets or via mathematical models. There is always limitations to expected goals, and we must respect the reality of the performances that occured.
For example, in the 2021/2022 UCL Campaign, the final had Real Madrid accumulate 0.73 xG and Liveprool had 2.9 xG. This is roughly the same value across many models published online (they generally only fluctuate about 0.2~0.3 xG between models). This means that Liverpool was expected to have scored almost 3 goals for the shots that they've taken.

However the fixture ended 1-0 in Madrid's favour.
Why? Because xG is not above player performances in reality. This is a combination of Thibaut Courtois' incredible goalkeeping performances, and Madrid's ability to create quality chances. In fact, Madrid had multiple open goal chances that didn't actually end up in a shot. Casemiro's failed pass across goal to Vinicius, Ceballos' open run towards goal, and Benzema's disallowed offside goal saw Madrid accumulate incredibly dangerous chances but no shots. This means that while Real Madrid was technically very dangerous, none of that was reflected in xG!
Obviously scenarios like this reflects the limitations of expected goals. There are several factors that xG could not take into account in these scenarios :

    1. The quality or the form of the goalkeeper faced
    2. Dangerous situations without a shot taken
    3. Situations surrounding the shots taken (number of defenders blocking or pressuring the shot taker)

And many other factors. In reality, we should not take xG at face value and understand football stats on a more granular level by studying other data as well.

xG tables are not perfect, but they do to me show teams that have been a bit lucky and ones that have been a bit unlucky so far this season

I use footystats website for them.

We all know that there are teams that say over a few months are in a bit of false position. I tend to look at xG differences for a team that is the difference between what they were expected to score and expected to conceed from the games stats. In a table this is averaged over the season to date.

Example of xG difference = xG scored 1.5 per game minus xG conceeded 1.2 per game = 0.3

Currently Hull's xG difference is -0.04 and Watford's is -0.17 (from Footy Stats website) that is saying this season Hull should be a bit higher in the table than Watford based on the games played so far and how many goals they should have scored and should have conceeded.

To answer the original question this might explain why Hull's price is much shorter than Dragon was expecting based on real table positions and real results to date.

tempted by the 5.1 for Boro against Leeds

tad generous for sure des

1-0 Leeds, strange goal, keeper at fault.