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TheGoddess
02 Aug 14 16:34
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Date Joined: 18 Mar 14
| Topic/replies: 1,603 | Blogger: TheGoddess's blog
Ahead of the Racing Post pullout next week, some stats for you to consider:

HANDICAP RESULTS FOR THE LAST 5 SEASONS USING “AVERAGE” HANDICAP

PREMIERSHIP (6 SEASONS STATS)

2008-09 Stoke(P) 52 Fulham 44 Liverpool 9 Man Utd Scr (Final League Positions Were: 12 / 7 / 2 / 1)
2009-10 Birmingham(P) 48 Tottenham 22 Aston Villa 26 Blackburn 40 (Final League Positions Were: 9 / 4 / 6 / 10)
2010-11 Blackpool(P) 52 WBA(P) 47 Bolton 40 Fulham 37 (Final League Positions Were: 19 / 11 / 14 / 8)
2011-12 Newcastle 36 Swansea(P) 45 Norwich(P) 45 Man City 5 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 11 / 12 / 1)
2012-13 Man Utd 3 Everton 27 Swansea 41 WBA 39 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 9 / 8)
2013-14 Liverpool 16 Everton 25 Crystal Palace(P) 49 Southampton 35 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 5 / 11 / 8)

Only 1 scratch team made the top 4 in the 6 season sample.
6 of the 24 possible place positions were filled by one of the big 6 – Average 1 per season - 3 Premiership winners making the top 4.
7 teams promoted to the division from the previous season have figured, including 3 who have won, so it is quite probable bookmakers are underestimating their abilities, so keep an eye on Leicester, QPR and Burnley.
Most likely finishing position to hit the top 4 of the handicap is to finish 6th to 12th in the league.

CHAMPIONSHIP

2009-10 Newcastle(R) Scr Blackpool 29 WBA(R) 1 Nottm Forest 12 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 2 / 3)
2010-11 Norwich(P) 11 Swansea 14 QPR 5 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 1 / 4 – top 4 in league)
2011-12 Southampton(P) 14 Reading 10 Watford 28 Blackpool(R) 14 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 11 / 5)
2012-13 Crystal Palace 27 Hull 15 Watford 17 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 3 / 1)
2013-14 Burnley 24 Leicester 6 Derby 15 Blackburn 13 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 3 / 8)

The top 2 – figured in all 5 seasons and teams finishing in the top 6 filled 18 of the possible 20 place positions.
Only 1 scratch team made the top 4, Newcastle who collected over 100 points in 2009-10.
3 teams relegated from the previous season and 2 teams promoted to the division from the previous season made the top 4, both winning the handicap.

EXCLUDING WATFORD IN 2011-2012 AND BLACKBURN LAST SEASON ALL POSITIONS FILLED BY TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 6.

DIVISION 1

2009-10  Swindon 24 Norwich(R) 6 Millwall 13 Charlton(R) 8 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 1 / 3 / 4)
2010-11  Brighton 12 Exeter(P) 32 Bournemouth(P) 28 Rochdale 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 8 / 6 / 9)
2011-12  Charlton 4 Stevenage(P) 26 Sheff Utd(R) 5 Sheff Wed 2 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 3 / 2)
2012-13  Yeovil 28 Walsall 31 L Orient 27 Doncaster(R) 10 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 9 / 7 / 1)
2013-14    Leyton Orient 19 Wolves Scr Brentford 6 Rotherham(P) 12 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 1 / 2 / 4)

The divisional champions figured in all 5 seasons and teams finishing in the top 9 filled all 20 place positions.
Only 1 scratch team has made the top 4.
4 teams promoted to the division from the previous season and 5 teams relegated from the previous season  have figured.

NO TEAM FINISHING OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 9 FIGURED AT ALL IN THE 5 SEASON SAMPLE.

DIVISION 2

2009-10   Aldershot 25 Notts Co Scr Bournemouth 10 Rochdale 11 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 2 / 3)
2010-11   Accrington 26 Bury 9 Chesterfield 5 Shrewsbury 9 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 1 / 4)
2011-12   Cheltenham 31 Swindon(R) 6 Torquay 17 Southend 17 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 5 / 4)
2012-13   Burton 27 Port Vale 18 Gillingham 12 Cheltenham 16 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 3 / 1 / 5)
2013-14    Rochdale 14 Scunthorpe(R) 10 York 19 Dagenham 28 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 7 / 9)

Teams finishing in the top 6 in the league filled 18 of the 20  place positions. Only Notts Co, under Sven, made it to the top as a scratch team. No promoted team has figured and only 2 relegated teams were placed.

90% of POSITIONS IN THE SAMPLE WERE FILLED BY TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 6.

CONFERENCE

2009-10   Stevenage 7 Rushden 17 York 15 Salisbury 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 4 / 5 / 12)
2010-11   Crawley 5 AFC Wimbledon 17 Wrexham 17 Fleetwood(P) 17 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 2 / 4 / 5)
2011-12   Southport 33 Wrexham 11 Fleetwood 2 Gateshead 25 (Final League Positions Were: 7 / 2 / 1 / 8)
2012-13   Newport 22 Dartford(P) 39 Kidderminster 14 Hyde(P) 42 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 8 / 2 / 18)
2013-14    Braintree 28 Luton 1 Salisbury(P) 33 Nuneaton 34 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 12 / 13)

Teams finishing in the top 8 in the league filled 16 of the possible 20 place positions. No scratch team in any of the top 4's (although Luton were Scratch in places, Forest Green's handicap average was lower) .
3 league winners have figured in the top 4.
4 promoted team have figured but no relegated team has been placed.

NO POSITIONS FILLED BY RELEGATED TEAMS.

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Replies: 29
By:
TheGoddess
When: 02 Aug 14 16:41
My picks:

PREMIERSHIP
Stoke and West Ham

CHAMPIONSHIP
Wigan and Middlesboro

LEAGUE ONE
Bristol City and Leyton Orient

LEAGUE TWO
Shrewsbury and Barnet

Good Luck
By:
loui
When: 02 Aug 14 16:42
great stats , cheers goddess
By:
prepared83
When: 02 Aug 14 17:45
good thread
By:
kenilworth
When: 02 Aug 14 18:08
What's good about it?
By:
Bob Kelso
When: 02 Aug 14 21:38
Not sure about Barnet in League 2
By:
rhharringtpn
When: 02 Aug 14 22:18
Excellent thread, thank you.
By:
jed.davison
When: 02 Aug 14 22:21
Hull are the bet on the Premier League handicaps.
By:
prepared83
When: 02 Aug 14 22:30
ken u clown maybe because someone on here is trying to discuss betting etc, you really do wind me up
By:
tobermory
When: 03 Aug 14 04:23

Aug 2, 2014 -- 12:08PM, kenilworth wrote:


What's good about it?


Because the guy has done good research and his recommendations are well argued . People might get involved with this market without knowing the stuff he has pointed out . eg : a few years back the RP in their pre season pullout recommended dutching Man U & Chelsea  - both @17/1 - on the basis that they'd strengthened in the summer , when anyone who'd given it serious thought would appreciate how it's near impossible to win off scratch or +3 and they both were more like 50/1 shots .

By:
donny osmond
When: 03 Aug 14 11:20
where are the handicaps ?

which ones are we using ?
By:
donny osmond
When: 03 Aug 14 11:28
betfair go with these

Chelsea +0pts
Man City +1pts
Man Utd +4pts
Arsenal +5pts
Liverpool +10pts
Tottenham +16pts
Everton +20pts
Newcastle +34pts
Southampton +35pts
Stoke +38pts
West Ham +38pts
Sunderland +40pts
Hull +42pts
Swansea +42pts
Aston Villa +43pts
Crystal Palace +43pts
Leicester +44pts
QPR +44pts
West Brom +44pts
Burnley +52pts

are the books different



I will take one from the top 7 , one from the middle, and one from the promoted teams


man city 0 at 30
swansea +42 at 14
and
qpr +44 at 17


its poor handicapping by betfair as they should be something like 20 the field
if they got it right

is their a top 7 handicap market on its own ???....that would be far more interesting over the season
By:
The Dragon
When: 03 Aug 14 12:53
good thread and interesting info cheers
By:
dashero
When: 03 Aug 14 13:10
Good thread, I am already on Crystal Palace on the handicap...
By:
Zazu
When: 03 Aug 14 13:11
QPR +44
By:
Burton-Brewers
When: 03 Aug 14 13:19
Stephen Hawking same as last year
By:
johnizere
When: 03 Aug 14 13:20
Swansea +42 looks reasonable to me...
By:
kenilworth
When: 06 Aug 14 21:06
I'll tell anyone what I think is wrong with it...

a) Different bookmakers have their own handicap
b) Betting at 16/1 in a 24 runner handicap is
suicide.
c) The opening stats are meaningless and have no
assistance to anyone silly enough to bet against
around 35% in a 24 runner handicap.
No wonder bookmakers drive about in big cars.
By:
Solano1
When: 06 Aug 14 21:14
I'd be a layer of West Ham in Donny Osmond's market.
By:
kenilworth
When: 06 Aug 14 21:21
prepared83
Joined: 06 May 10
Replies: 3010
    02 Aug 14 22:30   



ken u clown maybe because someone on here is trying to discuss betting etc, you really do wind me up

prepared83, what did you learn from the opening
post?

Do you really bet in 24 runner handicaps?
By:
donny osmond
When: 02 Dec 14 23:26
betfair go with these

Chelsea +0pts............33
Man City +1pts.....,,,,,,,28
Man Utd +4pts.....,,,,,,,,,29
Arsenal +5pts...............25
Liverpool +10pts..,,,,,,,,,,30
Tottenham +16pts............36
Everton +20pts....,,..........37
Newcastle +34pts.............54
Southampton +35pts...,.....61
Stoke +38pts...,,,,,,,,,,.........53
West Ham +38pts......,,,,,,,,,62
Sunderland +40pts...........,..54
Hull +42pts..........................53
Swansea +42pts...................64
Aston Villa +43pts...............59
Crystal Palace +43pts...,,,,,,,56
Leicester +44pts...........,,,,,,,,,,54
QPR +44pts..........................55
West Brom +44pts..,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,57
Burnley +52pts.......................64
By:
kenilworth
When: 03 Dec 14 00:04
prepared, betting in the Premier League handicap
is the same as betting in a 24 horse handicap, you
promoting it really winds me up!!
By:
judorick
When: 03 Dec 14 01:11
I love huge field handicaps, they are the best betting medium in horse racing if you know how to work them out

just saying, won't after time all the winners I've had though


not got a clue about football handicaps though, have had a few goes over the years but never won LaughLaughCrazy
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Dec 14 13:08
lay of wet spam looking shrewd

CoolCool
By:
donny osmond
When: 11 May 15 22:34
hows this going ?
By:
kenilworth
When: 11 May 15 23:16
Did anyone post Bournemouth?
By:
TheGoddess
When: 05 Jul 15 20:10

Aug 2, 2014 -- 10:41AM, TheGoddess wrote:


My picks:PREMIERSHIPStoke and West HamCHAMPIONSHIPWigan and MiddlesboroLEAGUE ONEBristol City and Leyton OrientLEAGUE TWOShrewsbury and BarnetGood Luck


Ahead of this years write up, thought I'd report on last years performance

The league two selections should have read Shrewsbury and BURTON (not Barnet)

If you had permed in 2x2x2x2 ew fourfolds @ £1 stake Total of £32, your return was £1663.75

Stoke, Middlesboro, Bristol C (won) and both Shrewsbury and Burton placed.

BTW, my mistake, Barnet were also placed in the Conference.

WATCH OUT FOR THIS SEASONS WRITE UP

By:
TheGoddess
When: 05 Jul 15 20:12

Aug 3, 2014 -- 7:20AM, johnizere wrote:


Swansea +42 looks reasonable to me...


Well done that man

By:
Si-K
When: 07 Jul 15 00:35
Noiiceee
By:
Clarky9
When: 08 Jul 15 09:48
BTW, my mistake, Barnet were also placed in the Conference.

Confused
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