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MrLay & GTFI's Forum Competition - Win upto £640

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Replies: 3,547
By:
dreambrother09
When: 14 Aug 13 16:12
West Ham to beat Cardiff @ 2.02, number 42
By:
Tifosi Rossonero
When: 14 Aug 13 16:44
Yes please Mr Lay.

Will post a bet once I get a number

Cheers
By:
Lufc86
When: 14 Aug 13 17:36
53

West brom vs southampton over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 on exchange
By:
MrBaboon
When: 14 Aug 13 18:13
57........ West Ham to beat Cardiff @ 2.02
By:
crystalhunt
When: 14 Aug 13 18:21
Deal me in thanks
By:
radix
When: 14 Aug 13 18:22
please add me to the list ... great competition!

no number yet but would like to play - QPR to win over Ipswich @1.92

cheers
By:
sonofshinner
When: 14 Aug 13 19:42
york v hartlepool ov 2.5 @2.1  cheers...
By:
Pamino
When: 14 Aug 13 19:42
If you are still accepting new entries, I'm certainly interested. Sounds like a lot of fun. :)
By:
sternjohn
When: 14 Aug 13 20:08
90. Leeds to beat Sheff Wed at 2.00
By:
The Dragon
When: 14 Aug 13 20:40
add me in please
By:
The Dragon
When: 14 Aug 13 20:53
west ham to beat cardiff at 2,02
By:
tictacman1
When: 14 Aug 13 21:01
no.83..... Leeds to beat Sheff Wed at 2.00 . ty
By:
sol7337
When: 14 Aug 13 21:05
Well done MrLay for doing this again, Count me in please.
By:
the_pessimist
When: 14 Aug 13 21:28
In please Mester Lay

Believe I'm no.100 - Burnley to score 2 or more (v Yeovil Town) @ 1.93
By:
jt45
When: 14 Aug 13 22:24
I would like to enter the competition too please MrLay.

I also have a question (I have only skim read the thread so my apologies if any parts of this query have already been covered):


1. Who ensures that the entrants' selections are genuine?

The competition rules suggest that entrants can select any selection, from any market in any match in any league, at any point prior to 11:00 of the Saturday on any given week during the EPL season. It would seem to involve a lot of work to simply verify that entrants' quoted prices were matched on the given selection.

If the quoted price was matched on an entrant's selection, how is it ensured that it wasn't matched at that price as a result of market manipulation with the aim of increasing the entrant's probability of winning the competition?

As an example, early in a given week an entrant could find a quiet market with a selection they believe to have a probability of in excess of 90% of winning. Using two accounts, cross-matching, or in collusion with another customer, they could match a bet on that selection at the competition acceptable price range of 1.9-2.1 (on a selection likely to be trading at 1.1 come kick off).

I'm not sure if the competition rules further suggest that entrants' bets need actually be placed?

If not, it would seem to involve a quite incredible amount of work to verify that the quoted prices were available, as opposed to matched, at any point in the given market. It may not be possible in some markets unless you're screen scraping all the soccer markets on bf.
By:
crystalhunt
When: 14 Aug 13 22:37
There's always one. It work well last season - leave it to the boss
By:
MrLay0-0
When: 14 Aug 13 22:46

Aug 14, 2013 -- 10:24PM, jt45 wrote:


I would like to enter the competition too please MrLay.I also have a question (I have only skim read the thread so my apologies if any parts of this query have already been covered):1. Who ensures that the entrants' selections are genuine? The competition rules suggest that entrants can select any selection, from any market in any match in any league, at any point prior to 11:00 of the Saturday on any given week during the EPL season. It would seem to involve a lot of work to simply verify that entrants' quoted prices were matched on the given selection.If the quoted price was matched on an entrant's selection, how is it ensured that it wasn't matched at that price as a result of market manipulation with the aim of increasing the entrant's probability of winning the competition?As an example, early in a given week an entrant could find a quiet market with a selection they believe to have a probability of in excess of 90% of winning. Using two accounts, cross-matching, or in collusion with another customer, they could match a bet on that selection at the competition acceptable price range of 1.9-2.1 (on a selection likely to be trading at 1.1 come kick off). I'm not sure if the competition rules further suggest that entrants' bets need actually be placed? If not, it would seem to involve a quite incredible amount of work to verify that the quoted prices were available, as opposed to matched, at any point in the given market. It may not be possible in some markets unless you're screen scraping all the soccer markets on bf.


Because if there is a market that I do not know about, then I will check it at 11AM on saturday when the markets close. If the price is similar to the 1.9-2.1 and seems genuine, even if it is a couple of ticks out that is fine. But say it is not 1.2 the selection wont stand, simplez!

By:
EriskayBet
When: 14 Aug 13 23:47
Can I take part please from previous numbers
102 QPR to win 2.02
By:
onemanarmy
When: 15 Aug 13 00:53
count me in please

many thanks
By:
jt45
When: 15 Aug 13 02:51
MrLay0-0     Joined: 06 Jul 12

Because if there is a market that I do not know about, then I will check it at 11AM on saturday when the markets close. If the price is similar to the 1.9-2.1 and seems genuine, even if it is a couple of ticks out that is fine. But say it is not 1.2 the selection wont stand, simplez!



Comparing entries to the prices available on those selections at 11:00 on Saturday and, with or without discretion, excluding entries with price variation beyond a certain percentage, may well be the best solution available. It does though have its limitations.

My previous post referred to the possibility of intentional price manipulation by an entrant. It's entirely possible that any entrant could opt for a selection that varies significantly in price. As you'll know, it's not particularly unusual for there to be large price movements in some soccer markets.

An honest entrant that opts for a selection trading at 1.9, when he submits his entry on the Wednesday, may be somewhat disappointed if he finds his entry excluded when you discover it trading at 1.53 at 11:00 on Saturday.

If you were to exclude entries without discretion, it would rely on there being sufficient liquidity in the given market for you to establish an accurate price at 11:00 on Saturday or immediately prior to kick off. If there is insufficient liquidity in the market at that time and there have been large price fluctuations in that market and related match markets, it may be difficult to establish the correct current price and thus the variation between that price and the price taken.

Excluding entries without discretion based on price percentage variation, would be likely to either result in a high number of entries being excluded or the acceptance of high price variation, potentially enabling significant manipulation.

If you choose exclude entries with discretion, to do so fairly would presumably require the ability to assess whether the price submitted by the entrant was ‘reasonable’ at the time it was submitted or matched. This could be extremely difficult and time consuming.

The more obscure the markets and the greater the price fluctuations within those markets, the greater the difficulties you could face, regardless of how skilled a price judge you may be. If a lot of entrants pick selections from obscure markets, it may entail a great deal of work and be far from simple. Good luck.
By:
CJ70
When: 15 Aug 13 07:07
My choice this week is likely to be outside the parameters of the 1.9-2.1 range come Sat morning let alone KO time.

As you can see from the market http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=110017410&ex=1 you can no longer get a price on the exchange between the competitions parameters and Sportsbook dont cover the market. Currently books have Botev between 1.83 and 2.0 down from an average of 1.97 on Wednesday and I expect they'll probably come in further.

Hopefully that will be all OK come Saturday.

You can't really manipulate a price on the obscure markets here without it being flagged up. If you try to manipulate the very obscure markets for the process of getting a good pick for this competition a) you are trying to hard and b) could very well set the price of that market.

If anyone wants to try it there's a Lithuania II division game on which never gets any liquidity. Maybe pop up an even money shot there and see if it gets taken? ;)
By:
hynesy1
When: 15 Aug 13 08:49
Count me in please
103 - Arsenal Vs Villa Both teams to score at 1.9
Thanks
By:
superbob
When: 15 Aug 13 08:55
Please add me as a new entry, West Brom over 2.5@ 1.95.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 15 Aug 13 09:52
I'M GOING TO WIN - I'M THE BEST ON HERE.
By:
fairfranco
When: 15 Aug 13 10:01
ah ok do I just pick the next mumber after the previous person?
By:
rommel
When: 15 Aug 13 10:12
count me in please
By:
uptheboro
When: 15 Aug 13 10:46
16: Leeds to beat Sheff Wed evs on sportsbook

Cheers Mr LayHappy
By:
MrLay0-0
When: 15 Aug 13 10:58

Aug 15, 2013 -- 2:51AM, jt45 wrote:


MrLay0-0     Joined: 06 Jul 12Because if there is a market that I do not know about, then I will check it at 11AM on saturday when the markets close. If the price is similar to the 1.9-2.1 and seems genuine, even if it is a couple of ticks out that is fine. But say it is not 1.2 the selection wont stand, simplez!Comparing entries to the prices available on those selections at 11:00 on Saturday and, with or without discretion, excluding entries with price variation beyond a certain percentage, may well be the best solution available. It does though have its limitations.My previous post referred to the possibility of intentional price manipulation by an entrant. It's entirely possible that any entrant could opt for a selection that varies significantly in price. As you'll know, it's not particularly unusual for there to be large price movements in some soccer markets. An honest entrant that opts for a selection trading at 1.9, when he submits his entry on the Wednesday, may be somewhat disappointed if he finds his entry excluded when you discover it trading at 1.53 at 11:00 on Saturday.If you were to exclude entries without discretion, it would rely on there being sufficient liquidity in the given market for you to establish an accurate price at 11:00 on Saturday or immediately prior to kick off. If there is insufficient liquidity in the market at that time and there have been large price fluctuations in that market and related match markets, it may be difficult to establish the correct current price and thus the variation between that price and the price taken.Excluding entries without discretion based on price percentage variation, would be likely to either result in a high number of entries being excluded or the acceptance of high price variation, potentially enabling significant manipulation.If you choose exclude entries with discretion, to do so fairly would presumably require the ability to assess whether the price submitted by the entrant was ‘reasonable’ at the time it was submitted or matched. This could be extremely difficult and time consuming.The more obscure the markets and the greater the price fluctuations within those markets, the greater the difficulties you could face, regardless of how skilled a price judge you may be. If a lot of entrants pick selections from obscure markets, it may entail a great deal of work and be far from simple. Good luck.


Unless I expect someone of cheating, or unless there is a huge odds difference everything will be fine- don't worry buddy :)

By:
MrLay0-0
When: 15 Aug 13 11:14
Plus the rest of the forum, everyone who has entered, can check bets and markets if they haven't heard and/or are suspicous, any help I can get is great!
By:
MrLay0-0
When: 15 Aug 13 11:14
    Number        User        Current Bet        Total Wins        Attempts        T Challenge wins   
    1        MrLay0-0        Man Utd to win @1.99        0                0   
    2        ZCSCS                0                   
    3        bigste        Leeds to win @2.1        0                0   
    4        teo813        Under 2.5 in Liverpool @2        0                0   
    5        CJ70        Botev Plovdiv to win @1.93        0                   
    6        Srichaphan or Ancic?                0                   
    7        DAFFODIL1                0                   
    8        Tony Broke        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    9        stridingedge                0                   
    10        ronin4s                0                   
    11        kellydamo                0                   
    12        tommycockles        Leeds to win @2.1        0                0   
    13        Si-k                0                   
    14        sonoshinner        Over 2.5 goals in York @2.1        0                   
    15        GTFI                0                   
    16        uptheboro        Leeds to win @2.1        0                0   
    17        angeleyz                0                   
    18        Tony67        QPR to win @1.92        0                0   
    19        bluemanc64        Wigan to win @2.02        0                0   
    20        mastiffs                0                   
    21        Jazzythedogue                0                   
    22        buffythebookieslayer                0                   
    23        Pmac                0                   
    24        ****raspberrybottom ****                0                   
    25        Certavietvici                0                   
    26        johnboy85                0                   
    27        themover        Man Utd to win @1.99        0                0   
    28        gotitwrong                0                   
    29        SPOT THE DOG                0                   
    30        POT.NOODLE.HEAD        Juventus to win @2.06        0                   
    31        pumphol                0                   
    32        flipem        Over 2.5 in Norwich @2.04        0                0   
    33        JTMTD1976                0                   
    34        cruso                0                   
    35        Ozymandius                0                   
    36        Goalhanger                0                   
    37        onthehoy                0                   
    38        Dan Chipowski        Over 2.5 goals in Sunderland @2.08        0                0   
    39        YOMOMMA                0                   
    40        TheAltar        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    41        neva win        Over 2.5 goals in Norwich@2.05        0                0   
    42        dreambrother09        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    43        Irish_Celtic        Under 2.5 in Liverpool @2        0                0   
    44        marychain                0                   
    45        mrfishfingers                0                   
    46        Scamp the man        Leeds to win @2.1        0                0   
    47        Pablot                0                   
    48        badjoe                0                   
    49        wisewords        BTTS in Arsenal @1.91        0                0   
    50        stroodle                0                   
    51        stevefrench                0                   
    52        neilmappin                0                   
    53        Lufc86        Over 2.5 goals in West Brom @2        0                0   
    54        Pibituh        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    55        dsmith10        Liverpool to win to nil @2.02        0                0   
    56        Arthur Foxache        Over 2.5 in Norwich @2.04        0                0   
    57        MrBaboon        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    58        BJG                0                   
    59        prepared83                0                   
    60        dukeofpuke                0                   
    61        nortons                0                   
    62        lmfao                0                   
    63        TheChaser                0                   
    64        Agrafador        St Johnstone to win @1.93        0                   
    65        u want some        Forest Green ot win @2        0                   
    66        the bhoys                0                   
    67        treble        Arsenal to win -1.5 @2.1        0                0   
    68        bigwinnereire        Man Utd to win @1.99        0                0   
    69        disgrace..                0                   
    70        addrian                0                   
    71        steview84        Liverpool to win-1  @2.1        0                0   
    72        11kv                0                   
    73        MysticMug        Over 2.5 in Bournemouth        0                0   
    74        pestie        Man Utd to win @1.99        0                0   
    75        cribbage king        Wigan to win @2.02        0                0   
    76        johnizere        Over 2.5 in Liverpool @1.98        0                0   
    77        stewie-griffin        QPR to win @1.92        0                0   
    78        flash harry        Man Utd to win @1.99        0                0   
    79        BrendanScrote        Man Utd to win @1.99        0                0   
    80        Blademan1889                0                   
    81        cedarmaster                0                   
    82        Jayco                0                   
    83        tictacman1        Leeds to win @2.1        0                0   
    84        Mike-lfc        Werder Bremen to win @1.9        0                   
    85        penzance        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    86        the stunning        Werder Bremen to win @1.9        0                   
    87        Taavi191                0                   
    88        CASanMartin                0                   
    89        WestWayStar        Over 2.5 goals in West Brom @2        0                0   
    90        sternjohn        Leeds to win @2.1        0                0   
    91        NonShy        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    92        maggot        Wigan to win @2.02        0                0   
    93        fairfranco                0                   
    94        iamthewho                0                   
    95        milla445                0                   
    96        Tifosi Rossonero                0                   
    97        crystalhunt                0                   
    98        radix        QPR to win @1.92        0                0   
    99        Pamino                0                   
    100        The Dragon        West Ham to win @2.02        0                0   
    101        sol7337                0                   
    102        the_pessimist        Burnley to score 2+  @1.93        0                   
    103        jt45                0                   
    104        EriskayBet        QPR to win @1.92        0                0   
    105        onemanarmy                0                   
    106        hynesy1        BTTS in Arsenal @1.91        0                0   
    107        superbob        Over2.5 goals in West Brom @1.95        0                0   
    108        rommel                0                   
By:
tommycockles
When: 15 Aug 13 11:14
Hi MrLay, thanks again for all your work; one minor point, just noticed  65 Forest Green to beat Nuneaton @ 2  match was played on Tuesday. cheers
By:
MrLay0-0
When: 15 Aug 13 11:15
Thanks, just removed it. u want some will have to post a new bet that is played over the weekend, thanks tommy!
By:
buffythebookieslayer
When: 15 Aug 13 12:07
22- Werder Bremen to beat Augsburg @ 1.96

Thanks MrLay0-0
By:
lyo777
When: 15 Aug 13 12:15
enter me please!
By:
nortons
When: 15 Aug 13 12:18
61 man utd to win at 2.04 thanks
By:
Blademan1889
When: 15 Aug 13 12:45
80.QPR 1.92 to beat Ipswich.

Cheers.
By:
NonShy..
When: 15 Aug 13 13:08
MR LAY - I CAN'T SEE MY NAME ON THE LIST?
By:
Dope
When: 15 Aug 13 13:12
Count me in, please.

I don't have a number yet obviously but here is my 1st week bet:

Under 2.5 Goals in Liverpool @ 2.1
By:
tonyagana
When: 15 Aug 13 13:37
I would also like to join.

My first pick

Under 2.5 Goals Swansea v Man Utd
By:
tonyagana
When: 15 Aug 13 13:39
Under 2.5 Goals in Swansea @2.08
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