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Crawley V Stoke - Am I reading this right?

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Replies: 264
By:
whatdoyaknow
When: 19 Feb 12 13:23
If Stoke were 2/1 pre match I still would have waited about 15 minutes before getting on them...

That statement is ****ing mental.
By:
Forest000
When: 19 Feb 12 13:24
gimp, what they became AFTER kick-off is irrelevant in this case,

At 2.20, if this game was played with the same players 10 times, then stoke would need to win 5 times to make this bet worthwhile.   If laying crawley (I always lay rather than back) at 3.75, then accounting for commission, out of 10 bets Crawley would need to win say 3.3 games.  In addition for trading purposes, they would need to both go ahead in those 3.3 games and keep the lead. 
Do you honestly think crawley would take the lead in this game and then hold onto it 3.3 times out of 10?
Or stoke would not win 5 times?
And that is what makes it value.

Now, the fact that stoke then went to 5's in-play, that is where the skill part of the market comes in, I missed out on this cause I should have layed Crawley and didnt, that was my mistake.

But it doesnt alter the fact that this was a value bet pre-match.

If you dont understand that, then I would suggest you are results orientated, which would give a good chance of you being a losing player
By:
SPOT THE DOG
When: 19 Feb 12 13:24
thanks threetees1 that was my thinking...
By:
pipunch
When: 19 Feb 12 13:28
Forest0000 with one of the most sensible things that has been said in this thread. My position was exactly the same as his, and i've greened for a nice Sunday profit.
By:
c.ronaldo
When: 19 Feb 12 13:28
is there another goal in this game?
By:
SPOT THE DOG
When: 19 Feb 12 13:30
Crawley Town to score the next goal...imo
By:
loadedgimp
When: 19 Feb 12 13:30
Whatdoyaknow, I just dont bet on match odds pre KO, not overly mental just like to see whats happening in a game first.
Forest I don't know what results orientated means, but no I frequent the under 6.5 thread where I pick safer bets and trade out then use the profit to bet on likely things (usually over 1.5 or laying scores).  Usually I would find a team like Stoke and lay them for a bit before backing them - that way I have small profit sitting on a likely outcome but no risk.  It's my way, I tried backing teams but seemed to get let down a lot.  Bayern yesterday, PSV today, Man City v Sunderland, you know those types.
I do see what you mean about Stoke being value pre-match but my view was I couldn't expect to back Stoke-teams vs Crawley-teams at 2.2 prices and expect to turn a profit.
By:
loadedgimp
When: 19 Feb 12 13:33
On reflection I am probably blinded by my hatred for Stoke, and just got annoyed that a pen was given as it ruined my bet on Crouch FGS (over 6/1)
By:
SPOT THE DOG
When: 19 Feb 12 13:34
some of the posts need Deep thinking
By:
dimebar8
When: 19 Feb 12 13:40
Stoke, Tottenham, Liverpool, Barcelona, Ajax
Back    222440357    19-Feb-12
07:59    -          5.14    100.0    Matched

Ajax 2-0 atm too after 10 mins... hoping livepool n tottenham win nice n easily so i can just take out my liability on the multi laying Barca to still take a +400 prof if they win or 0 loss on this multi if they fail Cool
By:
dimebar8
When: 19 Feb 12 13:41
well +300 but over £400 total return...
By:
dan_411
When: 19 Feb 12 13:41
Out of it now, 50p for 10 more minutes is never worth it
By:
pipunch
When: 19 Feb 12 13:42
These blatant market overreactions to things like Stoke being battered by a very decent La Liga team in a European competition are the little edges you need to look for to consistently win.

Basically, most people are morons, so taking advantage of the fact they thought a mediocre lower league team had any chance here against a Premier League team who like to rough it up is what is needed. So it proves to be right, with Crawley not being able to even win against 10-men.
By:
Forest000
When: 19 Feb 12 13:44
Well you can pick value and make money
You can be a skilled trader and make money
You can do both and make a lot of money
If it works for you, I am not knocking it, just trying to get you to understand value a bit better.

Results orientated means that you look at results and base your betting on that, rather than the odds.
For example, with poker, the AA analogy.  You should always get all your money in preflop with AA if possible because you would be favourite to win.  However, someome who has done that and lost 3 times on the trot with AA might not go all in on the 4th time.  This clearly would be a mistake, the AA is thinking in this situation about the losing results and not the fact they are way ahead if they get there money in.
The reverse would be the guy who goes sees that his 94offsuit would have won had he pushed all in against AA.  He made a good fold but by seeing that it would have won, he does indeed push all in with 94o against AA the next time.  Clearly he is going to lose a lot of money here but he makes the move because he is thinking with past events in mind.

To move the analogy back to betting, maybe we could use the Chelsea v United game where United came back from 3-0 down. 
Someone results orientated could see that result, see that Chelsea were 1.05 to lay and that he made a killing.
So when it comes to the next season and United are 3-0 down to chelsea, and the odds are at 2 to lay, he bases his decision on previous results and makes the lay.  Laying Chelsea when they are 3-0 up at 2 is clearly insane, but the guy is again basing things on what happened previously.

To come back to this game, Laying Crawley @ 3.75 imo was value.  I have found this value and acted on it.  But, just because the odds went to 5's midgame, doesnt mean that next time I shouldnt take the 3.75 on Crawley.  Should I decide not to take the 3.75 on Crawley next time would be losing value based on previous results.

I am just popping to shop now before Spurs game but will check back here when home incase you need anything clarifying :D
By:
MeanMrMustard
When: 19 Feb 12 13:45
Taken a free bet now. Time for a spot of lunch before Spurs teach Stevenage a lesson.
By:
NobbyClarke
When: 19 Feb 12 13:46
What makes you think I am xlnc? Everything I said seems justifiable

Comments like that make me think you are xlnc
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 19 Feb 12 13:55
How did they miss that handball on the line there?? Laugh
By:
pipunch
When: 19 Feb 12 13:55
This same thing happened with Barca and Arsenal last week. Because Barca have been drawing a lot in La Liga people were laying them when it was clear they were definitely going to win by their CL form compared with 'Kusens.

Similarly in the Arsenal game people thought Arsenal would do well purely because Milan aren't the force they once were.

Stupid thinking which is devoid of statistics or reasoning. But i don't care, these people just push odds in the favour of the people that actually know about the game of football.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 13:56
Well done The Mighty Potters!

Hope we avoid Arsenal in the next round! Laugh
By:
loadedgimp
When: 19 Feb 12 14:01
Cheers Forest what you say makes a lot of sense and thanks for taking the time to post it.  I try to ignore results now and past games.  I try to bet on odds which will move in my favour (and likely to end up winning) and then trade out for a bit of green.
Yes pipunch Arsenal is a bit different because it is hard for a lot of people to see odds of 3+ and not back it, definitely too much faith in what is not really a great team.  Milan were phenomenal that day!
By:
sofaking
When: 19 Feb 12 14:10
Easy money. Happy
By:
Forest000
When: 19 Feb 12 14:24
no problem gimp

I am going to pm you now :D
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 14:58
JOCI Club 19 Feb 12 09:40 
We really should win, as we did away to Gillingham, but we're in a very poor run of form right now, so I'm not confident. The only thing that gives me a bit of optimism is that this competition was Stoke's success story last season, getting to Wembley for the semis, then demolishing Bolton to make the final. All the players will see this as their chance for glory again (and perhaps another season in Europe), and have little doubt they will be up for it too.

Don't think it's a bad thing to bring in some fresh faces, as we've had Fuller and Jerome warming the bench for most of the season and they will be up for it.

Think it might be tough for the first 30 mins with Crawley throwing everything at us, but I think we should weather the storm and come out with a narrowish victory 0-1 or 0-2.


Think my assessment wasn't bad in the end.
By:
loadedgimp
When: 19 Feb 12 15:06
Spot on JOCI,  I am trying hard to like you despite your team choice Happy
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 16:28
Happy
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