New Posts For Thread: Everton price is way offhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-offThey are 2.72 to back?I don't see them as any more likely to win than Fulham, Bolton, Blackburn or Wolves who are all 3.5ish and playing weaker teams than Bham at home.I just don't get it! I accept Everton are a possibly better than the other away teTempted to back Everton, for reasons given but waiting for team news first. Was expecting slightly better price so would not back at any shorter than available.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468383501#468383501Tempted to back Everton, for reasons given but waiting for team news first. Was expecting slightly better price so would not back at any shorter than available.Fri, 01 Oct 2010 08:37:00 -0500'But "trends" are just that, nothing last forever and less likely to do so if its not a top team involved'Yep - I'd agree witht that statement I think. Nice to have a sensible debate on here for once rather than the usual eejits. Just out of intereshttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468382813#468382813'But "trends" are just that, nothing last forever and less likely to do so if its not a top team involved'Yep - I'd agree witht that statement I think. Nice to have a sensible debate on here for once rather than the usual eejits. Just out of interesFri, 01 Oct 2010 08:31:22 -0500I don't disagree, Everton would accept a draw from this game. But "trends" are just that, nothing last forever and less likely to do so if its not a top team involved. Bottom line is, if you think you have found some value, good luck to you, I am merhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468382297#468382297I don't disagree, Everton would accept a draw from this game. But "trends" are just that, nothing last forever and less likely to do so if its not a top team involved. Bottom line is, if you think you have found some value, good luck to you, I am merFri, 01 Oct 2010 08:26:08 -0500What your saying Phill is that the more something has happened, the less likely it will happen again. This is essentially 'reversion to the mean'. Last year there was a paucity of draws across the premier league in relation to historical averages.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468381473#468381473What your saying Phill is that the more something has happened, the less likely it will happen again. This is essentially 'reversion to the mean'. Last year there was a paucity of draws across the premier league in relation to historical averages.Fri, 01 Oct 2010 08:18:42 -0500Birmingham are a mid table team, possibly overachieving at that. Because they have gone a year without defeat at home, I believe they are more likely, not less likely to loose their next home match in Premier league. It's not a science, just factorshttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468379765#468379765Birmingham are a mid table team, possibly overachieving at that. Because they have gone a year without defeat at home, I believe they are more likely, not less likely to loose their next home match in Premier league. It's not a science, just factorsFri, 01 Oct 2010 08:02:02 -0500So is a trend of Bham being undefeated at home for a year count less than the same trend for Man Utd?They play the same teams? Actually to answer that Q. yes it probably does count for more but what I'm arguing is that the value of that difference ihttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468378501#468378501So is a trend of Bham being undefeated at home for a year count less than the same trend for Man Utd?They play the same teams? Actually to answer that Q. yes it probably does count for more but what I'm arguing is that the value of that difference iFri, 01 Oct 2010 07:50:53 -0500Birmingham by relation are no Man U, that's My point.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468377737#468377737Birmingham by relation are no Man U, that's My point.Fri, 01 Oct 2010 07:43:40 -0500During this run, Everton came the closest to ending it racing into a 2-0 lead last season before a relatively weak surrender.However, as an Everton fan, I can't for the life if me work out why we are favourites for this match!https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468377437#468377437During this run, Everton came the closest to ending it racing into a 2-0 lead last season before a relatively weak surrender.However, as an Everton fan, I can't for the life if me work out why we are favourites for this match!Fri, 01 Oct 2010 07:40:37 -0500Yes but surely as a run like that increases (and I think a year is long enough to constitute a trend rather than an anomoly) the price should increase too. And again 'it has to end some time' is post rationalisation that shouldn't show up in prices!https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468376449#468376449Yes but surely as a run like that increases (and I think a year is long enough to constitute a trend rather than an anomoly) the price should increase too. And again 'it has to end some time' is post rationalisation that shouldn't show up in prices!Fri, 01 Oct 2010 07:31:10 -0500Everton playing better than results, due a win plus Birmingham due a home defeat.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25963761/everton-price-is-way-off?post_id=468375865#468375865Everton playing better than results, due a win plus Birmingham due a home defeat.Fri, 01 Oct 2010 07:25:07 -0500