New Posts For Thread: Probability Questionhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-questionOK, slightly off topic here guys but I am hoping the more learned among you may be able to help! Me and my mate have been having a disagreement. We had a World Cup sweepstake before the tournament and he says that whoever is the 1st to get drawn thIts OK prickard. He only got a 2:2 :)Ah, young Desmond. No doubt he works in the City now.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457271289#457271289Its OK prickard. He only got a 2:2 :)Ah, young Desmond. No doubt he works in the City now.Wed, 14 Jul 2010 16:44:18 -0500dirty arberhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457266485#457266485dirty arberWed, 14 Jul 2010 16:12:02 -0500best to go to sweepstake halfway thru, ask if spain, italy etc has been taken. If not then enter the sweep.If you pick somethink like germany then arb' it on betfair.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457263693#457263693best to go to sweepstake halfway thru, ask if spain, italy etc has been taken. If not then enter the sweep.If you pick somethink like germany then arb' it on betfair.Wed, 14 Jul 2010 15:53:24 -0500The bit of paper doesn't know it has 'winner' written on it, it's clearly 1 in 32.Tell him to hand his degree back to the polyversity he got it fromhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457263237#457263237The bit of paper doesn't know it has 'winner' written on it, it's clearly 1 in 32.Tell him to hand his degree back to the polyversity he got it fromWed, 14 Jul 2010 15:50:33 -0500I completely agree with you ascii but this was my friend's response:I had to have it explained to me by three of my friends who argued long into the night about it but there is a small statistical different on your odds of pulling spain dependinhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457261689#457261689I completely agree with you ascii but this was my friend's response:I had to have it explained to me by three of my friends who argued long into the night about it but there is a small statistical different on your odds of pulling spain dependinWed, 14 Jul 2010 15:40:05 -0500At any point, the probability of a participant winning is: If they not chosen: The sum of the probabilities of the unchosen countries divided by the number of participants yet to choose. If they have chosen: The probability of their team winnhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457247929#457247929At any point, the probability of a participant winning is: If they not chosen: The sum of the probabilities of the unchosen countries divided by the number of participants yet to choose. If they have chosen: The probability of their team winnWed, 14 Jul 2010 14:10:37 -0500marychain1 sums it up bang on. the odds are the same for everyone until the first pick, then spains odds will change one way or the other.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457246501#457246501marychain1 sums it up bang on. the odds are the same for everyone until the first pick, then spains odds will change one way or the other.Wed, 14 Jul 2010 14:00:22 -0500fiftyfourminutes, we are talking about whether any position has an advantage in a sweepstake. Your point is irrelevant, surely you can see that? Its like saying Brazil should have been 1000/1 because after the world cup we know that Spain wonhttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457241921#457241921fiftyfourminutes, we are talking about whether any position has an advantage in a sweepstake. Your point is irrelevant, surely you can see that? Its like saying Brazil should have been 1000/1 because after the world cup we know that Spain wonWed, 14 Jul 2010 13:31:09 -0500It is extremely simple. Every picking position has an equal chance of picking Spain. The fact that 1 in 32 times the person picking first will get Spain does not alter the fact that everyone has an equal chance of picking Spain or any time.https://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457241601#457241601It is extremely simple. Every picking position has an equal chance of picking Spain. The fact that 1 in 32 times the person picking first will get Spain does not alter the fact that everyone has an equal chance of picking Spain or any time.Wed, 14 Jul 2010 13:29:18 -0500as long as the draw is random then odds are the samehttps://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/25374497/probability-question?post_id=457240765#457240765as long as the draw is random then odds are the sameWed, 14 Jul 2010 13:23:28 -0500