Last week saw the profits of this column continue to rise with the correct selections of another Arsenal victory away to Swansea and the 1-1 draw between Real Sociedad and Sevilla at Anoeta.
In midweek, Evan Bartlett successfully tipped Chelsea to triumph in Bucharest with a clean sheet intact on the main Betting.Betfair website and this weekend sees him pick two away day dark horses in England and Spain, a low scoring clash in Italy (for a change) and a home banker over in Germany.
Premier League – Manchester City v Everton
It was feared the departure of David Moyes from Goodison Park would herald the end of a successful era for Everton, that standards may start to slip and that their best players would seek employment elsewhere.
But the arrival of Roberto Martinez has breathed new life into the Merseysiders, with an unbeaten start to the season while playing some of the most attractive football in the league.
They go to the Etihad on Saturday and should fancy their chances against an out of sorts Manchester City team who were taken apart by European champions Bayern Munich in midweek.
Odds of an Everton win at 4.4 in the Draw No Bet market look huge and with City’s Joe Hart looking increasingly nervy between the sticks it would be no surprise to see the Toffees nick it by a goal late on in the game.
La Liga – Athletic Bilbao v Valencia
The biggest game in La Liga this weekend is between fifth-placed Athletic Bilbao and sixth-placed Valencia at the newly built San Mames. Los Che have enjoyed a fine run of form on the north coast in recent years, winning three of the last four encounters between the sides in Bilbao.
Despite enduring a terrible start to the season, reaching that nadir of losing to Swansea 3-0 in the Europa League at Mestalla, but since then they have bounced back to win each of their last four games.
A long away trip to Krasnodar in Russia this week saw Valencia return to Iberia with all three points and they go in to this game against Athletic as the form team. With Bilbao losing 2-0 to a lowly regarded Granada on Monday night, long odds on a Valencia victory seem too good to miss.
Get on Valencia to win in the Draw No Bet market at odds of 2.56.
Serie A – Inter v Roma
This season Serie A has been full of goals, disproving stereotypes every weekend since the opening six weeks ago, with 170 goals in 60 games to date at an average of 2.96.
This abundance of goals means that the odds on over/under 2.5 goals have become somewhat skewed with particularly favourable odds for games that end up to be low scoring.
This weekend sees two of the league’s big guns go head to head with Roma travelling north to face an in form Internazionale. These two sides have the best defensive records in the league so far with the home side’s Samir Handanovic only picking the ball out of his net on three occasions and Roma’s Morgan de Sanctis just once.
With these sides so adept at keeping their clean sheet intact, it would be no surprise to see a low scoring contest here and odds of 2.22 on under 2.5 goals look very tempting.
Bundesliga – Schalke v Augsburg
Schalke have had a very disappointing start to their campaign in the Bundesliga and are floundering in fourteenth place after seven games.
It was hoped the arrival of Kevin Prince-Boateng from Milan would reap rewards for an attacking line already boasting Klaas Jan Huntelaar and one of Europe’s most exciting prospects, Julian Draxler.
But unfortunately for the Royal Blues, this hasn’t quite been the case domestically, although they have started very well in the Champions League, defeating Steaua Bucharest and FC Basel (who beat Chelsea the week before) without conceding a goal.
FC Augsburg will travel to Gelsenkirchen in fairly strong form, sitting in eighth place in the table. But their three wins to date have all come against sides in the bottom six of the table and therefore their current odds are probably too short.
If we put this match into perspective, we can see that Schalke at odds of 1.84 to win are great value. They finished fourth in the Bundesliga last year to Augsburg’s fifteenth and have a raft of talent that has beaten high-flying Bayer Leverkusen in recent weeks. Don’t be fooled by the league table.
Summary
Back Everton DRAW NO BET @ 4.4 (1 pt)
Back Valencia DRAW NO BET @ 2.56 (1 pt)
Back under 2.5 goals between Inter and Roma @ 2.22 (1 pt)
Back Schalke to beat Augsburg @ 1.84 (2 pts)
NB: Odds correct as of 4 October 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket and can also be found on the main Betting.Betfair website.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
013/14 P/L
Wagered: 22 pts
Returned: 32.75 pts
P/L: +48.05%
7 people are following this blog
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Evan Bartlett’s European Football Column – Sep 27-30
27 Sep 13 17:14
After a great start to the season, this blog has seen an enviable return on investment of +52.13% and after picking three winner on his Betting.Betfair debut, Evan Bartlett returns to the Betfair Community with 4 selections ahead of this weekend’s European football action.
In the Premier League, it’s a battle between two of the nation’s most expansive attacking outfits, La Liga witnesses two teams who don’t know how to win, the resurgence of a sleeping giant in Italy and a nitty-gritty mid-table clash in the Bundesliga. Enjoy.
Premier League – Swansea v Arsenal
Arsenal have been in great form this season – following a shaky start in a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa at the Emirates and serious questions being asked about Arsene Wenger’s transfer policy, the Gunners have bounced back with a run of seven wins in a row and have set a new club transfer record with the signing of Mesut Ozil from Real Madrid.
The arrival of the German has galvanised an air of optimism around north London into high-quality attacking play, yielding 10 goals in their last four Premier League games to send them top of the table.
Their opponents on Saturday will be Michael Laudrup’s Swansea who, after a very tricky run of games, proven that they are well capable of building on what was a highly impressive season last year.
The Swans currently sit in the top half of the table and enjoyed one of the most famous results in the club’s history with a 3-0 victory of Valencia at the Mestalla last week.
With the ten games these two sides have played this season witnessing 31 goals and the return of a prolific Nicklas Bendtner in midweek for Arsenal... chances are that odds of 1.84 on over 2.5 goals look very promising.
La Liga – Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Since an opening day victory over lowly Getafe and impressive win over Lyon in the Champions League qualifying round, Real Sociedad have really struggled for form going five games without a win and only finding the net on two occasions.
Sevilla, the visitors to Anoeta on Saturday, have also had a poor start to the season and only picked up their first win in midweek against Rayo.
Their defeat to Valencia last weekend exposed the type of performance their fans on the south coast are unaccustomed to.
This is really a tricky one to call – with both teams having the potential to lose easily and although home favour lies with Sociedad here, slim odds of 2.26 aren’t enough to tempt me. Instead, the draw looks like a good option.
No stadium in Spain witnessed more draws than Anoeta last season (7) and no team drew more on the road than Sevilla (7) and therefore the most attractive bet must be the draw at long odds of 3.55.
Serie A – Cagliari v Inter
Over in Italy, Walter Mazzarri has been working wonders at the blue and black end of San Siro. His Internazionale side currently sit 2nd in Serie A after an unbeaten start to the season that has included a 7-0 thrashing of new boys Sassuolo and the up-and-coming Fiorentina.
Sitting 2nd in the table isn’t that unusual for one of Italy’s premier clubs but when you consider that last season they sacked manager Andrea Stramaccioni after just one season in charge, a season in which the Nerazzurri finished in a lowly 9th place.
This weekend they face Cagliari away in Sardinia and look to be a good option as favourites at 2.02.
Cagliari have gone four games without a win in the league and look to be vulnerable at the back, conceding eight goals in just five games and are yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
Bundesliga – Werder Bremen v Nurnberg
There have been an incredible 176 goals in the Bundesliga already this season at an average of over 3.2 goals per game. Therefore the odds on over/under 2.5 goals have become slightly skewed with very low odds on over 2.5 goals for most games.
However, there is one fixture that jumps out this weekend in what could potentially be a low scoring encounter.
Werder Bremen have struggled for consistency this season – winning three and losing three – and currently sit in mid-table.
Their opponents, FC Nurnberg are one of only three teams in the Bundesliga this season without a win and have struggled in the final third, only scoring six goals from their six games so far.
The 12 games these two teams have played this season have only reaped 28 goals at an average of just 2.33 and therefore odds of 1.97 on under 2.5 goals look tasty.
Summary
Back over 2.5 goals between Arsenal and Swansea @ 1.84 (2 pts)
Back the draw between Real Sociedad and Sevilla @ 3.55 (1 pt)
Back Inter to beat Cagliari @ 2.02 (1 pt)
Back under 2.5 goals between Werder Bremen and Nurnberg @1.97 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 27 September 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
013/14 P/L
Wagered: 15 pts
Returned: 22.82 pts
P/L: +7.82 pts
In the Premier League, it’s a battle between two of the nation’s most expansive attacking outfits, La Liga witnesses two teams who don’t know how to win, the resurgence of a sleeping giant in Italy and a nitty-gritty mid-table clash in the Bundesliga. Enjoy.
Premier League – Swansea v Arsenal
Arsenal have been in great form this season – following a shaky start in a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa at the Emirates and serious questions being asked about Arsene Wenger’s transfer policy, the Gunners have bounced back with a run of seven wins in a row and have set a new club transfer record with the signing of Mesut Ozil from Real Madrid.
The arrival of the German has galvanised an air of optimism around north London into high-quality attacking play, yielding 10 goals in their last four Premier League games to send them top of the table.
Their opponents on Saturday will be Michael Laudrup’s Swansea who, after a very tricky run of games, proven that they are well capable of building on what was a highly impressive season last year.
The Swans currently sit in the top half of the table and enjoyed one of the most famous results in the club’s history with a 3-0 victory of Valencia at the Mestalla last week.
With the ten games these two sides have played this season witnessing 31 goals and the return of a prolific Nicklas Bendtner in midweek for Arsenal... chances are that odds of 1.84 on over 2.5 goals look very promising.
La Liga – Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Since an opening day victory over lowly Getafe and impressive win over Lyon in the Champions League qualifying round, Real Sociedad have really struggled for form going five games without a win and only finding the net on two occasions.
Sevilla, the visitors to Anoeta on Saturday, have also had a poor start to the season and only picked up their first win in midweek against Rayo.
Their defeat to Valencia last weekend exposed the type of performance their fans on the south coast are unaccustomed to.
This is really a tricky one to call – with both teams having the potential to lose easily and although home favour lies with Sociedad here, slim odds of 2.26 aren’t enough to tempt me. Instead, the draw looks like a good option.
No stadium in Spain witnessed more draws than Anoeta last season (7) and no team drew more on the road than Sevilla (7) and therefore the most attractive bet must be the draw at long odds of 3.55.
Serie A – Cagliari v Inter
Over in Italy, Walter Mazzarri has been working wonders at the blue and black end of San Siro. His Internazionale side currently sit 2nd in Serie A after an unbeaten start to the season that has included a 7-0 thrashing of new boys Sassuolo and the up-and-coming Fiorentina.
Sitting 2nd in the table isn’t that unusual for one of Italy’s premier clubs but when you consider that last season they sacked manager Andrea Stramaccioni after just one season in charge, a season in which the Nerazzurri finished in a lowly 9th place.
This weekend they face Cagliari away in Sardinia and look to be a good option as favourites at 2.02.
Cagliari have gone four games without a win in the league and look to be vulnerable at the back, conceding eight goals in just five games and are yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
Bundesliga – Werder Bremen v Nurnberg
There have been an incredible 176 goals in the Bundesliga already this season at an average of over 3.2 goals per game. Therefore the odds on over/under 2.5 goals have become slightly skewed with very low odds on over 2.5 goals for most games.
However, there is one fixture that jumps out this weekend in what could potentially be a low scoring encounter.
Werder Bremen have struggled for consistency this season – winning three and losing three – and currently sit in mid-table.
Their opponents, FC Nurnberg are one of only three teams in the Bundesliga this season without a win and have struggled in the final third, only scoring six goals from their six games so far.
The 12 games these two teams have played this season have only reaped 28 goals at an average of just 2.33 and therefore odds of 1.97 on under 2.5 goals look tasty.
Summary
Back over 2.5 goals between Arsenal and Swansea @ 1.84 (2 pts)
Back the draw between Real Sociedad and Sevilla @ 3.55 (1 pt)
Back Inter to beat Cagliari @ 2.02 (1 pt)
Back under 2.5 goals between Werder Bremen and Nurnberg @1.97 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 27 September 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
013/14 P/L
Wagered: 15 pts
Returned: 22.82 pts
P/L: +7.82 pts
No Comments
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1976 views
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Evan Bartlett’s European Football Column – Sep 20-23
20 Sep 13 13:40
Last week saw a clean sweep for this column, with all four selections coming in to make a tidy profit for its readers.
This week sees Evan Bartlett take his pick of the games in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A with a special week off for his Bundesliga selection (see below for details).
In England, it’s a case of overstretched European commitments, Spain has too many home teams at short odds and in Italy, the game of the weekend is one of the feistiest on the continent.
Premier League – Crystal Palace v Swansea
Following one of the most famous victories in the history of the club, it seems a funny time to back against Swansea.
That 3-0 victory at the Mestalla in midweek will go down in folklore for the Swans but it’s back down to Earth this week with a trip to Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park.
It has been notoriously difficult for clubs playing in the Europa League on a Thursday night to come back to their domestic competition and do the business at the weekend and it should be no different here for a Swansea side facing an away trip to a newly promoted Palace team growing in confidence.
With relatively smaller resources than other teams playing in Europe, Swansea may just struggle this year as their squad is stretched by commitments across 4 competitions, much in the same way that Newcastle floundered last year.
Palace come in to this game after a tough trip to Manchester United, losing 2-0. But by no means did they disgrace themselves at the home of the champions and they will have grown in confidence now after getting their first win of the campaign against Paolo Di Canio’s Sunderland the week before.
Quite simply, this is the best possible time for the Eagles to play Laudrup’s men and therefore take my fancy in the Draw No Bet market at odds of 2.46.
La Liga – Real Sociedad v Malaga
Following disappointing European defeats in midweek, it is surprising that Valencia (1.97) and Real Sociedad (2.0) are so short for their home games this weekend against Sevilla and Malaga respectively.
It’s not only the manner of their defeats in midweek but the calibre of the opposition they will be facing back in Spain that make their prices look so unattractive.
While Sevilla have suffered an uncharacteristically dreadful start to the season, sitting down in 19th spot after the first four games, Valencia haven’t fared much better – losing three on the bounce after a close opening day victory over Malaga being their only points so far.
But it’s that team, Malaga (4.3), that take my fancy this week, after that disappointing start against Los Che they had to travel to Camp Nou and, understandably, came away empty handed. But since then there is a feeling that fortunes at the South Coast club are on the up – most noticeably in their 5-0 demolition job over Rayo last weekend.
Despite opening the season with two wins in La Liga, their opponents Real Sociedad have now gone three games without a win in the league and suffered a disappointing result in midweek against Shakhtar Donetsk in their opening Champions League group game.
Away games to the likes of the Txuri-Urdin are always tough in La Liga, but I do think Los Boquerones are priced too long in this one. Therefore, get on Malaga to win in the Draw No Bet market at generous odds of 3.05.
Serie A – Roma v Lazio
Over in Italy, the main spectacle of the weekend has to be the ‘Derby della Capitale’ between Roma and Lazio on Sunday afternoon.
Stadio Olimpico plays host to one of the fiercest rivalries in Europe where terraces and tempers flare alike.
Roma sit in second place after three games with a 100% start to the season. And despite the losses of Erik Lamela to Tottenham and Marquinhos to PSG they have re-strengthened with the likes of Adem Ljajic and Mehdi Benatia coming in not to mention the evergreen performances of stalwarts Francesco Totti and Daniele de Rossi.
Lazio have also started well enough this year, two wins from three and their only defeat coming at the hands of champions Juventus. With Miroslav Klose still poaching goals for the Aquilotti they are a force to be reckoned with on the counter attack.
In fact, this one is close to call, of the last six meetings between the sides, Lazio have won an impressive four games. But with this acting as the away fixture for Lazio (as both teams play at Stadio Olimpico) with less support in the hostile atmosphere, it could be a tighter game than previous meetings with the draw at 3.45 looking to be a good option.
But what really interests me is the ‘sending off’ odds of 2.52. Of the last 12 encounters between the sides there have been an incredible 14 red cards with the ‘sending off’ bet paying out in 9 of the 12 matches. On a heated derby day, you’d be brave to bet against it.
Bundesliga – Schalke v Bayern Munich
This week, I am pleased to announce that I’ve been working hard on my first piece for the main Betting.Betfair website. As such, please copy and paste this link - http://betting.betfair.com/football/german-football/schalke-v-bayern-munich-everything-points-to-another-win-for-the-bundesliga-champions-190913-678.html - into your browser for this week’s Bundesliga tips on the clash between Schalke and Bayern Munich.
Summary
Back Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ 2.46 (1 pt)
Back Malaga Draw No Bet @ 3.05 (1 pt)
Back the sending off between Roma and Lazio @ 2.52 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 20th September 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
013/14 P/L
Wagered: 15 pts
Returned: 22.82 pts
P/L: +52.13%
This week sees Evan Bartlett take his pick of the games in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A with a special week off for his Bundesliga selection (see below for details).
In England, it’s a case of overstretched European commitments, Spain has too many home teams at short odds and in Italy, the game of the weekend is one of the feistiest on the continent.
Premier League – Crystal Palace v Swansea
Following one of the most famous victories in the history of the club, it seems a funny time to back against Swansea.
That 3-0 victory at the Mestalla in midweek will go down in folklore for the Swans but it’s back down to Earth this week with a trip to Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park.
It has been notoriously difficult for clubs playing in the Europa League on a Thursday night to come back to their domestic competition and do the business at the weekend and it should be no different here for a Swansea side facing an away trip to a newly promoted Palace team growing in confidence.
With relatively smaller resources than other teams playing in Europe, Swansea may just struggle this year as their squad is stretched by commitments across 4 competitions, much in the same way that Newcastle floundered last year.
Palace come in to this game after a tough trip to Manchester United, losing 2-0. But by no means did they disgrace themselves at the home of the champions and they will have grown in confidence now after getting their first win of the campaign against Paolo Di Canio’s Sunderland the week before.
Quite simply, this is the best possible time for the Eagles to play Laudrup’s men and therefore take my fancy in the Draw No Bet market at odds of 2.46.
La Liga – Real Sociedad v Malaga
Following disappointing European defeats in midweek, it is surprising that Valencia (1.97) and Real Sociedad (2.0) are so short for their home games this weekend against Sevilla and Malaga respectively.
It’s not only the manner of their defeats in midweek but the calibre of the opposition they will be facing back in Spain that make their prices look so unattractive.
While Sevilla have suffered an uncharacteristically dreadful start to the season, sitting down in 19th spot after the first four games, Valencia haven’t fared much better – losing three on the bounce after a close opening day victory over Malaga being their only points so far.
But it’s that team, Malaga (4.3), that take my fancy this week, after that disappointing start against Los Che they had to travel to Camp Nou and, understandably, came away empty handed. But since then there is a feeling that fortunes at the South Coast club are on the up – most noticeably in their 5-0 demolition job over Rayo last weekend.
Despite opening the season with two wins in La Liga, their opponents Real Sociedad have now gone three games without a win in the league and suffered a disappointing result in midweek against Shakhtar Donetsk in their opening Champions League group game.
Away games to the likes of the Txuri-Urdin are always tough in La Liga, but I do think Los Boquerones are priced too long in this one. Therefore, get on Malaga to win in the Draw No Bet market at generous odds of 3.05.
Serie A – Roma v Lazio
Over in Italy, the main spectacle of the weekend has to be the ‘Derby della Capitale’ between Roma and Lazio on Sunday afternoon.
Stadio Olimpico plays host to one of the fiercest rivalries in Europe where terraces and tempers flare alike.
Roma sit in second place after three games with a 100% start to the season. And despite the losses of Erik Lamela to Tottenham and Marquinhos to PSG they have re-strengthened with the likes of Adem Ljajic and Mehdi Benatia coming in not to mention the evergreen performances of stalwarts Francesco Totti and Daniele de Rossi.
Lazio have also started well enough this year, two wins from three and their only defeat coming at the hands of champions Juventus. With Miroslav Klose still poaching goals for the Aquilotti they are a force to be reckoned with on the counter attack.
In fact, this one is close to call, of the last six meetings between the sides, Lazio have won an impressive four games. But with this acting as the away fixture for Lazio (as both teams play at Stadio Olimpico) with less support in the hostile atmosphere, it could be a tighter game than previous meetings with the draw at 3.45 looking to be a good option.
But what really interests me is the ‘sending off’ odds of 2.52. Of the last 12 encounters between the sides there have been an incredible 14 red cards with the ‘sending off’ bet paying out in 9 of the 12 matches. On a heated derby day, you’d be brave to bet against it.
Bundesliga – Schalke v Bayern Munich
This week, I am pleased to announce that I’ve been working hard on my first piece for the main Betting.Betfair website. As such, please copy and paste this link - http://betting.betfair.com/football/german-football/schalke-v-bayern-munich-everything-points-to-another-win-for-the-bundesliga-champions-190913-678.html - into your browser for this week’s Bundesliga tips on the clash between Schalke and Bayern Munich.
Summary
Back Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ 2.46 (1 pt)
Back Malaga Draw No Bet @ 3.05 (1 pt)
Back the sending off between Roma and Lazio @ 2.52 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 20th September 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
013/14 P/L
Wagered: 15 pts
Returned: 22.82 pts
P/L: +52.13%
No Comments
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2074 views
]
Evan Bartlett’s European Football Column – Week #4
13 Sep 13 08:09
A full roster of international action meant we had a week off last weekend but a return to domestic action means a return to top-quality betting tips.
This week Evan Bartlett predicts plenty of goals in England and Germany, fancies Atletico Madrid to continue their perfect start to the season in La Liga and picks a winner from the clash of the new boys in Serie A.
The European Football Column made a tidy profit of +31.25% in week #3, extending its winning start to the season. Let’s hope that form continues into week #4...
Premier League – England
Despite only scoring three goals this season, Liverpool sit in first place in the Premier League table thanks to three single-goal victories and will be looking to extend that run of form against Swansea.
The Swans on the other hand will be ruing their luck – with four of their first six fixtures coming against teams from the top 7 of last season – they sit down in 16th thanks to two early defeats.
But despite those losses to Manchester United and Tottenham, the Welsh club showed their class with a 2-0 victory in a tricky away game against West Brom last time out and will be a stern test for the Merseysiders this weekend.
Both clubs have plenty of goalscoring prowess – Liverpool averaged 2 goals per game away from home last season with Swansea managing 1.47 at the Liberty Stadium – so we can expect plenty of goals here.
Odds of 2.06 on over 2.5 goals look to be a steal with the likes of Michu, WIlfried Bony, Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge all set to feature this weekend.
La Liga – Spain
Well Real Madrid did it at last. Gareth Bale will join the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Isco and Luka Modric at the Santiago Bernabeu as they look to close in on La Décima (their 10th European crown).
But it’s across the capital we look this week, to Atletico Madrid, who look strong favourites to beat a struggling Almeria.
Atleti sit atop the La Liga table at this early stage with 3 wins out of 3 and signs that David Villa is starting to settle into their already impressive forward line are encouraging.
Simeone’s men love to get off to quick starts – looking back at their last 25 victories in the league, going back to the beginning of last season, they have been ahead at half-time in an impressive 15 of those games.
If we consider that they should dismiss Almeria with ease, we can infer that it is likely they will be ahead by half-time and put the game to bed comfortably before the 90 minutes are up – making odds of 1.81 on Atletico to be winning at HT/FT just too good to miss.
Serie A – Italy
With attention returning to Serie A after the national team secured their place at next summer’s World Cup the main surprise has to be the long odds on Verona for their home clash against fellow new boys Sassuolo.
Despite winning the Serie B title last season, Sassuolo have looked out of their depth so far in Serie A – currently sitting bottom of the pile after two games and favourites to go down with odds of 1.68.
The Gialloblu, on the other hand, have strengthened drastically in the close season and look much stronger than their odds of 2.26 for victory suggest.
Their return to Serie A was announced with that 2-1 win over Milan on the opening day with veteran Luca Toni bagging twice. And despite a disappointing defeat to Roma since, I expect Andrea Mandorlini’s men to do the business this weekend.
Defensive solidity, marked by the best record in Serie B last season, coupled with an improved attacking line-up means all signs are promising for the team from Veneto.
Bundesliga – Germany
Has there ever been a game more destined to be a goal-fest than Sunday’s encounter between Hoffenheim and Borussia Monchengladbach? The eight games involving these two teams this season have featured an incredible 42 goals.
A leaky defence coupled with incisive counter-attacking play mean Hoffenheim not only have the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga – conceding 12, but also the most goals in favour – scoring 12.
In return, M’gladbach have the second best attack in the league (scoring 10) and a comparatively much ‘stronger’ defence – only conceding 8!
Thankfully for Hoffenheim, their two top scorers this season, Roberto Firmino and Kevin Volland, didn’t make it into their national team squads in the recent break and should be firing on all cylinders with a return of domestic fixtures.
Picking a winner in this clash is tricky, both teams are so unpredictable – a 5-1 victory here, a 6-2 defeat there. Perhaps home advantage will play into Hoffenheim’s hands but the best bet has to be over 2.5 goals at 1.7.
Summary
Back over 2.5 goals between Liverpool and Swansea @ 2.06 (1 pt)
Back Atletico/Atletico in the HT/FT market @ 1.81 (1 pt)
Back Verona to beat Sassuolo @ 2.26 (1 pt)
Back over 2.5 goals between Hoffenheim and M’gladbach @ 1.7 (2 pts)
NB: Odds correct as of 12th September 2013.
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
2013/14 P/L
Wagered: 10 pts
Returned: 13.29 pts
P/L: +32.9%
This week Evan Bartlett predicts plenty of goals in England and Germany, fancies Atletico Madrid to continue their perfect start to the season in La Liga and picks a winner from the clash of the new boys in Serie A.
The European Football Column made a tidy profit of +31.25% in week #3, extending its winning start to the season. Let’s hope that form continues into week #4...
Premier League – England
Despite only scoring three goals this season, Liverpool sit in first place in the Premier League table thanks to three single-goal victories and will be looking to extend that run of form against Swansea.
The Swans on the other hand will be ruing their luck – with four of their first six fixtures coming against teams from the top 7 of last season – they sit down in 16th thanks to two early defeats.
But despite those losses to Manchester United and Tottenham, the Welsh club showed their class with a 2-0 victory in a tricky away game against West Brom last time out and will be a stern test for the Merseysiders this weekend.
Both clubs have plenty of goalscoring prowess – Liverpool averaged 2 goals per game away from home last season with Swansea managing 1.47 at the Liberty Stadium – so we can expect plenty of goals here.
Odds of 2.06 on over 2.5 goals look to be a steal with the likes of Michu, WIlfried Bony, Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge all set to feature this weekend.
La Liga – Spain
Well Real Madrid did it at last. Gareth Bale will join the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Isco and Luka Modric at the Santiago Bernabeu as they look to close in on La Décima (their 10th European crown).
But it’s across the capital we look this week, to Atletico Madrid, who look strong favourites to beat a struggling Almeria.
Atleti sit atop the La Liga table at this early stage with 3 wins out of 3 and signs that David Villa is starting to settle into their already impressive forward line are encouraging.
Simeone’s men love to get off to quick starts – looking back at their last 25 victories in the league, going back to the beginning of last season, they have been ahead at half-time in an impressive 15 of those games.
If we consider that they should dismiss Almeria with ease, we can infer that it is likely they will be ahead by half-time and put the game to bed comfortably before the 90 minutes are up – making odds of 1.81 on Atletico to be winning at HT/FT just too good to miss.
Serie A – Italy
With attention returning to Serie A after the national team secured their place at next summer’s World Cup the main surprise has to be the long odds on Verona for their home clash against fellow new boys Sassuolo.
Despite winning the Serie B title last season, Sassuolo have looked out of their depth so far in Serie A – currently sitting bottom of the pile after two games and favourites to go down with odds of 1.68.
The Gialloblu, on the other hand, have strengthened drastically in the close season and look much stronger than their odds of 2.26 for victory suggest.
Their return to Serie A was announced with that 2-1 win over Milan on the opening day with veteran Luca Toni bagging twice. And despite a disappointing defeat to Roma since, I expect Andrea Mandorlini’s men to do the business this weekend.
Defensive solidity, marked by the best record in Serie B last season, coupled with an improved attacking line-up means all signs are promising for the team from Veneto.
Bundesliga – Germany
Has there ever been a game more destined to be a goal-fest than Sunday’s encounter between Hoffenheim and Borussia Monchengladbach? The eight games involving these two teams this season have featured an incredible 42 goals.
A leaky defence coupled with incisive counter-attacking play mean Hoffenheim not only have the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga – conceding 12, but also the most goals in favour – scoring 12.
In return, M’gladbach have the second best attack in the league (scoring 10) and a comparatively much ‘stronger’ defence – only conceding 8!
Thankfully for Hoffenheim, their two top scorers this season, Roberto Firmino and Kevin Volland, didn’t make it into their national team squads in the recent break and should be firing on all cylinders with a return of domestic fixtures.
Picking a winner in this clash is tricky, both teams are so unpredictable – a 5-1 victory here, a 6-2 defeat there. Perhaps home advantage will play into Hoffenheim’s hands but the best bet has to be over 2.5 goals at 1.7.
Summary
Back over 2.5 goals between Liverpool and Swansea @ 2.06 (1 pt)
Back Atletico/Atletico in the HT/FT market @ 1.81 (1 pt)
Back Verona to beat Sassuolo @ 2.26 (1 pt)
Back over 2.5 goals between Hoffenheim and M’gladbach @ 1.7 (2 pts)
NB: Odds correct as of 12th September 2013.
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
2013/14 P/L
Wagered: 10 pts
Returned: 13.29 pts
P/L: +32.9%
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Evan Bartlett's European Football Column - Week #3
30 Aug 13 15:28
This week sees Evan Bartlett – take his pick of the market in the north London derby, astonished at the odds in Spain, back Benitez’s men in Italy and fancy a home banker in the Bundesliga.
Premier League – England
The second of Sunday’s two local derbies in the Premier League sees Tottenham make the short trip across north London to play Arsenal at the Emirates.
The respective pre-seasons for the London rivals has been dominated by their transfer activity (or lack of it). Gareth Bale’s proposed move to Real Madrid has formed the greatest transfer saga of the summer so far and Arsene Wenger’s reluctance to spend any money whatsoever has proven to be a recurring nightmare for Arsenal fans.
The Gunners have come back strong following that disappointing opening day defeat to Aston Villa but an injury to free-scoring Lukas Podolski and a lack of support up front for Olivier Giroud must worry Wenger in the long-term.
Two understated victories for Spurs – both with clean sheets – promise much more for the rest of the season and even if Bale is to leave you just get the feeling this Spurs side are about to explode onto the scene.
Spurs look a great bet at 2.6 to beat Arsenal in the DRAW NO BET market.
La Liga – Spain
This round of games in Spain is set to be a cracker, with ties including Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao, Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid, Sevilla v Malaga and Valencia v Barcelona topping the bill.
Of those, the most glaringly generous odds are 1.58 on a Barcelona victory at the Mestalla. While such short odds-on wouldn’t usually suggest good value for the punter, let’s remember that Valencia haven’t beaten Barcelona in the league since 2007 and that was when their squad still included the likes of David Villa and Fernando Morientes.
Since then, their squad has been picked off by the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid and the rest of Europe’s top clubs and Los Che are now in millions of pounds worth of debt.
Barcelona on the other hand, are still one of the best sides in Europe and boast an embarrassment of attacking riches in the likes of Lionel Messi, Neymar, Cesc Fabregas, Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta etc etc.
Those odds of 1.58 don’t look too shabby now, do they?
Serie A – Italy
A brace from captain Marek Hamsik, and impressive debut performances from ex-Real Madrid men Jose Callejon and Gonzalo Higuain saw Napoli run out easy winners against Bologna on the opening day.
Rafael Benitez’s men have become most people’s second favourites behind Juventus for the Scudetto this year and their opening display will have gone quite some way to reassure their backers.
Despite the loss of Cavani, replacements such as Higuain and Callejon up front as well as Raul Albiol and Pepe Reina at the other end of the pitch look to have strengthened the squad over the summer.
Their midweek preparations haven’t been ideal for their upcoming match against Chievo – drawn in a tough Champions League group against Arsenal, Dortmund and Marseille followed by the media storm caused by club Chairman Aurelio De Laurentiis who threatened to sue the local authority for giving substandard medical care to star striker Gonzalo Higuain (for ‘falling’ off a yacht in Capri and requiring stitches to his face).
It’s unclear whether the Argentine will feature this weekend, but regardless, Napoli should run out as winners at Chievo with odds of 1.86.
Bundesliga – Germany
The start of the Bundesliga season has been a nightmare for Thorsten Fink’s Hamburg with just one solitary point from their opening three games. But this weekend’s fixture at home to Eintracht Braunschweig gives them a great opportunity to get the first win on the board.
The Bundesliga celebrated its 50th birthday this week and the fact that Hamburg are the only team to have been ever-present in the top-flight since its inauguration in 1963 has left some baffled by their poor start to this campaign.
Their odds of 1.81 against a newly promoted Braunschweig, who have lost all three of their games so far, are probably a bit inflated considering that Hamburg should win this one comfortably.
Their early form is certainly cause for concern, and rumours of a transfer bid for Arsenal’s Nicklas Bendtner can’t have allayed supporters’ fears all that much, but with the likes of Rafael Van der Vaart and Artjoms Rudnevs they should prove too strong for a Braunschweig team that look out of their depth in the top-flight.
Summary
Back Tottenham DRAW NO BET at 2.6 (1 pt)
Back Barcelona to beat Valencia at 1.58 (1 pt)
Back Napoli to beat Chievo at 1.86 (1 pt)
Back Hamburg to beat Braunschweig at 1.81 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 30 August 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist based in London. His football tips returned a profit of +58.08% last season – after 13 points staked gave a return of 20.55. His best picks were Nigeria to win AFCON 2013 at 10.5 and Shakhtar to qualify from Champions League Group E at 2.9.
You can follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett
13/14 Profit/Loss
Wagered: 6 pts
Returned: 8.04 pts
P/L: + 2.04 pts
Premier League – England
The second of Sunday’s two local derbies in the Premier League sees Tottenham make the short trip across north London to play Arsenal at the Emirates.
The respective pre-seasons for the London rivals has been dominated by their transfer activity (or lack of it). Gareth Bale’s proposed move to Real Madrid has formed the greatest transfer saga of the summer so far and Arsene Wenger’s reluctance to spend any money whatsoever has proven to be a recurring nightmare for Arsenal fans.
The Gunners have come back strong following that disappointing opening day defeat to Aston Villa but an injury to free-scoring Lukas Podolski and a lack of support up front for Olivier Giroud must worry Wenger in the long-term.
Two understated victories for Spurs – both with clean sheets – promise much more for the rest of the season and even if Bale is to leave you just get the feeling this Spurs side are about to explode onto the scene.
Spurs look a great bet at 2.6 to beat Arsenal in the DRAW NO BET market.
La Liga – Spain
This round of games in Spain is set to be a cracker, with ties including Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao, Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid, Sevilla v Malaga and Valencia v Barcelona topping the bill.
Of those, the most glaringly generous odds are 1.58 on a Barcelona victory at the Mestalla. While such short odds-on wouldn’t usually suggest good value for the punter, let’s remember that Valencia haven’t beaten Barcelona in the league since 2007 and that was when their squad still included the likes of David Villa and Fernando Morientes.
Since then, their squad has been picked off by the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid and the rest of Europe’s top clubs and Los Che are now in millions of pounds worth of debt.
Barcelona on the other hand, are still one of the best sides in Europe and boast an embarrassment of attacking riches in the likes of Lionel Messi, Neymar, Cesc Fabregas, Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta etc etc.
Those odds of 1.58 don’t look too shabby now, do they?
Serie A – Italy
A brace from captain Marek Hamsik, and impressive debut performances from ex-Real Madrid men Jose Callejon and Gonzalo Higuain saw Napoli run out easy winners against Bologna on the opening day.
Rafael Benitez’s men have become most people’s second favourites behind Juventus for the Scudetto this year and their opening display will have gone quite some way to reassure their backers.
Despite the loss of Cavani, replacements such as Higuain and Callejon up front as well as Raul Albiol and Pepe Reina at the other end of the pitch look to have strengthened the squad over the summer.
Their midweek preparations haven’t been ideal for their upcoming match against Chievo – drawn in a tough Champions League group against Arsenal, Dortmund and Marseille followed by the media storm caused by club Chairman Aurelio De Laurentiis who threatened to sue the local authority for giving substandard medical care to star striker Gonzalo Higuain (for ‘falling’ off a yacht in Capri and requiring stitches to his face).
It’s unclear whether the Argentine will feature this weekend, but regardless, Napoli should run out as winners at Chievo with odds of 1.86.
Bundesliga – Germany
The start of the Bundesliga season has been a nightmare for Thorsten Fink’s Hamburg with just one solitary point from their opening three games. But this weekend’s fixture at home to Eintracht Braunschweig gives them a great opportunity to get the first win on the board.
The Bundesliga celebrated its 50th birthday this week and the fact that Hamburg are the only team to have been ever-present in the top-flight since its inauguration in 1963 has left some baffled by their poor start to this campaign.
Their odds of 1.81 against a newly promoted Braunschweig, who have lost all three of their games so far, are probably a bit inflated considering that Hamburg should win this one comfortably.
Their early form is certainly cause for concern, and rumours of a transfer bid for Arsenal’s Nicklas Bendtner can’t have allayed supporters’ fears all that much, but with the likes of Rafael Van der Vaart and Artjoms Rudnevs they should prove too strong for a Braunschweig team that look out of their depth in the top-flight.
Summary
Back Tottenham DRAW NO BET at 2.6 (1 pt)
Back Barcelona to beat Valencia at 1.58 (1 pt)
Back Napoli to beat Chievo at 1.86 (1 pt)
Back Hamburg to beat Braunschweig at 1.81 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 30 August 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist based in London. His football tips returned a profit of +58.08% last season – after 13 points staked gave a return of 20.55. His best picks were Nigeria to win AFCON 2013 at 10.5 and Shakhtar to qualify from Champions League Group E at 2.9.
You can follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett
13/14 Profit/Loss
Wagered: 6 pts
Returned: 8.04 pts
P/L: + 2.04 pts
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Evan Bartlett's European Football Column – Week #2
22 Aug 13 08:08
Last week saw Evan Bartlett’s first European Football Column get off to a winning start with all three tips coming in at a profit of 98.67%. Tottenham managed to start their season with a solid 1-0 away win against newly promoted Crystal Palace and we saw over 2.5 goals in both Atletico Madrid’s win against Sevilla and Mainz’s victory over Freiburg. This week sees the start of the Serie A season as well as a bumper round of games in England, Spain and Germany.
Premier League – England
The big three of Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea all started with wins under their new managers and our hopes of a close title race look better than ever. Elsewhere, Tottenham got their campaign off to a good start without wantaway Gareth Bale.
Meanwhile, their North London rivals Arsenal have had a torrid start to their season and after a summer when the club have spent no money, a 3-1 home defeat to Aston Villa understandably provoked supporter unrest. A 3-0 victory away to Fenerbahce in the 1st leg of their Champions League qualifier will have softened that blow somewhat but they will need to build on that with a strong performance against Fulham this weekend.
The highlight of the upcoming weekend’s Premier League action however is undoubtedly Chelsea’s trip to Old Trafford on Monday night where David Moyes will face his first big test as Manchester United manager.
Chelsea on the DRAW NO BET market at 2.16 looks a great option. In 15 previous ties against Manchester United, Mourinho’s teams have only lost on two occasions.
And while this is a completely new Chelsea squad, it does suggest that the Special One knows how to set his team up against the current champions and this will be an ideal time to strike against David Moyes in the early days of his tenure at Old Trafford.
La Liga – Spain
Business as usual in Spain last weekend as Barcelona and Real Madrid opened their campaigns with victory. But that rather simplifies the story. While Barcelona romped home to a 7-0 thrashing of Levante at Camp Nou, Real Madrid were given a stern test from Real Betis at the Santiago Bernabeu with a close 2-1 win sealed late on by debutant Isco.
Elsewhere, last season’s 3rd placed team Atletico Madrid impressed with a 3-1 win in a tricky game away to Sevilla and Athletic Bilbao showed signs of improvement on last season with a 2-1 win away to Valladolid.
The upcoming weekend sees plenty of evenly matched fixtures – except those involving Real and Barcelona. Rayo could prove slightly tougher opponents for Atletico than their odds of 12.5 suggest.
Real Sociedad will fancy their chances in their visit to newly promoted Elche who lost 3-0 on the opening day to Rayo and odds of 2.3 for a Basque victory do look appealing particularly after a mid-week win away to Lyon in the Champions League.
But one that really catches the eye is Villarreal against Valladolid in what looks set to be an open and attacking game. Above evens odds for over 2.5 goals in this fixture look too good to miss and are currently sat at a high 2.08.
The games involving these two sides last weekend saw a total of 8 goals and with the likes of Gio dos Santos, Jonathan and Javi Guerra lining up in this one, we can expect plenty of goals.
Serie A – Italy
New managers at Napoli (8.4), Inter (14) and Roma (32) make this Serie A season a fascinating one, with lots of uncertainties in the upper-half of the table – can Benitez take Napoli to the next level, can Mazzarri unite an Inter in disarray and will Rudi Garcia galvanise Roma into genuine title contenders?
One thing we do know for sure – that Juventus will be there or thereabouts in the title race and will be the team to beat for any side with genuine Scudetto ambitions.
AC Milan (6.4) have been under the radar slightly this season and look a decent bet to challenge for the title – they will be hoping their attractive attacking line with a settled Mario Balotelli and the exciting Stephan El Shaarawy can develop into a potent weapon.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina (15.5) will be many people’s dark horses with the signings of Mario Gomez, Josip Ilicic and Joaqin adding to an already exciting forward line.
Despite the abundance of goalscorers throughout the league, Serie A has a reputation for a lack of goals due to the emphasis placed on defensive strategy rather than attacking flair. But last season saw a total of 1,003 goals in the league at 2.64 goals per game. The Bundesliga (only 18 teams) had a total of 898 goals at exactly the same ratio of goals per game (2.64) and La Liga, without the free-scoring of Barcelona and Real Madrid had only 2.60 goals per game.
This slight misconception about Serie A means odds on over 2.5 goals per game can be attractive.
Last season, games involving Juve contained 95 goals (@2.5/game) and those involving Sampdoria contained 94 goals (@2.47/game).
With the additions of Fernando Llorente and Carlos Tevez at Juventus, odds of 2.02 on over 2.5 goals in their opening game away to Sampdoria look attractive.
Bundesliga – Germany
Over in the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich and Dortmund continued their winning start to the season with victories over Eintracht Frankfurt and Eintracht Braunschweig respectively. Joining them are Bayer Leverkusen, Mainz and Werder Bremen also on six points after their first two games.
The stand out results from the weekend however were Wolfsburg’s 4-0 win over Schalke and Hoffenheim’s 5-1 demolition job away to Rafael Van der Vaart’s Hamburg.
This week’s set of fixtures sees two of those undefeated teams line-up against each other with Dortmund hosting Werder Bremen as well as Bayern Munich taking on Nuremburg who have started their season with two 2-2 draws.
Bayer Leverkusen face a tough home fixture against Borussia Mönchengladbach who cruised to a 3-0 victory over Hannover last weekend. M’gladbach’s impressive victory, and the fact they gave a good account of themselves in their first game against Bayern Munich suggest their odds of victory at 6.0 look way too generous.
But give credit to Sami Hyypia’s Leverkusen team – in their manager’s own image – they do look a tough team to break down this year. Therefore I envisage a fairly tight contest with M’gladbach looking a decent prospect at 4.3 in the DRAW NO BET market.
Summary
Back Chelsea DRAW NO BET @ 2.16 (1 pt)
Back over 2.5 goals between Villarreal and Valladolid @ 2.08 (1 pt)
Back over 2.5 goals between Sampdoria and Juventus @ 2.02 (1 pt)
Back Borussia M’gladbach DRAW NO BET @ 4.3 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 22nd August
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket. His football tips returned an astounding profit of +58.08% last season – after 13 points staked gave a return of 20.55. His best picks were Nigeria to win AFCON 2013 at 10.5 and Shakhtar to qualify from Champions League Group E at 2.9.
You can follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett
Premier League – England
The big three of Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea all started with wins under their new managers and our hopes of a close title race look better than ever. Elsewhere, Tottenham got their campaign off to a good start without wantaway Gareth Bale.
Meanwhile, their North London rivals Arsenal have had a torrid start to their season and after a summer when the club have spent no money, a 3-1 home defeat to Aston Villa understandably provoked supporter unrest. A 3-0 victory away to Fenerbahce in the 1st leg of their Champions League qualifier will have softened that blow somewhat but they will need to build on that with a strong performance against Fulham this weekend.
The highlight of the upcoming weekend’s Premier League action however is undoubtedly Chelsea’s trip to Old Trafford on Monday night where David Moyes will face his first big test as Manchester United manager.
Chelsea on the DRAW NO BET market at 2.16 looks a great option. In 15 previous ties against Manchester United, Mourinho’s teams have only lost on two occasions.
And while this is a completely new Chelsea squad, it does suggest that the Special One knows how to set his team up against the current champions and this will be an ideal time to strike against David Moyes in the early days of his tenure at Old Trafford.
La Liga – Spain
Business as usual in Spain last weekend as Barcelona and Real Madrid opened their campaigns with victory. But that rather simplifies the story. While Barcelona romped home to a 7-0 thrashing of Levante at Camp Nou, Real Madrid were given a stern test from Real Betis at the Santiago Bernabeu with a close 2-1 win sealed late on by debutant Isco.
Elsewhere, last season’s 3rd placed team Atletico Madrid impressed with a 3-1 win in a tricky game away to Sevilla and Athletic Bilbao showed signs of improvement on last season with a 2-1 win away to Valladolid.
The upcoming weekend sees plenty of evenly matched fixtures – except those involving Real and Barcelona. Rayo could prove slightly tougher opponents for Atletico than their odds of 12.5 suggest.
Real Sociedad will fancy their chances in their visit to newly promoted Elche who lost 3-0 on the opening day to Rayo and odds of 2.3 for a Basque victory do look appealing particularly after a mid-week win away to Lyon in the Champions League.
But one that really catches the eye is Villarreal against Valladolid in what looks set to be an open and attacking game. Above evens odds for over 2.5 goals in this fixture look too good to miss and are currently sat at a high 2.08.
The games involving these two sides last weekend saw a total of 8 goals and with the likes of Gio dos Santos, Jonathan and Javi Guerra lining up in this one, we can expect plenty of goals.
Serie A – Italy
New managers at Napoli (8.4), Inter (14) and Roma (32) make this Serie A season a fascinating one, with lots of uncertainties in the upper-half of the table – can Benitez take Napoli to the next level, can Mazzarri unite an Inter in disarray and will Rudi Garcia galvanise Roma into genuine title contenders?
One thing we do know for sure – that Juventus will be there or thereabouts in the title race and will be the team to beat for any side with genuine Scudetto ambitions.
AC Milan (6.4) have been under the radar slightly this season and look a decent bet to challenge for the title – they will be hoping their attractive attacking line with a settled Mario Balotelli and the exciting Stephan El Shaarawy can develop into a potent weapon.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina (15.5) will be many people’s dark horses with the signings of Mario Gomez, Josip Ilicic and Joaqin adding to an already exciting forward line.
Despite the abundance of goalscorers throughout the league, Serie A has a reputation for a lack of goals due to the emphasis placed on defensive strategy rather than attacking flair. But last season saw a total of 1,003 goals in the league at 2.64 goals per game. The Bundesliga (only 18 teams) had a total of 898 goals at exactly the same ratio of goals per game (2.64) and La Liga, without the free-scoring of Barcelona and Real Madrid had only 2.60 goals per game.
This slight misconception about Serie A means odds on over 2.5 goals per game can be attractive.
Last season, games involving Juve contained 95 goals (@2.5/game) and those involving Sampdoria contained 94 goals (@2.47/game).
With the additions of Fernando Llorente and Carlos Tevez at Juventus, odds of 2.02 on over 2.5 goals in their opening game away to Sampdoria look attractive.
Bundesliga – Germany
Over in the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich and Dortmund continued their winning start to the season with victories over Eintracht Frankfurt and Eintracht Braunschweig respectively. Joining them are Bayer Leverkusen, Mainz and Werder Bremen also on six points after their first two games.
The stand out results from the weekend however were Wolfsburg’s 4-0 win over Schalke and Hoffenheim’s 5-1 demolition job away to Rafael Van der Vaart’s Hamburg.
This week’s set of fixtures sees two of those undefeated teams line-up against each other with Dortmund hosting Werder Bremen as well as Bayern Munich taking on Nuremburg who have started their season with two 2-2 draws.
Bayer Leverkusen face a tough home fixture against Borussia Mönchengladbach who cruised to a 3-0 victory over Hannover last weekend. M’gladbach’s impressive victory, and the fact they gave a good account of themselves in their first game against Bayern Munich suggest their odds of victory at 6.0 look way too generous.
But give credit to Sami Hyypia’s Leverkusen team – in their manager’s own image – they do look a tough team to break down this year. Therefore I envisage a fairly tight contest with M’gladbach looking a decent prospect at 4.3 in the DRAW NO BET market.
Summary
Back Chelsea DRAW NO BET @ 2.16 (1 pt)
Back over 2.5 goals between Villarreal and Valladolid @ 2.08 (1 pt)
Back over 2.5 goals between Sampdoria and Juventus @ 2.02 (1 pt)
Back Borussia M’gladbach DRAW NO BET @ 4.3 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 22nd August
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket. His football tips returned an astounding profit of +58.08% last season – after 13 points staked gave a return of 20.55. His best picks were Nigeria to win AFCON 2013 at 10.5 and Shakhtar to qualify from Champions League Group E at 2.9.
You can follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett
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Evan Bartlett's European Football Column - Week #1
16 Aug 13 11:13
With plenty of teams lining up with new star players and next summer featuring a World Cup in Brazil this season promises to be another cracker across Europe. And to add to this, Evan Bartlett will be bringing you a weekly column with a summary of the big four leagues on the continent (England, Spain, Italy and Germany) with the best value selections on the Betfair Exchange.
Premier League - England
Much of the talk in England this summer has been around the return of the Special One at Chelsea, David Moyes succeeding Sir Alex at Manchester United and Manuel Pellegrini’s new look Manchester City. With the big three all sporting new managers it should be an interesting title race.
But undeniably, dominating the headlines this summer has been the tussle between Tottenham Hotspur and Real Madrid with the Spanish club’s attempts to sign the London club’s star man Gareth Bale.
Behind this saga however Tottenham’s manager Andre Villas Boas has operated wisely, strengthening his side with an array of impressive signings.
Roberto Soldado, Nacer Chadli, and Paulinho add to an already strong squad and even if Spurs are to lose Bale they should push all the way for that coveted fourth place in the table.
And that’s the reason this week they are my choice to beat new boys Crystal Palace at 1.86. Despite the game being held away at Selhurst Park I expect this strong line-up to prove too much for Ian Holloway’s men who will have to perform miracles to maintain their Premier League status come this time next year.
La Liga - Spain
Apart from Bale and Madrid, the big talk in Spain has been about the arrival of Neymar at Barcelona. His integration with a star-studded squad and his relationship with the talismanic Lionel Messi will be under the spotlight as the season progresses.
Tata Martino’s Barca start the season as favourites for the title (1.82) closely followed by Real Madrid (2.26) with their new manager Carlo Ancelotti at the helm. But the next best are likely to fall some way short of these two giants of the Spanish game.
Of those, Atletico Madrid look the best bet to replicate last season’s third place and look a tasty 2.68 to win their first game away to Sevilla who have lost the star duo of Alvaro Negredo and Jesus Navas to Manchester City.
Although Atleti have lost their own star player in Radamel Falcao they do possess a strong squad with the likes of Diego Costa and the exciting Oliver Torres. If new signing David Villa can rekindle some form of old then there should be plenty of goals for them this season.
But away fixtures to the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan are always difficult so instead I’m plumping for more than 2.5 goals in this game at a generous 2.02.
Serie A – Italy
It looks as though the decline of Italian domestic football is set to continue despite the ongoing standard set by the national team who performed well at the Confederations Cup again this summer.
The exodus from the Serie A was epitomised by Edinson Cavani’s bumper move to PSG from Napoli and continues a growing trend of the Parisian club poaching the best talent around in Italy.
However it’s not all doom and gloom for the league that was once the pinnacle in Europe – the signings of Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente at Juventus suggest that Scudetto is still an honour that the world’s best aspire to.
And it is Juventus who dominate the title winners market at an eye-wateringly low 1.83 this season as they look to make it three in a row. That price however doesn’t seem all that surprising given the competition they have.
Napoli (8.2) should maintain a top three finish with Rafa Benitez at the helm and despite the loss of Cavani the signings of Gonzalo Higuain, Dries Mertens and Pepe Reina do look to have re-strengthened them somewhat.
Other than Napoli it will be left to the two Milan clubs to chase with AC Milan (6.2) expected to perform slightly better than a transitional Inter (14).
There are no games this weekend so our first matchday selections so we will have to wait until next week.
Bundesliga – Germany
Residing in fourth on this list of Europe’s top 4 leagues is probably an outdated summation for the Bundesliga which got underway last weekend.
Both of last year’s Champions League finalists preside at the top of the outright winners market again this season and many would argue that the Bundesliga has now grown to be the best in Europe.
The arrival of Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich has done nothing to quell this feeling and many see a period of domination arriving for the Bavarians to match that of Barcelona over the last half-decade.
Last season was dominated by Bayern and Dortmund and judging by their impressive victories on the opening weekend there’s no reason to believe this won’t be the case again.
You’ll find that most match odds on these two teams to win will be very short this season and for the most part won’t offer any attractive value to the punter.
Instead, this week I quite like the look of the over/under 2.5 goals market – last weekend saw an astonishing 37 goals in 10 matches and we’ll be in for a great weekend again if that can be matched.
Mainz won their opening encounter 3-2 against Stuttgart with goalkeeper Heinz Muller in particularly sensational form. Unfortunately for him he is lining up behind a leaky looking defence and we can expect plenty of goals in their game against SC Freiburg this weekend who will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 3-1 defeat away to Sami Hyypia’s Bayer Leverkusen.
Odds of 2.1 on over 2.5 goals look very attractive for this encounter at Freiburg’s Mage Solar Stadion.
Summary
Back Tottenham Hotspur to beat Crystal Palace at 1.84 (1 pt).
Back more than 2.5 goals between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid at 2.02 (1 pt)
Back more than 2.5 goals between SC Freiburg and Mainz at 2.1 (1pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 15th August
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket. His football tips returned an astounding profit of +58.08% last season – after 13 points staked gave a return of 20.55. His best picks were Nigeria to win AFCON 2013 at 10.5 and Shakhtar to qualify from Champions League Group E at 2.9.
You can follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett
Premier League - England
Much of the talk in England this summer has been around the return of the Special One at Chelsea, David Moyes succeeding Sir Alex at Manchester United and Manuel Pellegrini’s new look Manchester City. With the big three all sporting new managers it should be an interesting title race.
But undeniably, dominating the headlines this summer has been the tussle between Tottenham Hotspur and Real Madrid with the Spanish club’s attempts to sign the London club’s star man Gareth Bale.
Behind this saga however Tottenham’s manager Andre Villas Boas has operated wisely, strengthening his side with an array of impressive signings.
Roberto Soldado, Nacer Chadli, and Paulinho add to an already strong squad and even if Spurs are to lose Bale they should push all the way for that coveted fourth place in the table.
And that’s the reason this week they are my choice to beat new boys Crystal Palace at 1.86. Despite the game being held away at Selhurst Park I expect this strong line-up to prove too much for Ian Holloway’s men who will have to perform miracles to maintain their Premier League status come this time next year.
La Liga - Spain
Apart from Bale and Madrid, the big talk in Spain has been about the arrival of Neymar at Barcelona. His integration with a star-studded squad and his relationship with the talismanic Lionel Messi will be under the spotlight as the season progresses.
Tata Martino’s Barca start the season as favourites for the title (1.82) closely followed by Real Madrid (2.26) with their new manager Carlo Ancelotti at the helm. But the next best are likely to fall some way short of these two giants of the Spanish game.
Of those, Atletico Madrid look the best bet to replicate last season’s third place and look a tasty 2.68 to win their first game away to Sevilla who have lost the star duo of Alvaro Negredo and Jesus Navas to Manchester City.
Although Atleti have lost their own star player in Radamel Falcao they do possess a strong squad with the likes of Diego Costa and the exciting Oliver Torres. If new signing David Villa can rekindle some form of old then there should be plenty of goals for them this season.
But away fixtures to the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan are always difficult so instead I’m plumping for more than 2.5 goals in this game at a generous 2.02.
Serie A – Italy
It looks as though the decline of Italian domestic football is set to continue despite the ongoing standard set by the national team who performed well at the Confederations Cup again this summer.
The exodus from the Serie A was epitomised by Edinson Cavani’s bumper move to PSG from Napoli and continues a growing trend of the Parisian club poaching the best talent around in Italy.
However it’s not all doom and gloom for the league that was once the pinnacle in Europe – the signings of Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente at Juventus suggest that Scudetto is still an honour that the world’s best aspire to.
And it is Juventus who dominate the title winners market at an eye-wateringly low 1.83 this season as they look to make it three in a row. That price however doesn’t seem all that surprising given the competition they have.
Napoli (8.2) should maintain a top three finish with Rafa Benitez at the helm and despite the loss of Cavani the signings of Gonzalo Higuain, Dries Mertens and Pepe Reina do look to have re-strengthened them somewhat.
Other than Napoli it will be left to the two Milan clubs to chase with AC Milan (6.2) expected to perform slightly better than a transitional Inter (14).
There are no games this weekend so our first matchday selections so we will have to wait until next week.
Bundesliga – Germany
Residing in fourth on this list of Europe’s top 4 leagues is probably an outdated summation for the Bundesliga which got underway last weekend.
Both of last year’s Champions League finalists preside at the top of the outright winners market again this season and many would argue that the Bundesliga has now grown to be the best in Europe.
The arrival of Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich has done nothing to quell this feeling and many see a period of domination arriving for the Bavarians to match that of Barcelona over the last half-decade.
Last season was dominated by Bayern and Dortmund and judging by their impressive victories on the opening weekend there’s no reason to believe this won’t be the case again.
You’ll find that most match odds on these two teams to win will be very short this season and for the most part won’t offer any attractive value to the punter.
Instead, this week I quite like the look of the over/under 2.5 goals market – last weekend saw an astonishing 37 goals in 10 matches and we’ll be in for a great weekend again if that can be matched.
Mainz won their opening encounter 3-2 against Stuttgart with goalkeeper Heinz Muller in particularly sensational form. Unfortunately for him he is lining up behind a leaky looking defence and we can expect plenty of goals in their game against SC Freiburg this weekend who will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 3-1 defeat away to Sami Hyypia’s Bayer Leverkusen.
Odds of 2.1 on over 2.5 goals look very attractive for this encounter at Freiburg’s Mage Solar Stadion.
Summary
Back Tottenham Hotspur to beat Crystal Palace at 1.84 (1 pt).
Back more than 2.5 goals between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid at 2.02 (1 pt)
Back more than 2.5 goals between SC Freiburg and Mainz at 2.1 (1pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 15th August
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket. His football tips returned an astounding profit of +58.08% last season – after 13 points staked gave a return of 20.55. His best picks were Nigeria to win AFCON 2013 at 10.5 and Shakhtar to qualify from Champions League Group E at 2.9.
You can follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett
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In the final part of his Premier League Betting Preview Evan Bartlett takes a look at those teams not quite pushing for Europe and those not scrapping for survival. But which one can mask their mid-table obscurity with the optimistic claim of having top half security?
Usually a top half finish is a coveted position for teams in the Premier League – perceived stability and a mark of transition from relegation strugglers to European contenders allows owners to push on in the transfer market and secure a better future for their club.
But last season was so tight in this market with just 7 points between 9th and 17th place that those teams just scraping into the top half were just as likely to be swamped in a relegation battle as they were to be pushing the bigger boys for a European berth and this season should be no different.
Of those that finished just inside the top 10 last year it looks likely that Swansea (2.54) could struggle in a similar way that Newcastle did last season with Europa League commitments stretching their relatively small squad. Michael Laudrup oversaw a seamless transition after Brendan Rodgers’ departure but the Dane should be happy to see his team secure another season of Premier League football while earning some extra income from European competition.
West Brom (2.86) who did so well to finish 8th last year will do very well to replicate that performance especially without star man Romelu Lukaku who has returned to his parent club Chelsea. Their poor run of form after Christmas last year is enough to put me off and although the signing of Nicolas Anelka looks good on paper we must remember that the Frenchman is now 34 and has spent a long time away from top class domestic football.
West Ham (2.84) look promising this season, without European commitments and with no major transfer departures in their squad will look to build on last season’s strong result. Sam Allardyce is a manager with plenty of calibre at this level and while not playing the most attractive football his teams do tend to grind out results.
Big Sam has a record of over-achieving – in his time at Bolton and Blackburn he enjoyed five finishes in the top half of the Premier League table and there’s no reason he won’t do the same again with West Ham.
With the permanent acquisition of Andy Carroll as well as the arrival of his old Liverpool team mate Stewart Downing, the Hammers have set out their stall as a direct and physical outfit in the typical Allardyce style. The likes of Joe Cole, Matt Jarvis and Downing will provide Carroll with plenty of ammunition and if the big Geordie can stay fit then there’s no reason he can’t shoot West Ham to a top 10 finish again.
Of the others, Southampton (2.5) can only improve on last season’s performance. The signing of Victor Wanyama from Celtic is a major coup for the South Coast club and with manager Mauricio Pochettino having a full pre-season to impart his systems on the team they should challenge the likes of West Ham all the way.
The difficulty in this market is exemplified by the fact that we haven’t even mentioned the likes of Newcastle (2.56), Aston Villa (2.82) and Fulham (3.4) – all well-established Premier League sides whose fans usually expect to be pushing for Europe. But Newcastle’s boardroom problems, Villa’s over-reliance on Christian Benteke and Fulham’s lack of pizzazz under Martin Jol are all enough to put me off.
Summary - Back West Ham to finish in the top 10 at 2.84 (1 point)
Premier League betting preview – Part One – Race for the title: http://goo.gl/VyEfCz
Premier League betting preview – Part Two – Scrap for survival: http://goo.gl/eex6Jq
You can follow Evan on twitter @ev_bartlett
NB - Odds correct as of 13th August 2013
Usually a top half finish is a coveted position for teams in the Premier League – perceived stability and a mark of transition from relegation strugglers to European contenders allows owners to push on in the transfer market and secure a better future for their club.
But last season was so tight in this market with just 7 points between 9th and 17th place that those teams just scraping into the top half were just as likely to be swamped in a relegation battle as they were to be pushing the bigger boys for a European berth and this season should be no different.
Of those that finished just inside the top 10 last year it looks likely that Swansea (2.54) could struggle in a similar way that Newcastle did last season with Europa League commitments stretching their relatively small squad. Michael Laudrup oversaw a seamless transition after Brendan Rodgers’ departure but the Dane should be happy to see his team secure another season of Premier League football while earning some extra income from European competition.
West Brom (2.86) who did so well to finish 8th last year will do very well to replicate that performance especially without star man Romelu Lukaku who has returned to his parent club Chelsea. Their poor run of form after Christmas last year is enough to put me off and although the signing of Nicolas Anelka looks good on paper we must remember that the Frenchman is now 34 and has spent a long time away from top class domestic football.
West Ham (2.84) look promising this season, without European commitments and with no major transfer departures in their squad will look to build on last season’s strong result. Sam Allardyce is a manager with plenty of calibre at this level and while not playing the most attractive football his teams do tend to grind out results.
Big Sam has a record of over-achieving – in his time at Bolton and Blackburn he enjoyed five finishes in the top half of the Premier League table and there’s no reason he won’t do the same again with West Ham.
With the permanent acquisition of Andy Carroll as well as the arrival of his old Liverpool team mate Stewart Downing, the Hammers have set out their stall as a direct and physical outfit in the typical Allardyce style. The likes of Joe Cole, Matt Jarvis and Downing will provide Carroll with plenty of ammunition and if the big Geordie can stay fit then there’s no reason he can’t shoot West Ham to a top 10 finish again.
Of the others, Southampton (2.5) can only improve on last season’s performance. The signing of Victor Wanyama from Celtic is a major coup for the South Coast club and with manager Mauricio Pochettino having a full pre-season to impart his systems on the team they should challenge the likes of West Ham all the way.
The difficulty in this market is exemplified by the fact that we haven’t even mentioned the likes of Newcastle (2.56), Aston Villa (2.82) and Fulham (3.4) – all well-established Premier League sides whose fans usually expect to be pushing for Europe. But Newcastle’s boardroom problems, Villa’s over-reliance on Christian Benteke and Fulham’s lack of pizzazz under Martin Jol are all enough to put me off.
Summary - Back West Ham to finish in the top 10 at 2.84 (1 point)
Premier League betting preview – Part One – Race for the title: http://goo.gl/VyEfCz
Premier League betting preview – Part Two – Scrap for survival: http://goo.gl/eex6Jq
You can follow Evan on twitter @ev_bartlett
NB - Odds correct as of 13th August 2013
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In part two of his Barclays Premier League betting preview Evan Bartlett takes a look at the likely contenders for relegation and is backing one or two of the newly promoted sides to stick around until next year.
Making the step up in class to the Premier League is always a difficult task for the newly promoted clubs and it should therefore come as no surprise that Crystal Palace (1.56), Hull City (1.72) and Cardiff City (2.78) are the three favoured teams to go down.
The value in the market however can be found in the fact that you have to go all the way back to the 1997/98 season to find an instance when all three newly promoted teams were relegated in their first season back in the Premier League.
That year saw Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace go down, and while you have to say Palace, alongside Hull, look most likely to go down again, they aren’t particularly attractive looking bets given their less than even money odds and the fact that they have experienced managers in the shape of Ian Holloway and Steve Bruce respectively who will be fighting tooth and nail to achieve that coveted 17th spot in the league.
Cardiff are a team that have been knocking on the door of the Premier League for a number of seasons now and coming up as champions you have to feel now is their time to establish themselves at the top table. In Malky Mackay they have a young manager looking to establish his credentials in the top flight and there's just a sense at the club that things will only get better from here.
With Paolo Di Canio at the helm, Sunderland’s fortunes could go one of two ways – either the enigmatic Italian will galvanise the Mackems into a backs-to-the-wall, no-one-likes-us, top-half outfit or they will plummet into in-fighting, anarchic, relegation struggling mediocrity.
Despite a whole host of transfer activity over the summer, the fact is that Sunderland suffered a dismal run of form at the end of last season with just 11 points from their last 15 games. Granted, a lot of that must be put down to the Martin O’Neill regime, but changing a losing mentality at a club is no mean feat.
The Italian has tried to mend this with a number of summer signings, which is a gamble in itself if those players – mostly from other European leagues – fail to adapt quickly to the Premier League.
And with Di Canio’s temperament so likely to alienate the dressing-room if things go against him, the odds of 5.9 for them to go down look very generous indeed.
Summary - Back Sunderland to be relegated at 5.9 (1 point)
Premier League betting preview - Part One - Race for the title: http://goo.gl/VyEfCz
Premier League betting preview – Part Three – Top half security: http://goo.gl/mahBWC
You can follow Evan on twitter @ev_bartlett
NB - Odds correct as of 8th August
Making the step up in class to the Premier League is always a difficult task for the newly promoted clubs and it should therefore come as no surprise that Crystal Palace (1.56), Hull City (1.72) and Cardiff City (2.78) are the three favoured teams to go down.
The value in the market however can be found in the fact that you have to go all the way back to the 1997/98 season to find an instance when all three newly promoted teams were relegated in their first season back in the Premier League.
That year saw Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace go down, and while you have to say Palace, alongside Hull, look most likely to go down again, they aren’t particularly attractive looking bets given their less than even money odds and the fact that they have experienced managers in the shape of Ian Holloway and Steve Bruce respectively who will be fighting tooth and nail to achieve that coveted 17th spot in the league.
Cardiff are a team that have been knocking on the door of the Premier League for a number of seasons now and coming up as champions you have to feel now is their time to establish themselves at the top table. In Malky Mackay they have a young manager looking to establish his credentials in the top flight and there's just a sense at the club that things will only get better from here.
With Paolo Di Canio at the helm, Sunderland’s fortunes could go one of two ways – either the enigmatic Italian will galvanise the Mackems into a backs-to-the-wall, no-one-likes-us, top-half outfit or they will plummet into in-fighting, anarchic, relegation struggling mediocrity.
Despite a whole host of transfer activity over the summer, the fact is that Sunderland suffered a dismal run of form at the end of last season with just 11 points from their last 15 games. Granted, a lot of that must be put down to the Martin O’Neill regime, but changing a losing mentality at a club is no mean feat.
The Italian has tried to mend this with a number of summer signings, which is a gamble in itself if those players – mostly from other European leagues – fail to adapt quickly to the Premier League.
And with Di Canio’s temperament so likely to alienate the dressing-room if things go against him, the odds of 5.9 for them to go down look very generous indeed.
Summary - Back Sunderland to be relegated at 5.9 (1 point)
Premier League betting preview - Part One - Race for the title: http://goo.gl/VyEfCz
Premier League betting preview – Part Three – Top half security: http://goo.gl/mahBWC
You can follow Evan on twitter @ev_bartlett
NB - Odds correct as of 8th August
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After a summer of managerial changes, transfers in and out and a whole host of other will-he-won't-he sagas, it’s finally time to get down to business. With Saturday 18th August seeing the Barclays Premier League get underway, Evan Bartlett takes a look at the runners and riders for the big prize in part one of his season preview.
The race for this season’s title is set to be one of the tightest in recent history with new managers at each of the division’s top three favoured clubs – Manchester United (3.8), Manchester City (3.3) and Chelsea (3.35) – followed closely by the team with the longest serving manager in Arsenal (12) as well as the ever-improving Tottenham Hotspur (36) and Liverpool (36) not far behind.
The summer thus far has been one of frustration for Manchester United's new man David Moyes - a failure to sign a much-needed central midfielder in either Cesc Fabregas or Marouane Fellaini has left a big hole in their first XI.
The ongoing transfer saga from wantaway star man Wayne Rooney will continue to cast doubts over their transition from Ferguson's dynasty in what could yet prove to be a tumultuous period in the club's glittered history.
While they have the league’s top marksman in Robin Van Persie, and a more settled Shinji Kagawa, this looks to be a rebuilding season for the club. With Moyes coming to terms of juggling a large squad full of star players as well as the demands of Champions League competition - the first run of bad form is likely to call into question the Scotsman’s suitability for the role and therefore the Red Devils are well worth avoiding.
The return of ‘the Special One’ at Stamford Bridge has brought renewed vigour to Chelsea and in Jose Mourinho they have the only manager of the top three who has experience of winning the Premier League title.
The additions of Andre Schurrle and Marco van Ginkel look to be good investments for the future but the current squad looks un-Mourinho-esque in its make-up – the likes of Mata, Hazard and Oscar the polar opposite of the Portuguese’s previous spine of Lampard, Drogba and Essien.
It also remains to be seen who will lead Chelsea’s line this season, will Mourinho get the best out of Torres, will Ba improve on his first 6 months at the club or will the young Romelu Lukaku fulfil all that promise he showed when on-loan at West Brom last season?
That question mark leaves the biggest shadow over Chelsea’s chances this season and for that reason are also worth avoiding.
Of the top three, the most complete squad this season is Manchester City’s. So dazzling in their maiden Premier League triumph in 2012, they struggled last year with stodgy tactics from the outgoing Roberto Mancini as well as a run of poor form and injuries to their star players.
This summer’s purchases, building upon the solid defensive system they had in place under Mancini, have added much-needed flair and attacking nous – the likes of Jesus Navas, Fernandinho, Alvaro Negredo and Stevan Jovetic look to be astute signings from new manager Manuel Pellegrini and all in all there is no weak area in the City squad this season.
Pellegrini’s one major issue will be managing such a big squad full of huge egos, a task made slightly easier by the departures of the troublesome duo Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli, but nonetheless still an area of concern given the Chilean’s failure at Real Madrid in 2009/10 with a similarly star-studded team.
City will be the hardest to break down this season and can expect an envious home record at the Etihad, if their new attacking signings can match that at the other end of the field then they should be the team to beat for the title.
Of the others, I can only see Arsenal - without any major signings yet again - Tottenham - even if they manage to hold on to star man Gareth Bale - and Liverpool - even if they manage to hold on to star man Luis Suarez - being also-rans this season. Their squads lack the depth and star-quality of the top three and any of them will do well to break the triumvirate at the top of the table. Although we can expect the race for fourth-spot to be as exciting as ever.
Summary - Back Manchester City to win the title at 3.3 (2 points).
Premier League betting preview - Part Two - Scrap for Survival: http://goo.gl/eex6Jq
Premier League betting preview – Part Three – Top half security: http://goo.gl/mahBWC
You can follow Evan on twitter @ev_bartlett
NB - Odds correct as of 8th August
The race for this season’s title is set to be one of the tightest in recent history with new managers at each of the division’s top three favoured clubs – Manchester United (3.8), Manchester City (3.3) and Chelsea (3.35) – followed closely by the team with the longest serving manager in Arsenal (12) as well as the ever-improving Tottenham Hotspur (36) and Liverpool (36) not far behind.
The summer thus far has been one of frustration for Manchester United's new man David Moyes - a failure to sign a much-needed central midfielder in either Cesc Fabregas or Marouane Fellaini has left a big hole in their first XI.
The ongoing transfer saga from wantaway star man Wayne Rooney will continue to cast doubts over their transition from Ferguson's dynasty in what could yet prove to be a tumultuous period in the club's glittered history.
While they have the league’s top marksman in Robin Van Persie, and a more settled Shinji Kagawa, this looks to be a rebuilding season for the club. With Moyes coming to terms of juggling a large squad full of star players as well as the demands of Champions League competition - the first run of bad form is likely to call into question the Scotsman’s suitability for the role and therefore the Red Devils are well worth avoiding.
The return of ‘the Special One’ at Stamford Bridge has brought renewed vigour to Chelsea and in Jose Mourinho they have the only manager of the top three who has experience of winning the Premier League title.
The additions of Andre Schurrle and Marco van Ginkel look to be good investments for the future but the current squad looks un-Mourinho-esque in its make-up – the likes of Mata, Hazard and Oscar the polar opposite of the Portuguese’s previous spine of Lampard, Drogba and Essien.
It also remains to be seen who will lead Chelsea’s line this season, will Mourinho get the best out of Torres, will Ba improve on his first 6 months at the club or will the young Romelu Lukaku fulfil all that promise he showed when on-loan at West Brom last season?
That question mark leaves the biggest shadow over Chelsea’s chances this season and for that reason are also worth avoiding.
Of the top three, the most complete squad this season is Manchester City’s. So dazzling in their maiden Premier League triumph in 2012, they struggled last year with stodgy tactics from the outgoing Roberto Mancini as well as a run of poor form and injuries to their star players.
This summer’s purchases, building upon the solid defensive system they had in place under Mancini, have added much-needed flair and attacking nous – the likes of Jesus Navas, Fernandinho, Alvaro Negredo and Stevan Jovetic look to be astute signings from new manager Manuel Pellegrini and all in all there is no weak area in the City squad this season.
Pellegrini’s one major issue will be managing such a big squad full of huge egos, a task made slightly easier by the departures of the troublesome duo Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli, but nonetheless still an area of concern given the Chilean’s failure at Real Madrid in 2009/10 with a similarly star-studded team.
City will be the hardest to break down this season and can expect an envious home record at the Etihad, if their new attacking signings can match that at the other end of the field then they should be the team to beat for the title.
Of the others, I can only see Arsenal - without any major signings yet again - Tottenham - even if they manage to hold on to star man Gareth Bale - and Liverpool - even if they manage to hold on to star man Luis Suarez - being also-rans this season. Their squads lack the depth and star-quality of the top three and any of them will do well to break the triumvirate at the top of the table. Although we can expect the race for fourth-spot to be as exciting as ever.
Summary - Back Manchester City to win the title at 3.3 (2 points).
Premier League betting preview - Part Two - Scrap for Survival: http://goo.gl/eex6Jq
Premier League betting preview – Part Three – Top half security: http://goo.gl/mahBWC
You can follow Evan on twitter @ev_bartlett
NB - Odds correct as of 8th August
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