dunlaying

A quick look at some provisionals .
Opera Ballo was impressive and from little evidence I have him on +11+ . In the next race on that card I have Quai De Bethune on the same perch . The last named supports my claim that Cosmic Year(+2+) is top class and his rating is independent of his third to the Juddmonte star .
Noble Champion I have on +3 but , sadly , that form lacks any support at all . If he gets an entry he could still be of interest .EDIT there is now some support for the high figure
Hanting improved at the back end and is on a very shaky +6 . I went to check that this Italian youngster was a colt and true to form I could not find it . Trained by Botti .
All figure are wrt Henri Matisse 0

I missed the Hannon horse off . Stem(IRE) +6+ , bolted in at Newbury on heavy ground . The form is tenuous but this colt is entered at The Curragh in both Guineas and Derby .
EDIT : Opera Ballo goes to +7+ and Quai De Bethune remains on +11+ for the time being . The latter might not have run his race .

Taking results from the desert and all weather I am getting the impression that we did not see the best 2 y o colts last season. 

Obviously the first half dozen of the market leaders have chances but does anything else stand out ?

Fakir D'Oudairies could be a long term plot and that applies to Conflated .
Pinkerton might be a lively outsider , a likeable type .
But one horse stands out like a sore thumb , Hyland , from the Henderson yard . If my reading is correct he could represent The Jukebox Man with 10 .6 .
My guess for the cut off is around our old friend Roi Mage ie 56 .
.............
Sea Hector 0
Dolayli 0
Stormy Ocean +1
Mozart +1
Assassi +2
First Conquest +4
Cairo +4
Highbank +5
Hans Anderson +6
This is a favourite to take on .
..........
Ile Atlantique 0
Firefox +5
Touch Me Not +14
the figure for Majborough is very poor but clearly he is well thought of .
........
Galopin Des Champs 0
I Am Maximus +4
Conflated +5??
Hewick +6
Fact To File +7
Embassy Gardens +8+

Shannon Royale 0
Spanish Harlem +4
Macs Charm +10
Velvet Elvis +11
Stormy Judge +11
Glengouly +11
....
Mysterious Knight 0
Danyah 0
Make Me King +3
Native Approach +5
........
Romantic Warrior 0
Poker Face +3
Measured Time +3
Holloway Boy +3
Ottoman Fleet +8
..?..........
L'homme Presse 0
Delta Work +3
Gentlemansgame +4
Stage Star +5
Chantry House +5+

The favourite looks far too short as he is not certain to get home .

Ile Atlantique 0
The Jukebox Man +1
Ballyburn +2+
Croke Park +5
Better Days Ahead +5
Springwell Bay +6+
Gorgeous Tom +6
Peaky Boy +7
Impaired Et Passe +7
Dancing City +7

Early days but it has the makings of a decent race .
?.?........
Galopin Des Champs 0
Ahoy Senor +3?
Gerri Colombe +5
Conflated +5??
Hewick +6?
Banbridge +6
The Real Whacker +7
Jungle Boogie +7
Fact To File +7+
Il Est Francais +8
Gentlemansgame +8
Embassy Gardens +8+
Corbett Cross +8
......
Jonbon 0
El Fabiolo +1
Garlic Warrior +2
Energumene +6+
Banbridge +6
Jungle Boogie +7
Edwardstone +7
Il Est Francais +8
Matata +10+

To rate The Clarence House I put Jonbon on his previous best .
Matata I held back on because he might have got away with it at Windsor . However , I was impressed by him .


An apprentice worth his claim is Warren Fentiman .

Juggling the default I have arrived at these figures . I draw no conclusion other than it is a race to watch rather than gamble on .



Energumene.  0.   +10    +6
Jonbon.     +3.    0.    +3
Edwardstone +7    +4.    0
Boothill.  +10.   +7    +6

From left to right are figures drawn with default at 2year , 1 year and 6 months .

The Edwardstone top figure is handicap form . A clue to its worth could be given by Matator in an earlier race .
I do not believe that Jonbon did any more when beating Quilixios than he did first time back .
........?.......
Mr Vango 0
Richmond Lake +4
Trelawne +13
Iwilldoit +13
.........
Flegmatik 0
Terrestial +7
Hitman +7
Latenightpass +10

Romantic Style 0
Choisya +4
Ziggys Dream +4
Ultima +5
Easy with me +5

The favourite is too short at 1/3 . She has been off for a while and 4lb equates to 2 lengths .

Noble Dynasty 0
Poker Face 0
Dolayli +3
Ottoman Fleet +5


.............
Think before you bet in the Veteran ,
Fortescue 0
Empire Steel +6
Remastered +8
Sam Brown +9
Eldorado Allen +9
Smarty  Wild +11
Cloudy Glen +15
Copperhead +16

Copperhead is value to lay .
Empire Steel form is at Kelso .
Remastered has trouble getting round .
Sam Brown looks reluctant these days .
Eldorado Allen has been unreliable .
Chambord needs heavy ground .
Now if you go back far enough you find Smarty Wild on 0 , the equal of the frustrating Fortescue .

The figure I arrive at for Sir Gino is equal to that of Banbridge in The King George . Ballyburn was conceding wfa and wfa for older horses is tricky to say the least . Don't lose any sleep over that performance .
Garlic Warrior looks to have run 14 below his best but it was his seasonal debut and I have been told that he had had a hold up in prep .
Lossiemouth was a most unhappy mare from start to finish and must have been wrong . Put a line through that race .

Hyland 0
The Jukebox Man +10+
Welcome To Cartries +11+
Masaccio +12
White Rhino +12

Remember the pair below Hyland should come forward for their seasonal debuts .
..........
Galia Des Liteaux 0
Amateur +3
Iwilldoit +5 Pritchard is worth his claim if you want to adjust
Your Own Story +6
Iron Bridge +7
The Newest One +8
Atlanta Brave +8

Bravemansgame 0
Spillane Tower +2+ he should come on for his first run back .
ENVOI Allen +2
The Real Whacker +3
L'homme Presse +4
Corbett Cross +4
Banbridge +5
Grey Dawning +10+
Il Est Francais +12+

God knows what is going to run .
Bravemansgame might be overpriced as I am not certain that he is a has been . Scratch races of more than 3 miles from his form and he is in with a great chance as he looks likely to get his ground . At Haydock he looked unhappy and he doesn't get that trip ; at Wetherby his trajectory was wrong and the Ditcheat runners were all in need of a run . Arguably unlucky in this last year and before that a good second to Fastorslow .
The obvious lay is Il Est Francais . Can you think of a horse that has won after bleeding in 2 of his last 3 outings ? I expect GED could but I can not . Then there is his form which is flaky . Hermes Allen did not have time to advertise the Kauto Star form but looked well held when he had his fatal fall . The third horse at Kempton has done nothing noteworthy since .
............
Galopin Des Champs 0
I Am Maximus +4
Fact To File +4+ should come forward
Conflated +5?
Gentlemansgame +8
Grangeclare West +10
Heart Wood +16+
Micellar Crooner +21
Iknowthewayourthinking +24

I have not looked at today's results but the Mullins horses do not seem to be in the best of form and Spillane's Tower did nothing for the John Durkan form .


Merry Xmas