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happyhibee
01 Jan 14 11:52
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 33,262 | Blogger: happyhibee's blog
Happy New Year to one and all,

We finally reach the conclusion of a really enjoyable tournament and tonight will see the crowning of a new champion. Will it be the young pretender or the veteran? The flash player or Mr Steady? I'm sure by 10pm all questions will be answered and may the best man win.

Michael Van Gerwen v Peter Wright:

Tourney Stats:
MVG:
Average: 98.8
100's: 143
140's: 74
180's: 36
Finishing: 45%

Wright:
Average: 99.4
100's: 231
140's: 140
180's: 23
Finishing: 43%

Semi Finals:

MVG bt Adrian Lewis 6-0
Ave: 103.02
180's: 6
CO%: 58%
HC: 154
Legs played: 25

Wright bt Simon Whitlock 6-2
Ave: 100.24
180's: 5
CO%: 60%
HC: 110
Legs played: 33

MVG goes into the match as an overwhelming favourite and you can probably argue he's a little bit short. Based on the tourney stats there's nothing between them on scoring or finishing and while it's clear at his best he has more gears he also probably has more dips. I'm not arguing he should be favourite but 1/4 looks a tad short to me. I think personally that Wright has been the best player in the tournament as he's been ultra consistent, finished well and also taken out ballsy finishes when needed.  Fancy a couple of bets here as I don't think Wright will get steam rollered and I think there will be plenty of chances at high checks. Fingers crossed I don't call it completely wrong!

Recommendation: 1pt win Peter Wright +3.5 sets @ 5/6 (General) & 1pt win over 145.5 HC @ 5/6 (Laddies)

Summary: As ever it's been a truly enjoyable and at times hilarious 2 1/2 weeks on here. Punting wise I've lost more than I've won but such is life and I'm a big boy and take it on the chin. From a purely heart over head moment I really hope Wright wins tonight for a couple of reasons. Firstly I think this is his one chance whereas MVG will have plenty of more chances to win world titles. A bit like the year Painter got beat in the final I think if Wright doesn't do it this year it will never happen for him. Secondly a lot of the good guys on here are on him at fancy odds so hoping they all get the chance to get a right few quid out of tonight even if it's as a result of him trading short.

Be lucky folks and lets hope tonight produces a classic
HH  Happy

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Replies: 888
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 12:18
By:
scarecrow
When: 01 Jan 14 12:39
i think a lot depends on how this match starts.hopefully wright will get of to a good start.mvg in interviews since his defeat of lewis gives the impression that its his to lose.as you say hh there is not a lot between them stat wise and if he under estimates wright he may regret it,if wright plays as he has done all tourny,no reason to think he wont,unless mvg batters him early.gl trying to recoup a bit bud,i am also behind for the first time ever at the darts.
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 12:45
I think thats spot on mate if he starts well its a game. If he loses first 2 sets it's a long way back as MVG could ride the momentum
By:
Buell Mule
When: 01 Jan 14 13:18
We'll I've turned a small profit backing the underdog so far... Won't be changing that back Wright outright and at +3.5. If he can remain focused he's got a shout, especially as I feel MVG is capable of blowing hot n cold and going into meltdown a bit. Looking forward to it and thanks to HH and others for their informed opinions and stats... GLA and enjoy.
By:
Nilsson Schmilsson
When: 01 Jan 14 13:19
has kjp backed wright into fav yet Cool
By:
olddesperado
When: 01 Jan 14 13:26
i wouldnt necessarly agree about that, wright plods along no matter with his 98-102 average and mvg can nod off when ahead so i wouldnt be afraid of backing wright at decent prices when a set or two down.
Its mvgs to lose and if things dont go 100& will he start to fell it
By:
Lori
When: 01 Jan 14 15:43
Thanks for your writeups as always HH this tourney.  I swear they get better each time you do them.

I'm aware it's been a poor tourney for you results wise, but that's possible over what is still quite a small sample and I'm sure all the regulars will agree your recommendations have been invaluable over the years.

Tonight only marks about the halfway point, so there's plenty of time for it all to revert to the mean yet and I expect it to do so.
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 16:01
Ha ha ha cheers Lori but will be little action from me on the BDO as I'm virtually down to the felt for a while
By:
Lori
When: 01 Jan 14 16:05
Sorry to hear that mate. It's good to know you're not chasing it though and you've handled the downturn admirably.
By:
laynplay
When: 01 Jan 14 16:05
Well done with the write ups hh...your views have been very close to my own...unfortunately it has been a poor one financially for me...Really liked Lewis at 2nd fav against mvg as he is at his best against quick throwers but as we all know he simply didn't turn up with his doubling head on..could, perhaps should have been 2-2 then its a different and longer game...had an offer in for wright plus 3.5 sets for the last 2 days and managed to get 1.95 on average....I think wrights more deliberate pace won't help mvg and wrights average would be a point or 2 better than mvg for their last 3 rounds if he didn't have those back to back games so quickly...you have to be impressed by wrights doubling and general demeanor on the oche ( sorry, HOCKEY Rod )if Wright is no worse than 2-1 down I will be confident of collecting...anything doing for the bdo or having a well earned rest?
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 16:07
Last 2-3 months have been horrendous mate only so many losses you can endure. Best to take a break for a while and then see where I sit. Just seems I'm making decent bets but getting no rewards which starts to get you down at times. Invariably it then leads to making bad bets
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 16:08
Cheers Lay I aint had many bets I regret this tourney just sometimes circumstances have gone against me. Sods law the fairly decent bets I've had have all gone west too
By:
Lori
When: 01 Jan 14 16:12
I've been like that on the NFL this year. There's a tipping comp where I regularly come top five every year. This year I'm waiting on the final result but I either came last or next to last - and I back quite a few of my tips in that comp (and I always back any tips I put on forums).

You're definitely a winner at this sport in the long term - do you have a compilation of your forum picks listed anywhere - if so I'd be happy to stick some analsyis into it and work out if there's anything you can improve on stakingwise and check to see if there's any aspects your stronger on than you think.
By:
Lori
When: 01 Jan 14 16:13
*you're
By:
loserschaselosers
When: 01 Jan 14 16:13
sorry to hear that HH. respect your opinion and love your write ups. as my name suggests, I'm all in favour of taking a break if it's not working, but if you continue to be disciplined and to do your analysis you should come out ahead in the long run. good luck. (coz you always need a heap of that as well!)
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 16:17
Nah mate they're just on the threads. Even a couple of feel bets I've had have just gone the wrong way in running but thats gambling.

No point in bitching and moaning about things get times where you can't do a thing wrong and others where every result goes against you. Quiet few weeks anyway after tonight so might be for the best Happy
By:
the silverback
When: 01 Jan 14 16:18
Top work this year as usual HH despite the disappointing run. I'll probably give the forum a miss once we're underway as can't afford to get distracted although I half fear an MVG train. That said, I've also backed the +3.5

I think there's some value too on the under 21.5
By:
Ravage Again
When: 01 Jan 14 16:19
I ain't a big punter on the darts but do enjoy reading your threads HH, the betting is so swingy though

I like laying the shorties, missed laying wade at 1-8, would have been gutted him pulling it to 4-3

Though I could not believe that numptie pipe was a 1-5 shot and he made the tournie for me

Backed MVG, greened up now, but decided to chuck abit more on wright and see what happens
By:
the silverback
When: 01 Jan 14 16:19
Christ, it's 22.5 not 21.5

That's a huge price.
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 16:21
Under the maxes? MVG would have to hit 17 on his own to clear that I'd say Silver

Not the end of the world it's only cash. Plenty people worse off than me and I'll bounce back Happy

Plus if wright wins tonight I've at least got 4 quid on him at 120 Cool
By:
ZEALOT
When: 01 Jan 14 16:22
thaat pic of him in 2015 had me in fuikin stitches ExcitedLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
the silverback
When: 01 Jan 14 16:23
It's quite difficult to price up the 180s with the limited stats on Wright's fat darts but it's definitely a bet of some sort, maybe not as huge as i suggested.
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 16:25
20 in the tourney with them and probably averaging 1 every 5.5/6 legs? I couldn't have him for more than 6 or 7 if this goes 10 or 11 sets
By:
the silverback
When: 01 Jan 14 16:29
I think that's probably a fair assessment HH, similar to what I've gone for.

What price he reverts back to old darts?
By:
happyhibee
When: 01 Jan 14 16:29
Long odds I'd say he has been terrific since he switched
By:
maleuk01.
When: 01 Jan 14 16:31
5/4 van gerwin, to win, most 180's and highest checkout.
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 01 Jan 14 16:43
Wright +3.5 sets is my bet too, and a 5er on 7-0 mvg 350-1. If he can beat lewis 6-0 maybe he can do this too
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 01 Jan 14 16:44
sorry never mind that 350/1 is for wright 7-0
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 01 Jan 14 16:45
7-0 mvg is 10/1 LaughLaughLaugh
By:
Ravage Again
When: 01 Jan 14 16:58
Based on your 180 stats before semis HH

Wright is 0.16 180 per leg
MVG is 0.33 180 per leg

Total 0.49 per leg

If we said 7-5 in sets and an average of 4 legs per set

That's 48 * 0.49 = 23.5 180

So looks about right though not sure if the average 4 legs per set assumption is correct?
By:
Biscuit1979
When: 01 Jan 14 17:16
Tourney Stats:
MVG:
Average: 98.8
100's: 143
140's: 74

180's: 36
Finishing: 45%

Wright:
Average: 99.4
100's: 231
140's: 140

180's: 23
Finishing: 43%




Those ton and 140 stats are amazing from Wright. Although he's obviously played a lot more legs.
By:
Eldrick
When: 01 Jan 14 17:16
~4 legs per set is prob ok, maybe a tiny bit low

~12 sets is way too high, max it can make up is 13 and over 10.5 sets is odds against with the books
By:
Hamsterdam
When: 01 Jan 14 17:29
Got a feeling it will be a lot closer than the odds suggest...don't like handicap bets though.

I can't see any real value apart from match odds I guess Wright is worthy of a bet at 4.9. Also MVG average over 100.5 @ 2.16 maybe worth a look as if it goes to form Wright will be helping him prop that up.
By:
aberdonia
When: 01 Jan 14 17:38
i am going to let my small profit on Wright ride.

however if it is tight dont see prices changing very much until we get into the latter stages of the match and Wright will have to get ahead sets wise at some point for the prices to move.


there will be lots of love in the market for MVG right down to the wire, if it gets that far.

just hope that Wright does not freeze and throw in a stinker which is a possibility.
By:
Ravage Again
When: 01 Jan 14 17:48
Yer was trying to careful more like 7-4 in sets

So say 11 sets at 4.2 legs per set

11 * 4.2 * 0.49 = 22.6

LOL that's what' the bookies get
By:
DartsnBooze
When: 01 Jan 14 17:56
Posting this then i shall read through the thread...We know too well that both players can hit the big out shots, but it doesn't mean it's a given every time.

When value becomes value on bf...Price out of line and too big!
Highest match checkout - Under 145.5 @ 6/4 bf

Already on Highest match checkout - Under 153.5 @ 11/13 bw

My banker bet of the Final:
Peter Wright 3 Dart Average - Over 97.5 @ 5/6 vic & lads Cool

Vic has got some right corking alternative markets for the final, like Will there be a robin hood in the match 6/1. Best of all - Vic the Sexist - 1st walk on girl (with Wright) - Blonde 4/5 or Brunette 10/11? Laugh
By:
Hamsterdam
When: 01 Jan 14 18:01
Get your money on the blonde for that bet, Hazel gets the big names.
By:
aberdonia
When: 01 Jan 14 18:15
we should tweet the girls to ask them.
By:
a bitofinterest
When: 01 Jan 14 18:19
good idea,and if they refuse to tell us we should spank their buttocks repeatedly with a large bamboo cane Excited
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