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happyhibee
30 Dec 12 11:59
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
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Well after the drama of last night and possibly one of the best matches ever in the PDC we're left with 4 players who still have a chance of the world title. There's potentially another epic match in store so lets take a look and see what bets are out there for us.

Michael Van Gerwen v James Wade:

QF - MVG bt Adrian Lewis 5-4
Ave: 102.73
180's: 15
HC: 120
CO%: 30%

Wade bt Wes Newton 5-4
Ave: 92.89
180's: 5
HC: 101
CO%: 41%

The first match of the night sees the ever exciting Michael Van Gerwen take on James Wade. I think most people watching last night would agree that Van Gerwen & Lewis served up one of the finest matches ever seen and it was a shame there had to be a loser. However there was and MVG I think just about deserved to win. He had to survive 2 match darts against him but sometimes thats the little bit of luck you need to go on and win tournaments. His scoring power is absolutely frightening andif he doubles even moderately then he's going to take some stopping. Wade again did just enough and hit some clutch doubles at really critical times to edge out Wes Newton. I've said the whole tourney that he doesn't seem to have anything above a mid 90's average in him and if hes going to win he either has to find power scoring from somewhere or MVG has to underperform. I personally can't see either of those things happening and I like the look of 2 bets in this match quite strongly. First up is the match handicap where Wade is receiving 2.5 sets. For him to won this he has to get 4 sets and I honestly dont think that will happen and if MVG gets on a roll he could easily blow Wade away. If pushed I think a 6-2 or 6-3 scoreline is likely so this is a bet I do fancy. The second bet I like the look of is the 180 handicap bet. I'm wary of playing match 180's or individual 180's as I do fear it could be a blow out but on this bet MVG has to outscore Wade by 5 or more to win. He's hit 34 so far in the tournament which is the most and is averaging 1 ever 2.76 legs. Wade on the other hand has only hit 16 in 88 legs which is 1 every 5.5 legs. So based on stats Van Gerwen can be expected to hit 2 to ever 1 of Wade's per 5 legs played. So roughly calculated he should hit 5 more if they play 25 legs and more if it goes further. I honestly think he's capable of 12 or 13 and given Wade has yet to hit more than 5 in a match I think this is a solid wager.

Recommendations: 2pts win Van Gerwen -2.5 sets @ 4/6 (general) & 3pts win MVG -4 180's @ 11/10 (Sky)

Phil Taylor v Raymond Van Barneveld:

QF - Taylor by Andy Hamilton 5-0
Ave: 101.38
180's: 5
HC: 118
CO%: 56%

Barney bt Simon Whitlock 5-1
Ave: 102.32
180's: 9
HC: 135
CO%: 52%

Second semi would be as anticipated as any match between these since their first meeting in the final at the circus tavern. Last few years Barneveld has rolled over to Phil (Think its 16 straight losses) but now he seems to be in a better place and if he keeps his form it should be a tremendous match. However I would always say when Phil's back is against the wall thats when he normally finds his absolute best. Neither were tested seriously in their QF wins but Taylor especially has sauntered through to this stage despite allegedly not being at his best. It shows the fear factor he puts in other players that he's lost only 9 legs so far and this is while his overall tournament average sits around 96. He will have to play well tonight but I fancy he is starting to peak at the right time. Barney has averaged over 100 twice already this championship and in full flow looks so relaxed. He's not been pushed seriously though and has only dropped 2 sets so far and it remains to be seen if he starts to tighten up when the gun is put to his head. I honestly can't pick a winner here but if pushed I'd side with Phil in a thriller but there is 2 bets I like to small stakes. First of all I like the look of the HC market as I expect a lot of legs here and Taylor especially seems to find big finishes as the tournaments progress. Over 139 is beatable but its a high line and as such its a small bet. I also like the look of Barney winning the h'cap 180's bet again to small stakes. He's hit 25 in 71 legs so far for an average of 1 every 2.84 legs while Taylor has only hit 11 in 58 legs played for an average of 1 every 5.4 legs. As in the previous match it means Barney is hitting almost 2 to every 1 of Phil and as such the -2 handicap looks beatable.

Recommendations: 1pt win HC over 139 @ 5/6 (VC) & 2pts win Barney -2 180's @ Evs (Paddy)

Summary: Really looking forward to this tonight after last nights matches and hopeful of a few winners too. Hopefully a comfy Van Gerwen win sets us up nicel for the big match and if there's a high check from either and Barney hits a few more maxes then I'll be a happy chappy Happy

All the best to all on here punting tonight and all wagers and discussion as welcome as ever. Hopefully it matches last night when I can honestly say I had one of the best nights on the forum having a laugh and watching some great arrers.
HH Happy

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By:
Cosmo Kramer
When: 30 Dec 12 12:12
Great write ups as ever HH. Good pick outs on the 180 bets, I was looking for an angle for the 180's and I think I will follow you in on those.

I watched the full MVG game last night and if he had hit his finishes early on it could well have been a blow out. Credit to Bingo though for fighting back.

I really hope Barney & Taylor is a classic, I just hope Sylv keeps doing what she's been doing to get Barney in the right frame of mind.
By:
happyhibee
When: 30 Dec 12 12:14
I was looking for the angle too mate and think this is the best way. Match 180's in MVG match totally reliant on him hitting 75% of them I think so you're as well either playing his individual maxes or this bet. Sylvia's special massages are clearly magical my friend Love
By:
DONEMYLOT
When: 30 Dec 12 12:22
Great semis. Feel Wade is under-rated still and overpriced, esp on the outright where 12-1 looks silly. However he is playing the man I fancied all along and that puts me off as you cant see MVG failing.

Just going to enjoy them.

GL
By:
the silverback
When: 30 Dec 12 12:39
I actually think there's some value on Wade (prefer the handicap price).

Probably his best performance over (at least) the last couple of years was against MVG at the Matchplay. Couldn't say how relevant that is but I think MVG is just a touch short regardless.

And I can't remember the last time I backed Wade in any shape or form.
By:
happyhibee
When: 30 Dec 12 12:40
true but I looked at the prices from 6 months ago and wade was 2/5 to win. Shows how much form has changed in a short space of time
By:
the silverback
When: 30 Dec 12 12:49
More than one way to interpret that price difference HH.

Except for the ridiculous price for Barney in the GSOD final I don't think I've opposed MVG since and definitely haven't backed Wade.

I don't think it's a big price by any means, just a little too big.

The Taylor price on the other hand. I could reel off numerous reasons why I think it's way out.
I do think Barney can win, its definitely his biggest chance for a long time but that doesn't mean much. I kind of hope he does win, but in my opinion the chance of things falling into place are way less than the price suggests. The market seems blinkered and is ignoring what how Taylor has performed all year with the exception of the Euro championships where he claimed excuses (which i didn't buy) and a couple of leisurely strolls in the first two rounds here. The gap has closed but Taylor hasn't dipped as much as most people think.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 30 Dec 12 12:52
Great write up HH.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 30 Dec 12 12:55
For the last few months I've been wondering how is it possible that MVG has been so bad for so many years, and then he's not just regained his brilliance (and more) but developed such a consistent streak too.

Has he been 'bonging it' for years or has he just started doing so? Devil
I don't know how these things would affect a player's performance.

I think HH's advice on the 180's h'cap is excellent value and it's a pity that the 3.2/1 double can't be backed as it's solid meaty nourishment!
I can't see the prices on Oddschecker for the double HH, so can you tell us where the best price double is available to get on?

I hate backing at short odds but I'd be terrified to lay the 1/4 certainty for MVG to hit more 180's than Wade...it's as sure as anything you'll see in this game.
By:
happyhibee
When: 30 Dec 12 12:55
I think Taylor should be 1/2ish maybe 4/9 mate but the price is obviously factoring in Barney's form. As you say though bar the one blip Phil has played extremely well again all year and given the h2h record over recent years too he maybe should be shorter.
By:
happyhibee
When: 30 Dec 12 12:57
PP are 8/11 MVG -3 on the 180's so you could back the double there and it pays about 9/4? Dunno what it pays with Sky think it's 10/11 and 11/10 so almost 3/1 but you're -4 on the MVG bet
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 30 Dec 12 12:58
I think i'm going to have a  MVG/Taylor double.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 30 Dec 12 13:03
Really hope barney can keep up his form and come out on top tonight.

Just fear that by around 7 tonight he will be spending a lot of time on bog.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 30 Dec 12 13:07
Thanks HH - if you can get 11/10 MVG (-4) and Evens Barney (-2) then that's a 3.2/1 double...I wouldn't fancy taking 9/4 (with MVG -3) as I'd want 3/1 (for the original bet which is probably the bet of the tournament) though it's still value I suppose - it's a very decent wager.
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 30 Dec 12 13:46
does anyone else like the PP 5/4 on MVG to win have most
180s and the highest checkout. .. I think its a gift from god
if like we all think this could be all over in 7 sets
By:
Kevbetting superstar
When: 30 Dec 12 13:54
SY - hope you are wrong.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 30 Dec 12 13:58
I thought Lewis was excellent last night but was under constant pressure from MVG. Wade is not capable of producing a Lewis-style performance
By:
woolwellgreen
When: 30 Dec 12 14:48
I think Barney is cracking value tonight. He has preformed as well, if not better than Phil through this tournament and dont forget the power is ill. MVG will limp to a comfortable win to set up all dutch final.
By:
alun2005
When: 30 Dec 12 15:09
I think Barney has a very solid chance to win tonight.
By:
Danno
When: 30 Dec 12 15:21
Is that true that Taylor is ill?

Any source, or just a rumour?  If true, then 1-2 hours on a hot stage under pressure to perform will be relevant
By:
The Naked Man
When: 30 Dec 12 15:22
He said he had a temperature in his interview.
By:
happyhibee
When: 30 Dec 12 15:24
Yeah he said it himself after beating Hamilton that he felt a bit under the weather
By:
laynplay
When: 30 Dec 12 15:25
Brian_Ookiebasher • December 30, 2012 2:46 PM GMT


does anyone else like the PP 5/4 on MVG to win have most
180s and the highest checkout. .. I think its a gift from god
if like we all think this could be all over in 7 sets
.....

no
its a treble that adds up to 5/4...think about it.
yes he will probably win
yes he will probably get most 180s
yes he is marginal fav to get the highest check out.

my tissue would be 1.8 for him to get the highest check out on its own so 5/4 is not the bet of the century...win or lose.
By:
The Naked Man
When: 30 Dec 12 15:25
First to six so it may become an issue.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 30 Dec 12 15:54
You know Taylor will turn up in form, you couldn't say for sure that Barney will. He is overpriced if he does though.
By:
Danno
When: 30 Dec 12 15:57
OK thanks lads. Didn't watch the interview.

Can't see past a Van Gerwen victory tonight by some margin. Form & confidence both in abundance; Wadey might be lucky to nick a set if MVG finds his doubles early.

Watching brief only for the Taylor v Barney match. Can't call it & should be a classic for the purists.
By:
scarecrow
When: 30 Dec 12 16:07
you just know taylor will play to a decent level.you have to think that unless barney starts fast and gets a good start he could easily papp,he needs to have phil chewing flights early doors or phil might beat him up.i honestly think taylor is a fair bit bigger than he should be because of the way barney has played,but that was not against the man who has beaten him 16 times in a row.4/7 phil is a bit big imho i would not want to lay phil above 4/9ish myself.unless wade starts to score more heavily and i just dont see it happening at this time he is going to be so far behind in so many legs that he will have hardly any hope of winning unless mvg played his final against bingo last night but i just dont see that happening either.i have to say as well lewis went up big time in my estimation last night,he played so well and showed he had the heart of a true champion even in defeat.
By:
Hamsterdam
When: 30 Dec 12 16:20
Don't be surprised if Wade knocks MVG's average down to 95 or something and beats him Wink It's what Wadey does...coasts along and waits for a killer double to KO his opponent. That said Wade has struggled in recent years against these 'power' players who relentlessly hit 180's! I just wouldn't oppose Wade at those prices. MVG will need to improve that 25% doubles check-out rate.
By:
aberdonia
When: 30 Dec 12 16:38
mvg got killed a few times last night and still averaged over 100

he will murder Wade tonight even with the games he will play to try and unsettle MVG.

If Barney comes out of the first 4 sets level, i think he has a great chance.

Hope Taylor wins as i want MVG to destroy him.
By:
GoBallistic
When: 30 Dec 12 16:47
The short turnaround could be a bit of a leveller in the first semi
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 30 Dec 12 16:51
Just took a walk to the bookies to try and get that 180 handicap double on and neither of the cowards would take it!

I had to settle for the straight 180 double instead with MVG at 1/4 & RVB at 4/9, and that's as good a 4/5 shot (slightly over) you'll see!

Knowing the way my betting goes on any match with Taylor in it, he'll dispense with his usual 177 option and fcuk me right up...AGAIN Angry
By:
Biscuit1979
When: 30 Dec 12 16:55
Anyone think it's a bit unfair that the 2 players who played last night are in the first semi and the 2 guys who've had 48 hours rest, are on last.
By:
md49vd
When: 30 Dec 12 16:57
6-0 van gerwin looks tasty
By:
woolwellgreen
When: 30 Dec 12 16:57
Sky dictate the order of play. Taylor v Barney was always going to be the 2nd game
By:
scarecrow
When: 30 Dec 12 16:59
thats skys fault they schedule the matchs to suit themself and will want as much time as possible to hype phil v rvb
By:
fiddles
When: 30 Dec 12 17:05
Wade has beaten MVG the last 7 times they have played. 1.25 looks a bit skinney.
By:
loserschaselosers
When: 30 Dec 12 17:05
after a late night you may rather be on early rather than hanging about all evening  ?
By:
scarecrow
When: 30 Dec 12 17:14
darts players are on the same level as a bradley wiggins or mo farah as far as fitness goes,i dont envisage any stamina,fitness troubles Wink
By:
baduk
When: 30 Dec 12 17:20
Really like the look of the Mvg handicap bet but can't see it on SLybet any ideas?
By:
MrLay0-0
When: 30 Dec 12 17:23
fiddles did you not see both of their previous matches?
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