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happyhibee
28 Dec 11 09:47
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 33,262 | Blogger: happyhibee's blog
Yesterday saw some more terrific matches culminating in the shock defeat of Phil Taylor which has thrown the tournament wide open. It now puts a bit of pressure on the other players though as they now think its there to be won for them with Taylor out of the way. Today sees R2 completed and the first two R3 matches take place in the evening. Looks quite trappy I think but might be a worthwhile bet or 2 along the way.

Mervyn King v Michael Van Gerwen:
R1 - King bt Geoff Kime 3-0
Ave: 98.02
180's: 3
Doubles hit: 64%
HC: 82

MVG bt Colin Osborne 3-1
Ave: 93.84
180's: 2
Doubles hit: 30%
HC: 135

Interesting opening match sees King take on a rejuvinated Van Gerwen. Merv was under absolutely no pressure in R1 v easily the worst performer to make it through but he has showed signs of getting back to his best in the last month or 2. He struggled badly after the death of his father but hopefully he is now emerging at the other end and is ready to play his best darts again. I've been quite surprised by Van Gerwen lately as he is starting to show some more consistency and is definitely playing a lot better on tv than he has previously. Played well v Ossie in his opening win and if he doubles ok then this could be a very tight match. Not got a strong opinion but I do think this might be a 6 or 7 setter and as such I'm going to have a small bet on the total sets.

Recommendation: 1pt win over 5.5 sets @ 8/11 (BSQ)

Simon Whitlock v Steve Beaton:
R1 - Whitlock bt Dennis Smith 3-0
Ave: 105.11
180's: 7
Doubles hit: 60%
HC: 125

Beaton bt Magnus Caris 3-2
Ave: 81.8
180's: 0
Doubles hit: 35%
HC: 100

Whitlock averaged by far the highest of anyone in R1 and considering the pre match rumours I was expecting him to come in with worse legs than Lieutenant Dan! As it was he played tremendously v a very limited opponent. Scored heavily, finished well and pretty much looked like the Whitlock who lost in the final 2 years ago. Continues that form and hes going to go very far. On the other hand Beaton was dreadful in his opener and really should have lost if the crowd hadn't got in Caris's head. I think it was mentioned on here that he had a minor knee op before the game and whether that affected him I don't know but he did look very ill at ease the whole match. If he plays like that again there's no way Whitlock will let him off. Looked at a couple of markets on here but the prices look about right I feel and I can only see a Whitlock win in this one.

Recommendation: No Bet

Colin Lloyd v Scott Rand:
R1 - Lloyd bt Darin Young 3-1
Ave: 94.72
180's: 4
Doubles hit: 36%
HC: 52

Rand bt Andy Smith 3-0
Ave: 94.59
180's: 2
Doubles hit: 64%
HC: 87

Last game of the afternoon is the one match I am looking forward to most of all day. Both guys played well in their opening wins and I think this could be a real ding donger if both turn up in the same form. Lloyd had to withstand a bit of a barrage in the first set v Young in R1 but I thought he knuckled down well and ran out a deserved winner. Rand on the other hand played well, doubled brilliantly (best % of R1 along with King) and generally showed a great attitude for someone only just on the big stage. As we spoke about at the time I thought he would be fav v Lloyd but bit surprised to see him as short as 4/6. After tipping him at big prices in the outright I can safely swerve the odds on but the bet I like here is the highest finish. I think there will be plenty of legs in this one and I always like supporting good doublers in this market as if they get the chance they are more likely to take it. Rand especially impresses me with his doubles and as such the high check is the way to go for me.

Recommendation: 1.5pt win over 125.5 HC @ 5/6 (General)

Gary Anderson v Devon Petersen:
R1 - Anderson bt Jyhan Artut 3-2
Ave: 95.93
180's: 8
Doubles hit: 29%
HC: 120

Petersen bt Steve Brown 3-2
Ave: 86.94
180's: 6
Doubles hit: 48%
HC: 120

Last game of R2 is the first game up this evening and it sees Anderson take on the south african qualifier Devon Petersen. Anderson was his usual self in R1 making hard work of a match that should have been a stroll but in fairness to him I thought he actually battled well from 2-0 down. He was let off by Artut who missed match darts but he took his chance when offered and it might just make him stronger and give him some belief. Petersen came through a qualifier and then played ok v Brown in a decent match. He's a funny player for me as I think he scores ok at times but he never convinces me with his consistency or his doubling and I think if he is to win then Anderson has to be way below par again. Obviously the 180 line is the one always of interest when Anderson plays and I think this might be touch and go whether it can get over the mark. Anderson could blow his opponent away here and still cover the line but I have a thought that Petersen might nick a set and if he does the over 10 is beatable.

Recommendation: 1pt win over 10.5 maxes @ 8/11 (General)

Adrian Lewis v Wayne Jones:
R2 - Lewis bt Robert Thornton 4-2
Ave: 96.24
180's: 6
Doubles hit: 54%
HC: 170

Jones bt Roland Scholten 4-0
Ave: 91.07
180's: 4
Doubles hit: 35%
HC: 116

Opening match of R3 sees the defending champ take centre stage v Wayne Jones. To date I don't think Lewis is playing anywhere near as well as he did last year showing form for 1 or 2 sets then totally losing it. He had to come from 2 down in his match v Heydon and then in R2 Thornton had darts to level at 3-3 but couldn't take his chance. If Lewis finds his best he can blow anybody away in next to no time but I just think all is not quite right at the moment for the champ. Jones came through a match with a very disappointing Scholten and he is a player I've always liked supporting. He sometimes throws stupid sloppy darts under pressure but I like his attitude and he is very gritty. I'm itching to oppose Lewis at the right time but I was looking for a slightly bigger price for Jones to be the man to do it. As such I'm going to have a bet on Jones to cover the handicap as I think he can win 2 sets here.

Recommendation: 2pts win Wayne Jones +2.5 sets @ 10/11 (Hills)

Terry Jenkins v Justin Pipe:
R2 - Jenkins bt Co Stompe 4-1
Ave: 94.45
180's: 6
Doubles hit: 37%
HC: 126

Pipe bt Wes Newton 4-3
Ave: 91.83
180's: 6
Doubles hit: 27%
HC: 90

Last match of today might take a while as Justin has been put on last again and he's not going to change his style. I'm not a fan of watching him because he is so pedestrian but everyone can play as they wish and other players should stop moaning about it as its not exactly a surprise to them when they play him. Jenks played great for 2 sets yesterday but then went off the boil a bit and in the end he only just stumbled over the finishing line. He is playing much better tho and he's going to be looking at another good run especially with Taylor departing. Pipe has done well to reach R3 and he's showing why he is dominating a lot of these floor tournaments. I still think he has more to give though and it will be interesting to see how this goes. I think this looks like a long drawn out affair again and the bet I like is over 5 sets again which looks a bit overpriced to me.

Recommendation: 2pts win over 5.5 sets @ 8/11 (BSQ)

Summary: Another bumper days action and hopefully it includes 2 or 3 winners for me. Really excited though as its been a terrific tournament to date and long may it continue. All views and banter as welcome as it always is and best of luck to anybody sticking their money down on today's matches.
HH Happy

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Replies: 1,124
By:
YCMMEI
When: 28 Dec 11 09:51
I set my alarm at 06:50 looking for this, very dissapointed it has taken 4 hours HH CryCryCry
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 10:04
Sorry mate I had friends at mines till 2am last night so I needed my kip this morning Laugh
By:
scarecrow
When: 28 Dec 11 10:06
hh can you not start a ramp that whitlocks leg is now infected and on the verge of falling of please so i can have evens again like the smiffy match.i to am surprised that rand is so short i though he would be circa 5/6 not 4/6 but i dont like betting jaws as he can throw a stinker in and i liked rands attitude very much and the way he has coducted himself.
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 10:09
I thought Rand about 5/6 or 10/11 Scarey so 4/6 looks a bit skinny. I do think he might win but after tipping him outright it makes no sense to back him here at a price that looks shorter than it should be
By:
scarecrow
When: 28 Dec 11 10:13
yes just looking at your bare stats it looks like jaws outscored him but did not finish as well in round one so they both ended up with very similar averages,rand has played well recently and i guess thats why he is favoured but it looks like a close one to me.
By:
YCMMEI
When: 28 Dec 11 11:03
IMO Rand has to fall apart soon and play ****, i have a very sneaky feeling it will be today, like a 88 average and 32% on doubles, something like that.

I think rands a lay at the price
By:
scarecrow
When: 28 Dec 11 11:07
i would be backing jaws myself at the odds but having been bitten more than once in the past despite the stats i think jaws the more likely not to turn up so i am going to leave this one.
By:
Supernando2010
When: 28 Dec 11 11:21
tecwen whittock will win
By:
the silverback
When: 28 Dec 11 12:01
Value bet of the day:

Beaton 13-2 most 180s v Whitlock. Yeah, I know Beaton didn't hit one in the first round and Whitlock smashed them in.

And Beaton has had that knee op etc.

But let the more long-term stats do the talking.

Crazy price however comfortable a loser it is.
By:
Lori
When: 28 Dec 11 12:10
Haven't thanked HH for a few days, so thanks HH keep it up
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:11
More betting masterclasses from the Sky team
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:11
Ha ha thanks Lori Grin
By:
Lori
When: 28 Dec 11 12:12
Mardle opens up with a bet of Wade at 9/2, Lewis at 5/1, Chisnall at 8/1, Whitlock at 8/1, Nicholson at 10/1, Painter at 16/1 and King at 20/1
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:12
But anderson is too short
By:
DartsnBooze
When: 28 Dec 11 12:13
I can't be having Beaton whatsoever. After having an op to clear a couple of chipped bones in his knee i'm steering well clear.

I really fancy Whitlock and Lewis to cover their highest checkout quotes.

From my multitude of blogged selections i'll stick these up here:

King v MVG Total 180's - Over 8.5 @ 8/11 bsq
Whitlock Highest Match Checkout - Over 116.5* @ 5/6 pp
Lloyd v Rand Total 180s- Over 9.5 @ 1/1 lads

Total Anderson 180s - Over 6.5 @ 5/6 pp
Lewis Highest Match Checkout - Over 115.5* @ 5/6 pp
Jenkins v Pipe - Total 180s - Over 10.5 @ 5/6 gen

Double pays 3.3*

Good luck everyone Grin
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 28 Dec 11 12:14
Mervs A game today
By:
Josha007
When: 28 Dec 11 12:15
I fancy King in this match big time.Van Gerwen is playing ok, but nothing like what the pundits are bigging him up as.King always consistent.
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:15
Does MVG only have 1 shirt?
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:19
Pyke and Gwynne terrific Cry
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 28 Dec 11 12:19
kings consistency should be too much here
By:
scarecrow
When: 28 Dec 11 12:19
it may well suit mervyn here with a nice quiet,respectful not drunk crowd.
By:
Lori
When: 28 Dec 11 12:20
Yeah, I'm not a fan of Gwynne tbh Wink
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:20
I think it all depends how MVG doubles. Cannot be giving his throw away when he has 3 at a double tho
By:
The Moth
When: 28 Dec 11 12:20
Got to finish better than that FFS
By:
Lori
When: 28 Dec 11 12:21
Think King is vastly more consistent now he's over his dad and all that jazz.
By:
scarecrow
When: 28 Dec 11 12:22
oh dear john good call Sad
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:22
MVG all over was that check
By:
the silverback
When: 28 Dec 11 12:22
He's upped his scoring just a little too. Bit more prolific on the 180s
By:
aberdonia
When: 28 Dec 11 12:24
I saw MWG destroy King a few years back.  It is etched in my memory.  King did not win a leg.

Hope MWG does it, he is the better player imo.
By:
KJPG
When: 28 Dec 11 12:24
this should be a belter!
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:24
Funny thing is Silver I always thought he was a big 180 hitter in his BDO days but never really showed it in the PDC
By:
Lori
When: 28 Dec 11 12:25
He seems a lot more comfortable with his "role" and how to handle the crowd too.
By:
scarecrow
When: 28 Dec 11 12:25
mvg just blows hot and cold i am not convinced he will be able to play well enough over a long period to beat king,butwewill see.
By:
the silverback
When: 28 Dec 11 12:26
Not got any stats from BDO days but there was generally nice value on the unders during his premier league matches. Seems to be getting his first dart better to follow in these days.
By:
happyhibee
When: 28 Dec 11 12:26
Just accepted hes gonna get stick and doesnt let it worry him now.

Poor again from MVG with the set at his mercy
By:
the silverback
When: 28 Dec 11 12:27
Tournaments seem so much better without Taylor (bar the Shepherd Part debacle)
By:
TRICKYTREES
When: 28 Dec 11 12:28
how many max thus far please ?
By:
Lori
When: 28 Dec 11 12:29
They'd be even better without Gwynne
By:
The Moth
When: 28 Dec 11 12:29
Should settle him down that come on Mighty Mike
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