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happyhibee
23 Dec 11 16:07
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 33,262 | Blogger: happyhibee's blog
Sorry for the delay finished up work today and not long home. Also got to nip back out so might not be around much this evening but hopefully I can tip a winner or two before I disappear.

Mark Walsh v Kevin Painter:
R1 - Walsh bt Warren French 3-1
Ave: 93.8
180's: 5
Doubles hit: 41%
HC: 96

Painter bt Arron Monk 3-1
Ave: 95.88
180's: 6
Doubles Hit: 58%
HC: 70

Opening match looks an interesting match between 2 of the established PDC players. I thought Walsh played a bit in and out in R1 and although he wasn't under much pressure he did respond when he had to from a set down. Painter is riding the crest of a wave right now carrying on from winning his first tv event in Doncaster to playing really well v Monk in his opening win. I thought he scored really well and finished tremendously and he's probably a justifiable favourite here. Bet I like the look of in this one is the maximums as I think it has the potential to have a lot of close sets and may go all the way. Throw in the fact that they are both pretty good on the t20 and I think the line is a little low.

Recommendation: 2pts win over 11.5 maxes @ Evs (Lads)

James Wade v Jelle Klaasen:
R1 - Wade bt Petri Korte 3-1
Ave: 91.69
180's: 1
Doubles hit: 53%
HC: 115

Klaasen bt Peter Wright 3-1
Ave: 88.24
Doubles hit: 63%
HC: 120

Interesting game is this one between the 6 time major winner Wade and the former BDO World Champ Klaasen. Wade played no better than average in his opener v Korte and I think he needs to find his game more if he is going to go deep in this. He often does just enough to win matches though and he does know how to dig in and grind a win out when things arent going to plan. Klaasen didn't score as heavily as he can in his win but he had the 3rd best % of doubles hit from the winners and that was the foundation for his win. I couldn't begin to support Wade at the prices on offer as he is capable of throwing really poorly but so is Klaasen but 9/2 is almost too big for someone who can string together 4 or 5 great legs. I do like the look of the highest checkout in this match though as Wade is fantastic at the crucial outshots and Klaasen is always prone to just producing a big kill out of nowhere.

Recommendation: 1pt win over 125.5 HC @ 5/6 (General)

Steve Farmer v Kevin Munch:
R1 - Farmer bt Ronnie Baxter 3-2
Ave: 87.43
180's: 7
Doubles hit: 34%
HC: 102

Munch bt Denis Ovens (Walkover)
Ave: 98.02 (1 set played)

Last game is a strange one for me between 2 pretty unknown quantities. Farmer has played a few times on tv and in his opening round he looked in total control, then looked as if he was gone and somehow regrouped to end up going through. He is a 85-90 ave man at best over a long course I think but that might be good enough here. Hard to evaluate Munch as he won his prelim easily and then was under no pressure v Ovens who was almost unable to play. Apart from that its hard to evaluate much of an opinion on him. I'm a bit surprised to see Farmer as such a strong favourite here as he's not exactly a tv regular and just on the prices I am going to have a minimum bet on the german Munch.

Recommendation: 0.5pt win Kevin Munch @ 21/10 (Lads)

Summary: Looks like an interesting evening in store and the one big fancy is the maxes in the opener. The other 2 bets are more gut bets but I think they have decent chances of obliging. Best of luck with all bets this evening and I'll catch up with the regulars when I get back tonight.
HH Happy

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Replies: 537
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 23 Dec 11 16:15
Ive got to the stage where i read the Recommendation, Get the bet on, then read the whole post.

Good stuff HH and Good luck Sir.
By:
happyhibee
When: 23 Dec 11 16:16
Cheers Brian you too buddy Happy
By:
cliff
When: 23 Dec 11 16:20
Can't resist a punt on Klaasen @ 9/2.
By:
happyhibee
When: 23 Dec 11 16:22
I was close to as well Cliff it just looks a little too big even for a trade
By:
the silverback
When: 23 Dec 11 16:22
I quite like the overs in the Farmer match for what it's worth. Munch looks like he can hit a few and Farmer's excellent around the treble when on song.
By:
happyhibee
When: 23 Dec 11 16:23
My worry about that would be one or both of them freezing Silverback as its probably the biggest game in both of their careers and they both know its a great chance to get to the last 16.
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 23 Dec 11 16:26
u8 180's on the Farmer - Munch match?
By:
max1million
When: 23 Dec 11 16:27
Good write up HH. I like the look of Kevin munch from what little we saw of him last saturday. He has the throw of a winner and the kind of attitude that could carry him well, without much to go on as far as coping with a longer format, i was impressed enough with his scoring and finishing to give him a 50/50 chance vs. farmer here so the price looks very good imo. I too am out for the evening so am backing munch one pt. at 11/5 on here and laying wade at 1.22 leaving a back at 1.6 ish for a trade out hoping maybe Klaassen wins the bull and holds the first set comfortably. Good luck in all your bets and thanks for the analysis.
By:
cliff
When: 23 Dec 11 16:49
I just don't like the Munch/Farmer game at all betting-wise but, conversely, it's probably the most interesting match of the night. Games where it's the players' biggest game of their lives always interest me...
By:
Danno
When: 23 Dec 11 17:25
Great write up HH.  Thanks again.

Wouldn't have picked out the max bet on the Walsh/Painter game, but I agree that it might go to seven sets, so could oblige.  I'll have a dabble on that for fun.
GL all.
By:
u want some
When: 23 Dec 11 17:37
Great write up as usual HH

I've gone. Painter had chances to hit over on the checkouts first time out but because monk was miles behind he played safe. don't think walsh will be miles behind and both wade and klassen are more than capable. good luck everyone
Bet ref: 5/5
Over 125.5 @ 4/5
Painter v Walsh
Highest Checkout Score
Over 125.5 @ 4/5
Wade v Klaasen
Highest Checkout Score
Total stake    £ 200.00
Estimated return    £ 648.00
Full stake    £ 200.00
Full estimated return    £ 648.00
By:
The Naked Man
When: 23 Dec 11 17:46
i just think having watched last nights matches that both players need to be on song to reach 11 max's. i think Walsh was average in the first round and painter should have the momentum to take him out imo.
By:
scarecrow
When: 23 Dec 11 17:50
im not so sure pre donny if this was priced up it would be very close as to who would be fav,it looks and feels like there wont be much in this.these guys can all play and apart from anderson and lewis though they need time to get to that mark,if they play at least six sets like i expect them to i would be surprised if they do not cover it but we will see.
By:
Claret85
When: 23 Dec 11 17:54
Wade has a 13-1 H2H record over Klaasen. I've done Wade on the handicap. That's got to be in Klaasen's head, plus he's been poor since he made the Premier League.
By:
tino147
When: 23 Dec 11 17:59
fair comment hh
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:05
Sorry for the delay finished up work today and not long home.

yeah, how dare you be late giving us all free good writeups!!

You caught up okay on all the shennanigans last night?
By:
the silverback
When: 23 Dec 11 18:09
Anyone offer me a spread on how many times Mardle says "indeed" tonight.
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:09
fewer than "pressure"
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:09
No way Laddies are going 1/5 and 9/2 on a two horse race
By:
sickoflayinwinners
When: 23 Dec 11 18:10
surely 4/6 painter against the old ploddr walsh is more than fair, i dont like betting the odds on chances but i think im joining in here
By:
johnwark
When: 23 Dec 11 18:12
walsh looks really out of sorts to me, think painters a decent punt here
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 23 Dec 11 18:12
THey are Lori, just checked... not like them
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:13
Probably palp both sides Shocked
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:13
joking aside, decent promotion that
By:
Biscuit1979
When: 23 Dec 11 18:14
the silverback 23 Dec 11 19:09 
Anyone offer me a spread on how many times Mardle says "indeed" tonight.



Not as many times as Rod says Dave when he's asked a question
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:15
Dartitis landed before the first leg started
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:16
You'd think Rod would know it's not a hockey by now
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:16
Gwynne's still a complete c*** then
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 23 Dec 11 18:17
Is it not Laugh
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 23 Dec 11 18:18
walshy has come out firing, 6/5 was hugeeeeeeeeeee
By:
themover
When: 23 Dec 11 18:18
its the doubles that count Love
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:18
Shirley from Eastenders off to a flyer
By:
Nilsson Schmilsson
When: 23 Dec 11 18:19
been in the bar with bristow


*****NAP
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 23 Dec 11 18:21
How many times will Mardle repeat a sentence?

For example... He is you know, he is you knooooow?
By:
Why so serious?
When: 23 Dec 11 18:21
Can someone keep the 180's count up to date please?Thanks in advance.
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:21
He loves to say things twice, to say things twice.
By:
Lori
When: 23 Dec 11 18:22
Will Mardle manage a threepeat though?
By:
pauliow
When: 23 Dec 11 18:22
Just like Harrington.............No question!
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 23 Dec 11 18:25
terrible start for 180's backers
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