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happyhibee
26 Dec 10 10:01
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 33,262 | Blogger: happyhibee's blog
Hopefully everyone had a nice christmas and is looking forward to the darts action hotting up. Unfortunately my nan passed away on Christmas Eve but at least now she's not in any pain Sad Below is the preview of the games due to be played on Monday Happy

Mark Webster v Ronnie Baxter:
R1 Webster bt Steve Maish 3-0
3 dart ave: 98.93
Doubles: 47.4%
180's: 2
HC: 120

Baxter bt Roland Scholten 3-0
3 dart ave: 94.1%
Doubles: 50%
180's: 2
HC: 118

Opening match of R2 sees the much fancied Webster take on the experienced Ronnie Baxter. Webster played really well in his opening match but was under no pressure at the hands of Maish and this represents a significantly harder task. He did also show very good form in the world cup but does this justify quotes of 1/2? Baxter again was very effective in beating Scholten and I would be surprised if he doesnt average somewhere in the low to mid 90's in this match. If Webster is to win then he will need to play well as I don't see Ronnie just handing him this match. Simply at the prices I have to back Baxter as I cannot see how he wont trade lower here given that Webby is definitely nervy in close matches and I can't see how this won't be close.
Recommendation: 1pt win Ronnie Baxter @ 15/8 (SJ)

Paul Nicholson v Peter Wright:
R1 Nicholson bt Steve Farmer 3-0
3 dart ave: 97.39
Doubles: 81.8%
180's: 2
HC: 141

Wright bt Co Stompe 3-1
3 dart ave: 80.76
Doubles: 47.8%
180's: 2
HC: 102

2nd match of the afternoon sees a lively outsider in Nicholson take on Peter Wright. I've always rated Nicholson very highly as I think he has a lot of talent, does a great interview and generally is entertaining in a man you love to hate sort of way. He played really nicely in his opener and finished the best of any player who won hitting 9/11 doubles thrown at which is exceptional. Wright on the other hand was pretty poor v Stompe despite his victory which owed a lot to Stompe's woeful finishing more than Wright's good play. 80 average while hitting 1 out of 2 doubles is not good enough at this level and if he plays like that then he will be on the end of a heavy defeat. I honestly can't see anything than a routine victory for the super spy here and as such he merits support on the handicap market.
Recommendation: 1pt win Paul Nicholson -2.5 sets @ Evs (General)

Andy Hamilton v Robert Thornton:
R1 Hamilton bt Dennis Smith 3-0
3 dart ave: 79.42
Doubles: 45%
180's: 0
HC: 106

Thornton bt Nigel Heydon 3-1
3 dart ave: 91.23
Doubles: 45.8%
180's: 2
HC: 85

Final match of the afternoon sees in my view a match that will have massive swings back and forth. Hamilton was dreadful in his opening match but was lucky that Smiffy was even worse and he somehow achieved a 3-0 win. Make no mistake though if he plays the same again he will not be as lucky twice. Thornton on the other hand played ok and actually finished cleanly for a change which is always his achilles heel. At first I was going to support Thornton here but he's a player I never get right and instead I think the best way to go here is in the high checkout market. I think both players are very capable of hitting the big outshots and I honestly think this has 6 sets minimum on it so there should be potentially a lot of legs and chances for it to cop.
Recommendation: 1pt win over 121.5 HC @ 5/6 (SJ)

Colin Lloyd v Mark Hylton:
R1 Lloyd bt Andree Welge 3-2
3 dart ave: 84.35
Doubles: 31.2%
180's: 2
HC: 116

Hylton bt Steve Beaton 3-2
3 dart ave: 90.14
Doubles: 40.6%
180's: 7
HC: 83

First match of the evening sees Lloyd with his damaged knuckles take on the former cabin crew member Hylton. First of all Lloyd played well for 2 sets in his R1 match but then totally lost the plot culminating in him taking out his frustrations with a right hook to treble 17. He actually did well to get his composure back and the 86 he hit to stay alive in the deciding set was top drawer. Hylton actually impressed in his match v Beaton who was a little under par but still had to be beat. He will come on for his first match on the big stage at Ally Pally I think and if the occasion doesn't get to him then he can claim another big scalp.
Recommendation: 0.5pts win Mark Hylton @ 5/2 (General)

Adrian Lewis v Mark Dudbridge:
R1: Lewis bt Tony Eccles 3-0
3 dart ave: 94.87
Doubles: 45%
180's: 3
HC: 156

Dudbridge bt Alex Roy 3-1
3 dart ave: 92.6
Doubles: 45.4%
180's: 6
HC: 85

At first I thought Lewis was a bit disappointing despite his 3-0 win over Eccles in R1. However given he was full of the flu and based on the other performances in the round it probably carries a bit more merit than I first thought. He took out some crucial shots at big times and finished to a decent level as well. Dudders seemed to play to a decent standard as well v Roy but the problem I have with him is you've never got a clue how he will perform from 1 day to the next. He's capable but if Lewis is focused I can't see him losing. Wanted to get long of maxes here but the line looks high and the worry is Lewis could go daft for 4 sets and tie this up in next to no time. As such I will cheer my outright bet on Adie instead.
Recommendation: No bet

Phil Taylor v Per Laursen:
R1 Taylor bt Gary Mawson 3-0
3 dart ave: 88.49
Doubles: 26.5%
180's: 1
HC: 121

Laursen bt John Part 3-0
3 dart ave: 83.66
Doubles: 47.4%
180's: 2
HC: 92

Taylor comes into this match in the most despondent mood I can remember him ever being in. Talking of retirement, not happy with the crowds or his form and generally looking out of sorts. He's clearly not right but is he going to be shocked by the dane here? I very much doubt it. Laursen did well to hold himself together v Part but he didn't play that well and was undoubtedly helped by Part finishing at about 16% in the match. At least his win means we get a chance to see his fit daughter again though Grin. Don't know what Taylor we will see here but something tells me he might just bounce back with a 3 figure average and silence all the doubters.
Recommendation: No Bet

Summary: A few fancies on the first day back at the darts and hopefully we can turn a profit. All views welcome and lets hope for some good matches and banter from all on here. Happy

Best of luck to all who are punting tomorrow and may all the chat be friendly Happy
HH

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Replies: 1,230
By:
onehundredandeighty
When: 26 Dec 10 10:19
Great write up once again HH.Sorry to hear about your nan.Best of luck to you
By:
peckham flasher
When: 26 Dec 10 10:56
Sad
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 26 Dec 10 10:59
Sorry for you loss Hibee.

Your write up's all the more remarkable for it. I'm sure your nan would be ever so proud.

RPM
By:
Brief
When: 26 Dec 10 11:03
Sincere condolences HHB. Thanks for your post and for the detailed analysis which hopefully will bring in a bob or two.
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 26 Dec 10 11:09
I posted my 2nd round opinions on another thread but was too idle to offer up a staking plan as i'll be coping out and having a trading frenzy.

How about a Darts World Championship forum challenge starting from Round two for a bit of fun.
One Point x odds per match??? Appologies in advance if one already exists.

(So many topics to trawl through but i'm getting there.) [;)]

Hibee, As a Top Darts Poster Cool do you care to do the honours and open a thread. Lead baloon?

Cheers, RPM.
By:
redpaddy
When: 26 Dec 10 11:53
Deepest sympathy for your loss HH i am sure your Nan had a great innings,thanks for the analysis.I have some good news to share i became at Dad at 9.15 this morning just back from the hospital shattered but happy,baby girl calling her Elizabeth.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 26 Dec 10 11:57
Sorry to hear about yer nan mate.

Take care
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 26 Dec 10 11:57
Brilliant news redpaddy

well done mate
By:
redpaddy
When: 26 Dec 10 12:10
Thanks Step i am on cloud nine,i was watching the Aussie annihilation on my iphone during the night.
By:
stringerbell
When: 26 Dec 10 12:17
very sorry to hear your news hh, all the best
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 26 Dec 10 12:20
Congrats RP. Great news!

Hope the Darts world champs help pay for the next 20 years of funding your new born Grin

180!
By:
redpaddy
When: 26 Dec 10 12:25
Cheers Randle.
By:
happyhibee
When: 26 Dec 10 12:51
Congratulations Paddy thats great news mate Happy

Thanks for kind wishes doing this keeps me busy and to be honest there's only so much sitting around moping you can do. At least the action will keep me going as the funeral ain't going to be till the new year anyway.
By:
peckham flasher
When: 26 Dec 10 14:51
all top 16 won first round Shocked must be a few mug accas landedGrin
By:
redpaddy
When: 26 Dec 10 15:01
Happy thanks for the congrats mate.
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 26 Dec 10 15:34
Well done PF. Quite a stat that! Cool
By:
flan1987
When: 26 Dec 10 16:47
so sorry to hear bout your nan HH, great write up as usual
By:
peckham flasher
When: 26 Dec 10 18:42
yes i thought that aswell  randle [:D]
By:
richieboy44
When: 26 Dec 10 18:44
congrats to red paddy !!!

thanks for the excellent write up HH... death and any subsequent ceremony should be a celebration of that persons life ...a happy occassionBlush


I reckon we are seeing a changing of the guard in the dartsShocked ..I'm not saying the power wont win , but there comes a time in every great sporting career where winning doesn't come as easily as it used toSad ...and I think taylor at 50 is at that stage ,( and even money is not value for me ) with the likes of wade and whitlock snapping at his heals , the value for me , lies in the bottom half of the draw ...dutching wade and barney in the outrights looks superb value ( especially if taylor departs ) and I have backed accordingly[;)]

GL with ur bets everyone ...looking forward to some intense arrows over the next week or so !!!
By:
peckham flasher
When: 26 Dec 10 18:53
cant believe baxter not fav in 180s market 2t1 at coralsShocked
By:
Coventry.No.1
When: 26 Dec 10 19:12
grt write up HH, and sorry for the sad news.

Congrats RP, my daughter is too Elizabeth shes now 7!
By:
Howdi
When: 26 Dec 10 23:45
well done hh thoughts with u
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 26 Dec 10 23:56
Baxter totally underestimated by the bookies.

Cov No1. Are you the 'Muffin Man' lol ?
See you @ Cov Bishopsgate Club x-mas Darts Comp tomorrow (tues) [;)]
By:
ScottishRebel
When: 27 Dec 10 01:07
Done my work for Monday's matches, too.

Loving Thornton's price, think it's absolutely mental considering Hamilton was throwing pub darts for half the match and it looked like something was wrong, especially as a powerful scorer like him didn't even hit on max.

Think Baxter and Webster should crush the 180s line, same with Bingo and Flash.  And I agree with a value punt on Hylton and I think Nicholson is an unbelievable price on the handicap.  Could even see a 4-0 if Wright plays to form.

Will drop you a line at some point, Scotty. The missus is right cut up for you, as well as me, mate.  Both of us send our love and best wishes.
By:
Lori
When: 27 Dec 10 01:11
Sorry to hear the bad news HH.

Thanks for the post as always.
By:
Lori
When: 27 Dec 10 01:12
Congrats RedPaddy sir.

Also, all you Cov people make me miss the dump!
By:
Coventry.No.1
When: 27 Dec 10 08:31
RP- Yeah i do like a bit of 'muffin' LOL, so are you playing in that comp?

Lori- Where are you based now? I live in Blackpool, but hate the place.Im back in Cov every chance i get and would move back today if i could.
By:
sammybizzle
When: 27 Dec 10 09:10
could someone please explain the plus 1.5 handicap...So if baxter wins today and I did the plus 1.5 for baxter, would that win too?

I can't decide whether to do the -2.5 for Nicholson, 1.5 for baxter or the over 8 180's in that match

Thanks for help
By:
happyhibee
When: 27 Dec 10 09:27
Sammy if you back Baxter +1.5 he has to get 3 sets or win the match for the bet to cop mate.

Cheers folks and especially Mr Rebel. Sure I will see your chunky good looks in due course Laugh
By:
sammybizzle
When: 27 Dec 10 09:33
o ok..and the -2.5 handicap for nicholson means he has to win by 2 legs?
By:
happyhibee
When: 27 Dec 10 09:34
2 sets mate. If you back him -2.5 he has to win 4-0 or 4-1 for the bet to win
By:
sammybizzle
When: 27 Dec 10 09:52
haha you can tell my level of darts betting lol

So best of 9 now hmm..5/6 for -2.5 seems suspect to me...Maybe I am wrong but more tempted with baxter getting to 3 sets...
By:
ScottishRebel
When: 27 Dec 10 10:12
HH, you got Wright's average right there?  Planet Darts have it as 86.76. Not that I think it makes much of a difference in relation to the match, mind you.
By:
happyhibee
When: 27 Dec 10 10:15
was 80.76 when they first published the scores after the match mate
By:
Danno
When: 27 Dec 10 10:19
sorry to hear that news HH, and congrats to Paddy.

Been debating for a couple of days about a big bet on Taylor.  But can't decide whether the 2.12 is the back of the century or the lay of the century!!!
Probably means the market has the price about right I suppose.   Tempted to back him, because a straightforward win again Laursen with a big average will surely see his price go to odds on.
By:
The Wall
When: 27 Dec 10 10:40
Nicholson on the handicap is the only big fancy I have today.

There might be a bit of value on Thornton as that was the worst I've seen Hamilton play on TV.  He is usually pretty consistent though so might just be a one off.  I'll give this one a bit more thought before I decide what to do.

Lloyd has problems getting over the line on TV these days so I will be happy to lay him if he gets off to a flyer and goes a couple of sets up.
By:
Lori
When: 27 Dec 10 10:57
I'm down near MK now Cov. Bit of a bleedin' difference, horrible.

Odd think is, I always thought Cov was a toilet, but turns out it wasn't that bad.
By:
tiny dave
When: 27 Dec 10 11:13
sorry to hear the sad news HH

darts - baxter to big of price, he usually takes out one of the 2nd tier darts players in competitions who could actually give taylor a game then baxter flunks in the next round

so expect 4-3 baxter, then him get dicked on next round
By:
scarecrow
When: 27 Dec 10 11:23
i think baxter is a big price but the thought of him having one of his off days and standing there with his inane grin on his face as he is getting gubbed is enough to stop me getting involved as i do not want to be seething as my money goes down the toilet over the xmas holidays.
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