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happyhibee
14 Dec 10 18:15
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 33,262 | Blogger: happyhibee's blog
Putting this up early in case theres any views from the regulars and I might not be around much anyway. This isn't sponsored by Starbets and certainly no spamming of any websites from these parts Blush

Paul Nicholson v Steve Farmer:
Opening match of the 2011 championships sees Special Agent Nicholson take on Steve Farmer. I thought Nicholson played really well at the World Cup but he has had a very indifferent year on the floor (So much so he isnt even going to defend his players championship title as he missed the top 32!). He takes on Farmer who I believe is making his debut here and is sitting at 55th on the Order of Merit list. Prices look about right to me and I'll be happy to watch and wait for far better chances later in the week.
Recommendation: No Bet

Gary Mawson v Juanito Gionzon:
First prelim of the tournament sees Mawson take on the unknown Gionzon. Mawson was a regular in the opening rounds but I think its an indication of his form and also the better strength in depth that hes now involved in the prelims. I confess to knowing absolutely nothing about his opponent and while Mawson should probably win I wouldn't rush to back him at 2/5 in a race to 6 given his year to date.
Recommendation: No Bet

Steve Beaton v Mark Hylton:
Beaton opens up his bid here against Hylton who sits at 90th on this years OOM. I've been very surprised by Beaton's last 12 months and he seems to have got some hunger and appetite for the game again. He says he's given up the **** and took up running and bizarre as it seems his game has improved as a result. He's also scoring a lot heavier than previous years and of the 3 figure prices in the outrights he is one of the livlier ones. His opponent Hylton came through qualifying and is making his tv debut. Judged on his year to date he's not been pulling up any trees on the floor either and I'd expect the Adonis to come through without too much trouble. 2/7 ain't my sort of price though and a watching brief is all I'll be having.
Recommendation: No Bet

Mark Webster v Steve Maish:
Interesting match up here between one of my favourite players Webster and one of my least favourite in Maish. Webby did a lot on here a favour when he won the lakeside (Cheers Callataxi Grin) and since then I've always had a soft spot for him. He's one of these players who you can tell losing actually hurts him and he's got a lot of talent in that left arm. He's also showing a lot better form based on his WC form and his run to the semis last year at this venue. Maish on the other hand is a player who seems to rate himself more than his results actually justify. He also seems to have so many excuses for every defeat and I really can't be bothered with any sportsman like that. Hoping that Webby can win this and have another good run but unfortunately he tends to make things difficult for himself all the time. Bet I actually like here is the maxes as Webster was battering them in the recent WC and if he's in half decent nick Maish can weigh in with 1 or 2 too. My thinking though is that I can see 4 sets or more here and as such the quote of 4.5 looks slightly on the low side.
Recommendation: 1pt win over 4.5 maxes @ Evs (PP)

Phil Taylor v Mawson/Gionzon:
Obviously no betting available until the opponent is known for Phil but either way I'd be very surprised if its not going to end in a comfy 3-0 win for him. I'm keen to oppose him in the outrights this year but I very much doubt this will be his banana skin of a match.

Summary: Just the 1 bet for the opening night and looking at the early matches this could be a common occurence. Think as the rounds progress the bets will definitely show up but the bookies are far more clued up on the early matches these days which means patience is the key Blush

All views and opinions welcome as ever and hopefully this is the start of a great 4 weeks of darts and some cracking banter as always Happy
HH

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By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 14 Dec 10 19:49
A most excellent write up as ever Hibee CoolCool

Not sure if this is the right thread to post in Hibee but your opening post was So good i couldn't resist! :->

...I'm interested and excited to see how the newcomers mentally cope/adapt/play, stepping out onto Darts biggest stage of all @ The World Darts Champs.

The Players Championship Order of Merit has given rise to a host of Hungry, Quality Players, and with it the possibility of the Big Time.

Steve Falmer and Mark Hylton are two such players and are no mugs. Both more than capable of putting up a good show.

Limited TV Experience being the key for all the newbies here.
Fingers crossed none of them bottle it, and give us a tournament to remember.

Good luck to all Darters, new and old, especially the Left Handers[;)] 
and the very best of luck to my big man and local hero Nigel HeydonLove Love Love
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 14 Dec 10 20:03
Farmer a bet at 7/2 imho
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 10 20:13
Think Heydon is a bet v Thornton later in week mate to be honest
By:
wimderon
When: 14 Dec 10 20:19
Shepherd replaces Modra.
By:
gretna
When: 14 Dec 10 20:52
heydon's throwing style will gain him forum hall of fame status! i agree i will looking to take thornton on in some capacity.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 14 Dec 10 20:55
Great write up hh

Really looking forward to next few weeks darts

Actually prefer the first couple of rounds to the business ends
By:
E
When: 14 Dec 10 21:22
When i looked the other day i was surprised to see Farmer 4/1.It looked fair value but i can't get anything on with crybet.7/2 is still not a bad price to chance as Farmer has been in decent form and Nicholson is often quite beatable.
By:
franko180
When: 14 Dec 10 22:40
I prefer the 8/13 +2.5 on Farmer.
By:
bigphatairyarse
When: 14 Dec 10 23:01
Farmer's first big run came in the 2006 Winmau World Masters, reaching the semi-finals with wins over Tony Eccles, Michael Rosenauer and John Walton before losing 6-0 in sets to Martin Adams. He then reached the final of the 2007 British Classic, losing to Co Stompé. He was then part of the England team in the 2007 WDF World Cup, reaching the Quarter-Finals of the Men's Singles event and helping England to victory in the Team Event.

Farmer qualified for the 2008 BDO World Darts Championship outright but lost in the first round to England team-mate Tony O'Shea. Farmer though was unable to maintain his form from the previous year and was forced to qualify for the 2009 BDO World Darts Championship and lost in the early qualifying rounds. He did though reached the quarter finals of the 2008 World Masters, qualifying for the last 16 where he beat Gary Robson before losing to Martin Adams.

In 2010, Farmer switched to the PDC. On September 4, he reached his first PDC ProTour event final in Crawley, losing to Adrian Lewis 6-4 in the final. Two weeks later, on September 19, he won his first career title: the Dutch Players Championship by beating Kevin Painter 6-4 in the final. This win meant that Farmer qualified for his first PDC major, the 2010 World Grand Prix. He lost in the first round against Steve Brown by 2 sets to 1.

7/2 MASSIVE v Nicholson imo

CHARGE........................!!!!!!!!!

Happy
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 15 Dec 10 04:09
Cannot argue with that BFHA. Nicholson's amongst a pool of Darters who throw hot and cold and 1/6 is way off. CHARGE Indeed! lol
Gearing up to be a great Worlds.

Liking the quote Gretna re Heydon Love
By:
ihatehwb
When: 15 Dec 10 17:52
The Farmer v Nicholson match is one of those that irritate me.  On overall form from this year Farmer is a very good bet at the prices.  I actually backed him for that 2008 BDO World Champs as he does have mid 90 averages in him.  For those who don't follow floor events he has recently beaten Hamilton 6-1, and did beat Baxter and indeed Nicholson on the way to winning in Holland.

HOWEVER he has shown nothing on tv and until he does the current prices are probably pretty accurate.  I also looked at the 8-13 +2.5 but there is every chance he'll play like a clown and average 75 without winning a leg.

It looks a good bet probably won't be.
By:
richieboy44
When: 15 Dec 10 19:19
thanx for the analysis HH ,

I've gone for the value in the bottom half of the draw.... Wade 8/1 E/W half odds 1,2 (generally available in the high street )is just begging to be backed ... 5.0 to reach the final is awsome ... with Taylor in the top half this looks like a clear run for the machine ...of course it can happen that he doesn't make the final , but you can back each opponent on here to get ur original stake back and still end up with nice profit...

incidentally,for non-sky subscribers,  does anyone know a reliable stream to watch the arrows >?? I see that Ladbrokes TV aren't scheduling it this year >??
By:
happyhibee
When: 15 Dec 10 19:28
Outrights I've backed Wade, Lewis (I truly am a mug) and thrown shrapnel at McDine
By:
ScottishRebel
When: 15 Dec 10 20:51
Farmer is a small wager for me, as well as Beaton/Hylton over 116.5 highest out at BSq.

As for players at fancy prices in the outright, Pipe, Painter and Thornton, because I truly am a bigger mug than HH.
By:
ihatehwb
When: 15 Dec 10 21:17
HH your McDine bet.....  He is a complete and utter loser and his head will go down if he loses the first leg.  Then he'll lose the 2nd leg and he'll start laughing as if he doesn't care. 

HOWEVER I very much like the bet.  Importantly he has a good draw.  He has shown tiny bits of form in floor events and probably like you HH there is still the 2007 form in the back of my mind that suggests he can mix with and beat the best players in the world.  I am sure it will happen for him one day when he stops being a pr**k.
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 15 Dec 10 21:28
I still can't concentrate on any of the matches as i've got that bloody Heydon Love on the brain.

Backed him to win his Quarter @ 200/1.
More blind faith as i've also backed him to win outright @ 1000/1. Laugh

I did joke down our local about having £10k on him @ 5/4 to score under 1.5 180's v Thornton but as he's peppering the lipstick so much it looks a given he'll score over 1.5 180's @ 4/7.


As Hibee would say...No Bet! Grin
By:
Alf Hartigan
When: 15 Dec 10 22:32
Good stuff lads.   Keep it coming.   I too am backing Wade on the outright ew and laying him each match but putting a bet back in at twice the lay.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 16 Dec 10 03:35
both webster and whitlock looked very good in sunderland last week
By:
gazovic
When: 16 Dec 10 06:22
Looking forward to your posts HH. aw the best mate.

Perhaps some valoo in Webster 11/2 (Slybet) the days most 180s?

Elsewhere, I quite like 100/30 Lewis to win his 1/4 (Unsporting)

Be lucky everyone
By:
snooker1
When: 16 Dec 10 10:15
paul nicholson knows he is in 4 a reel battle tonight and he knows that farmer is a reel talent this will be a very very close encounter and at the prices farmer has to be a bet id say nicholsaons right price is 1-2.......match of the night this and the stage and big crowd wont phase farmer 1 bit not saying farmer will beat nicholson but the prices r way out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By:
Hollow
When: 16 Dec 10 11:06
I think the odds on a 9darter represent decent value. There's been one in the 2009 and 2008 tournies and in long format tournies in general the 9dart strike rate is very high. At 2.7ish its a bet for me!
By:
the silverback
When: 16 Dec 10 12:03
Don't quite understand the obsession with Steve Farmer. Looked very average in Dublin but I guess TV experience will do him good. I know he's had a couple of massive floor results but I've seen more than enough good floor players fail to deliver on TV to not get carried away here. But I'm more than happy to be proved wrong as, either way, the +2.5 handicap prices in the 8-13 / 4-6 region are wrong and I'm on. 3-1 most 180s seems generous as well on the limited stats I have on Farmer which will mainly be from when he was a worse player than his current standard.

Have taken another +2.5 as well. Maish v Webster at 5-6. Yep, Webster looks in great nick and he was outstanding at Ally Pally last year. Which are precisely the reasons why Maish is value on the handicap. Just value, nothing else.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 16 Dec 10 12:58
Could be another hike up the hill in the snow this year looking at the forecast
By:
Lumberg
When: 16 Dec 10 14:21
2 small bets for me on most 180s markets:

Nicholson v Farmer - tie most 180s 5/1 PP
Webster v Maish - tie most 180s 5/1 Lads

Think about a quarter of the 1st rd games last year ended in 180s ties and the players in both these matches are fairly closely match on their 180 hitting ability
By:
callataxi
When: 16 Dec 10 16:04
not picking holes hh, but hylton played 3 matches in the grand slam so its not his tv debut.

he doesnt have the prettiest of actions and looks like it could go wrong easily, however he has

had a very solid year on the floor and beaten/run close many of the top names.  beaton was superb

in the grand slam and really dont see hylton getting close.

farmer has really had a very good second half to the pro tour and a lay of nicholson at around 1.28

is not the worst bet you will have this year.
By:
MC Roller
When: 16 Dec 10 16:27
Looking forward to it, but no bets placed as I've lost all enthusiasm for betting. I also made a fool of myself last year thinking Lewis could beat Taylor. Mind you, Taylor was inspired during the early stages of that match if I remember correctly.

I hope Anderson has a good run.

Good luck all. Cool
By:
happyhibee
When: 16 Dec 10 16:42
Calla meant to put World Champs debut for Hylton but it was factually incorrect mate Sad
I aint having farmer he might win but I thought Nicho played really well at the pairs and fancy he might win cosy tonite.

As for McDine he has so much talent but hes a waster. Just the nagging doubt is that anybody with his ability should never be 700+. Shepherd got to a final and he aint got a tenth of McDine's talent. Its just his attitude that stinks
By:
Randle P. McMurphy
When: 16 Dec 10 17:15
The attitude with a lot of the top pro's gets my goat!
Too much easy money too soon has obviously affected their desire to succeed. Not enough drive and ambition unlike Mr Taylor who thrives on it.

Beaton's back to his brilliant best so gonna be extremely tough for Hylton to crack. He's more than capable though. Let's hope he can push Adonis all the way.


Be interesting to see how the big names fair in the first round as the pressure's really on in the opener.

I'd love to stay and chat a bit more but i'm out with Heydon Love @ Warwickshire Gold Cup Singles tonight.

Looking forward to catching up with the Muffin Man too. Cool

That's quite enough name dropping for one night....yours truly Mr Taylor Laugh


GOOD LUCK ALL WITH YOUR BETS TONIGHT! Grin Grin

Hope we get the best Worlds Champs yet.

Randle [;)]
By:
Commodus
When: 16 Dec 10 17:16
No bet, no bet, no bet Laugh
By:
alun2005
When: 16 Dec 10 17:16
Thanks for trying to get some action going Hib for the World Champs. I fear this Forum will be a far cry from the halcyon days of yore, when wise old heads mixed with the johnny-come-lately SEETHERS in one glorious degenerate party !

I think it is very good of you to try and put in some time on the previews, as I know you have other matters occupying your thoughts at present, which I hope are less difficult than when we were last in touch.

Is there also any truth in the rumours I saw on Wikileaks that you are mounting a brave, lone, one-man stand against that nice American property developer bloke, Donald somebody-or-the-other, from opening a Bingo club ('The Great Bingo Dunes of Scotland' or something) in Auchtermuchty ?

So what if Donald hasn't actually developed the plans yet, or made a planning request, or even thought about it, I think you are doing the right thing my friend, and will stand shoulder to shoulder with you, admittedly from 500 miles away.
By:
peckham flasher
When: 16 Dec 10 17:19
Cool
By:
happyhibee
When: 16 Dec 10 17:19
I'll take Trump on and send him back to his ranch Alun Laugh

Things been better but this takes my mind off things for a while. Hopefully things will improve but you never know
By:
Randle
When: 16 Dec 10 17:27
ARE YOU READY

LET'S PLAY DARTS
By:
alun2005
When: 16 Dec 10 17:28
Will be hoping for better news anyway Hib.
By:
happyhibee
When: 16 Dec 10 17:30
yeah me too mate
By:
scarecrow
When: 16 Dec 10 17:51
i cannot wait for secret spy to silence the thousands of crafty cockney clones in the ally pally Grin
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 16 Dec 10 17:56
Cool
By:
peckham flasher
When: 16 Dec 10 18:00
Cool
By:
the silverback
When: 16 Dec 10 18:02
Why the f*** do they zoom over Canary Wharf to set the scene?
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