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Value selections and general musings

Bet 2 Season 2013-4

24 Aug 13 16:59
Well, the wrong Arsenal (or Fulham) turned up. A set back, but not the end of the world.

Bet 2: Lay Liverpool at Aston Villa 7.5 points to win 8.4.
Reasoning pretty much the same here - Liverpool not a bad team, but nor are Villa and odds on the away win is generous from a layers perspective (and lower than was on offer in the high street this morning, judging by the RP table today). So, a lay it is.

GLA - follow the dog Cool
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Bet 1 - Season 2013/4

24 Aug 13 12:45
Back for a new season after last season rather tailed off into the red.

Again, bets rated on a scale of 1-10 points.

First bet: Lay Arsenal at 1.91 away to Fulham - 7.5 points (to win 8.2).

Taking on the inconsistent Gunners at Fulham. They lost at home to Villa last weekend, and then won away in Turkey mid week. Still not convinced by the present line up, and they have quite  few injuries - Koscielny (suspended), Vermaelen, Diaby, Oxlade Chamberlain and Arteta. The mid week trip is also a negative. Fulham have spent a bit of money - the acquisitions of Parker and Bent look shrewd; they will not be easy to beat at home. So the Gunners at sub 1/1 are a strong lay.

GLA - follow the dog 8) 
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Saturday 6 April 2013

06 Apr 13 12:22
Sel: 7/19 (Max 0/1), P&L: -30, ROI:-0.239 (93.8-123.3/123.3)

Well, the losing run last Saturday was disappointing, but there we go. Form it temporary, class is permanent - or that's what I am telling myself right now. Let's see how we go on today. We have a maximum ...


Lay Southampton at 2.18 (for 8.5 points to lose 10pts) at Reading

I am really surprised to see Southampton (2-5-8 away) at such a short price on here. At 12th they are 8 places higher (and 11 points better off) than the basement occupants Reading. But Reading are 4-6-5 at home and quite tough to beat there; it is principally their dismal away form (1-2-13) that has cut them so far adrift. The betfair price implies that Southampton should be 11-10 or shorter with the layers, but that is shorter than most of the tissues and although they are arguably favourites for this match, I think the current price considerably overrates their chances.

I can't get too excited about any other prices today - thought about putting up Wolves at 3/1 at Bolton, or Wednesday at 6/5 at home to dismal Blackburn, but not enough in the stats to justify the prices being anything other than fair.

Good luck with the bets today.

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Saturday 30 March 2013

30 Mar 13 13:24
Sel: 7/16 (Max 0/1), P&L: -11.8, ROI: -0.107 (93.8-105.1/105.1)

Well, back after the international break and looking to bounce back after the disappointments of 17 March. As you will see, we are going back to the well on Sunderland and Wigan .... Plain

Lay Man Utd for 7pts (to lose 5pts) at 1.72 at Sunderland
You could be forgiven for thinking that I would lack enthusiasm for taking the reds on at Sunderland after the disappointing outcome when I last placed any faith in Sunderland (to beat Norwich), and of course I accept that United are carrying all before them this season. Although United are 10-2-2 away, it is likely they will field a somewhat weakened line up in light of the fact that they have a FA Cup replay at Stamford Bridge on Monday, given that they effectively have the league tied up (15 points clear with 9 games to play) and given that they are out of the Champions league (the FA Cup therefore assuming increased importance to them). Sunderland are 4-6-5 at home and therefore avoid defeat in the majority of their matches at home. There is a bit of talk about the Mackems celebrations after United lost the title there last season (and there is another pointer - if they had been able to win that game they would have been champions), but I don't really see that making much different to the fact that Sunderland need the points from this game much more than United. True it is that Sunderland have injury worries of their own (no Fletcher and possibly no Sessegnon), but the absence of "Clattermole" is not necessarily a negative and I think they will have enough to steal at least a point.

Lay Wigan for 8pts (to lose 7.7pts) at home to Norwich
As previously noted, Wigan do not have a strong record at home (now 3-4-8) and, truth be told, they were pretty poor against Newcastle. Norwich are 1-7-7 away from home, so not one to put the mortgage on, but worth noting that they have avoided defeat in 8/15 away games - just over 50%. That includes many tougher assignments than a trip to the JJB and a lay of the home team is a clear value play.

I have nearly been drawn into a lay of West Ham at home to West Brom (at 2.24), but on reflection that is probably a fair price - and the sort of price I would have expected about Wigan.


Lay Hull for 4pts (to lose 5.5pts) at Huddersfield.
The evening Championship game sees Hull travel to Huddersfield. The Championship results were all over the shop yesterday, with Watford only drawing with Burnley at home and Palace losing 0-4 at home to Birmingham. I expect the "squeaky bum" season to continue tonight. Hull have a very creditable 9-3-7 record away from home and remain second behind Cardiff, whereas the Terriers are 18th, five points clear of the relegation zone. They are no pushovers at home though (6-8-5) and I think the odds are presently a bit dismissive from an East Yorkshire perspective. I would have Hull at 2.7, so it is another lay at the present price.

Happy Easter and good luck to all with your bets today.

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Sunday 17 March 2013 Part 2

17 Mar 13 14:48
Results to date as per previous post.

A north-eastern bias to the live coverage today, with Sunderland at home to Norwich followed by Newcastle away to Wigan. As per my previous post, Sunderland 4-5-5 at home had to be backed to beat 1-6-7 away from home Norwich.

Lay Wigan to beat Newcastle for 6pts at 2.32 (liability 8pts)

Although boosted by their very creditable win at Everton in the FA Cup last week, Wigan remain in some difficulties in the relegation zone in the Premier League. They are 18th, on 24 points and even a win today will leave them three points adrift of safety after Villa's win yesterday. They are 2-4-8 at home, so it is quite hard to see how they could be as short as 13/10 to win at home against a team in their division. Newcastle have been poor on the road this season, and have a 1-5-8 record. Although, as previously noted, they have strengthened (and improved) considerably this year, a 5/2 quote does not exactly get the pulse racing. However, they have avoided defeat away in 6 out of their 14 league games (42%) and that has included many tougher assignments than this. They did play in Europe (at home) on Thursday, but Gouffran and Debuchy at least did not play (due to ineligibility).

Good luck with the bets today.

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Sunday 17 March 2013 Part 1

17 Mar 13 14:25
Sel: 7/14 (Max 0/1), P/L: +1.2, ROI: 0.02 (93.8-92.1/92.1)

Sorry, no time for a write up on the first game of the day.

5pts win on Sunderland to beat Norwich at 2.06

Good luk all - follow the Dog Cool
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Saturday 16 March 2013

16 Mar 13 10:49
Selections : 5/11, Max: 0/1, P/L: -10.3, ROI: -0.14 (63.8-74.1/74.1)

Well, cleared out in a fairly major way on Tuesday. To be honest, I have found Tuesday night results (particularly in the Championship) very disappointing for me for quite a long time now - it is as if form seems to go completely out of the window. Irritatingly this often involves me getting suckered into a price which (I think) represents value and losing heavily. Sad I will try to reduce midweek stakes for a bit.


Three bets today.

Lay Manchester City for 7 pts at 2.14 at Everton (liability 8pts)

Man City resume the chase of Manchester United with a tricky away game at Goodison Park.Everton (7-6-1 at home and 7th in the league on 45 points) were shocked 0-3 at home to Wigan in the FA Cup last weekend and I suspect that there is an element of that in the prices for this match. City are 2nd in league, on 59 points, and 7-5-2 away from home. Agreed that Everton will miss their first pick goalie Howard (and CB Jagielka), but City also miss Aguero, who I think is a big player for them. There is no doubt that City are, on the figures, a better team than Everton and the more likely winners, but I think 2.14 is too short. Maybe something like 2.5 would be a more realistic price. As the stats show, the draw is also a big runner here.  So, at the odds, a lay of the visitors is a low risk play.

Back Nottingham Forest for 4 pts at 3.75 at Hull

For this and for the next bet, we are following momentum teams. Like a filly hitting top form in the autumn, the history books are full of teams mounting a late charge into the promotion picture in the Championship, usually after a change of manager (Reading last year, although more a change of owner than of manager in that case ...). Since the (re) appointment of Billy Davies, Forest have been flying and since their last defeat on 9 February they are 5-1-0, with the only blip being a 1-1 draw with Bolton (as to which, see below). Their away form figures are 5-7-6 and they lie 6th in the league with 57 points. Hull are 12-2-4 at home and lie second in the table with 68 points, under the much respected (by me) stewardship of Steve Bruce. As can be seen, they have been strong at home, but they did suffer a 2-4 reverse at Crystal Palace recently. On the bare form the prices look slightly skewed in favour of the value lying with Hull, but on this occasion I am persuaded by recent forms that the teams will be pretty closely matched and, as such, I think that 3.75 about the away team represents a shade of value.

Back Bolton for 6pts at 2.92 at Ipswich

Bolton lie 8th in the table, away form 3-7-8 with 54 points. Ipswich are 20th in the table with home form of 6-5-7, with 43 points. Armed with that information, you might well ask if I need my head looking at for putting up this bet. However, both teams have changed managers since the start of the season, and although Mick McCarthy is turning things around at Ipswich, it seems that Dougie Freedman is moving rather more quickly at Bolton. Since 2 February they have played 9 games and have a record of 6-2-1, with the only defeat being in the first of the nine games, 2-1 at Watford (over the same period, Ipswich are 3-2-3). Quite a few bookies are 6-4 Bolton, and I wouldn't want to lay more than that. In my book, the current price is a clear back.

Good luck with your bets today.

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Tuesday 12 March 2013

12 Mar 13 18:23
Selections: 5/9, P/L +7.7pts, ROI: 0.137 (63.8-56.1/56.1)

A couple of strong bets tonight:

Cardiff to beat Leicester 10pts (max bet) at 2.3

Cardiff are 1st in the Championship, with 71 points and have a home record of 13-2-2. Leicester are 5th, 13 points back with an away record of 5-4-8. I have already referred to the Foxes poor form on the road this season in this blog (and profited from it !). There is no good reason (that I can see) for Cardiff being substantially above evens. So, it's time for a maximum.

Leeds to beat Peterborough 8pts at 1.78

Leeds are 10th, 51 points, with home form of 11-2-4; Peterborough are 23rd with 38 points and away form of 6-1-10. Although Posh have improved markedly since the start of the season, a trip to Elland Road is a tough test and the price of 4/5 for the home win looks a little on the generous side to me. Not quite generous enough for a maximum (although Hills advertised 10/11 first thing, which would have been). I doubt that will still be standing after the rush of Cheltenham good things today, but am checking this out...

Good luck to all with their bets tonight !

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Sunday 10 March

10 Mar 13 14:08
Recs : 4/8, P/L : 10.3pts, ROI : +0.22 (56.5 - 46.2 / 46.2)



Well, a good day yesterday, let's see if we can move the profit / loss column further in the right direction today. I was a bit surprised to see Millwall so short (2.44) at home to Blackburn in the Cup, but on reflection it is not an obviously wrong price. I am not sure that form translates as literally for Cup matches anyway, so I have decided to leave that and the Man Utd / Chelsea games alone. I am quite tempted by a back of Man Utd, and would probably punt at the price if this were a league match, but it's not. A more topical fun bet for those watching the match (I can't) might be a few quid on a red card @ 3.95. I am sure the OT crowd will be howling for one at every opportunity and it would not surprise me one bit to see one brandished. That said, I think Howard Webb is a good ref, so if there is one, I am sure it will be justified !

On the the real business of the day.

Newcastle to beat Stoke 4 points at 1.82

As previously noted in this blog, I follow Newcastle, and again, I note they are playing after a 0-0 draw in Russia on Thursday. However, they have players who did not make the trip to come in such as Debuchy, Santon, Gouffran and Cisse and the return to fitness of Hatem Ben Arfa is a big plus. They are 7-1-6 at home and, would generally be regarded as more likely than not (i.e.. sub evens) to win this game. When allied to the fact that they are playing Stoke, who are 1-6-7 for the season away from home and missing Robert Huth, I think 1.82 is a fair price to back at. Mind you, Stoke have already let me down once on this blog, by failing to beat West Ham (which in my book is poor form), so just a small back here. It will be interesting to see whether Michael Owen plays any part for Stoke. He will certainly get a hostile response from the boot boys, and sad to say, he must be shorter odds to pick up an injury than a goal !

Lay Liverpool to beat Spurs at 1.93 - lay of 6.4 points, liability 5.9.


A fairly obvious bet this, to me anyway. Spurs are third 8-2-4 away, Liverpool are 12 points and five places lower, with a home record of 7-3-4. Both teams are in good form and each has a talismanic figure - Suarez and Bale. How then is it that one is available to lay at 1.93 and the other at 4.4 ? True it is that Liverpool are at home and that Spurs had a home match in Europe on Thursday (beating Inter Milan 3-0), but even that I would only expect to result in something like home win at 2.4, away win at 3.7. I have plumped for a Liverpool lay rather than a Spurs win, as that is more in line with my betting style and because I think the draw is also a real runner here. As is almost invariably the case, Liverpool have been underpriced by the market here. You would certainly need deep pockets to consider backing them week in and out at odds on at home to teams above them (and, in the top four) in the league.

Good luck to all with their wagers today - if you have a good day, get out there and splash out on your Mum, you know she's worth it Love

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Saturday 9 March 2013

09 Mar 13 11:37
Recs: 1/5, P/L -15.2 pts, ROI: -0.57 (11.3-26.5/26.5)

Ok, well not on a good run. Cry. Actually the Man Utd and Villa bets, were I think in the right direction but unlucky losers. Putting three up today - one sllghtly against my better judgment, but there we go.

QPR to beat Sunderland 5pts at 2.4

Yes, this is the most doubtful of the three. That is the same QPR who have won one of their 14 home games this season, against a team unbeaten in their last five visits to Loftus Road. However, like it or not (not) money does talk and Harry does seem to have an amazing ability to get chairmen to splash out huge sums of cash on players to enable him to perform rescue missions. In the long term it has not done Southampton or Portsmouth much good, but Tony Fernandes is not looking beyond next season, for good reason, given the influx of Sky money. The new players do appear to be gelling and making a difference - witness last week's win at Southampton and a gallant performance at home to Man Utd the week before that. Sunderland are in a poor run of form, 3-4-7 away from home, and I have more than a suspicion they could yet be dragged into trouble - Larrson and Sessegnon are not consistent enough and I am not sure Martin O'Neill has really got inside the heads of the players to the extent he has in previous jobs. 

Villa to beat Reading 5 pts at 2.9
Another slightly dubious bet on the stats, Villa (2-5-7) to win at Reading (4-6-4), but again, I think these are clubs going in different directions. Villa have played well without reward in recent games, whereas Reading have regressed and, importantly for this bet, miss the goal threat of Kebe and Pogrebnyak today. I just don't think that Reading will have the necessary answers to Benteke, Agbonlahor and Weimann, all of whom are unquestionably Premiership players.

Lay Bournemouth to beat Doncaster at 2.08 (9 pts, liability 9.7pts)

The wheels have fallen slightly off the Eddie Howe bandwagon over the last couple of weeks - they are 9-6-3 at home (and 7th in the league) at home to Doncaster who are 11-4-3 away from home and top of the league with seven points more than Bournemouth. I would have the Cherries at closer to 6/4 on form figures alone. Doncaster are also not a bad bet at 4.3 on here, but given my current dismal form I have passed that over. Watch it come in now.

Good luck to all with their bets today.

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