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marychain1
31 Aug 15 16:43
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
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Stage 11  »  Andorra la Vella  ›  Cortals d´Encamp   (138k)

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Difficult to know how to preview this stage except to say that this is a simply astonishing amount of climbing. Coming after the rest day, this short brutal stage, that Joaquin Rodriguez helped plan, will go a massive way towards deciding this Vuelta. The forecast is for bad weather, but even if the weather is fair this will be very hard. There is more than 5,000m of climbing on this day that sees the peleton take on 1x Cat 2, 4 x Cat 1s and an ESP climb.

There are 3 Cat 1 climbs in the first 70kms, with the Collada de Beixalis, the Coll d'Ordino & the Coll de la Rabassa. The Beixalis is 6.5kms at nearly 10% with 3kms in the middle at over 12%. The Ordino and Rabassa are longer, steadier climbs at 9kms and 13kms. The Ordino rarely drops below 7% but has a maximum gradient of 8.5%. The Rabassa has some steeper slopes of around 11% and 12% but it gets easier towards the summit. At the top of this climb the riders are about at the halfway stage, and already most of the domestiques will be out the back door.

The ESP climb Gallina is an extraordinarily difficult climb. It has over 1,000m of climbing and averages over 8.5% over 12km with ramps up to 18%. This road has been newly resurfaced but it is still a horrible climb and will see all but the specialist climbers in real difficulty. It will be very interesting to see how riders like Tom Dumoulin compete on this test. If he can remain with the big big favourites he can become a genuine Grand Tour contender.

After the Gallina, there is a long descent, the Cat 2 Alto de la Comelia which is 4kkm at over 9% but which will seem like a walk in the park in comparison to some of the other climbs today. The final climb, the Alto Els Cortals d'Encamp is another horrendously steep climb. Anyone that is struggling at this stage will not be recovering on this tremendous finale. It is nearly 9km long, and has 800m over vertical gain and averages 9.3%. However, the average belies the difficulty of this climb. The first 4km average almost 11%. Even when the gradient drops off in the final 5km it is still 8%.

Needless to say, this stage will be won by a tremendous climber, which bring people like Froome and Quintana to the front of all calculations. Aru, Rodriguez and Majka would also be contenders for this stage. Its difficult to know whether a break could win this stage. It is conceivable that all the contenders out of teammates well before the final climb and in this case we might not see the mountain trains that can sometimes bring a breakaway back. In this instance, decent climbers like Mikel Landa who are already out of the GC picture could win this stage.
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Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 2:53 PM BST
Yes SP if Landa gets 6 mins they wont catch him and he is just starting to work on the front for the first time so he must be starting to fancy this, whether he does have the legs though is another thing!
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 2:55 PM BST
He has gone up the road, Landa, break attacking itself to bridge across.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 2:56 PM BST
Yep, definitely feeling it, is Landa, but SKY keeping this at 4.30 mins so it is still with the peloton -- granted!
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 2:57 PM BST
Hi gang, looks like fun and games this
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 2:57 PM BST
Break as one, again, Erviti out alone, still.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 2:58 PM BST
Gallina next isn't it?

Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 2:59 PM BST
Shocked
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 3:05 PM BST
Have a feeling Dumoulin may suffer on the Gallina has been riding near the back mostly so far so is perhaps expecting to be dropped today. Despite Landa trying to inject pace on the break the gap has been rock solid at 3m 30 ( 4m 30 to leader). Should start to see some real action on this climb.
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:05 PM BST
here comes abit of rain
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:10 PM BST
Erviti all over the shop on the descent -- caught by the breakaway. Still think the GC principals will leave it alone until d'Encamp. 4mins definitely not enough for Landa. Spits here and there shouldn't be a concern.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 3:12 PM BST
Still got to fancy the peleton at this stage imo, has been slow enough that the teams have plenty of firepower left
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:15 PM BST
If we could get accurate GPS sectionals in terms of speed and time gaps between a rider in the break and a rider in the GC peloton, like what they were trying to do in the Tour, then we could clean up on these types of questions.

If it's with the GC riders than the best bet is to request better value bids in a hostile market on the top contenders, or lay Landa into 14.
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:18 PM BST
i wouldnt back Landa or anyone in the break personally. I think there is more chance of Landa picking up a attack from Aru and working for him then Landa winning the stage himself
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:21 PM BST
SKY going pretty hard here, unbuckled the front a little in places. Gap at 4.40 -- not enough still, I don't think.
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 3:23 PM BST
The gap starting to grow a little but we should know more in the next 20 mins as they get serious on this climb. Looking at Landa i don't think he is looking that comfortable, thinking he just isn't in the form he was at the giro.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:23 PM BST
There went the Landa 14s!!
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 3:24 PM BST
Anyone ever been to Andorra?
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:28 PM BST
Roman Sicard is the virtual race leader at this point lol
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 3:31 PM BST
Are the GC boys thinking about the stage win here? How much time gap does Landa et al need at the bottom of the final climb?
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 3:33 PM BST
Looks like the breakaway is down to 8 riders. If they can work together to the bottom of the last climb they have a good chance imo. Anyone seen Landa do any work yet?
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:34 PM BST
Landa looked pretty fresh from the start, was riding smart to initially not get involved with those false attacks a little earlier, which has since developed into a breakaway selection including Landa, who bridged across when realizing it was a legitimate move. 5.30 mins is enough for Landa, I think.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:35 PM BST
Landa clear!
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:35 PM BST
not sure on the time gap. youd think 5-6 minutes may be enough but who knows. not showing too much of the front group. rain could still play a part
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 3:37 PM BST
Now this is interesting, astana send a man to the fron of the peleton and at the same time Landa attacks the break going clear. Not sure what they are thinking here?? For Aru or landa?
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 3:39 PM BST
Froome gone, dead down the drain
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:40 PM BST
Gap to grow in favour of Landa I think as the peloton tiptoe down the descent. 5s will become 3s or less.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 3:41 PM BST
We saw it in Romandie with his yo-yoing MC.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 3:46 PM BST
Hope this break of 5 makes it all the way, I've got Atapuma at 104/1 average on BF and Landa 40/1 each way.
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:48 PM BST
Froome is going backwards in a hurry even with Thomas and Cataldo in company
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:53 PM BST
few coines on Nieve
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 3:53 PM BST
Problem for the GC guys now (in terms of catching the break and winning the stage) is that the lead group is getting much smaller, especially with Sky not there on the front.

I'm happy sitting on my Landa and Atapuma bets and keeping my fingers crossed (also got Pozzovivo if the GC group gets back in) but if I was making another play I think I would back the break here.
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 3:54 PM BST
Have added Nieve at 100/1 here and Atapuma 16/1.
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:54 PM BST
no idea why i said Cataldo was with Froome. not even the right team :s
Report broomo83 September 2, 2015 3:58 PM BST
Froome was clearly in trouble.... Can't believe Sky dropped all their men back for him. They should have have just changed plan and backed nieve or roache. Not happy that roache dropped back to try and help him :( (as a backer of roache)
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 3:58 PM BST
was that Ruben Plaza in the front group ?
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:06 PM BST
Oliveira, I think.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:06 PM BST
Yes it Plaza. I'd be laying the hell out of Quintana and Aru if I was inclined to have any more bets on this stage.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:07 PM BST
Actually SP is right it is Oliveira.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:08 PM BST
Dry roads haven't helped the break.
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 4:10 PM BST
Broom if you had been watching Roche was already starting to suffer himself before Froome was and is now off the back of Froome! he had 2 crashes this week so was always likely to suffer today.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:11 PM BST
Spanish tagteam!!
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 4:12 PM BST
Purito and Valverde taken 50 sec out of Quintana and Dumoulin etc  on the descent!!
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:12 PM BST
Laugh
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 4:14 PM BST
all getting very interesting out there now. no real large groups on the road at all. everyone seems very strung out
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:19 PM BST
Still got to fancy the men out front. Short and sharp this penultimate climb though.
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 4:21 PM BST
Purito win stage and take the red jersey?? Would love to see that, not backed him but long been a favourite of mine.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:22 PM BST
Love
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:23 PM BST
Paulinho (Tinkoff) hit by TV motorbike and abandoned Angry
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 4:24 PM BST
Another rider hit by motorbike! Getting ridiculous here!
And did anyone clock the last pictures of Froome looked like a lot of blood coming through his top on his shoulder, must have been a harder fall than we thought.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:25 PM BST
Going with the Purito group, breakaway didn't get their wet roads and gap down. Yes, Landa can bury-mode but there is likely to be attacks between the GC men, and accelerate things.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:27 PM BST
AST the second time around on the front were suggesting things with Aru.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:27 PM BST
I still think the men out front can take this
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 4:27 PM BST
Possovivo/ Nieve/ Dumoulin catch Purito group shocked with that! Especilly Dumoulin awesome stuff from him.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:30 PM BST
Final climb
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 4:34 PM BST
think the main GC group will make the catch now. They will head in to the bottom of the climb with alot more speed and think they will claw back the deficit thereafter
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:36 PM BST
AST back on the front -- everything is pointing to Aru.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:37 PM BST
Be very interesting to see if Dumoulin can stay with the real climbers on this final climb. He has had no help all day from his team and he's still in there and kicking with 12kms to go.
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 4:40 PM BST
Loooks like Landa is dropping back to maybe pick up Aru
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:41 PM BST
Landa coming through for the break looks like -- very odd!
Report geoff m September 2, 2015 4:42 PM BST
I think Carlton Kirby might have backed Attapuma for this stageLaugh
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:42 PM BST
Laugh
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:45 PM BST
He has, saw it on twitter this morning, did him at 150/1.
Report the swede September 2, 2015 4:46 PM BST
laid of some landa at evens
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:46 PM BST
Should be more professional and therefore unbiased in his commentary then!
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:47 PM BST
"This would be a great way for Landa to wave goodbye to Astana, don't know how many fingers the wave would have" Laugh
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:47 PM BST
Laugh
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:47 PM BST
Go on Landa lad! Aru attacks.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:48 PM BST
Here we go!
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:52 PM BST
It's less than 400 yards Landa has on Aru if the distance left is correct. No way that is 2mins 06.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:53 PM BST
Valverde with Dumoulin, Quintana will join Purito/Aru.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:55 PM BST
Clock -- crap!
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:56 PM BST
Aru goes again
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:58 PM BST
Will Landa sit up for Aru? Laugh
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:58 PM BST
Get your orders in for Dumoulin on GC now
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 4:58 PM BST
He better frigging well not
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 4:59 PM BST
Laugh
Report the swede September 2, 2015 4:59 PM BST
aru 1,45 after according to my clock
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 5:00 PM BST
Cheers Swede -- clock back in working order.
Report the swede September 2, 2015 5:01 PM BST
thanks to you SP for talking me into backing landa at 30
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 5:02 PM BST
Cool
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:08 PM BST
Whats Kirby on about? How's Boswell going to win this stage with 1200 metres to go?
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:09 PM BST
Go Landa!!! Finally I tip a winner!

Report the swede September 2, 2015 5:10 PM BST
great tactic that Landa tanked one of the previous stages!!!!
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 5:11 PM BST
Well done MC -- very happy for you mate!
Report virtuoso September 2, 2015 5:12 PM BST
well done winners!
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:13 PM BST
Great ride Boswell
Report nugget September 2, 2015 5:17 PM BST
Very nice call mc. 

Well done Landa backers
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:18 PM BST
Superb ride by Tom Dumoulin that!
Report nugget September 2, 2015 5:20 PM BST
Dumoulin at this rate will win the tour next year.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:20 PM BST
Talking about whether Froome will still be leader on the Vuelta Extra show. FFS he's 7 minutes down on Aru he can't be team leader.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 5:24 PM BST
Ashley is a bit of a goose who has good elocution -- Flecha has respect but has difficulty with articulation! Laugh
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:26 PM BST
Aru 30 seconds ahead of Dumoulin on GC. With a 38km flat time trial to come, he probably needs another 2 mins from somewhere at least.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:30 PM BST
Quintana 3.07 down on Aru Shocked
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 5:30 PM BST
GC talk for GC thread?
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:32 PM BST
See you on there Laugh
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 5:32 PM BST
Silly
Report nugget September 2, 2015 5:36 PM BST

Sep 2, 2015 -- 11:30AM, marychain1 wrote:


Quintana 3.07 down on Aru


Quintana cracked big time, possibly feeling the effects of the tour.  When both are in top shape Aru is not very far Quintana anyway.  Aru clearly has the advantage of the better preparation for this race.

Report CJ70 September 2, 2015 6:59 PM BST
Phone died as soon as SKY started to drop, talk about inopportune timing. I've read the thread, will comment when I've caught up on the race.
Report sixtwosix September 2, 2015 7:33 PM BST
Top 3 in Le Tour all out with the washing today , don't think this will be attempted again with this time gap between the races.
Landa is a superb climber and I never doubted he would stay away when he attacked.

Wide open race now.
Report CJ70 September 2, 2015 7:42 PM BST
Landa has said Martinelli told him to stop and he ignored him. That probably means he's getting sick before the end!
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