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detraveller
11 Aug 20 08:39
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Date Joined: 18 Nov 15
| Topic/replies: 27,844 | Blogger: detraveller's blog
Staying true to their reputation, Pakistan busted odds of 1.15 in Manchester. Not the best return as per their standards but I guess they can't always make it look so obvious.

In our quest for the next fix, we move to the port city of Southampton. According to the weather experts, there is rain around.

No need to do any research for this game. My sources tell me it will come down to Pakistan comfortably heading to a draw with rain forecast on the last day. They will get a couple of hours play, which as we all know is enough time for a collapse.

Don't mess this up and be green when the right time comes.

Like last time, a picture of the famous Akmal brothers who brought us all the luck in the last test.



Pakistan Zindabad.

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By:
Fatslogger
When: 11 Aug 20 12:47
Prices on the draw around 3.5 now and at times even a bit lower suggest a lot of rain forecast, which it really isn’t on met office. There may well be some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two but it doesn’t look like any sustained, session losing rain, let alone anything that would take most of a day out. I’ve naturally been laying from the high 4s so am in a bit of a dodgy position with £13k red but I’m not worried yet.
By:
detraveller
When: 11 Aug 20 19:22
fk me draw 2.7
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 11 Aug 20 19:27
Nothing that is sustained on the met office but some filth every day that I can see.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 11 Aug 20 19:46
Still looks to me much more likely to be minor showers that won’t hold up play for long than anything dramatic, although a thunderstorm is possible Thu especially, which could be problematic. Otherwise though, would pretty much expect fairly full to full days of play with cloud cover to help pace bowling. I think the current draw price is stark staring bonkers but then I thought that at 3.2, took another £500 lay there to go with the already large lays at 3.4-4.8 and now I’ve had to top up for a grand at 2.82 out of stubborn irritation so have £16.5k draw red. You just don’t get draw trains in England though, so I’m still not all that worried and if I end up sucking up a huge loss, I’ll likely still feel I took reasonable risks.
By:
kingscrewed
When: 11 Aug 20 20:00
Looks mostly intermittent light showers all through match, but high humidity so could swing round corners. Iirc correctly Sam Curran had the Indians in all sorts of trouble here a couple of years ago.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 11 Aug 20 21:25

Aug 11, 2020 -- 2:00PM, kingscrewed wrote:


Looks mostly intermittent light showers all through match, but high humidity so could swing round corners. Iirc correctly Sam Curran had the Indians in all sorts of trouble here a couple of years ago.


Yes. Could see some very low scores. My pocket is talking a bit but humid conditions, cloud cover and Woakes / Broad / CurranS could be devastating. I wouldn’t fancy England against the Pakistani bowling either.

By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 11 Aug 20 22:26
I may have a speculative draw lay here, its stubbornly refusing to go back out...I hope its no the Filthy Cabal at work.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 11 Aug 20 22:53
i can see wickets in humid conditions and if pak bowl first

cant believe the draw price at this stage
By:
DAN1974
When: 11 Aug 20 23:10
ridiculous draw price given the forecast, lay lay lay
By:
the whizz kids
When: 12 Aug 20 07:00
Big draw move this morning 2.7 out to 3.2. I did manage to lay a load at 2.94. Stupid price.
By:
the whizz kids
When: 12 Aug 20 08:51
Big lumps backing and laying the draw. Already 600k done and not even 24hrs away yet.
By:
detraveller
When: 12 Aug 20 09:40
Met messing now with the new Thursday forecast Grin
By:
DAN1974
When: 12 Aug 20 10:48
changed again, wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't rain at all Grin
By:
DAN1974
When: 12 Aug 20 10:49
why on earth would you want to back the draw at sub 2/1 when there is only a 50% chance of showers on a couple of days Confused
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 12 Aug 20 11:04
I suppose Crawley comes back in? Leach does not get a go. Possible Wood for Archer but Curran would be a better fit on this wicket me thinks.

I said some time ago I believe Woakes was a kwality batsman and he would have a btter chance of getting into the England side as a batsman. The same with Curran but there were vacancies then. The number 6 spot is up for grabs imho when young Pope moves to 3 although I think Crawley will be a good fit for Aus.

All batsmen no matter how good have trouble with extreme pace and the new ball / hard ball. I can see Woakes being targeted in Australia. The only way to play it better is to bat against it more frequently so I hope both he and Curran get more practice on the bowling machine at least. They both offer something to England but imho at the present time are almost not good enough for a spot in the starting XL ( although Woakes at home is pretty damn good ).
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Aug 20 11:11
Harsh on Woakes, WD, even though you accept he’s a beast at home. His away record isn’t great but he’s hardly played recently away from home and he did well in NZ, I think. I still think he’s a better cricketer than Stokes and I’m not saying I think Stokes is anything other than very good himself. A side with a specialist spinner (ideally a good one but we don’t have one), a specialist quick and Stokes, Woakes and CurranS would cover a lot of bases but we have a lot of good fast bowlers who’d then be left out for more batting at 9 and I just don’t think CurranS is there as a bowler yet to keep out any of Archer, Wood, Anderson or Broad, depending on conditions.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 12 Aug 20 11:44
Maybe, Woakes has improved as a bowler I agree. We shall wait and see when he plays overseas. Test cricket is a tough place for a bowler on a flat wicket even a fast bowler.

I do think his batting is made for test cricket if he can work out how to play extreme pace. He works at 6 for me. I would really like to see Foakes given a go too as I believe he has the correct technique for Test Match batting and is a better wicket keeper than Butler. Butler is an amazing cricketer don't get me wrong but again I say..... Test Match Cricket!
By:
detraveller
When: 12 Aug 20 12:49
Overs played last 4 tests: 310, 273, 331, 347. That's less than four days of play each test.

This game might be a bit more tricky since most rain is forecast for last two days, as opposed to the start of the test.

Hardly any decent team that can play for a draw these days. But I don't have the balls to bet against the weather.
By:
DAN1974
When: 12 Aug 20 12:56
Only showers forecast though, which have been hit and miss right across the UK this week.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Aug 20 13:58

Aug 12, 2020 -- 6:49AM, detraveller wrote:


Overs played last 4 tests: 310, 273, 331, 347. That's less than four days of play each test.This game might be a bit more tricky since most rain is forecast for last two days, as opposed to the start of the test.Hardly any decent team that can play for a draw these days. But I don't have the balls to bet against the weather.


It’s very likely indeed that the showers forecast at the end of the test won’t matter because it will have finished long before. It also doesn’t really look like session after session of washouts, so much as some rain, some sun and most likely the ability to play a fair bit, if needed, between rain breaks. My £16.4 draw red may be talking but this really does feel like 3 1/2 days of pretty decent bowling weather without a high risk of much if any time lost and then a bit more risk of problems. That feels comfortably like a result to me, the significant majority of the time.

By:
feedthepony
When: 12 Aug 20 14:46
Gotta lay the draw -  300 overs under cloud cover should be enough for 40 wickets with these 2 seam attacks
By:
madman9
When: 12 Aug 20 15:09
backed draw 3.5  2 days ago came out already with small profit-but what to do now ?   the equation is how much do you trust forecasters ?
im in south devon supposed to be rain today, not a cloud in the sky, many millions spent on forecasting and they still havent a clue, so looking at my lucky pine cone,seaweed and runes
purely for more excitement, have to go for laying draw, so every wicket is great, both teams have energetic attacks and cloud cover says wickets must constantly fall, and wet ground will dry quickly, guessing they will be on and off the pitch more than a grasshopper on a bitumen roof
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 12 Aug 20 18:20
Some draw layers have arrived.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Aug 20 19:38

Aug 12, 2020 -- 12:20PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Some draw layers have arrived.


Yes, I've traded a tiny bit of the edge off my red today but just can't bring myself to back for more than a small portion of my green at a price that doesn't get me to push and offers what 'd still think is bad trading equity and astonishingly bad outcome equity.

Met Office for tomorrow has improved a bit. In fact, it has one 3 hour period at 30% chance of showers at 1600 Friday and otherwise nothing during hours of play even at 20% until you get into Sunday afternoon.  Obviously it could firm up chances of rain as it's just a prediction but currently looks highly likely the game will be done or all but done before we even start to have much risk of significant rain.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Aug 20 19:46
Have high hopes of humid conditions; otherwise decent looking forecasts for days 1-3 and the market starting to discount the prospect of distant rain clouds on days 4 and 5 as wickets tumble to swing bowling.  I'm idly wondering what sort of approach I should be taking in that scenario. Beyond that I'll definitely go to comedy green if the draw gets to double figures, I've not really decided.

Or I may get carted out for about 15% of my bank.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 12 Aug 20 20:52
I believe these duke balls are not as lethal this year as was the case for previous 2 english summers v India & Aus.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 12 Aug 20 21:00
Some modest tick nicking is all I've done so far.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Aug 20 21:40

Aug 12, 2020 -- 2:52PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


I believe these duke balls are not as lethal this year as was the case for previous 2 english summers v India & Aus.


Possibly.  Could be atmospherics too.  Certainly the Duke has done enough for results though.

Interesting that England sticking with Anderson and clearly Woakes and Broad have had startlingly good summers and will be retained.  If it swings, sticking with Anderson could be a solid call.

By:
ayt
When: 13 Aug 20 06:20
i m backing a decent amount on England to win the Toss..Ask me about match result in DM..cant share here this time..THE BIGGEST BET OF THIS YEAR,WHICH CANNOT LOSE...
By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Aug 20 06:57
Ayt???? LaughLaughLaugh. I've gone in with my final lay draw. Let's just sit back and watch the wickets fall.
By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Aug 20 07:02
This must be all foreign money backing the draw. It was due to rain for about 15 hours between 4pm and 7am in Somerset and yet we've had absolutely nothing. Us Brits are gonna clean up on this test.
By:
elisjohn
When: 13 Aug 20 07:09
there 10 cities across the world named southampton, these foreigners must have the wrong one,LaughLaugh, i fully expect around 5s by  11.00.
By:
DAN1974
When: 13 Aug 20 07:36

Aug 13, 2020 -- 1:02AM, the whizz kids wrote:


This must be all foreign money backing the draw. It was due to rain for about 15 hours between 4pm and 7am in Somerset and yet we've had absolutely nothing. Us Brits are gonna clean up on this test.


Yep, same here in the midlands, rain forecast all week, it rained last night for the first time and that was a massive thunderstorm.

By:
kingscrewed
When: 13 Aug 20 08:30
Bbc weather has weather warnings but basically admits hasn't got a clue where thunderstorms are going to hit.  Almost exact same warnings for the midlands and Southampton the next few days. Possibity of horrendous downpours but most likely light showers, would of expected draw to be around 4 by that. Have layed at 3 dont think ill be considering trading out until close of play Friday at the earliest. Good luck all.
By:
DAN1974
When: 13 Aug 20 09:50
im hoping this draw price will take off once live pictures of sunny Southampton start coming through
By:
cricketnut2
When: 13 Aug 20 10:05
Here we go rain and storms expected, as conditions finally get cooler. Humid conditions this morning, so the ball may well swing around. Whatever the weather, Test matches do not last more than 4 days and less on many occasions, hence the 5th day now only comes into play, as a reserve day in case of bad weather on the opening 4 days of the Test.
By:
cricketnut2
When: 13 Aug 20 10:10
Shan Masood scored 156 in the 1st innings of the game, but in the end were comfortably beaten. England seem to be very very average batting, so despite there being rain around laying the draw would seem to be the sensible option in this game at 3.1
By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Aug 20 10:23

Aug 13, 2020 -- 12:20AM, ayt wrote:


i m backing a decent amount on England to win the Toss..Ask me about match result in DM..cant share here this time..THE BIGGEST BET OF THIS YEAR,WHICH CANNOT LOSE...


LaughLaughLaugh£2777 matched on this market so far.

By:
tomtimtum
When: 13 Aug 20 10:23
£2 of that is Ayts LaughLaugh
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