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detraveller
24 May 19 15:07
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Date Joined: 18 Nov 15
| Topic/replies: 27,854 | Blogger: detraveller's blog
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Report Hamlin May 27, 2019 1:49 PM BST

May 27, 2019 -- 7:13AM, sageform wrote:


Root had the best bowling figures which suggests that the other 2 spinners are not much good.


Not really, guessing you didn't watch it.

Report peckerdunne May 27, 2019 2:14 PM BST
Lanka set aussie 240, 50 short.......
Report VardonVoo. May 27, 2019 5:05 PM BST
"Mugbai" - very good.

I usually try to stick to 2% (so £20 per bet per K of bank) and 5-to-1 or higher to open a position. Whenever I stray from that it usually costs me big time. Losing large odds-on bets is the real killer as it reduces your bank so much that your bets are scaled down and take much longer to build your bank back. Kelly might say to bet big if you have an edge but I don't see the harm in stepping back and Kelly-betting just on longer shots and skipping the shorties. The thing is with Kelly is you don't know what your actual edge really is in the particular circumstance (even if you know your overall average cricket-betting success rate) so if you over-estimate your edge on a short odds bet, e.g. by trusting the weather radar/prediction, then you end up betting way too much. The same error isn't too serious with a smaller bet at 5-1.
Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 2:20 AM BST

May 27, 2019 -- 7:49AM, Hamlin wrote:


May 27, 2019 --  1:13PM, sageform wrote:Root had the best bowling figures which suggests that the other 2 spinners are not much good.Not really, guessing you didn't watch it.


I can imagine you have zero friends. Every comment you make has snide, condescending undertones.
You probably torture animals in your spare time

Report Hamlin May 28, 2019 8:46 AM BST

May 27, 2019 -- 8:20PM, jucel69 wrote:


May 27, 2019 --  1:49PM, Hamlin wrote:May 27, 2019 --  1:13PM, sageform wrote:Root had the best bowling figures which suggests that the other 2 spinners are not much good.Not really, guessing you didn't watch it.I can imagine you have zero friends. Every comment you make has snide, condescending undertones. You probably torture animals in your spare time


Rough day?

Report Hamlin May 28, 2019 8:50 AM BST
Looking at the time of the post I'd say someone was drowning their sorrows/losses. I'll continue with my snide undertones (guessing people didn't watch something) while you continue with your pleasant posts (accusing people of torturing animals). May I suggest you get some couch time with a therapist though, some dark thoughts in your head.
Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 8:58 AM BST
It was morning for me! I'm 6 hours ahead.

Haven't watched or bet on any of the warm up games so why would I be drowning my sorrowsConfused

I think I'll give the therapist a missLaugh
Report Hamlin May 28, 2019 9:19 AM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 2:58AM, jucel69 wrote:


It was morning for me! I'm 6 hours ahead.Haven't watched or bet on any of the warm up games so why would I be drowning my sorrowsI think I'll give the therapist a miss


Why would you be in this thread then? 6 hours ahead? Sounds like you might be located in one of those dog eating countries, perhaps your animal torture comments were a bit of projection.

Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 9:52 AM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 3:19AM, Hamlin wrote:


May 28, 2019 --  8:58AM, jucel69 wrote:It was morning for me! I'm 6 hours ahead.Haven't watched or bet on any of the warm up games so why would I be drowning my sorrowsI think I'll give the therapist a missWhy would you be in this thread then? 6 hours ahead? Sounds like you might be located in one of those dog eating countries, perhaps your animal torture comments were a bit of projection.


Crazy

Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 9:53 AM BST
I actually gave 1000 quid to a dog charity today so you couldn't be more off the markLaugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:05 AM BST
Shut up both of you.

I hope we get some rain action today in Bristol. I have layed Yes at 1.02
Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 10:08 AM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 4:05AM, detraveller wrote:


Shut up both of you.I hope we get some rain action today in Bristol. I have layed Yes at 1.02


Should get a game in easy there DT

Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:10 AM BST
Cloudy changing to heavy showers by lunchtime.
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:11 AM BST
hopefully it will make YES drift
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:37 AM BST
Yes
€18.65
       
No
€3,493.86
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:37 AM BST
Grin
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:38 AM BST
Devil
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:40 AM BST
Its all about the axis.
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 10:43 AM BST
Laugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:50 AM BST
pecker you there?
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 10:55 AM BST
no, i'm here..........Grin
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 10:55 AM BST
no, i'm here..........Grin
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 10:55 AM BST
no, i'm here..........Grin
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:58 AM BST
Good to knwow
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 10:58 AM BST
Mash em hup boyz Laugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 10:58 AM BST
What do you think?
Should I wait for the afternoon rain to arrive?
Or cash out now for 400+ green?
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:03 AM BST
You probably torture animals in your spare time
I like this. Grin
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 11:05 AM BST
ok Det, i haven't looked at the weather for there...

i am on Windies and with the outright page open also.

if you appear to have real value and think a threat exists that should be enough to hang on a bit longer..

usually the price will hold on threat and then spike perhaps momentarily as manips try it on..

DO GET SOME HARD CASH FROM IT ALL THE SAME.........
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:07 AM BST
Yes I already cashed out for a pecker on read. Increased that pecker to 50 now without giving up much green on NO.

Weather just updated and it has changed from heavy showers to light showers. Yet my YES back bets got matched up to 1.22
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 11:08 AM BST
NICE Grin
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:09 AM BST
I've now cashed out less than half of my NO green.
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:09 AM BST
jesus this price is moving well for me
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:11 AM BST
Yes
€482.42
   
No
€1,798.31
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:12 AM BST
Was trying to cash out for 800 all green at 1.33 but couldn't pull it off.
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 11:14 AM BST
have to say im surprised windies are 2.5 right now
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 11:21 AM BST
mash em hup boyz Laugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:21 AM BST
Windies flying
Report Hamlin May 28, 2019 11:25 AM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 3:53AM, jucel69 wrote:


I actually gave 1000 quid to a dog charity today so you couldn't be more off the mark


*dog restaurant

Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:30 AM BST
Just layed 280 at 1.21
Report VardonVoo. May 28, 2019 11:33 AM BST
Hey Jucel, where you are is it true they eat everything with legs except the table?
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:35 AM BST
Jucel's favorite is the creature with three legs
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 11:36 AM BST
Laugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 11:39 AM BST
Holy feck I just realized I had my 1.02 and 1.01 partially matched in the other game too.
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 12:00 PM BST
windies outright tumbling Grin
Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 12:03 PM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 5:33AM, VardonVoo. wrote:


Hey Jucel, where you are is it true they eat everything with legs except the table?


Not really a dog eating country
I know near the borders it happens but I've never seen it on the menu or hung up.
I suppose it also depends how hungry people are!
You do see whole rats on a stick and whole frogs (both bbq)
Deep fried insects, I call them crispy critters. Never tried them but they stink when they are being fried.
Also lots of fermented fish which is rancid
I don't eat any of that boondocks filth
If you want to see weird food then Japan and China are the places. ****g minging stuff, especially China.

In Phillipines they eat balot which is horrible too
https://pinoyfoodillustrated.blogspot.com/2017/08/balot.html

Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 12:05 PM BST
1.78 looks a gift
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 12:23 PM BST
mash hem hup like squash u know Laugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 12:23 PM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 5:30AM, detraveller wrote:


Just layed 280 at 1.21


RIP

Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 12:25 PM BST
Windies still twice the price black caps on these decks.............cccccrrrraazyyyyyyy mon.......
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 12:26 PM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 6:25AM, peckerdunne wrote:


Windies still twice the price black caps on these decks.............cccccrrrraazyyyyyyy mon.......


Probably because of their lack of consistency and bowling.

Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 12:27 PM BST
but they can flat track Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 12:28 PM BST
2.5 all gawn

2.o all gawn

1.78 all gawn Laugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 12:29 PM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 6:03AM, jucel69 wrote:


May 28, 2019 -- 11:33AM, VardonVoo. wrote:Hey Jucel, where you are is it true they eat everything with legs except the table?Not really a dog eating countryI know near the borders it happens but I've never seen it on the menu or hung up.I suppose it also depends how hungry people are!You do see whole rats on a stick and whole frogs (both bbq)Deep fried insects, I call them crispy critters. Never tried them but they stink when they are being fried. Also lots of fermented fish which is rancidI don't eat any of that boondocks filthIf you want to see weird food then Japan and China are the places. ****g minging stuff, especially China.In Phillipines they eat balot which is horrible toohttps://pinoyfoodillustrated.blogspot.com/2017/08/balot.html


Imagine if Grant grew up there. He'd have a farm with all kinds of traps for every living being and a large frying pan. Fried food every day.

Report detraveller May 28, 2019 12:30 PM BST
I can confirm 1.37 was the bottom on Windies coz I just backed them there Laugh
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 12:32 PM BST
I didn't back them earlier because I thought if rain shortens the game the bet won't have any value.

Its really hard to see them lose from here though as D/L should help them with only 2 down and NZ needing to score quickly right from the word go.
Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 1:01 PM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 6:29AM, detraveller wrote:


May 28, 2019 -- 12:03PM, jucel69 wrote:May 28, 2019 -- 11:33AM, VardonVoo. wrote:Hey Jucel, where you are is it true they eat everything with legs except the table?Not really a dog eating countryI know near the borders it happens but I've never seen it on the menu or hung up.I suppose it also depends how hungry people are!You do see whole rats on a stick and whole frogs (both bbq)Deep fried insects, I call them crispy critters. Never tried them but they stink when they are being fried. Also lots of fermented fish which is rancidI don't eat any of that boondocks filthIf you want to see weird food then Japan and China are the places. ****g minging stuff, especially China.In Phillipines they eat balot which is horrible toohttps://pinoyfoodillustrated.blogspot.com/2017/08/balot.htmlImagine if Grant grew up there. He'd have a farm with all kinds of traps for every living being and a large frying pan. Fried food every day.


would he fcuk, he's too lazy. No way he cooks anything never mind skinning and prepping wild beastsLaugh

Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 1:02 PM BST
H'ed run from a snail..........Grin
Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 1:04 PM BST
Grin
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 1:15 PM BST
Matt Henry
6-0-65-0 Grin
Report VardonVoo. May 28, 2019 1:19 PM BST
Always been curious about "Casu Marzu" from Sardinia. Imagine having to wear eye-protection to eat cheese in case maggots leap into your eyes and take up residence.
Report jucel69 May 28, 2019 1:23 PM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 7:19AM, VardonVoo. wrote:


Always been curious about "Casu Marzu" from Sardinia. Imagine having to wear eye-protection to eat cheese in case maggots leap into your eyes and take up residence.


Yeh never fancied that to be fair!

Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 1:41 PM BST
Pooran, wt ye doing mon
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 1:48 PM BST
Dre enters the fray..........over da rope she goes

lets have 10 an over for 400

Lockie who Grin
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 1:56 PM BST
Be careful with your assumptions lads this venue Cardiff & Bangers have some history......Champions Trophy 2017 Big Gubbing
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:00 PM BST
400 plus Grin
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:05 PM BST
PPPPPUUUUUUMMMMMMEEEEEEELLLLLLLEDDDDDDD   Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:08 PM BST
CCCCCCCCCCCCAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEEEE



Lucky they practiced those yorkers Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:11 PM BST
farooq_gill: "Bowlers are being murdered on these pitches and people are finding it interesting. PC cricket games are more interesting then.


But Grant loves this money printer Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:12 PM BST
What a dre money printing feast Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:16 PM BST
big Carlos walks in at 9 Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:18 PM BST
66666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666         Carlos


444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444   Carlos

Laugh butchered carved diced
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:30 PM BST
Matt Henry
8-0-100-1  Laugh severe
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:34 PM BST
gotta be some folk with very long faces on the runs Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:36 PM BST
9/2 NZ TO GET 420 PLUS Grin
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:37 PM BST
must be December Laugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:42 PM BST
beg borrow steal

phone ure granny

the long lost aunt

xtract the equity from da house

AND PILE IN LaughLaugh
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:47 PM BST
421 * (49.2/50 ov)
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:47 PM BST
421 AO
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 2:52 PM BST
cAPTAIN dHONI TON UP,
Report johnnythebull May 28, 2019 2:59 PM BST
the boy MS has morphed as of late from a quasi Tavare into a hybrid Gayleforce/DreRuss..had a good IPL
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 3:25 PM BST
pecker, windies got bowled out. I think that's one reason why they are twice the NZ price.
Report peckerdunne May 28, 2019 4:36 PM BST
bowled with 4 balls left and 421 runs scored

i think its a pretty ludicrous suggestion Det Grin

I backed them all the way......what a gift....

have them for 2k outright too
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 4:50 PM BST
Happy
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 5:31 PM BST
Mushy reckons he has got this!
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 5:32 PM BST
There is some beef to come from Bangers!


Don't you count your chickens Indian backers!!!!!!!
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 5:50 PM BST
Bangers have imploded!
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 5:52 PM BST
si
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 6:01 PM BST
These warm up matches have been worthwhile for me. I'm well in profit on them just as I was well in loss on the IPL.
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 6:02 PM BST
One of the reasons is I have not been paranoid about fixing and spot fixing and orchestrated finishes for tv and all the rest of it which disturbs my whole trading style.
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 6:02 PM BST
One of the reasons is I have not been paranoid about fixing and spot fixing and orchestrated finishes for tv and all the rest of it which disturbs my whole trading style.
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 6:05 PM BST
maybe there werent enough number of games to take you into red overall.
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 6:05 PM BST
im on under 260 at 1.3
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 6:23 PM BST
just when i thought i had done mmy nuts...Grin
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 6:25 PM BST
Grin
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 6:28 PM BST
180 bucks Grin

well played young man.
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 6:42 PM BST

May 28, 2019 -- 12:05PM, detraveller wrote:


maybe there werent enough number of games to take you into red overall.


That's a low blow DT Angry

Report detraveller May 28, 2019 7:07 PM BST
Those are words of wisdom CS.

By the way I messed up that runline win. Assumed they won't get to 260 and ended up giving away over 100 green. Need to get out of this habit of assuming how the game will end. Has cost me several times. Maybe pecker can help me with that.
Report Cardinal Scott May 28, 2019 7:30 PM BST
Grin

Nothing on tomorrow, we have a pause.
Report detraveller May 28, 2019 7:42 PM BST
That's the timeim most vulnerable to losses as I go mugging about in other sports. Tennis grand slam. A better time for wasting money has never been invented.
Report VardonVoo. May 29, 2019 4:08 PM BST
@ DT

The trouble with tennis is the odds often sit either side of the point so unless you take a bad price you're only likely to get matched once the point has been decided (so basically you're getting hoovered the whole time). The only common situation that I think gives you winning tradeable chances if you can get on for a reasonable price is when the players are on deuce (or 30-all) and the non-sever gets the upper hand but fails to convert. This can cycle repeatedly for several points. Tie-breakers can be good too as you get long odds on the current underdog but they often catch up to within a point or two, cos of the frequent serve-swap.

What you say about getting out of the habit of assuming an outcome - do you not feel a strong urge to scale out and level your position?
I'm always afraid of losing my hard-earned green through something unexpected, cos that's the assumption I made that generates the green in the first place. I tend to think that odds that reach evens are at a stage where the market is saying both outcomes are equally likely so rather than think I'm somehow smarter than the market I aim to level off at least a portion of my green at that average price. What I actually do in practice is place a large bet at 1.5, a smaller bet at 2.0 and half-again as much at 3.0 - thats to turn a green on the opposite outcome into a levellish green all round, or at least clear the red. But if the flip-flop goes really short I wil usually dip into the remaining green to gear up in case it flips back. If it's not yet down to the last few balls/wickets that 1.5/2.0/3.0 trade usually gets put in place regardless of any other tinkering I might do, in case I leave the room or am on another page when something happens. Call it "distraction insurance".

I'm yet to work out if laying really short odds and covering the red at less-short odds to leave a free bet is a better or worse strategy than leaving the bet running to cover at much higher odds at the risk of accumulating lots of small losses. My gut feel is reducing losses and banking small gains compounds reasonably well if you get enough opportunities to do it. With Test matches there aren't enough so more risk is justified (and there are usually more chances to trade out anyway). But with two-outcome formats I think holding on for a big winner at the expense of lots of small losses may not be as efficient as reducing the losses first and settling for frequent but modest wins. At least levelling off means you have green to use when either side goes really short and if there's a multi-flipper you can really cash in.
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