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GRANTCKING
24 Apr 19 15:01
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Date Joined: 08 May 10
| Topic/replies: 267,118 | Blogger: GRANTCKING's blog
Pitch report: There are some cracks with even grass covering and Brendon McCullum reckons that the ball would come on nicely and it could be a batting friendly pitch.
Pause Switch to Standard View Bangalore vs Punjab, 42nd Match
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Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 3:02 PM BST
Kings XI Punjab have won the toss and have opted to field
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 3:06 PM BST
Kings XI Punjab (Playing XI): Lokesh Rahul(w), Chris Gayle, Mayank Agarwal, David Miller, Mandeep Singh, Nicholas Pooran, Ravichandran Ashwin(c), Hardus Viljoen, Murugan Ashwin, Ankit Rajpoot, Mohammed Shami

Royal Challengers Bangalore (Playing XI): Parthiv Patel(w), Virat Kohli(c), AB de Villiers, Marcus Stoinis, Akshdeep Nath, Moeen Ali, Washington Sundar, Tim Southee, Navdeep Saini, Umesh Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 3:43 PM BST
absolute runway here, massive score coming
Report jucel69 April 24, 2019 4:16 PM BST
I wish Moeen Ali would just die. Every innings of every game he does the exact opposite of my bets
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 4:23 PM BST
Cry RCB have completely collapsed here
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 4:24 PM BST

Apr 24, 2019 -- 10:16AM, jucel69 wrote:


I wish Moeen Ali would just die. Every innings of every game he does the exact opposite of my bets


yeh know the feeling

Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 4:32 PM BST
theyre gonna need a massive finish here
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 4:46 PM BST
I need 173 and 180 here
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 4:52 PM BST
touch and go WD, all on AB
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 4:57 PM BST
Stoinis has been poor. Lost the game for RCB but at least he is still there to save my runs lines!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 4:57 PM BST
Just get a single and give the strike to AB you dumb convict!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 4:58 PM BST
666666666666666
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 4:58 PM BST
Dew already they will easily chase this down!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:01 PM BST
dont get a single ffs! have a wild swing off the last ball!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:02 PM BST
He has been shockingly mediocre!

There must be better players around!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:04 PM BST
Sad
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:06 PM BST
77777777777777777777777
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:06 PM BST
wtf no no ball?!?!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:09 PM BST
cool all the run lines complete on overs now have 180-190 and God forbid 190-200! I would love exactly 190
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:09 PM BST
66666666666666666666
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:12 PM BST
oh ffs Stoinis! No more sixes please I got a cracking £35 at 6's for 190-200!
Report ColdTurkey April 24, 2019 5:13 PM BST
Cry RCB have completely collapsed here
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:13 PM BST
massive runway
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:14 PM BST
couldve got 230+ on this if they didnt collapse in the middle overs
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:14 PM BST
oh you bstard Stoinis!

I got £15 200-210 at 4.75! That six done me for £210 instead I get £71.25 back!

Still can't complainGrin
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:15 PM BST
Only about £140 down from yesterday after all that!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:17 PM BST
ooh I had a cheeky bet on Sportsbook too at 10/11!

I think Kings can chase this down if they don't lose a wicket in the power play. Small ground, jew, plenty of pace on the ball. Only Chahal to deal with if the ball dont swing early and the jew may help with that!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:22 PM BST
anyone have an opinion on Kings chasing this down?

I think they can, Need to keep wickets in tact with a long tail.

4 big hitters, 2 batsmen and two bowlers who can bat a bit.

Cannot afford to lose a wicket and so will hold off backing them for two or so overs!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:23 PM BST

Apr 24, 2019 -- 11:22AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


anyone have an opinion on Kings chasing this down?I think they can, Need to keep wickets in tact with a long tail.4 big hitters, 2 batsmen and two bowlers who can bat a bit.Cannot afford to lose a wicket and so will hold off backing them for two or so overs!


def can, look how bad the RCB overs were from like 8-15, they wasted so many balls

Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:33 PM BST
I am on the Universe Boss!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:40 PM BST
Shocking bowling. The leggie is their only chance I think. Two more overs and the swing will have gone plus jew is coming
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:40 PM BST
I like Saini but on this pitch?

Clobberoo!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:45 PM BST
6666666666666666666
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:47 PM BST
oh dear fail is goneski
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:48 PM BST
KL the key man here. As long as he stays in then Kings win. Indian players should be able to handle Chahal
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 5:54 PM BST
Ok the bowlers have bowled filth but Kohli is not helping them in any way with those dirty looks!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 5:58 PM BST
theyre doing it for preity!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:10 PM BST
well Preity does it for me!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:10 PM BST
I've heard she does it for you every night!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:11 PM BST
LaughLaughLaugh
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:12 PM BST
very important to keep up with the rate and not leave too much pressure for the big hitters
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:14 PM BST
kings utterly flying here
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:15 PM BST
preity is very moist
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:16 PM BST
2.29 average Kings, when should I green Grant?
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:16 PM BST
when it hits sub 1.08
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:16 PM BST
Grin
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:17 PM BST
Cry out to a pie
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:17 PM BST
FFS Stoinis!

Get Pooran in!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:17 PM BST
they will send in mugdeep singh first I think
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:18 PM BST
save pooran and miller for the last 5
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:18 PM BST
oh wow theyve sent in miller
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:19 PM BST
Well done, give the strike over!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:22 PM BST
Ashley they should have sent in Mugdeep. He has enough time to set himself up but same goes with Miller. Small ground should help him
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:23 PM BST
Cry big collapso
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:24 PM BST
what a donkey!

get Pooran in. We don't need this rate rising too much. They will bring Chahal back on now too but see him off
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:26 PM BST
here we go again!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:27 PM BST
I was going to say I think RCB will be in the play offs!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:31 PM BST
david mugger
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:35 PM BST
POORAN GONNA ROCK YA
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:36 PM BST
666666666666666666
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:36 PM BST
This is your man isn't it Grant?

You have been raging about him
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:37 PM BST
yes!
Report ColdTurkey April 24, 2019 6:37 PM BST
finally G gets his man in. Lump on Kings now.
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:38 PM BST
66666666666666666666
Report ColdTurkey April 24, 2019 6:39 PM BST
looks like a final over IPL special
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:39 PM BST
well done!
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:40 PM BST
Good call Thai!
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:47 PM BST
Love pooran
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 6:55 PM BST
you beauty!
Report Puzzman April 24, 2019 6:55 PM BST
Has Stonis just dropped the game?
Report Puzzman April 24, 2019 6:55 PM BST
meaning to ask anyone have the stats on win% when the team batting first gets 40+ off the last two overs?
Report GRANTCKING April 24, 2019 6:58 PM BST
david mugger cost them the game
Report Whisperingdeath April 24, 2019 7:01 PM BST
not sure if we have a statto on here!
Report Puzzman April 24, 2019 7:04 PM BST

Apr 24, 2019 -- 1:01PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


not sure if we have a statto on here!


Its might just be selective memory but I don't think I've seen such a team lose in a non-suspect T20 league.

Report Hamlin April 24, 2019 7:11 PM BST
You know whats really insane, crazy insane
Report Hamlin April 24, 2019 7:11 PM BST
How much better the IPL was than the Big Bash, I know a lot of people said it... but its just so much more entertaining
Report Puzzman April 24, 2019 7:25 PM BST
Picking 30+ as a cut off

Delhi score 37 and win in match 3
KKR score 31 and win in Match 6
MI score 30 and win in match 7
RR score 34 and LOSE in match 8
CSK score 36 and win in match 12
MI score 45 and win in match 15
CSK score 33 and win in match 18
MI score 39 and win in match 19
KX11 score 38 and LOSE in match 24
MI score 33 and win in match 34
RCB score 35 and win in match 35
RCB score 48 and win in match 42

So that's 10/12 winners, both losers scored just short of 200 (195ish) so maybe a % method would work better?
Report Puzzman April 24, 2019 7:33 PM BST
huh only the losers scored in the 190-200 range - is it a mental thing 'kept them under 200'
Report Puzzman April 25, 2019 7:21 PM BST
and Murphy's Law
KKR score 36 and LOSE in Match 43
Report VardonVoo. April 26, 2019 11:28 AM BST
Good stuff, Puzzy!

It would be a useful habit for people to note the odds at change-over in these threads, but your results already suggest that the odds would have to be pretty short on the team scoring 30+ in the last two overs for a fresh bet on them to be minus EV. You might be onto something!

By "percent method" do you mean "score over x % of the first innings total in the last two overs"?
Report Puzzman April 26, 2019 6:35 PM BST

Apr 26, 2019 -- 5:28AM, VardonVoo. wrote:


Good stuff, Puzzy!It would be a useful habit for people to note the odds at change-over in these threads, but your results already suggest that the odds would have to be pretty short on the team scoring 30+ in the last two overs for a fresh bet on them to be minus EV. You might be onto something!By "percent method" do you mean "score over x % of the first innings total in the last two overs"?


Correct, I'm estimate 20% as a cut off but its something I need to sit down and go through several seasons of matches for. Might even be a combination of both e.g 30+ runs and 20% of the total.

Report Puzzman May 1, 2019 6:56 PM BST
Small update I did it the 2015-2016 seasons, there were 14 cases of a team batting first and getting 30+ runs, 8 of won of the 6 losers one had only scored 121.

Side note my original theory was 40+, so those there were 3 and all 3 won
Report Puzzman May 1, 2019 6:58 PM BST

May 1, 2019 -- 12:56PM, Puzzman wrote:


Small update I did it the 2015-2016 seasons, there were 14 cases of a team batting first and getting 30+ runs, 8 of won of the 6 losers one had only scored 121.Side note my original theory was 40+, so those there were 3 and all 3 won


some shocking English here

tldr

2015-2016 seasons

14 cases of 30+
8 winners
6 losers - one only scored 121 - the losers tend to have the last 2 a higher % of their innings.

so its not a straight forward back

3 cases of 40+
3 winners

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