Apr 24, 2019 -- 10:16AM, jucel69 wrote:
I wish Moeen Ali would just die. Every innings of every game he does the exact opposite of my bets
yeh know the feeling
Apr 24, 2019 -- 11:22AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:
anyone have an opinion on Kings chasing this down?I think they can, Need to keep wickets in tact with a long tail.4 big hitters, 2 batsmen and two bowlers who can bat a bit.Cannot afford to lose a wicket and so will hold off backing them for two or so overs!
def can, look how bad the RCB overs were from like 8-15, they wasted so many balls
Apr 24, 2019 -- 1:01PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:
not sure if we have a statto on here!
Its might just be selective memory but I don't think I've seen such a team lose in a non-suspect T20 league.
Apr 26, 2019 -- 5:28AM, VardonVoo. wrote:
Good stuff, Puzzy!It would be a useful habit for people to note the odds at change-over in these threads, but your results already suggest that the odds would have to be pretty short on the team scoring 30+ in the last two overs for a fresh bet on them to be minus EV. You might be onto something!By "percent method" do you mean "score over x % of the first innings total in the last two overs"?
Correct, I'm estimate 20% as a cut off but its something I need to sit down and go through several seasons of matches for. Might even be a combination of both e.g 30+ runs and 20% of the total.
May 1, 2019 -- 12:56PM, Puzzman wrote:
Small update I did it the 2015-2016 seasons, there were 14 cases of a team batting first and getting 30+ runs, 8 of won of the 6 losers one had only scored 121.Side note my original theory was 40+, so those there were 3 and all 3 won
some shocking English here
14 cases of 30+
6 losers - one only scored 121 - the losers tend to have the last 2 a higher % of their innings.
so its not a straight forward back
3 cases of 40+