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jucel69
04 Mar 19 23:25
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Date Joined: 03 Aug 12
| Topic/replies: 56,851 | Blogger: jucel69's blog
Looks like a washout on day one. Showers on days two and three.
The draw already on the move. Managed to get bits and pieces from 9s to 7s and still dropping
The last game here the deck was as flat as a pancake so the draw could be a runner.

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By:
blackcap
When: 05 Mar 19 00:07
Can still get 6's with one of my bookies. Might have a lump at that.
By:
blackcap
When: 05 Mar 19 00:07
That weather forecast has changed dramatically. Wellington does bat very well. Am going to keep my eye on this one. Tried to lay NZ at 1.15 but no takers.
By:
ltfc fan
When: 05 Mar 19 00:22
Managed to Back to lay from 8.2 to 5.6 on betfair for free draw play of £200. Also managed to get £150 on at 7/1 on b365 (who are late to react to tumbling prices on draw elsewhere), so all in all £1200 of draw back for £150 of liability. As others have said above, this was a real road on the last recent time out v. SL (even on the last day with weather around and rain falling); and the forecast doesn't look too clever. Add to this the less than great forecast, and looks like a good start position to be on the draw, perhaps with a little on Bangladesh should NZ bat and lose early wickets. Of course if NZ bat and start amassing the runs, that Draw price can only do one way!
By:
jucel69
When: 06 Mar 19 05:27

Mar 5, 2019 -- 12:07AM, blackcap wrote:


That weather forecast has changed dramatically. Wellington does bat very well. Am going to keep my eye on this one. Tried to lay NZ at 1.15 but no takers.


https://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-5-day

Could this affect day 5 on Tuesday?

By:
detraveller
When: 06 Mar 19 18:33
Clearly I have missed the draw bus. Still 70 euro all green by laying NZ. Let's see how this pans out but no point backing the draw at 3.7
By:
detraveller
When: 06 Mar 19 18:33
I did not back the draw because I thought the game was on thursday and would start on time. Now I see friday is biblical and thats when the game starts.
By:
jucel69
When: 06 Mar 19 22:18

Mar 6, 2019 -- 6:33PM, detraveller wrote:


I did not back the draw because I thought the game was on thursday and would start on time. Now I see friday is biblical and thats when the game starts.


Still time DT, remember the Basin Reserve has no flood lights either!

By:
jucel69
When: 06 Mar 19 22:19

Mar 6, 2019 -- 10:18PM, jucel69 wrote:


Mar  6, 2019 --  6:33PM, detraveller wrote:I did not back the draw because I thought the game was on thursday and would start on time. Now I see friday is biblical and thats when the game starts.Still time DT, remember the Basin Reserve has no flood lights either!


https://twitter.com/BasinReserve

By:
ltfc fan
When: 06 Mar 19 22:49
The question is, how low will it go if Day 1 is a washout, no lights, and Basin Reserve having proved a real road last time out at a time when Bangladesh's batting looks like its strong point. Guesses?
By:
Bunsen79
When: 06 Mar 19 22:52
Disappointed I only got a few hundred at 8 and 6. The groundsman will surely leave a lot of grass after the last draw and the weather. If Bangladesh bat first they could be all out for under 150.
By:
jucel69
When: 06 Mar 19 23:00
Saturday looking iffy now as well
By:
jucel69
When: 06 Mar 19 23:05

Mar 6, 2019 -- 10:52PM, Bunsen79 wrote:


Disappointed I only got a few hundred at 8 and 6. The groundsman will surely leave a lot of grass after the last draw and the weather. If Bangladesh bat first they could be all out for under 150.


Yeh I'll use runs as hedges against it. Normally tough on day 1 and then eases out considerably as the game goes on

By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 00:18

Mar 6, 2019 -- 10:18PM, jucel69 wrote:


Mar  6, 2019 --  6:33PM, detraveller wrote:I did not back the draw because I thought the game was on thursday and would start on time. Now I see friday is biblical and thats when the game starts.Still time DT, remember the Basin Reserve has no flood lights either!


I think the first day being washed off is most definitely priced into this price of 3.7. Actually thats what I thought at 4.7 too.

I've done this before. Back draw and then watch it fly out. Do I take a risk here and back 3.7, then hope NZ bat first?

By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 00:23
No I will wait and see. Not backing the draw yet. Opportunities shall arise.
By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 00:33
No, the degenerate in me couldn't resist. Ive backed the draw.
By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 00:34
Devil
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 02:36
F*ck me look at the draw Shocked down to 3.25
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 02:37
For about 90 seconds just now there was quite a bif of activity on the draw, wonder if it was prompted by a released weather report.
By:
jucel69
When: 07 Mar 19 07:51
Forecast updated worse for Saturday too
By:
jucel69
When: 07 Mar 19 07:54
looks like two days of rain with Friday being the worst hit, especially a few hours of Noahesque stuff
By:
palchneru
When: 07 Mar 19 07:59
Another jump in NZ price, up over 1.7 and now back to 1.65.  Metservice forecast for Saturday hasn't changed though, doesn't look that wet to me.
By:
jucel69
When: 07 Mar 19 08:01

Mar 7, 2019 -- 7:59AM, palchneru wrote:


Another jump in NZ price, up over 1.7 and now back to 1.65.

By:
jucel69
When: 07 Mar 19 08:02

Mar 7, 2019 -- 7:59AM, palchneru wrote:


Another jump in NZ price, up over 1.7 and now back to 1.65.  Metservice forecast for Saturday hasn't changed though, doesn't look that wet to me.


> It has

By:
jucel69
When: 07 Mar 19 08:02
Go to 2 day forecast and then click next 48 hours.
Practically rain all day
By:
palchneru
When: 07 Mar 19 08:19
ok I see . I was looking at the 5 day.
By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 10:32
got excited looking at NZ at 1.96 but realized I only got my draw back matched partially.
370 green on red with 35 red on results.
By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 10:33
make that 2.04 NZ
By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 10:36
2.1
By:
jucel69
When: 07 Mar 19 13:28
Doesn't look like that much rain unfortunately. I've greened up now and will look to lay the draw at some point. '
Fancy we will get some play in the afternoon
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 14:45
F*ck me again , draw has been down to 1.91 when I was asleep. Shocked
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 14:49
26k matched on NZ at 1.3....they must be loving this
By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 16:30

Mar 7, 2019 -- 2:49PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


26k matched on NZ at 1.3....they must be loving this


that isnt a big amount

By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 16:31
plus they could be cashing out of their 1.2 lays like me.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 16:33

Mar 7, 2019 -- 4:30PM, detraveller wrote:


Mar  7, 2019 --  2:49PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:26k matched on NZ at 1.3....they must be loving thisthat isnt a big amount


It is if its 1 person which it likely is

By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 16:35

Mar 7, 2019 -- 4:31PM, detraveller wrote:


plus they could be cashing out of their 1.2 lays like me.


I'm drawing attention to the backer who is now holding a very bad bet.....I was being IRONIC!

By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 16:37
yes it makes sense that someone backed big as i dont see any big amounts matched around that price for him to be cashing out.
By:
detraveller
When: 07 Mar 19 16:49

Mar 7, 2019 -- 2:45PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


F*ck me again , draw has been down to 1.91 when I was asleep.


there was no liquidity. i drove it down from 2.04 to 1.93. Then cashed out for a loss at 2.1 Cool

By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 16:56
I can see 5k and 4.5K was matched earlier
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Mar 19 16:57
I have missed the boat anyway, all the juicy opportunities occurred when I was asleep. Sad
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