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VardonVoo.
17 Feb 19 18:40
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Date Joined: 21 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 4,396 | Blogger: VardonVoo.'s blog
This is a thread to keep track of instances in cricket matches where 1.01 was either fully or half-gubbed (i.e. traded at evens), plus times when the odds recovered to a useful level, say 1.2 upwards.

For Test and 1st Class matches we should also include outcomes that traded at 100+ (for more than a token amount) then came in below, say, 6s,

In addition let's keep a track of matches that flip-flopped one or more times having traded significantly away from evens between flips.

Once we have enough data, plus a count of how many BF markets there were for that format, or perhaps by tournament, we might gain some useful insights.

Just detail of the matches plus any comments in the same post - let's not lose the actual numbers amongst a load of chit-chat.
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Report VardonVoo. April 7, 2019 1:15 PM BST
IPL Match #20 RCB v Delhi Crappy-tools

RCB 150 Runs 1.02 gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178395
Report VardonVoo. April 7, 2019 2:50 PM BST
RCB also traded in size at 1000 then back down to 100 several times in the last two overs.
Report VardonVoo. April 8, 2019 7:48 PM BST
IPL Match #22 Lions v Sunrisers

Thai "Yes" traded around 50 for most of the match but suddenly shot off to 100 after a productive over followed by a weird stall in the scoring where it dipped below, trading between 55 to 95, then it shot out to 140 for £50 before shrinking all the way down to below 10s before settling on "No" after all.

Meanwhile in the Match Odds during the last few overs Punjab traded in size at 1.01 then eased higher and settled around 1.25ish for quite a while before moving to 1.50/160 even touching the high 1.80s then retreating, pausing to oscillate around 1.50 before King's got really close then finally clinched it with a ball to spare. Not quite a "half-gubbing" but a decent trading opportunity nonetheless.

First time I've observed the Thai for a whole game where it actually got pretty close to happening. Watching the scoring suddenly stall was really strange after it seemed to have only just started to accelerate shortly before. On this occasion I didn't have the radio feed so I was just flying on instruments.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/scorecard/1178397
Report VardonVoo. April 9, 2019 6:00 PM BST
IPL Match #23 KKR v CSK

KKR Runs

90  101 Reached evens
95  102 Reached evens
100  106 Exceeded evens
108  Scored
110  104 Gubbed
115  106 Gubbed
120  106 Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178398
Report VardonVoo. April 9, 2019 8:33 PM BST
Sorry, I missed out the decimal points above - 101, 102, etc should be 1.01, 1.02.....
Report VardonVoo. April 10, 2019 6:07 PM BST
Pakistan Cup - Federal Arreas vs Balochistan (D/N)

Fed 1.09 Gubbed with one major and multiple minor flip-flops.

espncricinfo.com/series/17924/game/1178886
Report VardonVoo. April 10, 2019 8:08 PM BST
IPL Match #24 Mumbai Indians v Kings XI

Kings scored 197

Mumbai 1.01 nearly Half-gubbed. Reached about 1.8ish I think. After losing a wicket in the final over they had to get four runs in as many balls. Down to the wire with 2 scored off the last delivery to win by one run.

Thai "NO" 1.01 Half-gubbed, reaching about 2.25

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178399
Report VardonVoo. April 10, 2019 9:22 PM BST
Several flip-flops in that match too. At least six convincing crossings of evens and a couple more touches.
Report VardonVoo. April 11, 2019 7:56 PM BST
IPL Match #25 Rajasthan Royals vs CSK

RR briefly touched 1.04, trading in the thousands at 1.1 (thanks Pecker) in the last couple of balls of a farcical final over with a 2-run no ball, a free-hit, a wide and a revoked wide involving a just-dismissed Dhoni coming back on to argue the wide, plus two sixes.

The market crossed evens several times during the match, suggesting yet again that backing short odds is not a sure-fire, stress-free route to riches in this particular brannd of T20 tournament.
Report VardonVoo. April 11, 2019 7:57 PM BST
Almost forgot the link - espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178400
Report VardonVoo. April 12, 2019 5:11 PM BST
Zimbabwe v UAE 2nd ODI

UAE 169/8 in a rain-curtailed 35 overs

Zimbabwe early 1.02 Half-Gubbed and then some, due partly to a rain-revised higher target of 210 in 35 overs, 40 runs more than the opposing side scored - not bad compensation to UAE for the rain interruption.

UAE 1.06 Gubbed as Zimbabwe reached the target after all.

A rare short-odds double-flipper of a match.


espncricinfo.com/series/19185/game/1179273
Report VardonVoo. April 12, 2019 7:18 PM BST
That target was reduced to 182 by D/L after bad light cut short the last three overs.
Report VardonVoo. April 14, 2019 1:17 PM BST
IPL Match #29 KKR v CSK

KKR 165 Runs 1.02 Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178404
Report VardonVoo. April 16, 2019 5:30 PM BST
IPL Match #32 Kings v Royals

Royals 170 Runs Traded at 1.01 before rising to 1.47+ early in the last over. 182 was scored.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178407
Report VardonVoo. April 17, 2019 5:20 PM BST
IPL Match #33 Sunriser Hyperbad v Chennai Spacker Kvntz

CSK Runs

135 1.02  Gubbed
135 1.03    "
145 1.05    "

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178408
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:12 PM BST
From Friday 19th April

Warwickshire v Yorkshire ended in a THAI so that was a 1.01 "NO" that got well and truly gubbed.

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167056
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:13 PM BST
From Saturday 20th April

1.01 Namibia (v Papua New Guinea) traded above 1.7 before going on to win, so not too far off a Half-Gubbing.

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174828
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:15 PM BST
In the ICC Second Division matches yesterday (Sunday)


1.06 Hong Kong (v Papua New Guinea) totally Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174833


1.06 USA (v Namibia) reached about 2.4 for more than a Half-Gubbing

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174831
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:17 PM BST
From Sunday's Royal London Cup matches

1.01 Somerset (v Glamorgan) reached 4.0 ish during a last wicket stand. Glamorgan came within two runs of winning.
With nearly two overs left Thai "NO" managed to get as high as 1.2

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167063


1.01 Leicester (v Worcesters) reached higher than 1.4 for a potential 40-bagger trade - Leics had set a target of 378 in 50 overs of which Worcester's last pair got within a reasonably respectable 40 runs (i.e. almost within 10%).

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167066
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:24 PM BST
IPL Match #39 RCB v CSK

Teams aren't easily trading as low as one normally expects - people have wised yup to crazy outcomes happening routinely in IPL.
However when it looked almost impossible for even MSD to save the day in the last few overs RCB dipped to 1.03 but then reached 5.5 as Dhoni chose to skip taking singles to stay on strike and whack boundaries every chance he got.

In the end RCB went on to defend the target, avoiding a THAI by one run - close to being a Full Gubbing so I hope every one made some money and or at least that nobody here got roasted.

Thai "NO" briefly touched 1.7 but traded in quantity around 1.3 for long enough to place trades.
Report VardonVoo. April 25, 2019 12:32 AM BST
From yesterday (24th April) ICC World Cup Div 2

Namibia 1.08 (v Oman) Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174838
Report VardonVoo. April 25, 2019 12:57 AM BST
Also from yesterday - Royal London One-Day Cup

Worcester 1.02 (v Durham) traded as high as 1.8 for a near Half=Gubbing
espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167075

Derbyshire 1.02 (v Lancashire) reached as high as 5.0+ for a Half-Gubbing that was nearly a full one.

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174838
Report VardonVoo. April 25, 2019 1:24 AM BST
IPL Match #41 from yesterday RCB v Kings XI

RCB somehow reached 202 after looking like they were struggling - there was even a period of 6 or 7 overs where no boundaries were scored.
200+ runs traded as high as 32

Kings started off strongly and looked like possibly reaching the target with ease. RCB had been hovering within 0.5 of evens for most of the match until late in the game when they reached 3.5 before going on to defend the target. Evens was crossed by a margin of at least 0.25-0.5 on no less than 8 occasions.
Kings would have needed six fours or four sixes off the last over but after scoring a six off the first ball the next two balls were wickets.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178417
Report VardonVoo. April 25, 2019 1:24 AM BST
Match #42, sorry!
Report VardonVoo. April 27, 2019 4:12 PM BST
From yesterday (Friday 26th April)

Royal London Cup

Yorkshire v Derbyshire ended in a Thai, so a 1.02 Gubbing there for "NO" but underneath that result was a Yorkshire 1.02 earlier in the match which could have been a Half or Full Gubbing for the sake of 1 run.

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167085
Report VardonVoo. April 30, 2019 7:27 PM BST
Today's Royal London matches

Lancashire 1.02 (v Durham) traded at over 4.0+ chasing what initially looked like a low target but proved quite tough and may even have ended up being a Full Gubbing but for an unlkely pair of back-to-back sixes from Graham Onions in the 48th over.

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167096

Essex 1.05 v Sussex was a Full Gubbing

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167095
Report VardonVoo. April 30, 2019 8:02 PM BST
IPL Match #49 RCB v Rajasthan Royals in a rain-reduced 5-over match

RR runs 65 1.01 traded and was overturned.

CMM traded at 1.01 and then got well above evens before hovering below 1.10 again during reduced play and grinding it's way back towards 1.01 but then rain interrupted again with ten balls to go and the match was abandoned. So that was a 1.01 "YES" Half-Gubbing followed by a "YES" Full Gubbing from at least as low as 1.03.
Report jucel69 May 1, 2019 2:05 AM BST
Anybody backing CMM yes at short odds in India at night deserves all they get.
No rain radars of any note in India and night skies. Even at the ground you wouldn't have been able to predict that rain at the end.
Report VardonVoo. May 1, 2019 9:14 PM BST
I was very surprised to see it that short, but with only about 3 overs to go I was worried that the radio feed may have been delayed longer than I thought and that the match might have been nearly over. But I guess even heavy rain before the last ball would technically be enough if they had to go off and didn't get back on again. Ever since Big Suze it's hard to trust umps not to continue playing in rain though these days.

Today's Royal London match between Northants and Yorkshire:-

Northants made 351 all out but Yorks got to 128/1 after a little short of 21 overs. A lengthy rain delay and Yorks being well-ahead on D/L made the odds trade like a CMM with Yorks hovering around 1.3 then going as high as 1.6 before dipping to 1.05 shortly before the rain abated (or before it became apparent that the ground could be dry in time for more play) - once the game resumed the odds were very volatile, spiking as high as 8.0+ and crashing back down again as wickets tumbled during a run chase that was achieved with only two balls to go.


espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167100
Report Cardinal Scott May 2, 2019 6:48 PM BST
Sussex in early trouble chasing a fearsome 356 v Hamps sent Hamps to 1.01 then a magnificent recovery in large part down to David Wiese got Sussex down to 1.08 and then Hamps stormed back and look like winning.
Report Cardinal Scott May 2, 2019 6:50 PM BST
Why did the BBC extend the delay on these on-line streams....many people say they were right up with play a few years ago and now they are sometimes 2 overs behind.    Did some BBC anti gambling zealot/puritan/w*nker deliberately do this to thwart us?
Report VardonVoo. May 2, 2019 7:24 PM BST

May 2, 2019 -- 6:48PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Sussex in early trouble chasing a fearsome 356 v Hamps sent Hamps to 1.01 then a magnificent recovery in large part down to David Wiese got Sussex down to 1.08 and then Hamps stormed back and look like winning.


Thanks for contributing. I thought the smell of burning Martyr might have been making people stay away Cry.

What a great match that was! For a change I was actually all over the 1.01, not just observing the near miracle from the sidelinew. Sensibly I scaled out and kept a good green on both outcomes and caught a bit of the 1.1 on Sussex before that cricial wicket.

Think I've done OK out of the Royal London Cup on balance, all from my standard play of laying ultra-low odds and trading some out on rises or running free bets. Only exception was laying the 1.3 in size yesterday when the rain break brought Yorks, who were miles behind yet ahead of the rate, artificially short due to D/L and made the match odds trade like the weather market (CMM).

(As suggested by Jucel) here's the game link to today's thrilling entertainment:-

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167104

I'm not sure about the streaming delay. It's a processing and buffering thing I would have thought, which probably gets worse as the internet gets more and more crammed full of commercial sh!t. Only my broadcast TV-radio feed is close to being up with the action. I can't see why a stream would be deliberately delayed further than the already existing delay. But it's a question worth asking on the Beeb twitter feed maybe (if possible)?

Report VardonVoo. May 2, 2019 7:41 PM BST
IPL Match #50  Mumbai Injuries vs Sunrisers Hyperbad

Thai "NO" 1.02 was Fully Gubbed after trading around 1.10ish for a while, giving plenty of time for greens to insure" themselves by paying a "Tythe" (a nice but coincidental historical rhyme but not related to "Tie" - it means "a tenth" and was a tax on farm produce in the middle ages - kept in a "Tythe Barn", supposedly in case of a bad harvest).

Commies were talking about a Super Over after the Super Over if the first is a Thai, but Mumbai got two wickets which is "all out" in a Super-Over, so they only needed 9 runs to win, got a six off the first ball and walked it.
Report Cardinal Scott May 2, 2019 7:44 PM BST
"Only my broadcast TV-radio feed is close to being up with the action" Indeed but it enrages me when the cut away for Formula One practise sessions, Rugby League $hite, womens football, athletics and all other kinds of garbage.  We have got a whole summer of that to endure. Angry
Report Whisperingdeath May 3, 2019 4:07 PM BST
Where is Grant

POORAN!
Report VardonVoo. May 3, 2019 7:32 PM BST
Ireland v England Only ODI

England 1.02 Half-Gubbed - traded in size as high as 2.5 after wickets fell in fairly quick succession. Ireland started out well in their innings but fell away a bit leaving a target of only 199. Another 50 runs would have been quite a challenge for England.

espncricinfo.com/series/18956/game/1161014
Report Cardinal Scott May 3, 2019 7:41 PM BST
I wont go into details but will disclose at Eng 5 down I was a very unhappy human being.
Report Cardinal Scott May 3, 2019 7:55 PM BST
Kudos VV! ...This thread has been very helpful in showing how often low odds gubbings occur.   

Possibly the best thread on the cricket forum since

http://community.betfair.com/cricket/go/thread/view/94046/30871617/value-bet...
Report VardonVoo. May 4, 2019 4:03 AM BST
Thanks for the honour, Your Eminence! I'm glad if the thread has been helpful to people. Importantly, I think what's also noticeable is how often low odds gubbings nearly occur, or at least get more than half-way. Gamblers love 10-1 shots that come in, but how many get the same thrill from laying 1.01 and backing it when it pops up to 1.1 or even to 1.2? It just doesn't seem as exciting as a full flip but they happen much more often. Too often to list here, but "Half-Gubbings" are always due a mention because a 50-50 bet is by definition an equally likely outcome at "fair" odds, so once you get to evens a Gubbing or non-Gubbing should have been levelled out either way.

That value-betting thread was an interesting re-read - I think it's where Fatslogger first coined the terms for the highly useful concepts of  "outcome value" and "trading value"- shame it just petered out. Possibly worth resurrecting it in the light of two years more experience for its contributors.

Significantly, since I started this thread my non-Test cricket trading has become noticeably profitable, even after a one-off clumsy big-hit loss. It might be a temporary blip but what I've been doing is trading with more confidence and for bigger positions. I find too large or too small a position messes with one's discipline and testing ideas for months with peanut stakes makes it hard to quantify the results without being a spreadsheet nerd, which I've attempted with remarkable sporadicity. On the other hand, trading with enough to go "Ouch!" when you lose and "WOWSER!" when you win somehow focusses the attention and maybe keeping this thread going has pushed me into wanting to prove a meaningful point beyond just being able to say "well wasn't that an unusual result?". Or maybe I just got Foxtrot Oscared with noticing so many short-odds gubbings and near-gubbings without having a piece of the action.

I think it also helps to have several markets going on at once, so I'm loving the co-incidence of The Royal London Cup/IPL/South Africa T20 trinity. One long-shot a day could take weeks to pay off but four or more matches a day, along with all their manifold and various side markets gives plenty to chew on. Losing, say, 2 bet units in four out of five matches and making 10 on the fifth is a good day's work but losing the same 2 on four consecutive days of one game each inevitably means betting smaller on the fifth day and not making the full 10 units. so you might not even end up scratching. That's a whole discussion in itself for Kelly bettors (i.e should you bet the appropriate Kelly percentage of the whole bank for each of several concurrent, as opposed to sequential, events, or should you first reduce the bank by roughly the amount of all of the proposed bets before calculating the appropriate bet size? In theory 100 concurrent Kelly 1% bets could otherwise bust you, which Kelly is suppposed to prevent happening).

For anyone reading the thread that thinks "lay short odds then go and walk the dog" - I haven't done the stats (anyone else is welcome to!) but I have my suspicions as to whether such a simple strategy would be profitable. If it was then surely all the big banks that "buy money" at short odds would be busted very quickly and there would be less opportunity for the rest of us. So the value is likely to arise from the trading possibilities and the active "work" involved therein rather than the more passive "outcome value" of the lay. That means the profit is likely to be at the expense of a wider cross-section of punter, rather than just from the big banks, which is obviously way more sustainable if true. Nobody backing 1.01 shots would choose to continue to do so, nor still have the money to, if they lost 100 times their potential win several times within a short series of bets.

But let's say Mr Big-Wad backs at 1.01 which Mr Smart-Arse lays. Wickets fall and the market briefly spikes up to 1.10. Mr Smart-Arse backs at this price against Mr Panic-Lay who wants to lock in his profit after casually backing at evens against Mr Coin-Toss.

The short-odds team goes on to win so Mr Big-Wad is still in the game, wad intact plus 1% profit, Mr Panic-Lay keeps most of his green and is motivated to keep playing, convinced he'll win big one day and Mr Coin-Toss lost his full bet but will win about half his similar bets minus any commission and of course his own lock-in/panic lays, so he's happy to keep gambling. In this example Mr Smart-Arse's profit comes from the small-time punter who funds his weekend gambling fun from a regular PAYE job, rather than from Mr Big-Wad. Mr Big-Wad unemotionally backs a hundred 1.01 shots daily and loses his shirt at worst about once every 102 games, so he's happy with his average yearly return made up of a tiny percent per day compounded up to a respectable annual figure. Meanwhile, his continued presence in the market provides the essential liquidity needed by everybody else.

And that is my theowy what-it-is (that-it-is).
Report VardonVoo. May 4, 2019 1:22 PM BST
IPL Match #53 Delhi Crapitals v Random-Chance Royals

Royals 120 Runs 1.04 Gubbed
(and, worryingly, 115 runs not marked as a "Winner" by BF despite their own score-feed showing this total).
Report jucel69 May 5, 2019 12:34 AM BST
VV there are a lot of 1.01 blowouts on inns runs over a year (liquidity can be a problem)
It's just the timing of them from a betting perspective that is difficult.
EG 150/160/170 may all be 1.01 if the batting side is in a formidable position but the final score is 168 and you chose to lay 160 not 170. You would need to cover 30 runs (150-170) each innings and even then the liquidity isn't always there.
Also 1.01 on runs to bet against feels so counter intuitive & impossible at the time, obviously not in hindsight!
The last 1.01 on inns runs was RCB.
With Kholi and AB blasting there's no way in the world you could imagine they would get less than 65.
They were 35 off 9 balls!

However I would say it's the way to go and it is worth merit in play. You get many more 1.01 gubbings on run lays than 100s backing. In fact you don't often see odds of 100s to back on the run lines and if so it would be for pence.
Report jucel69 May 5, 2019 12:36 AM BST
Also depends if you have the mentality for lots and lots of losses in a row before you hit a jackpot
Report Cardinal Scott May 5, 2019 12:44 PM BST
99.9% certain there has been some orchestrated games in this years IPL, maybe not outrght fixing of the whole game but passages of play to stretch it out to the last over or even last ball.
Report Cardinal Scott May 5, 2019 12:58 PM BST

May 5, 2019 -- 12:44PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


99.9% certain there has been some orchestrated games in this years IPL, maybe not outrght fixing of the whole game but passages of play to stretch it out to the last over or even last ball.


This posted in wrong thread Blush

Report VardonVoo. May 5, 2019 1:13 PM BST
Posting in the wrong thread is a "Cardinal Sin".
Report VardonVoo. May 5, 2019 1:29 PM BST

May 5, 2019 -- 12:36AM, jucel69 wrote:


Also depends if you have the mentality for lots and lots of losses in a row before you hit a jackpot


I compare it to a Poker player min-betting suited connectors or set-mining with a low pair. Most times you miss the flop and fold, sometimes you get a modest piece and occasionally you hit hard against another strong hand. The advantage here though is you don't have to commit more money - you're only ever risking the green resulting fro your initial stake. In a sense Poker is a game about winning the blinds as with no blinds (and no ante) there would be no reason to bet. So winning and losing lots of small bets is the norm, you just remember the occasional big wins more.

I used to work on commission for years - the majority of appointments were a no-deal, and most that did paid only a minimum flat fee or a small commission  basically for filling out the paperwork, and these would be your bread and butter to cover petrol, phone calls etc, then once or twice a month you'd pull off one of those big deals netting £500+ or maybe even a grand or more. It's a precarious living if you only do a few appointments a month, but if you keep busy you can do well on average. Combined with Test match betting it was a good stage in my life.

Report VardonVoo. May 5, 2019 1:31 PM BST
IPL Match #55 Kings v Chennai

Kings Runs

175 1.02 Gubbed
180 1.05 Gubbed
Report VardonVoo. May 5, 2019 1:32 PM BST
And the link to it - espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178430
Report VardonVoo. May 5, 2019 1:39 PM BST
Sorry, that was CSK's runs. Target set for Kings - 171.
Report VardonVoo. May 5, 2019 2:50 PM BST
Not sure if I should include this one - Royal London Kent v Essex CMM  Yes 1.01 took out several requests for odds up to 1.8.
No rain in sight so I assume it was a sausage trade.
Report VardonVoo. May 5, 2019 2:52 PM BST
Ireland v West Indies

WI Runs 390 1.02 Gubbed, not sure if it was for very much though.

espncricinfo.com/series/19067/game/1168508
Report VardonVoo. May 6, 2019 12:40 PM BST
Did anyone note the starting odds for SA v Pak Wimminz ODI? I'm shocked that Pak won, but even more appalled that the whole thing was over so quickly. SA were all out for 63 runs!! Gash cricket indeed!
Report Cardinal Scott May 6, 2019 6:38 PM BST
Nothants about to be defeated by Notts after trading as low as 1.05
Report Cardinal Scott May 6, 2019 6:41 PM BST

May 6, 2019 -- 6:38PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Nothants about to be defeated by Notts after trading as low as 1.05


Royal London One Day Cup

Breath of fresh air not being paranoid about corruption, scripted finishes and other nonsense.........Best country for cricket trading ...Dear Old BLIGHTY! Grin

Report VardonVoo. May 6, 2019 6:45 PM BST
Royal London Cup Northants v Notts

Northants 1.05 Gubbed

The odds dipped to 1.05 twice with a rise to 1.5+ in between

Very close match in the end - won by the last batting pair with only 3 balls left.


espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167115
Report VardonVoo. May 6, 2019 7:03 PM BST
Supernovas v Trailblazers - Women's T20

I didn't have a feed so just followed it via Cricinfo.

Trailblazers went realy short before the last over, sub 1.07 I think, then the odds shot up to 100 as Supernovas' Kaur, needing 19 off the last over suddenly started hitting boundaries - it which went 4,4,0,4,4,OUT!

This comp could be interesting!

espncricinfo.com/series/19201/game/1181893
Report VardonVoo. May 6, 2019 7:14 PM BST
By the way that means a sub 1.1 on the winning team was nearly Fully Gubbed AND a 1.01 on the opposite team WAS Fully Gubbed!!

Annoyingly I'd cancelled my resting bets to avoid being hoovered, so I didn't make the once-in-a-blue-moon windfall possible from  these kind of matches.
Report VardonVoo. May 7, 2019 2:21 PM BST
@ Scotty Breath of fresh air not being paranoid about corruption, scripted finishes and other nonsense.........Best country for cricket trading ...Dear Old BLIGHTY!

It's entirely possible that sub-continent cricket fans watching matches in England might say the equivalent about their cricket (but we know they're wrong, of course Cool ).
Report VardonVoo. May 7, 2019 2:30 PM BST
West Indies v Bangladesh ODI

WI Runs 160 runs 1.06 Half-Gubbed (traded back up to 2.0+ before crashing back down again).
(170 runs only got as low as 1.14).

espncricinfo.com/series/19067/game/1168509
Report peckerdunne May 7, 2019 8:26 PM BST
€72,223
1.09    €1,600        €66,818
1.10    €29        €49,029
1.11    €13        €57,026
1.12    €49        €60,993
1.13            €62,349
1.14            €70,467
1.15            €80,985
1.16            €90,044
1.17            €171,755
1.18            €92,537
1.19            €60,814
1.2            €76,758
1.21            €76,217
1.22            €65,829
1.23            €139,197
1.24    €12        €111,707
1.25    €96        €57,778
1.26            €44,411

Sussex
Report VardonVoo. May 7, 2019 8:57 PM BST
Yeah, this Royal London Cup has had a few good close matches, hasn't it?

Sussex was the only Full Gubbing today. 

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167118


Kent made a good effort chasing 381 by Middx who traded up from 1.05 but only got above 1.5 briefly.

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167119
Report VardonVoo. May 8, 2019 2:14 PM BST
Gash Cricket T20 Tournament in India

Trailblazers v Velocity

After the Double-Gubbing the other day this one is worth a mention. With a target of 112 Velocity got to 77/2 after 14 overs and were cruising it. Trailblazers' odds soon headed to the stratosphere and traded at 1,000 then with two runs left to get FIVE wickets fell in seven consecutive balls with no runs. Trailblazers traded below 100 for a possible ten-bagger.

espncricinfo.com/series/19201/game/1181894
Report VardonVoo. May 8, 2019 2:31 PM BST
I should put "Double-Gubbing" in quotes as obviously you can't have sub 1.1 odds on each side both losing but it captures the idea of both sides trading very short then going above evens and then trading short on the oppoosite side.

Some, maybe all, of this T20 tourney is Day/Night, which goes some way to explain that wicket McFlurry.
Report VardonVoo. May 8, 2019 7:22 PM BST
Pak v Eng CMM YES had been as high as 1.8 before the match, came down to 1.2 then up to 1.4 but dipped to 1.08 as the weather appeared to clear, then rose towards evens and stayed in the high 2s-to-mid-3s for most of the latter part of the day. Very deceptive moves in the market. Easy to get wrong-footed when trying to reduce a red.

As usual, been ****ed over by the unreliable weather radar. The "forecast" had it all narrowly missing a few hours ago.

Also I'm right of the edge of it, so I had blue sky in SW London when rain had supposedly passed here and was now falling at the ground. Seems there was more behind it just North of me. Also, going against my normally rigid policy, I'd backed YES at moderately short odds and added to it on the rises, trying to recoup losses from elsewhere. For that reason greed and false confidence in the radar prediction deterred me from cashing out at 1.08 like I should have done. Bad day - undone a lot of good work. Bah! Humbug!
Report VardonVoo. May 8, 2019 7:25 PM BST
I should add that low-odds Pak runs (which I stupidly didn't even think to lay as a hedge) that traded in meaningful size and were Gubbed were as follows:-

90 1.01
100 1.01
110 1.02
120 1.07
130 1.04
150 1.08

espncricinfo.com/series/18664/game/1152841
Report VardonVoo. May 8, 2019 7:37 PM BST
...right on the edge of it...
Report jucel69 May 8, 2019 10:50 PM BST

May 8, 2019 -- 7:25PM, VardonVoo. wrote:


I should add that low-odds Pak runs (which I stupidly didn't even think to lay as a hedge) that traded in meaningful size and were Gubbed were as follows:- 90 1.01 100 1.01110 1.02120 1.07130 1.04150 1.08espncricinfo.com/series/18664/game/1152841


Would have been void VV, not 20 overs completed.

Report VardonVoo. May 9, 2019 11:16 AM BST
Good point! At least that saved me a few quid on a reckless overs bet that one more over would have had no chance of helping..
Report VardonVoo. May 10, 2019 9:01 PM BST
Royal London Cup - Lancs v Middx

Middx made a monumental come-back after being 24/5

Lancs 1.01 got as high as 1.7+ before a vital couple of wickets fell, though having dropped back to as low as 1.04 the odds reachead into the mid 1.3s again before a tragic bad umpire decision looked like scuppering Middlesex's last chance. In fact the odds dipped sub 1.1s but reached mid 1.2s again before a stupid run-out off a would-have-been wide rather put the kybosh on things. When the final wicket fell Middx had come within 20 runs of winning. Another thrilling Royal London match. This format between county teams, all of which are used to the climate and conditions has seemed a lot more competetitive and interesting than most 50-over matches between international teams (i.e. ODIs).

The THai market was also quite lively though didn't get above 1.1.
Report VardonVoo. May 11, 2019 7:04 PM BST
Gash T20 Supernovas v Velocity

Supers 1.04 flipped to Velocity 1.18 or lower then back again for a well more than Half-Gubbing.

espncricinfo.com/series/19201/game/1181896

Apparently before this tourney started one of the women commented about the team they'd been chosen to play, saying something like  "I've never heard of Velo City. What country is it in?"
Report VardonVoo. May 11, 2019 7:21 PM BST
England v Pakistan 2nd ODI

Eng 1.05 got to about 2.8 before they managed to defended the target. Pak came impressively close.

espncricinfo.com/series/18664/game/1152842
Report VardonVoo. May 12, 2019 4:20 PM BST
Women SA v Pak 3rd ODI

How dodgy is this?

First innings or earlier:-

Tie NO looks like 1.02 was nearly Half-Gubbed several times, i.e. 1.02, nearly evens, 1.02 again, nearly evens again, etc. Three spikes on the graph. Nothing unusual on the "YES" side.

No idea what happened here - I thought possibly a sausage trade early in the first innings or maybe even before the match, or possibly a mis-coded bot that went hay-wire. SA steadily ground down from 1.4 to score 256/6.

Odds To Lay Traded
1.01        £1,000    £678
1.02        £207    £1,415
1.03        £200   
1.08        £8   
1.22            £18
1.83            £4
1.92            £66
1.94            £39
1.96            £3
1.97            £97


So then onto the second innings where Pak lost 3 wickets within their first 40 runs and the SA odds smashed through 1.01 then range-traded from between about 1.01-1.04 and 1.06-1.10 for a while. As Pak steadily rebuilt their position the SA odds started climbimg through 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 getting as high as 1.8 before crashing back down.

Match result was a Tie!  Normally this would simply be an extraordinary result for Pak, but combined with the highly irregular pre-match or first innings Tie trading this looks somewhat dodgier.


espncricinfo.com/series/8674/game/1177017
Report VardonVoo. May 12, 2019 7:10 PM BST
IPL FINAL -  Mumbling Indians v Chennai Super Kvnts

I can't get the trading history to work but I suspect 150 runs may have traded at 1.01. I'm sure I saw 1.06 offered to lay.
So that was a low-odds Gubbing by a one measly run.

Tie YES traded below 50 so NO was always higher than 1.02 but a trade at 1.03 would have reached as high as 3.5 for a Half-Gubbing.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1181768
Report VardonVoo. May 13, 2019 2:27 PM BST
ODI Tri Series West Indies v Bangladesh

Not sure of this cos the BF trading history still isn't working but I think 250 runs traded below 1.06 for a Full Gubbing.

espncricinfo.com/series/11122/game/1168512
Report VardonVoo. May 17, 2019 4:12 PM BST
Apologies for any I may have missed but as far as I know there were only a few low odds that popped up to 1.2, 1.4 etc.
North Mumbai Panthers went from 1.01 to 1.59+ the other day.

Today's Mumbai Premier League match between and ARCs Andheri v Shivali Park Lions
ARCS traded at 1.09, flipped over to a low of 1.17 on the other side and then went on to win, for a very thorough Half-Gubbing.
I missed laying the 1.09 by two ticks though (grrrr!!)

No link as these matches are not featured on CricInfo
Report VardonVoo. May 17, 2019 9:13 PM BST
Bangladesh v West Indies ODI

Completed Match "YES" low 1.04, flipped to "NO" 1.26 then flipped again and hit "YES 1.01" before stabilising around 1.15ish for a while before grinding back down to 1.01 for a Half-Gubbing.

140 runs 1.02 was Half-Gubbed during the rain stoppage at 20.1 overs, reaching as high as 10!
150 1.04 almost Half-Gubbed at 1.9
160 1.02 Gubbed at 3.0

Interesting that people were prepared to back and lay 140 at crazy odds with 9 runs needed, perhaps on the off-chance of maybe either only a few more balls being bowled to complete the over, or none at all, but were not prepared to try to back/lay  higher scores. Not sure about the logic there. I would have thought they'd come back on for at least a few overs or not come back on at all, going straight into a shortened West Indies innings.

espncricinfo.com/series/11122/game/1168514

Eng v Pak 4th ODI

(Aside: it shows the lax attitude to the exchange that BF doesn't have a live score-feed for such a high profile match. When quizzed about feeds they said they'd made a policy decision not to show ANY feed rather than an unreliable one - they didn't really have an answer as to why they just can't monitor their iffy feed against alternative and fairly reliable free sources such as CricInfo and CricBuzz, nor have they yet implemented a suggestion I've been making for years that they show a blinking green light next to the feed, which could turn solid red if the hand-shaking pauses, alerting you to the score being stuck/delayed).

Eng 1.06 Half-Gubbed (peaking at 4.1). Chased down with only 3 balls to spare.

espncricinfo.com/series/18664/game/1152844
Report VardonVoo. May 18, 2019 2:59 PM BST
SA Women v Pak Women

SA 1.09 Half-Gubbing peaking at 3.0

espncricinfo.com/series/19158/game/1177019
Report VardonVoo. May 20, 2019 11:39 AM BST
Yesterday's summary:-

England v Pakistan 5th ODI

Eng 360 Runs 1.07 Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/18664/game/1152845

**************

Mumbai Premier League

1.08 North Mumbai Gubbed (v ARCS Andheri)

1.05 NaMo Bandra Blasters (v Shvaji Park Lions) Half-Gubbed @ 3.4 peak

cricbuzz.com/cricket-series/2832/mumbai-premier-league-2019/matches

**************

SA Women v Pak Women 3rd T20I

SA Women was a Gubbing but I'm not sure if their odds got below 1.1.

espncricinfo.com/series/19158/game/1177020
Report VardonVoo. May 21, 2019 6:48 PM BST
Mumbai Premier League

SoBo Supersonics v NaMO bandra Blasters

NaMo 1.03 got as high as 1.75

cricbuzz.com/live-cricket-scores/22609

ARCS Andheri v Eagle Thane Stikers

1.02 (1.01 partially matched) got as high as 1.65+

cricbuzz.com/live-cricket-scores/22610

Not quite a half-gubbing in either case, but worth a mention cos this tourney has had several very volatile matches that were well worth trading.
Report VardonVoo. May 22, 2019 3:42 PM BST
Lancashire v Worcester (4-day match)

In the final chase Lancs 1.01 briefly spiked as high as 1.7 after a couple of quick wickets. Not sure of the amounts though.

espncricinfo.com/series/8204/game/1166983
Report Cardinal Scott May 22, 2019 3:59 PM BST
That women's T20 was volatile, I still don't know who won....I better go and check SA were sub 1.2 before Pak became about that price before SA returned to about that price......I nabbed a small win, I better go and check who won.
Report VardonVoo. May 23, 2019 12:12 AM BST
It was SA that won in the end but not before going below 1.2 then above 5s on two occasions.Thanks for posting. I've been overlooking  the multi-flippers that didn't dip below 1.1 - my bad.

I'm sure Pak Women used to be a total right-off until recently but these last few battles have been pretty close.
Report VardonVoo. May 23, 2019 6:14 PM BST
Oops! I meant "write-off" there.
Report VardonVoo. May 24, 2019 2:33 PM BST
World Cup

Pak (v Afghan) Innings Runs
270 1.05 Gubbed
280 1.05 Gubbed

Afghan pegged Pak back despite being a bit sloppy at times.

espncricinfo.com/series/18664/game/1173345
Report VardonVoo. May 24, 2019 6:11 PM BST
Follow-up to the above:-

Afghan went sub 1.1 before losing a wicket or two and moving up to 1.4 or so then, looking like they would chase it down easily, they traded in size at 1.01 before losing wickets in quick succession and going up to nearly 1.4 again. Quite tradeable, methunk.
Report Cardinal Scott May 24, 2019 6:24 PM BST
I had left the house and took my green before all that happened..........phew!
Report Cardinal Scott May 24, 2019 6:26 PM BST
I believe yesterday Nothants engineered some sort of gubbing too by not losing v Slurry....I dont know how low Slurry went.
Report VardonVoo. May 24, 2019 7:32 PM BST
Mumbai Premier League Semi-Final

North Mumbai Panthers 1.01 (v ARCS Andheri) counts as a Virtual Half-Gubbing as the odds went as high as 3.5+ so a lot of peeps would have traded out and then bought a Thai Green Curry which was available quite late at 1.05ish but peaked in volume in the upper 1.2s to mid 1.3s in the last over.

@ Cardinal Sin - Northants v Sussex and Kent v Surrey both drew, but I don't think anything went usefully short, unfortunately. Kent nearly blew it late in the final session with a couple of wickets but Northants had 4 wickets in hand so the trading there wasn't all that exciting. It's a shame the liquidity is so poor on these matches. Sometimes you end up having to take poor prices just cos they are there or else risk not scaling out of a position at all and being fully exposed on the last day - double-plus ungood.
Report Cardinal Scott May 24, 2019 9:27 PM BST
Yes it was Sussex not Slurry they were playing.....mind plays tricks Blush
Report VardonVoo. May 25, 2019 1:07 AM BST
Understandable considering both matches played out almost the same way in parallel for most of the day. I always used to find it interestingly uncanny when that happened across different time-zones and climates. It used to be quite common back in the old days when Tests rarely finished before Day 5.
Report VardonVoo. May 25, 2019 7:02 PM BST
Slightly outside the price range but Eng was a 1.11 Gubbing v Aus in the WC warm-up.

espncricinfo.com/series/19134/game/1173347
Report VardonVoo. May 26, 2019 7:39 PM BST
World Cup warm-ups

Pak v Bang CMM YES 1.11 suffered from serious Gubbage as the match was abandoned.

SA v Windies CMM YES 1.07 also got Gubbed after several flip-flops and a deceptively promising-looking restart.
Report VardonVoo. May 27, 2019 10:26 PM BST
Inter-Provincial 50-Over Cup - taking place in Ireland, to be sure, to be sure.

Northern Knights v North West Warriors

Knights traded for a pittance at levels down to 1.05 as but the big volume trade was at 1.12. 188 looked like an easy target yet after a lengthy rain interruption they were set a seemingly much harder 20-over score of 111 which they missed by only 3 runs.

espncricinfo.com/series/11083/game/1178133
Report VardonVoo. June 4, 2019 7:12 PM BST
Apologiies if I've missed any others while Rolad Garros has been on but today was a 1.09 Full Gubbing of Afghan (v Sri Lanka) with several flips.

espncricinfo.com/series/8039/game/1144489
Report VardonVoo. June 6, 2019 2:19 PM BST
From yesterday

Sussex 1.03 v Middlesex Half-Gubbed peaking at 3.5

espncricinfo.com/series/8204/game/1166991
Report VardonVoo. June 6, 2019 2:20 PM BST
Today Aus v Windies

290 runs 1.09 Gubbed
Report VardonVoo. June 9, 2019 2:40 PM BST
That Aus/Windies match had about 14 distinct crosssings of evens, a dozen of which got to at least 0.25 either side.

Today India v Aus

India 350 Runs £3,000+ traded at 1.07 then traded almost at evens for the last two or three balls, so I'm calling that a Half-Gubbing as we're a bit short of action lately.
Report VardonVoo. June 12, 2019 2:10 PM BST
Aus v Pak

Aus Runs

310 1.01 Gubbed
320 1.05 @ 5k Gubbed
Report VardonVoo. June 15, 2019 5:42 PM BST
Aus v Sri Lanka

Aus 1.04 reached slightly short of 1.9 for an almost Half-Gubbing.

********************

Afghan v SA

Afghan Runs

130 1.03 (£1.8k) Gubbed
Report VardonVoo. June 16, 2019 2:59 PM BST
India v Pak

India Runs (odds affected by rain-break).

310 1.01 (£7k)  Semi-Gubbed @ 2.5+
320 1.03 (£43k) Semi-Gubbed @ 3.0+

Target set 337
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