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ItsMeSwaddle
29 Jan 19 10:49
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Date Joined: 19 Oct 15
| Topic/replies: 10,284 | Blogger: ItsMeSwaddle's blog
Realistically it’s a difficult operation to fix a cricket game

But the last few days I’ve noticed a fair bit of money that’s been spot on.

Money backing teams at prices that make no sense.

For example today’s fixture Rangpur and Raj in the BPL, 2 points between them in the table.

Prices theoretically should be 4v6 against 6/4.

So wanting interest I’ve backed Raj 2.84

To come back a few minutes later and see there is a chunk available at 3.35

I get it, odds move, but who is wanting to back RR at 4/9

Either madness or very smart as you know the result
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Report ItsMeSwaddle January 29, 2019 12:15 PM GMT
And then Won the toss and batted.
Report Charlie January 29, 2019 7:20 PM GMT
I think people are paranoid over match fixing but I'm probably in a minority of one.

Rangpur had convincingly won their last four games which I think coincided with AB joining them. He scored a ton in 50 balls yesterday and Hales scored 80 odd. Rajshahi had won two and lost two of their previous four. Rangpur are a far better team in my, and the market's, opinion.

As for the odds I'd have liked 1.67 on them but when I looked they were around 1.48/9. In BPL, as in most other T20 leagues, the odds lengthen on the team batting first.

Rajshahi batting first was unexpected but if they'd bowled and been chasing 190/200 they wouldn't have had a prayer.

Where's the fix?
Report peckerdunne January 29, 2019 7:44 PM GMT
A very fair assessment by Charles I'd have thought.

Can always just take the view every T20 game has a fix of some kind as I do,then just carry on regardless and not be disappointed or have anything to quibble.
Report Charlie January 29, 2019 8:43 PM GMT
I agree pecker. If someone knows a game is about to be fixed (not after the event) then I wish they'd tell me. Not disrespecting the OP but if he thought it was going to be fixed then why not lump on Rangpur?

It would be interesting to have a thread (maybe this one) where people tell us the fixes before they happen not after!
Report ItsMeSwaddle January 29, 2019 10:56 PM GMT
Oh no sorry this thread is pre game.

We will have to agree to disagree.

I think you are right, it’s paranoia and probably not a fix.

But it does make you wonder when someone happily chunks 2.8 out to 3.4 in one go pre game.

Which took about 70k I believe.


If you look at them match ups and want to be on a 4/9 shot that’s fine with me and your reasoning is valid.
Report ItsMeSwaddle January 29, 2019 10:59 PM GMT
To clear my thoughts up I suspected it’s was fixed

So my opinions were to cash out at a loss
Lump more on, I’m getting 3.35 about in my opinion a 7/4 max shot
Or let it ride, (this is what I did)

It’s not a case of sore losing here, Infact I haven’t even left a comment post match.
Report Charlie January 30, 2019 8:25 AM GMT
IMS
I didn't bet on the game at all. Normally I start by backing the team batting first if their odds are over evens. If their odds drift significantly I back them again. On this occasion I couldn't bring myself to back against a top four of Gayle (even though he's not much cop these days), Hayles, Roussouw and AB.

In RR's previous game they were chasing 187 and were 5 for 2 after two overs. Then AB and Hales went berserk. Was this a fix? If I was going to fix a game this is one of the ways I'd do it!

As pecker said above: Can always just take the view every T20 game has a fix of some kind as I do,then just carry on regardless and not be disappointed or have anything to quibble.


I wouldn't go that far but I can see why people look at games and think they are fixed. I just choose to believe they're not.

If you felt uneasy about the game, as you did, then I suppose you should have redded out or reversed onto RR.
Report jucel69 January 30, 2019 11:38 AM GMT
Fixed games would be easy to bet on, I don't think whole games are fixed at this level.
There was a league a few years ago where there were wholly fixed games and the odds moved way more dramatically than that and what happened on the field bore no relevance to what was happening in the odds.
i.e a six would shorten the bowling side etc
It's individuals and cliques of players in a team that do the fixing at this level
It will always be under performing.
If a captain is involved then it is more obvious.
There was a BPL game the other day that was very dodgy.
160 off the last 10 and almost 30 wides. Mamadullah (capt) chucked one for 5 wides and that was the catalyst.
I can tell when a bowler suddenly starts bowling at 70/80 % or bowling throw downs, especially a spinner. You can see they don't follow through with their action and put no revs on the ball.
Thing is that most people betting on BF are from the west where corruption/cheating is massively frowned upon and incurs huge penalties/jail time.
I know from over 10 years in Asia that it is the norm and acceptable. It's a cost of doing business.
Nobody bats an eyelid at cheating or bribes etc
Report jucel69 January 30, 2019 11:44 AM GMT
The thing that is hard to distinguish is between cheating and just pure ineptness/braindead play.
Shahid Afridi is thick as pigsh1t so his play often looks like cheating, yet it's just the fact he's a simpleton
Report detraveller January 30, 2019 7:47 PM GMT
For example today’s fixture Rangpur and Raj in the BPL, 2 points between them in the table.

Prices theoretically should be 4v6 against 6/4.


Surely this is not the way prices are determined?
Report VardonVoo. January 31, 2019 12:44 PM GMT
I have a friend who often flies out to Malta to audit accounts for bookies. When he talks to the traders they all say they find cricket and politics markets hardest to price up, the former because they are convinced it is often fixed. He wasn't specific about T20, ODI or Test cricket, or who is usually involved, or whether it is usually spot rather than entire match, but he insists the traders are convinced that dodginess is rife.
Report Cardinal Scott February 1, 2019 1:25 AM GMT

Jan 31, 2019 -- 12:44PM, VardonVoo. wrote:


I have a friend who often flies out to Malta to audit accounts for bookies. When he talks to the traders they all say they find cricket and politics markets hardest to price up, the former because they are convinced it is often fixed. He wasn't specific about T20, ODI or Test cricket, or who is usually involved, or whether it is usually spot rather than entire match, but he insists the traders are convinced that dodginess is rife.


"When he talks to the traders they all say they find cricket and politics markets hardest to price up" Don't these monkeys just follow the exchange?

Report Fatslogger February 1, 2019 7:06 PM GMT

Feb 1, 2019 -- 1:25AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Jan 31, 2019 -- 12:44PM, VardonVoo. wrote:I have a friend who often flies out to Malta to audit accounts for bookies. When he talks to the traders they all say they find cricket and politics markets hardest to price up, the former because they are convinced it is often fixed. He wasn't specific about T20, ODI or Test cricket, or who is usually involved, or whether it is usually spot rather than entire match, but he insists the traders are convinced that dodginess is rife."When he talks to the traders they all say they find cricket and politics markets hardest to price up" Don't these monkeys just follow the exchange?


The exchange is, in my view, terrible on politics and I generally take it for loads. Not that following it would necessarily lose them money if they hit the midpoint for enough markets.

Report ItsMeSwaddle February 1, 2019 11:59 PM GMT

Jan 30, 2019 -- 7:47PM, detraveller wrote:


For example today’s fixture Rangpur and Raj in the BPL, 2 points between them in the table.Prices theoretically should be 4v6 against 6/4.Surely this is not the way prices are determined?


No but as a general rule 2 even matched sides fair enough 1 better on paper than the other but not by loads

What got me that about 50 mins prior to the game they price jumped 2.78 to 3.35 all in one go. Taking about 70k wit it (ish)

To me that’s suspicious. Maybe it’s someone that wins enough not to care about a few quid here and there but if I was a layer I’d be laying what I could and being patient, reckon could of got it off at 3.0 if was patient, which was indeed the start Prices .

To me ever since they won the toss and batted in a night game is suspicious.

As it’s been stated if you don’t like it don’t bet, point taken.

Report peckerdunne February 2, 2019 4:16 PM GMT
Always nice if you have an edge on the toss however.
Report peckerdunne February 2, 2019 4:17 PM GMT
Also if you have opening bowler with you.
Report ItsMeSwaddle February 3, 2019 1:04 AM GMT

Feb 2, 2019 -- 4:16PM, peckerdunne wrote:


Always nice if you have an edge on the toss however.


I’d lean more towards something like this.

As someone has said, it’s Asian culture, if your having a bet your naive to think it’s not going on.

Report jucel69 February 3, 2019 2:22 AM GMT

Feb 3, 2019 -- 1:04AM, ItsMeSwaddle wrote:


Feb  2, 2019 --  4:16PM, peckerdunne wrote:Always nice if you have an edge on the toss however.I’d lean more towards something like this.As someone has said, it’s Asian culture, if your having a bet your naive to think it’s not going on.


a lot of the time the fix happens during play and it's blind luck if you are on the right side or not

Report jucel69 February 3, 2019 2:23 AM GMT
I reckon I've been on the wrong side more than the right sideCry
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