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Looking at Thursday's wet + humid forecast, Pakistan bowling first could make England's current 1.51 look ill-advised.
Usually I'd be laying the draw and walking off but I'm nervous about predicted thunderstorms for Monday lunchtime - I'll be leaving it at least another day for the forecasts to firm up a bit. |
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I've been doing a bit of pregame trading. Layed draw at 5.5 which went out to 5.9 which seemed too long so I hammered it. Sitting pretty now before the game.
Pakistan bowling doesn't look that strong to me but they are pakistani bowlers and given heplful conditions, they are world class. Not much confidence in them if the sun is out though. |
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I would have thought Lords would be a belter even this early in the season. I wonder if a speculative draw play could be a winner...erm no not with these two chump sides batting!
I would have thought the smart money is on England but I am not too inclined to back anything before the game. Anderson can do anything the Pakistani's can do. I doubt the match will fall to beneficial humid bowling conditions for any one side. To be honest I am not really looking forward to a match between these two drab teams except it is a Test Match at Lords after the filth of the IPL! |
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For Me Pakistan at 6.2 seems v good value :
- You don't get draws at Lords unless significant rain and with v light evenings they'll make up any time for light showers Thursday - England were soooo hopeless in the winter , away from home I know - Pakistan looked very talented here in 2016 and won the Lords Test in 4 days |
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I know little about the Pakistan batting.
England's batting remains very vulnerable. Huge questions over most of them including Cook, Buttler, Stokes, Stoneman and Root's lack of tons. So basically all of them! Hoping for whoever bats to do ok at some stage Day 1 and then lay the draw at closer to 4s. |
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Pakistan looked very talented here in 2016 and won the Lords Test in 4 days
Its an inexperienced batting lineup this time. Same for bowling, especially without Yasir Shah(I am assuming he isn't available for the series?). Shadab is good but again, inexperienced. |
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You’d be foolish to write Pakistan off with their seam bowling lead by Amir and against a very dubious England batting line up but they look to have a rather dubious batting line up themselves. There may be some value in being on Pak early on but home advantage is usually massive in test cricket and I’m going to be far more comfortable trading the draw, as usual.
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england haven't lost the first test of the summer since 1995 against the west indies. england in may is massive home advantage
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only 3 draws in the last 19 games here, they were all against SL. Strange stat!
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Personally I think it's a relatively weak Pak bowling line up and the batting is always a lottery.
However it's a poor England bowling line up & a bang average batting order. Could be a real shitfest Let's see what Mike Hunt has prepared for us this time! |
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on a side point, they may be getting rid of the toss for the next Ashes. Not in favour of that at all, it will take away a lot of the pre game action
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Met office and BBC out of sync again with the weather
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James Taylor's autobiography looks a riveting read, think I'll pass on that
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Could be hot and humid over the weekend with a chance of a thunderstorm Sunday. far from aiding the draw that will help a result as the ball is more likely to swing.
I just cannot see a Pakistani win unless they bat first on a belter and score 600. England are not a bad side, they just play badly, more so away from home. I wouldn't bet against them this week. |
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@Fats, I am not writing off their bowling. They could bowl England out in a session. I remember they bowled out Aus for 88 many years ago, but that was Headingley. I looked up their batting lineup and it was crap. But their bowling had AMir, Gul and Asif. Spinner wasn't needed. This time their bowling doesn't inspire confidence, though im always scared of betting against them because you never know.
I think the reason most of yu always call the England bowling crap is because you know the team well and its your team, so its natural you criticize. But I don't know how you could call Anderson, Broad and Wood/Woakes bad. Surely against this batting lineup they cannot be called poor like juce said. Watch out for Imam(Inzi's nephew) and Fahim though. |
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AB retires, what a kick in the team for a transitioning SA team
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just test cricket yeh? not one day stuff
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Another guy who fell to quota, but in a different way. Should have retired in 2015.
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woakes record at home is very good. just been absolutely dire on tour
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Yeah real shame,
Test Cricket needs to wake up a little. If only England, Aus and India take Test cricket seriously ( and India only when they are good! ) it will fall apart. The money needs to be shared around better with players.coaches and grounds receiving better help. We can see West Indies have some fine players who have to make their living playing white ball stuff and their Board does not understand this and will not compromise. I am actually shocked a little that Butler accepted the recall. He imho should have seen the season out for RR's and made himself available for England when he had finished. England could quite easy drop him after one Test. England's arrogance and ignorance has lead India going down the same route...Might is Right and money talks. Well now they are the Paymaster General. England and India could easily have sorted out the IPL and Test Matches not concurring but NO. Billy Big Bollocks in each Country wanted to show how big his bollocks were! White ball cricket has a place and should run in conjunction with Test Matches, not in competition. I want to see WI, SL and SA compete in Test Cricket, even Pakistan! Greed is not good in Cricket! oh and I don't blame the players! |
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A touch more rain on the forecast map than I would have expected
from looking at the draw odds, even allowing for good drainage at Lord's. Could possibly be a bit stop-starty on a couple of days. Not sure why the draw recovered to 5.8 from a dip to 5.2 earlier on Weds evening. Currently raining heavily and thundering in South London. |
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Lords virtually drains in seconds. Rain on the first day in England very rarely moves the odds, as the drainage & long evenings allow plenty of time to be caught up
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Haven't had any substantial rain in English test matches for years now.
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certainly been hammering down overnight here in south london...stopped at the mo but very grey and grim
apparently sky sports news is live from lords from 6am,not sure if its all pre recorded guff but worth tuning in to see have a mate working in Kensington from 8am so he might come in useful...no bet for me yet |
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sky live from lords...been plenty of rain but sky reporters saying it will clear on time...
weather been great for last couple of weeks too,soon as the 1st test arrives so does the rain,good ol blighty ![]() |
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and if it isn't raining, it becomes perfect for the bowlers
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This isn't "dry overcast", jucel. This is intermittent but lengthy
periods of light rain and drizzle. Keeping the ball dry could be a problem. |
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England usually trade at bigger odds in-play. infact, i cant remember a time when they didn't. the bookies must love taking money on them pre-match.
1.5 lay to back of England for me for starters. GL chaps. |
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http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8484/scorecard/913617/england-vs-sri-lanka-3rd-investec-test
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God this forum software is rubbish, isn’t it?
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dire!
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It seems forever ago since we had a decent left arm fast medium. Sidebotham was the last 'ok' leftie & not much else in my lifetime!
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