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pxb
18 Jan 18 23:30
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
India managed a rare draw here the last time they played at what is usually a result venue.  Showers predicted most days, possible heavy. Although High Veldt forecasts not particularly reliable in my experience.

Got on the draw in the mid 5s early and looking for draw volatility as the forecast changes, as it will.

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Replies: 1,355
By:
Foinavon
When: 19 Jan 18 20:03
The draw at 4.4 is lay territory for me. I will look to lay shorter in play.
By:
pxb
When: 19 Jan 18 21:11
Foinavon, I am laying the draw on the forecast.
By:
Foinavon
When: 19 Jan 18 22:38
It doesn't look all that bad at the moment, a few showers aren't really a worry. Even when we had the rain last match it didn't knock the draw back very far and made no difference to the outcome.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 20 Jan 18 07:16
Got to trade this one better and differently, lost heavily on 1st 2 after reversing from Saffers onto India.   Can't allow the same dog to bite me thrice.  Possibly I will work around the draw.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 21 Jan 18 11:40
Draw gone very short now. Looks like possible storms but generally they're short and sharp in SA so think anything in the mid 3s is a lay and have tried to hit 3.4 accordingly.  That I had already laid draw at 4.1 isn't really here or there.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 21 Jan 18 11:42
Other thing is that short storms can freshen pitches up, give the bowlers a rest and break the batting side's concentration.  I expect there will be lots of trading opportunities but certainly want to be going in with draw lays hit at low prices, whether I've managed to go nearly flat by backing it in the high 4s and low 5s or not.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 21 Jan 18 11:43
Back up in high 3s instantly. Oddly volatile, although happens in thin markets.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 21 Jan 18 11:59
I have noticed unusual draw activity such as right now, 11k just arrived wanting to back the 3.9!
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 21 Jan 18 12:04
Someone knows something! or someone is setting trap!
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 21 Jan 18 12:15
Not sure if this is on a par with BOM (very impressed by that btw) but it has a 30% rain probability for wednesday then 3 consecutive 60%'s
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 21 Jan 18 12:15
^^^ http://www.weathersa.co.za/city-pages/ ^^^
By:
pxb
When: 21 Jan 18 12:39
As I said in the OP, forecast will change and the draw with it. Weather on the Veldt is like that. Done nicely so far.
By:
Foinavon
When: 21 Jan 18 16:34
With hindsight, I could have got a better price but we can't use that. I don't put enough in-play to make stealing a few ticks worthwhile so I'm happy with what I have. If the draw price shrinks significantly in play on day 1 or day 2 then I'll lay it again.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 22 Jan 18 12:33
"Someone knows something!"
SOMEONE clearly did know something massive draw drop.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 22 Jan 18 13:07
Trigger Happy Layers reeling right now..........or Topping Up their draw lays!
By:
Foinavon
When: 22 Jan 18 17:45
Seen it all before, CS, no need to panic.
By:
Charlie
When: 22 Jan 18 19:56
No info on weather but India's price seems good to me so backed them. Bat first and who knows what goes on later, bowl first on a skiddy pitch if it rains and odds might seem generous. I like a guess.
By:
Foinavon
When: 23 Jan 18 15:44
Draw plunge seems to have reversed. We've seen that before, too.
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 15:45
Dropped a full point (8.0 to 7.0) since I posted and from graph looks like went down to around 6.5 at one stage.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 23 Jan 18 16:45
Sid James is still offering 1.91 Saffers
By:
Injera
When: 23 Jan 18 17:06
India unbeaten at Joburg.
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 17:08
Banned CS. Keep going India down to 6.4/6.6
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 18:06
Do they go sub 6?
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 23 Jan 18 19:02
I've already placed over 100 bets on the market and I am green but its not worth the hassle.  In Bet Angel if you open another market the tick offset tool is cacelled which is another annoyance. Oh and http://www.weathersa.co.za is down
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 23 Jan 18 19:03
Ed Hawkins is gloomy on the weather. https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/south-africa-cricket/south-africa-v-india-third-test-january-24-2018-betting-and-tips-220118-194.html
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 23 Jan 18 19:06
Is Ed a stand up guy? I've seen him gets dogs abuse on twitter. Plain
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 19:10
I find him OK. He doesn't really make a profit IMO because he doesn't knock off commission from his P/L. He says some useful things.
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 19:16
I'm just a guesser on these things (weather and how much it determines a game). Another guess is that odds on draw would shorten if gloomy weather was expected as it's not who knows. Maybe back the draw now because it does? I'd love to know as would everyone else.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 23 Jan 18 20:07
Am very exposed to a rain sodden draw train in this game but still think the multiple lays I’ve placed were reasonable given that the forecasts are pretty unreliable for storms and it’s far from impossible that the effect on play could be small, even if storms do materialise. Anyway, glad that it came back up from the 2s after lays around 2.6, although I bought back at 3 because otherwise too exposed to trade any further drops.
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 20:23
Not sure I know what all that means FS - is backing the draw now at 3.7/3.75 good or bad? I've gone for a back at 3.75 which does leave me exposed on SA but I'll take a chance.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 23 Jan 18 20:33

Jan 23, 2018 -- 2:23PM, Charlie wrote:


Not sure I know what all that means FS - is backing the draw now at 3.7/3.75 good or bad? I've gone for a back at 3.75 which does leave me exposed on SA but I'll take a chance.


Means I got caught with my pants down when the draw plunged because I’d got lays at 4.1, 3.9, 3.4 and 3,2, although then being brave enough to take £500 more on mostly at 2.56 and the rest at 2.8 has at least worked out well. Could even go a little bit green at current prices.

I don’t know whether backing the draw at 3.7 is a good idea or not. I’d say not given that I’m not doing so despite it putting me green if I did. Beauty of tests is that a back or a lay at those prices are both highly likely to be profitable if you pick your moments well enough later on. Given that day 1 has a good forecast and that the market somewhat over reacts to what’s happening at the time and doesn’t pay enough attention to what will happen, I prefer going in draw red though. Every chance some early wickets will fall and the draw will hit 7+.

By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 20:49
Thanks FS.

Caught with your pants down and showing your balls again!

As I'll be awake for this I'll stick where I am which is slight positive on draw, green on India and forgot the other one.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 23 Jan 18 21:23
I don’t tend to think too much about the result early on in a test Charlie but I’d be wary of running a big SA red for long. Yes effectively laying the short favourite can be very profitable but unless the market decides to love the draw, it will love SA even if they’re losing wickets so you won’t see a great position if they bat first unless they collapse in a very small heap and if they bowl, sure India doing well will push SA out quickly but you’ll be very exposed to wickets.
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 21:36
I could green for a reasonable amount but think, maybe wrongly, I'm in a good position. I'll take the chance on the toss.
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jan 18 21:37
And sounds like I'm in for thousands which I'm not.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 23 Jan 18 21:41
I'm 1 750 green results and 4.4k red draw.  Feels fair enough, at this point.
By:
Injera
When: 23 Jan 18 22:02
I'd really like India to bat first and look good for a big one. That alone (apart from a lot of rain)  will panic the market.

So far it's been VERY hard work opposing SA despite that looking like the 'value' play in both tests.
By:
jucel69
When: 23 Jan 18 23:42
I think most of the rain will fall overnight. Might be a storm in the late afternoon but can't see why the draw is 3.4.
The pitch looks lively enough so I'm been laying the draw
It's raining at present in Jo'burg, probably why the draw has come in again
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 24 Jan 18 00:24
Trading in and out before the off I get but why do some of you lot take major positions on a team pre-toss?
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