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pxb
20 Aug 17 01:03
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
The market looks like it did for the first Test, and forecast is similar. I try to avoid thinking that a match will be more or less a rerun of the last match, but in this case I think it will.

Which means it's unlikely to be any opportunities to make significant money, and I'll look to trade the draw as per usual.

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Replies: 1,417
By:
pxb
When: 20 Aug 17 21:11
Can't do anything with these prices. Might be the first Test I don't have a bet on for a very long time.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 20 Aug 17 23:15
Can't see a test going by without betting on it but can't see an angle yet, no.
By:
Foinavon
When: 21 Aug 17 09:42
Looks like another waste of time from a betting perspective unless we get some significant rain early on in the game. The forecast looks OK at the moment, so unless England rest their main players it looks like another stroll in the park.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 21 Aug 17 15:53
England won't rest too many players I don't think. Even if Stokes misses out, Woakes is arguably a better player. Can't see Anderson and Broad both missing as neither plays much aside from tests and they've not had loads of overs so far this summer. They won't want to miss out on the turkey shoot.
By:
wondersobright
When: 21 Aug 17 17:12
eng v short and WI are massive but impossible to see how they can threaten eng let alone win

and only biblical rain can result in the draw and its not f/c
By:
nonserviam89
When: 21 Aug 17 21:41
can't compete won't compete, over in 3.
By:
Injera
When: 22 Aug 17 17:20
Would be helpful if BF put up the 'Test Match End' market. Plain

Be nice to see some liquidity there.
By:
pxb
When: 23 Aug 17 08:42
Somewhat against my better judgement, I've lumped on Englamd.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 23 Aug 17 09:15

Aug 23, 2017 -- 2:42AM, pxb wrote:


Somewhat against my better judgement, I've lumped on Englamd.


Think that's the thing to do, although I haven't been able to get matched at 1.17 and have dropped to 1.16, which I may also miss. It feels unnatural but it just feels like WI (or the weather, or both) would have to put up a totally unexpected level of fight to get England over 1.3 at any stage and there is a very high chance of a train if WI bat.

By:
Foinavon
When: 23 Aug 17 12:28
I won't be backing England at these prices before a ball has been bowled. Just doesn't seem right at all. Perhaps the risk isn't all that big but neither is the reward.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 23 Aug 17 15:55
My initial bets, certainly pre test, are usually intended to set up a trading position rather than necessarily looking for outcome value (obviously it's nice to have both). This just doesn't feel like a game that's likely to see a lot of trading opportunities once WI bat though. As pxb says, you shouldn't assume the forthcoming test will follow the same pattern as the last one (the market does this far too much) but the WI side wasn't only bad for the last test, it's a bad side generally while England is a very good team at home. Obviously it's possible to conceive of circumstances that result in a WI win or a draw but England would probably offer decent outcome value at 1.1, even though that might be a price I'd take the opposite view of and lay looking to trade.

The market isn't taking my 1.15 anyway. The odd thing is that the draw is going out due to reasonable forecast but WI also going out.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 23 Aug 17 17:28
I have got on Windis at 30's only £50 mind you..........a recreational bet. Excited
By:
Fatslogger
When: 24 Aug 17 21:21

Aug 23, 2017 -- 11:28AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


I have got on Windis at 30's only £50 mind you..........a recreational bet.


Can't really decide whether that's long with the draw not really in play and England's batting a bit dodgy or just a joke price on a joke team. Certainly seems a better bet than the draw though.

By:
pxb
When: 25 Aug 17 08:03
Basically no rain forecast. Draw might go a bit shorter, but if WI bat could be 50s in no time.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 25 Aug 17 10:25
Win Toss and Bat, no doubt about it
By:
tomtimtum
When: 25 Aug 17 10:31
Eng win toss and bat
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 25 Aug 17 10:35
Another ruined test match Sad waste of time, go back to bed Plain
By:
cricketnut2
When: 25 Aug 17 10:38
Its a hard match to have a bet in, yes England will win, but at 1.11 I just can't be bothered
By:
cricketnut2
When: 25 Aug 17 10:43
Westley, surely on a final chance, his technique is poor for test cricket
By:
Baker Boy
When: 25 Aug 17 10:55
Great news for the ECB England bat first. If WI cant bat for 95 overs in two innings on an absolute belter, they have no chance against Anderson, Broad & Woakes if we get cloudy Leeds skies.

Can you imagine if this finished by Friday night the lost revenue would be immense.

Massive surprise if England dont get 450+, bigger surprise if WI avoid the follow on. Sometimes you have to keep your money in your pocket.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 25 Aug 17 11:01
Can't see odds changing too much till WI bat, WI will drift out assuming England pile on the runs but the other prices won't move too much
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 11:05
bet england @ 1/8
pick up an extra 12.5% in 3 days time
simples

not my type of bet normally but england are the only value price I can see in this market Shocked
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 11:09
Can you imagine if this finished by Friday night the lost revenue would be immense

a 1 day test

surely even this windies team is not that bad Blush
By:
tomtimtum
When: 25 Aug 17 11:10
Ball not moved at all, 600+ coming here
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 11:16
england have moved of 1 of their 11 ticks already Laugh
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 11:52
hmmm 26/2 again
By:
tomtimtum
When: 25 Aug 17 11:53
Get him out the team!
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 11:54
yes westley is looking a low score mug Sad shame
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 11:55
body language was shocking walking off as well, looks under pressure big time and its not a pressure series
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 12:14
stoneman another failure
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 12:16

Aug 25, 2017 -- 5:10AM, tomtimtum wrote:


Ball not moved at all, 600+ coming here


600 in big trouble tom

By:
tomtimtum
When: 25 Aug 17 12:17
LaughLaugh
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 25 Aug 17 12:17

Aug 25, 2017 -- 4:35AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Another ruined test match  waste of time, go back to bed


I stuck with it despite my earlier irritation at the toss.  Really was Pissed Off at the toss but enjoyng this now. Excited just the prospect that this could become a good game to trade or betterGrinExcited

By:
Charlie
When: 25 Aug 17 12:21
Is it time to state the obvious that England are over-priced now? I've laid tehm.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 25 Aug 17 12:21
5 more and they'll be into the tail.
By:
Charlie
When: 25 Aug 17 12:22
Seven more and they'll be all out!
By:
peckerdunne
When: 25 Aug 17 12:25
that post was coincidental..........C
By:
Charlie
When: 25 Aug 17 12:27
LaughLaugh
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 Aug 17 12:40
root grassed
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