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pxb
19 Feb 17 20:47
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
First Test at this venue and no news on the pitch, so not much to go on except it won't rain.

Nobody seems to rate Aus chances, but win the toss and they might make it close. Draw back to lay for me.
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Report Fatslogger February 24, 2017 3:03 PM GMT

Feb 24, 2017 -- 8:32AM, Foinavon wrote:


Thanks Fatslogger. My biggest lay was at 8 so nowhere near, unfortunately. Needed another partnership.


That it was available for anything you could remotely make money on is a bit amazing, looking back. The market was wise to the state of the pitch rather more than it sometimes is. Another regret this match is not just laying the draw massively early on although I did lay it pretty hard, to be fair. Given that my opening actions were mostly lays of Australia, I suppose I've done fairly well since to be in any kind of shape.

Report Fatslogger February 24, 2017 3:09 PM GMT
Actually, was worse than that. My first five bets were:

Lay Aus at 5 for £500
Back draw 4.5, 4.7, 4.9 for £500
Lay Aus at 4.1 for £500
Report Whisperingdeath February 24, 2017 3:49 PM GMT
Well I never!

I feared a decent Aus batting counter attack at least once in this series or India getting caught on a minefield but did not imagine a first innings capitulation. I did not watch much today and I am glad I didn't as I would have lost a lot of money. This looks like a train wreck for some but I did. George Michael Young Guns .......... caution pays! Only had a minuscule bet. Will let it ride and cash out for a smaller loss if enough people believe in miracles. Game over for me. Well done Aus. We might get better prices on India next match and might go nut deep ante post.

Glad India have got the worst of the pitch. They have the better spinners and didn't have to even the odds by producing a dry pitch that favours the team winning the toss by so much!
Report Foinavon February 24, 2017 4:30 PM GMT
That it was available for anything you could remotely make money on is a bit amazing, looking back

I expected India to do a lot better than they did, perhaps Kohli did too.
My initial pre-match draw lay, alluded to in the first post on this thread was at 4.2 and I later cleared the red at 15.
Was hoping for a second bite of the cherry but not to be.
Report Try My Best February 24, 2017 7:29 PM GMT
Well done to the brains trust. PMSL what a set a losers you lot are. Stick to betting on tiddlywinks.
Report pxb February 24, 2017 8:57 PM GMT
I'm in a good position on Aus with just small reds on India and draw, after some good trades early yesterday.

Aus losing this looks very unlikely. They could get another 100 from here, which should be way out of India's reach, batting last.
Report Try My Best February 24, 2017 9:01 PM GMT
Well done WD for another accurate assessment. You couldn't make it up.
Report pxb February 24, 2017 9:20 PM GMT
Foinavon, draw went to 11 early in India's innings, before the 1st wicket I think. I know because I just missed a draw lay at 10.5.
Report Foinavon February 24, 2017 10:12 PM GMT
Thanks pxb, I'm interested to see how India fare in their second innings although it's likely to be a lost cause when they get the chance.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 4:31 AM GMT
Smith having Moeen Ali type luck
Report pxb February 25, 2017 4:45 AM GMT
Winviz has Aus winning by over 200 runs. Will take something remarkable for India to come even close.
Report pxb February 25, 2017 4:48 AM GMT
We can safely assume no more rank turners in this series.
Report pxb February 25, 2017 5:01 AM GMT
Aus won't mind batting out most of the day if they can.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:01 AM GMT
India really suffering from terrible DRS usage
Report pxb February 25, 2017 5:31 AM GMT
Starc doing it again.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:32 AM GMT
India's odds have hardly moved since the start of the day. Just goes to show if Aus had been rolled their odds would have plummeted.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:33 AM GMT
Amla's just dropped me a load of cashCry
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:35 AM GMT
Soon the draw will swap odds with India. I've got a massive red on the draw that I might need to cover soon.
Report tyco161 February 25, 2017 5:36 AM GMT
Why cover the draw red Jucel? No way this is a draw.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:36 AM GMT
That wicket has eased my draw worriesGrin
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:38 AM GMT

Feb 24, 2017 -- 11:36PM, tyco161 wrote:


Why cover the draw red Jucel? No way this is a draw.


Because I have 20k red on the draw & it was just starting to tweak me. You can imagine all sorts of crazy things at timesLaugh

Report the whizz kids February 25, 2017 5:38 AM GMT
More chance of me playing for India than the draw happening and i'm fooking English. LaughLaugh
Report tyco161 February 25, 2017 5:39 AM GMT
haha yes I can imagine, yep that is the problem chasing short odds.... the mind starts to do messy things and starts conjuring up rain from the Sahara to dump on Pune :)
Report tyco161 February 25, 2017 5:40 AM GMT
but its only day 3 with 60 overs to go... so no way this is a draw :)
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:41 AM GMT

Feb 24, 2017 -- 11:39PM, tyco161 wrote:


haha yes I can imagine, yep that is the problem chasing short odds.... the mind starts to do messy things and starts conjuring up rain from the Sahara to dump on Pune :)


Laugh

Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:42 AM GMT
India should be at least 10s
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:44 AM GMT
NZ under the pump in the ODI, can't see them getting close, on a difficult pitch
Report the whizz kids February 25, 2017 5:44 AM GMT
The market always loves India.CrazyCrazyCrazy
Report tyco161 February 25, 2017 5:45 AM GMT
no NZ's only hope is a huge partnership from these 2. Tempted to start laying India at some stage soon. Have not pulled the trigger yet but then again... backing short odds not really my thing.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:45 AM GMT
5sLaugh
Report pxb February 25, 2017 5:46 AM GMT
I've backed SAF.

Draw should be 500 in this match. But India 20/0 and they will be at 5.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 5:48 AM GMT
If you back Aus, you have to stop looking at the odds if India have a good start. Otherwise you could start making mistakes
Report the whizz kids February 25, 2017 5:48 AM GMT
Who in their right mind would be backing India now at 4/1. I do have a feeling that Aus could be a big price before tea. 1.5ish
Report pxb February 25, 2017 5:51 AM GMT
Who in their right mind would be backing India now at 4/1.

I'll take a wild guess and say "Indians".
Report the whizz kids February 25, 2017 5:52 AM GMT

Feb 24, 2017 -- 11:51PM, pxb wrote:


Who in their right mind would be backing India now at 4/1.I'll take a wild guess and say "Indians".


It's nuts but will continue to get shorter quickly if they get off to a good start.

Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 6:00 AM GMT
38 overs bowled in the session!
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:02 AM GMT
Would it be fair to say if SOK outperforms Nathan Lyon, he will be the number 1 test spinner and possibly take on the mantle as head spinner for say an Ashes series?
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:02 AM GMT
^^ Outperforms in this series
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 6:03 AM GMT

Feb 25, 2017 -- 12:02AM, East_Coast_Eagle wrote:


Would it be fair to say if SOK outperforms Nathan Lyon, he will be the number 1 test spinner and possibly take on the mantle as head spinner for say an Ashes series?


Nah, he's still just a roller

Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:06 AM GMT
Test match ending today paying 4/1
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:07 AM GMT
min 51 overs left
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:12 AM GMT
India need a World record run chase . Lead currently 439 for Aussies.....odds on India at 5.60
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 6:14 AM GMT
This is defo a bank job on Aus and turn off for a few days. If you watch the odds it could send you bonkers
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:15 AM GMT
Any run predictions here?
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:15 AM GMT
Time not an issue. Going to stick my head out and say India can make 300 runs or they will be bowled out today.
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:18 AM GMT
think 300 runs for India 2nd innings run should be the line
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 6:20 AM GMT
Kane outExcited
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:23 AM GMT
Actually I take back my statement, India won't be bowled out today.
Report pxb February 25, 2017 6:23 AM GMT
I agree with jucel. I have a modest Aus back in the 1.3s. If it goes higher I'll hit it big.
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:23 AM GMT
They will fight back, will bat with a bit more patience in 2nd innings.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 6:24 AM GMT
Taylor out too, cloverlandGrin
Report pxb February 25, 2017 6:24 AM GMT
Now Taylor out. All over for NZ you'd say.
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 6:25 AM GMT

Feb 25, 2017 -- 12:24AM, pxb wrote:


Now Taylor out. All over for NZ you'd say.


Yeh it's a really difficult deck, all the NZ players are struggling to time the ball.
They have less chance of winning than India!

Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:33 AM GMT
Some interesting statistics from this game:
Batting v New Ball (the first 20.0 overs): 219/6 (71.0 overs)
Batting v Old Ball (after the 20th over): 431/24 (151.0 overs)

Reflecting back on the game, it was a mistake of India to take the new ball in Australia's first innings. Don't think Steve Smith will take the new ball anytime soon in this match either.
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:41 AM GMT
B365 have India 2nd innings run line at 283.5 runs
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:41 AM GMT
now down to 282.5 runs
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:47 AM GMT
Sunil Gavaskar reckons India will do well to get 300, if they get 350 it will give them confidence for the remaining matches
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 6:49 AM GMT
why the hell are aussies 1.25?
this price has made me empty my betfair account for the first time in ages
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 6:50 AM GMT
and if india get to 40-50 for no wicket, ill be forced to make a deposit and go in again
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 6:52 AM GMT
will hill are 1/4 aussies, no comm.
same price as betfair, thats unreal
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 6:53 AM GMT
yet you can back india runs over 280.5 at 5/6?
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 6:54 AM GMT
Shocked i know its nearly 7am but im foookin confused
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:55 AM GMT
the wicket is hard to bat on, i think the prices are fair
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 6:55 AM GMT
i personally think it will go overs, India can't bat badly 2 times in a row , surely?
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 6:56 AM GMT
1/4? i make them 1/100
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 7:02 AM GMT
lol india 5/2
aussies 2/7
will hill
Report bobby 1 February 25, 2017 7:14 AM GMT
ExcitedExcitedCoolLove
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 7:15 AM GMT
India 1 down
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 7:15 AM GMT
Reckon it was worth a review still
Report tyco161 February 25, 2017 7:16 AM GMT
Timber
Report Whisperingdeath February 25, 2017 7:17 AM GMT
This game may be over but it would be fun to see a hundred run partnership, ideally for the next wicket!
Report Whisperingdeath February 25, 2017 7:18 AM GMT
East Coast

Were you someone else before you became an East Coast Eagle?
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 7:19 AM GMT
This could be over today guys
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 7:19 AM GMT

Feb 25, 2017 -- 1:18AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


East CoastWere you someone else before you became an East Coast Eagle?


Yes , no second guessing for who that was.

Report tyco161 February 25, 2017 7:20 AM GMT
well that might well be it,  both reviews gone as well.
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 7:20 AM GMT
ample time left today 43.3 overs, wished I did get on the 4/1 for the test to be over today
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 7:21 AM GMT
Runs line now down to 227.5 with B365
Report Fatslogger February 25, 2017 7:42 AM GMT
Didn't take nearly enough of the 1.25 - was waiting for chunks at 1.3 and higher so will not quite cover my loss on Aus getting over 150 on second innings runs unless there's a significant recovery. Reckon 120/2 would see Aus 1.3? Suspect the market love might return at that point.
Report pxb February 25, 2017 8:43 AM GMT
Well, all the pundits were wrong. Aus has smashed India.
Report tyco161 February 25, 2017 9:09 AM GMT
This is just embarrassing for India. 8 down now and looks like they will win today.
Report pxb February 25, 2017 9:17 AM GMT
And the Aus spinners have taken all the 2nd innings wickets.
Report dom888 February 25, 2017 9:32 AM GMT
when was the last time india was bowled out within three days at home
and only scored about 200 runs in 2 innings?
Report Whisperingdeath February 25, 2017 9:55 AM GMT
I am struggling with this. I think it would have been conceited to think Aus had no chance in this match but the manner and margin is quite breathtaking. Something not right for me.

My own take was that Aus had a decent top 3 and if Warner kicked off and Renshaw stuck sound Smith could add to their woes and the rest would grow taller.  smith in the second innings and Renshaw in the first is what I am talking bout.

Credit to Aus for having a plan

I am still scratching my head over this. If's.......... I genuinely thought England could give India a match. For me the whole Tour hit a bump when Cook delayed his declaration in the first Test and did not put India under pressure. India have cracked under pressure here.

I do think the dry pitch brought the Aussie spinners to the party. India were hoist on their own petard.....Good!

The England spinners did not get as much help and the gulf in class between the two sets of spinners showed.

I still think Aus look flaky from 4 down. I expect a better pitch in Bangalore with an even contest for 3 days.

This is good for cricket and gambling!

I had reservations about this match and didn't lump on. I could have made a small fortune here by starting with a large one!

Get rid go M Marsh and bring in Agar for me. A bold move which they won't make.

I am not sure what India do. I would replace Saha but don't know who with. Think about getting Sharma out depending on who is available and the type of wicket. Maybe add a batsman.

I have not been able to watch the match or thread properly, glad some of you won big. Hope none of you lost big. I think if you were smart and watching from the off you could......if you had a pair........made a lot of money after the end of day 1. Easy to say in hindsight perhaps as I thought India would make a good score day 2 but the signs were there if you were smart enough. I am not sure I would have been myself but I think a couple of you were, well done oh and to you pxb! Your boys gave one hell of a beating!
Report Captain Wurzel February 25, 2017 10:13 AM GMT
Can Australia go on to win the series  ? 2004 was the last time they won in India - almost as long ago as the last time they won in England.
Report pxb February 25, 2017 10:17 AM GMT
WD, I did say in the OP,

Nobody seems to rate Aus chances, but win the toss and they might make it close.

But I wasn't expecting such a decisive win.

Makes the next game in Bangalore interesting.
Report anxious February 25, 2017 10:26 AM GMT
Very surprised at this result , most thought Australia would struggle here but their spinners have done the business here big time , lets see now what India are made of.
Report East_Coast_Eagle February 25, 2017 10:46 AM GMT
Harbajhan Singh came out before the game and said Australia would be lucky if they lost the series 0-3.

Karma has a way of coming back to bite us , don't they?

“If Australia play well, India will win 3-0. That is if Australia play well. Otherwise, 4-0,” he said ahead of the first Test against India in Pune starting today.

Wonder what he will come out and say next.
Report Whisperingdeath February 25, 2017 10:47 AM GMT
Yes pxb

Win the toss in India and you have a big chance! I think many of us had such a big down on Aus, perhaps rightly so we took our eyes of what was in front of us.... a very dry pitch. Personally I have been up my airse so much recently I have forgotten about the fundamentals of the game.....the pitch and toss are very important. Overlook them at your peril! Oh and the weather. We are in the dryer season I think and that brings Aussie seamers into it more than the English seamers and their two are better than our 3 or 4!

I always thought Aus were capable of winning A Test here batting first and putting up a big total, not like this. I think they worked hard and thought about if after th tour of SL.
Report DStyle February 25, 2017 11:01 AM GMT
not convinced about O'Keefe getting MoM.

a 2nd innings ton in a such a low scoring match on a bunsen is a huge achievement.(cf Gooch's headingley knock against the windies in 1991, where Gooch rightly got it over Daffy)

put it the other way around.

if a bowler took 7-40 on an absolute road in the second innings, while they're were numerous first innings centurions, who would get it?
Report JustWinBaby February 25, 2017 11:13 AM GMT
If he didn't offer so many chances I probably would agree with you DStyle. But point taken, a great innings nonetheless under the conditions.
Report VardonVoo. February 25, 2017 4:40 PM GMT
I fell asleep - what were the highest odds for India whilst Aus were batting? What was the lowest India went to second dig? Did the draw come in at all in the final innings?
Report jucel69 February 25, 2017 7:39 PM GMT
Hoping for a flat deck next with a big draw back to lay!
Report pxb February 25, 2017 7:42 PM GMT
The thing with Agar is, he either has a good game or a bad game and not much in between, while consistency in Test cricket is valued. And I can't see Lyon or Okeefe being replaced on this tour.
Report Whisperingdeath February 26, 2017 10:08 AM GMT
My question really was what is the point of Mitchell Marsh in the Test Team? 

Both remaining spinners take the ball away from India's right handlers. We know Agar can bat. Eddie Jones would not keep an unchaged side. Cricket does not like to change a winning team. it would be exciting to see Aus with 3 spinners because I don't think we will get a Bunsen next up. Aus have one very good and one good seamer. That is more than enough but I guess they fear India going after the spinners on a flat wicket.
Report Foinavon February 26, 2017 10:52 AM GMT
Yes, you could be right about the pitch. After such a thrashing there are bound to be changes made making it more difficult for us to know what to do
from a betting point of view.
Report Garden Of Gulab February 26, 2017 11:00 AM GMT
Next Test is at Bangalore, FWIW here's the venue Test history

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/match_results.html?class=1;id=683;type=ground

Four draws in the last eight Tests going back to 2001, although only one Test since 2012, a rain-ruined draw vs SA.
Report JustWinBaby February 26, 2017 11:05 AM GMT
Bangalore going to be a slow and low road. Can Australia banish the demons of their Sri Lankan tour by playing the spinners well. Except for Steve Smith there are still major questions marks with their top 6.

Most pressure on Warner IMO, he needs a big score in these conditions otherwise it will confirm my thinking of him as a flat track bully.
Report JustWinBaby February 26, 2017 11:09 AM GMT
1st innings Australia got bailed out by Mitch Starc's cameo late on day 1 which basically setup the match for them.
Report JustWinBaby February 26, 2017 11:12 AM GMT
Having said all that I don't want to downplay Australia's performance. Beating India by over 300 runs in India clearly means they played exceptionally well.
Report Whisperingdeath February 26, 2017 11:37 AM GMT
Saved yourself with that last post!
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