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prepared83
29 Mar 16 16:42
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Date Joined: 06 May 10
| Topic/replies: 5,375 | Blogger: prepared83's blog
Early thoughts? All i want is root and guptill out cheaply for my tamim bet. Got a feeling England will win this if they bat second

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Replies: 716
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 29 Mar 16 17:08
I would make NZ big favourites but England have already had 2 matches at Delhi so will be used to the conditions. That will even it up. I don't think you should worry about Root and Guptill as neither is likely to score more than 40 in Delhi. The other semi final is in Mumbai where there's been lots of 200+ scores. Gayle made his 100 there. Eng chased down 230 against SA and SA made another 200+ score there against Afghan. Kohli will in all probability hit a 70+ score in Mumbai and that will push him close to top tournament batsman. If India win the semi final he will have a chance to overtake 295 in the final.
By:
The Dragon
When: 29 Mar 16 20:04
tough call, depends on how england bat, no bet for me but hope to home to watch it
By:
Foinavon
When: 29 Mar 16 20:16
No bet for me. I have a sneaking feeling that England could win this.
New Zealand games have not been particularly high scoring ones and they have relied on their bowling and fielding limiting the opposition. England's cavalier style of batting should cause New Zealand problems especially if chasing a modest total.
By:
pxb
When: 29 Mar 16 22:35
If NZ don't have any fitness issues, I'd favour them to win, although not by much. A low scoring pitch will benefit NZ.
By:
twizzle22
When: 30 Mar 16 07:57
A  game well worth leaving alone as a serious punting prospect..that said the 9/4 with Skybet for either Root OR Guptill to top score could be worth an interest.
By:
Snosurf
When: 30 Mar 16 12:53
Another 20/20 and one of the biggest coinflips I have seen in a while... Lots of unknowns and the usual unpredictability of this form of cricket. I'm backing England prematch at 2.10 (waiting to get matched) currently.

Scenario one, if NZ win the toss and bat first then I'll be slightly worried, I'll be hoping they can lose a few cheap wickets. I could potentially exit (break even) after loss of 1st wicket, which I would highly consider doing (don't like NZ batting 1st, looking at tourney results so far)

If England win the toss and bat first their price should come in to closer to 2.00s, but I will wait for them to bat before I act and hope they can get on track to posting a total of 160+, which should see them shorten into the 1.80-2.00 depending on other factors, of course.

NZ batting 2nd is a bit of an unknown and I think the pressure could see them stumble at some point, I would probably be patients and hopefully green out when England shorten to 1.65-1.70 if the opportunity arises.

The biggest danger I see here is scenario one, if NZ bat first and England can't slow down the run rate and/or take wickets... This could see NZ firm into the 1.50-1.60 range which would then leave me in a dangerous predicament (loss of 0.50-0.60 of investment) and the hard call whether to get out, or wait and see what England can do on the chase.

Thoughts?
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 12:57
BACK ENGLAND AT 5.00 ON OUTRIGHT. IT IS BIG.
By:
Snosurf
When: 30 Mar 16 13:01
I don't see England beating India in the final if they progress Yomamma... You looking to trade this between matches or in-play tonight, or you actually think they can win the tournament?
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 13:04
I'm trying to get matched on NZ so hoping Eng price goes down a bit. There's not much in the match odds but NZ 4.3 and Eng 5.00 on outright.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 13:05
NZ 4.5 with stan james and a few other bookies.
By:
pxb
When: 30 Mar 16 13:05
I haven't seen NZ spinners so far in the comp, but their figures are better than the Indians. Nathan McCullum has the best economy rate FFS. If they are as good as their figures indicate then I wouldn't be optimistic about Eng chances.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 16 13:15
Will follow my usual strategy for England, back them when they're batting and lay them when they're fielding!
By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 16 13:15
Don't think the NZ spinners will get much assistance from this pitch, played pretty well in womens game
By:
cricketnut2
When: 30 Mar 16 13:17
As much as I would like to see England win, NZ are strong in most areea, the biggest one being the Captaincy, as Kane Williamson, is a superb captain, way better then Eoin Morgan. England do have some big hitters, right through the batting order, but NZ have a far better bowling attack, I think NZ at 1.66 England 2.5 is nearer the correct mark the 2 sides
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 30 Mar 16 13:35
Surprised the odds are so close. Think NZ are a good bit better than England myself.
By:
trader pj
When: 30 Mar 16 13:35
good bAtting wicket imo which favours England surely
By:
trader pj
When: 30 Mar 16 13:36
England should be favs for this. NZ are a little over-rated just now
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 13:38
Eng huge at 5.1. That does not correlate with match odds.
By:
Charlie
When: 30 Mar 16 13:41
Think people may be overrating England.

Ok they did very well to get a huge total to beat SA but they won with two balls to spare and bowlers were crap and could easily have lost; against Afghanistan they had to rely on Ali, Jordan and Willey thrashing for the last few overs and could easily have lost; against a poor SL team they could easily have lost as well.

NZ out spun India, defended a low total reasonably easily against Aussies, and were just the better team against Pakistan and Bangas.

England do have some advantage of having played on pitch before. Toss may be important.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 30 Mar 16 13:43
Thats how I see it Charlie. Agree the toss could be crucial and batting first a big advantage.
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 30 Mar 16 13:46

Mar 30, 2016 -- 1:38PM, YOMOMMA wrote:


Eng huge at 5.1. That does not correlate with match odds.


England will be a big price against India

By:
trader pj
When: 30 Mar 16 13:46

Mar 30, 2016 -- 1:38PM, YOMOMMA wrote:


Eng huge at 5.1. That does not correlate with match odds.


well spotted imo

By:
GRANTCKING
When: 30 Mar 16 13:47
NZs batting this tournament has been fairly woeful, fancy england to win this, surprised they arent favs
By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 16 13:47
if England play India in final, they'll be 3.0+? Which would make their chance of winning tournament 2.08 x 3 = 6.24 (at least)
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 13:47

Mar 30, 2016 -- 1:46PM, Mike-lfc wrote:


Mar 30, 2016 -- 12:38PM, YOMOMMA wrote:Eng huge at 5.1. That does not correlate with match odds.England will be a big price against India


No they won't. And if they play WI they will be favourites.

By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 16 13:48
WI are 3.0 vs India, no way will England be shorter than WI
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 30 Mar 16 13:49
Prices in the outright look bang on to me.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 13:50
The prices are all wrong. England are too big.

NZ are 4.5 and 4.33 with some bookies but 4.2 on betfair.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 16 13:51
Can you remember what price WI were when they beat Eng in the group stages? Seem to remember WI 1.8 or so but could be wrong
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 30 Mar 16 13:51
NZ are 4 with the majority of bookies though.
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 30 Mar 16 13:53

Mar 30, 2016 -- 1:51PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Can you remember what price WI were when they beat Eng in the group stages? Seem to remember WI 1.8 or so but could be wrong


i had £100 on West Indies at about 2.1

By:
Mike-lfc
When: 30 Mar 16 13:53
SP
By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 16 13:53
That was on exchange?
By:
mafeking
When: 30 Mar 16 13:55
england were clear favourites against the windies around 1.73
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 30 Mar 16 13:59
Like the look of Guptil Performance at 36 on the spreads... gets 1 point for each run, but also 10 for a catch. He's had 6 catches in 3 games so far so could be a nice little bonus to top up his run total.
By:
detraveller
When: 30 Mar 16 14:00
About time Williamson lost the toss...
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 14:01

Mar 30, 2016 -- 2:00PM, detraveller wrote:


About time Williamson lost the toss...


Williamson is the grestest **** in the world. NZ will win the toss.

By:
YOMOMMA
When: 30 Mar 16 14:02
why can't you type t o s s e r?
By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 16 14:03
Looks like Eng won toss and bowl
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