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pxb
28 Oct 15 06:40
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
No need to discuss the weather.

A result ground (1 draw in 7 matches), although with some big scores. NZ scored 690 batting second in the last Test played here.

I feel Pakistan will be happy with a draw and bat like it first innings.

England's tail masked their middle order problems and while 3.7 looks a decent price, I can't bring myself to back England.  I have a feeling we will see a batting collapse at some point, and if we do it will probably be England. I'm not going to oppose Pakistan.

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Replies: 806
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 28 Oct 15 11:51
Watch and wait for me pxb. Sides are evenly matched imho. Pakistan having the two best bowlers and a more solid if still occasionally vunerable batting line up. Haven't looked at the history on this ground yet.
By:
pxb
When: 28 Oct 15 12:10
Glad you are here WD. You can answer a RWC final question for me. What happens if the match is tied in regular time?
By:
mafeking
When: 28 Oct 15 17:54
be nice to get to see how pakistan react if they lose the toss and england put up any reasonable first innings score. can't say i fancy them under pressure

been a big advantage to win both tosses. england have done pretty well so far all things considered. oz were absolutely marmalised in both tests this time last year
By:
Injera
When: 28 Oct 15 18:49
An Ashes win and 20 minutes from going 1-0 up in AB after conceding 520 odd...

This despite severe doubts over Bell, Jonny, Stokes' batting and Butler. Cook is being given little or no control with his spinners.

Moeen has gone from 8 to 2, Lyth was dropped and Finn injured. Somehow we have a chance to level the series..
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 28 Oct 15 20:43
Hi pxb,

I think it is 10 minutes each way and if the scores are still level it is another 10 mins each way but golden point i.e first to score wins. That is just a guess or recollection. I will find out later for sure.

Injera,

you make some good points there. England definately not out of it but Paks slightly better for me. Toss probably gives the initiative but as always lay anyone who goes odds on too early in the match ( within reason ).

oh and pxb,

The final ought to be a cracker. Two very good sides and the best two in the world. Sorry to show my prejudice but I will probably have to support the All Blacks kinda but rugby hopefully will be the winner. I think in football parlance again NZ wins it but you never know. Plenty to drink and no gambling on it as it would spoil the enjoyment. I think NZ have world class players all over the pitch whereas Aus have a fantastic backrow but will be up against Captain Fantastic and the other two ain't bad either. I think the Aussie front row may have problems their backs are more than decent but NZ backs are always polished. I wish you well with it.
By:
pxb
When: 28 Oct 15 21:33
Watch and wait for me pxb.

I might do that. I don't have a feel for how this will go. Even a draw back to lay looks risky to me. Seamers do reasonably well first innings here.
By:
Crawford Baptie
When: 28 Oct 15 22:15
England's batting line-up is far too brittle - well the top order is anyway!Too much reliance on Root and Cook in the top six. Even the guys rumoured to come in will struggle as not that familiar with  the conditions
Not dissing them -just not putting money on them. Think they have battled well this series thus far. It would be interesting if England won the toss and batted first.
Pakistan to win imo.
By:
pxb
When: 28 Oct 15 22:56
FFS, thought this was a clear "draw back to lay"

I'd want a bigger price than 3.25.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 30 Oct 15 17:09
Kiwis score 690 here and beat Pak 12 months ago including a Double Ton from Baz who isn't renowned against Spin.  The way England didn't collapse quickly in that 2nd innings a week ago should give them a real boost.   Cooks win the toss Eng bat 1st and they can win here.
By:
The Dragon
When: 30 Oct 15 17:26
dont bet until you know the outcome of the toss. lay whoever loses the toss (NAP)
By:
pxb
When: 30 Oct 15 19:18
Draw out to an attractive price. Can't see any news that would account for it. If anything the omissions - Wood, Khan, Buttler - should bring the draw in a bit.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Oct 15 19:54
Have some as yet unmatched cash on the draw at 3.9 and 4, which do seem high, certainly given the pattern of the series so far. I'm expecting to end up with red on the draw but quite happy to manoeuvre to that position from some green there initially (as long as I don't end up as I did in the SL WI game where I was red on everything avoiding an absolute kicking trying to nick £25 laying the draw at the back end of the SL second innings).
By:
mafeking
When: 30 Oct 15 19:59
does seem odd on the face of it especially with the injury news today. can't imagine pakistan will risk a raging bunsen guaranteeing a result. a slow turner more like erring on the flat side if anything
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Oct 15 20:14
Not sure exactly how much control Pakistan has over the track but certainly it's not going to be a Bunsen, no, let alone a quick seamer. If you had complete discretion on nature of pitch as Pak coach, one just like the last one would suit you, wouldn't it?
By:
pxb
When: 30 Oct 15 20:45
Some times the market just gets it wrong. History says we will get a result, but also says we should get decent 1st innings scores. Be surprised if we don't see the draw below 3.
By:
mafeking
When: 30 Oct 15 21:14
think they'd prefer it as flat as abu dhabi. if they lose the toss on a wicket with anything for the bowlers and either cook or root makes a big 100 they could be in a trouble

remember too england have always been batting under scoreboard pressure in the first 2 tests. much easier for the middle order and tail to smash a few if they're coming in at say 250/4 first up
By:
pxb
When: 30 Oct 15 23:14
The draw move may be due a cyclone in the Indian Ocean, but its nowhere near Sharjah.
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Oct 15 02:34
In the last 3 games, there has been a draw & two wins. The win for Pak against SL would have been a draw but for terrible captaincy from Mathews on the final day. It traded well under 1.1 in that game. Last year was marred by the death of Phil Hughes and again the draw traded below 1.5.
However, it was an excellent batting deck & Pak gave it away on day 3 when play resumed in an almost morgue like atmosphere. Mccullum then came out and smashed the attack to all parts & Pak then collapsed in a heap 2nd dig.
Draw back to lay for me at 3.8
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Oct 15 02:36
Sharjah tends to spin but gets really slow towards the end of the game.
By:
pxb
When: 31 Oct 15 02:48
Cyclone track map

http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/io0415.gif?1446255896
By:
pxb
When: 31 Oct 15 08:50
Draw has jumped out again to nearly 4. Again no news I can see, so took some more.
By:
pxb
When: 31 Oct 15 10:32
Draw down to 3.4, now back out to 3.9. All very peculiar without changing weather forecasts.
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Oct 15 11:21
pxb, I find it happens quite often. Somebody/consortium with money pushing the prices up and down and making the margin. It was happening on the 4th day os the sl/wi game too
By:
pxb
When: 31 Oct 15 11:40
jucel, you see moves of this magnitude when sub-continent bookies layoff on here, but this doesn't look like that is happening as England is moving more than Pak.
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Oct 15 11:42

Oct 31, 2015 -- 5:40AM, pxb wrote:


jucel, you see moves of this magnitude when sub-continent bookies layoff on here, but this doesn't look like that is happening as England is moving more than Pak.


Do you reckon the fix is in?

By:
pxb
When: 31 Oct 15 12:04
I assume you mean will Pak throw the match?

I think it unlikely. Although Sharjah was banned from hosting international matches for several years after strong evidence of match fixing.

Caution says I will green up before start of play tomorrow. But I say that rather more often than I do it.
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Oct 15 12:22
What about Betfair's position re: irregular movement of odds.
This movement is normal when weather is concerned but this seems to be something else!
Personally I think the draw should be around 3s. Buttler dropped = more stability/extra batsman therefore more runs for England, Wood injured means Eng have less chance of taking 20 wickets, Khan injured means Pak have less chance of taking 20 wickets.
The draw should have shortened not lengthened on those changes imo.
Add to that there is no mention of the pitch being under prepared. I'm starting to think I should make a call to my Grimsby fishwife as something smells a bit.....
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Oct 15 12:23
* irregular betting patterns would be more appropriate
By:
pxb
When: 31 Oct 15 12:26
All I came up with is, 'the soil has been changed', which implies a newer, more lively pitch.

Otherwise, I agree with you.
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Oct 15 12:40
Sounds ambiguous to me. Do you think they are talking about a relaid square & a new soil content?
By:
pxb
When: 31 Oct 15 12:46
You know as much as I do. Relaid square probably.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 31 Oct 15 13:02
Taylor for Butler official
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 31 Oct 15 13:04
no news on Plunkett or Patel
By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Oct 15 16:26
Decision on Patel / Plunkett allegedly yet to be made but can't see England wanting a third spin bowler who's at least as much of a batsman as spinner and go with only three quicks.

Quite happy to have £300 on the draw at average of 3.9. Whether I hold onto it waiting to lay at under 3s if side batting first does so well or not remains to be seem.
By:
Injera
When: 31 Oct 15 16:47
Not sure why we need 4 quicks and 2 1/2 spinners (Root being the half).

Could easily play Hales and Taylor and leave out Stokes.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Oct 15 16:57
We could do, Inj but I don't really see that strong a case for Hales replacing Stokes just as a batsman, let alone the loss of the fourth pace bowling option.
By:
Injera
When: 31 Oct 15 17:05
I just feel Jonny, Stokes and Butler have been walking wickets. We need a lot more runs to be competitive.

Hard for Taylor and Hales to be thrown in for one test but needs must.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Oct 15 18:11
Buttler has been more of a limping than walking wicket, so lame has he looked. Stokes and Bairstow have at least both managed to get themselves in a time or two before getting themselves out. I'd bring Taylor in for either of them, possibly, if the situation arose but he's already coming in for Buttler. I don't see that Hales is a superior option though and if I did feel strongly about bringing him in I'd do it for Bairstow before Stokes. Having the sixth bowling option matters when your spinners have been such a liability first innings.
By:
pxb
When: 01 Nov 15 01:47
If England win the toss, I think I'll lay them. Could be something in the wicket early.
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