The Ashes, 1st Test at Cardiff

If this young England team get a confidence boost by winning this test I see a 3-1 England series win,the Aussies are looking an old team,Clarke will not play 5 tests.

Out smith

Bye Bye Smithy - perhaps we will get the real SecondComing seethe now

Jul 11, 2015 -- 1:45PM, Captain Wurzel wrote:

Bye Bye Smithy - perhaps we will get the real SecondComing seethe now

not in this game, noone ever expects a team to chase down 400+ to win a game, we lost this with our first innings batting display

however, I will be seething if Brazen Beau cannot win the July Cup at Newmarket tonight, his ride last start was an abomination and I still feel sick in my stomach at the concept that he was beaten after getting such a horrific ride, best horse in the race by a country ****g mile, what the **** was that ****g idiot doing, get some ****g cover you ****g piece of ****

**** me

Not a Frankie fan then...

Jul 11, 2015 -- 1:49PM, SecondComing wrote:

however, I will be seething if Brazen Beau cannot win the July Cup at Newmarket tonight, his ride last start was an abomination and I still feel sick in my stomach at the concept that he was beaten after getting such a horrific ride, best horse in the race by a country ****g mile, what the **** was that ****g idiot doing, get some ****g cover you ****g piece of ******** me

hahahahah full on hatred

Mark Wood, sounds like a pornstar

England should be able to wrap this game up just after tea. Good to have an extra day's rest

secondcoming my new fav forumite

Grant I thought we had a good thing going

Aus playing for the draw now.

25 miles north of cardiff and some dark clouds rolling in, no rain on the radar till after 7pm though

are they playing :)

Australia's batting especially their middle order is very brittle

May have been generous thinking Australia could make it to tea

Well Watson is in so they will be 5 down shortly

didn't realise 4 down don't worry bout any weather now

Cooky looks pretty relaxed

is Watson the greame hick of Australian cricket so much talent but he fails to deliver most of the time

aussies doing exactly what the received wisdom was would be happening to england
'funny ole game,Saint'

Get Jimmay back on now with Broad to finish it off quickly

some of the shots to get out have been shocking

slip5 - you were bigging up this Aussie chase

you want to wear down the bowlers ffs

None of these batsmen are capable of grinding out a patient innings.

at least we dropped Hick and he went on to have a great county career.
Watson is in danger of having no career to look back on.

Were the Aussies on the p1ss at lunchtime ? Bottle of vino collapso please

2 walking wickets at the crease for Australia

brad haddin is the ian healy of Australian cricket he never gives up

shutup slippy. Just enjoy the England victory ffs

lets all laugh at the silly convicts

mugruza looking good

Williams looks slow today maybe upset possible

you guys sleeping

I backed Muguruza at 6's

I expected Williams to be nervous and come out slow. The Grand Slam means a lot to her. She will probably win but I think it will be decided in the third and could go either way. Mugu is not scared of her and infact is reting to face her down right now playing some aggresive tennis. I might take an even green but really think the Spanish girl has a good chance.

I expect the gruntometer to red line as Serena is up against it!

draw goes from 1000's down to 40's in no time

Worst thing that can happen for Australia now is for Watson to get a decent score and buy himself more time in the team.

Haddin with another failure

not really "the right brand of cricket" from australia today, is it?

they'll be able to get a flight back to sydney 2nite by the looks of it

Not much strategy required in this series. Starting position for every game = lay Australia

I too am hoping Watson makes a score here!

Nice hold from Mugu from 15-40!

Nowhere for this Aus team to go here. They are just going to have to close the book on this nightmare match and start again. Lords should benefit their bowlers but they have given England confidence and that will be hard to knock

I don't think Marsh will make any difference. The middle order will continue to creak. If the nerves have got to MJ then Aus are in big trouble. Lords may offer more to bowlers but once it settles it is also stroke maker friendly and the England middle order is full of confidence and ability. Our bowlers look completely different in this match.

Why wasn't Faulkner selected? I rate him as an all rounder. He could bat 6 if he improved and is more than useful as a 4th seamer.

Mitchell Marsh is a future number 3 bat for Australia. He is still very raw but the selectors need to at least given a chance. His bowling is a bit wayward at the moment but he needs to be given a chance, no point putting him in cotton wool and selecting muppets like Watson. This team needs some regeneration.

Serena starting to get on top

Set Serena

1 away from the SERENA SLAM

Is Watson the father of Stuart Broad? He uses as many reviews!

Tactical that review. Who else are they gonna use it on?

Squeaky bum time on Centre

Somebody has layed Mugu at 1000-1 for £14.

Mugu has just broken back twice and is level in the second set! She is back down to 17.5!

I know Otis,

but the irony of it amuses me and it was umpires call too!

squeaky bum time for eng
200 8th wkt p/ship building

mitchell johnson showing his gutless teams how its done, he came here to fight and fight he shall

yeah Johnson showing what you can do if you make bowlers work hard

he not played a false shot this Johnson

bit of a strange match tbf..lot of batsmen got themselves out from both teams
but now it will really be a good series
even tho' they've greatly underperformed here they're surely too good a team not to be able to draw one of these tests so i don't see a whitewash
4-0 to england it is then

not really Johhny,

It never ceases to amaze me how one paced so many sportsmen can be. Not just club trudgers like me but these highly paid sports professionals.

On a slow pitch it is hard to score fluently but easy to stay in unless you get a jaffa. Nudge and nurdle, twaite anything over pitched or short or wide. Keep the elbow high and the left hand in front of the right. The bottom line is don't give your wicket away. Not hard really is it?...but no! When |England picked the right cherry yesterday they were unplayable but today Aussie have hoisted the white flag but really they should be wearing dunces hats!

rain forecast tomorrow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2653822

Pakistan showed how 377 can be chased down

72 that last wkt put on

1-0 England

the rain will ease up by 1pm at the latest. the draw is still a lay imo.

what price is the draw now, 25.0?

if you had said the 1st test would be won by 169 runs most pundits would've said..feasible but it's the 1st test,the aussies would take a bit of time to really get warmed up
had u said ..hold up i meant england most would have said..WTF u smoking,my man..give me some..no accounting for what can transpire in sport

Outbowled, out batted and outfielded.

'Mr Mainwaring, Mr Mainwaring! Don't panic, don't panic!!'

The good thing for Australia is that Starc has one good ankle and 3 of their top 7 won't be 40 for a couple of years

Tremendous team performance from England. Everybody contributed. Cook Captained well. I do think England can go on from here and dominate the series. Interesting to go back and look at some of our commenst prior to this match.

I was surprised at how well England bowled. Not surprised by England's top order which needs surgery who and when I cannot answer. I would like to see Rashid accomodated for Ballance in all likelihood although I was impressed with his pluck.

Aussie have big problems. I am sure their attack will recover and maintain more menace at Lords but will they score enough runs? I am not so sure now. Clarke may be on the wain and maybe England know how to bowl at opposition.

I am still of the opinion to lay Aus at odds on or close to evens if that train hasn't left.

the aussies did q well till they took the field!

eng now 11/10 to win series from 5/1
aussies were 1/3

harris was a huge loss on a wicket like this.

starc did well, but they really are in trouble if he's unavailable for the next test. Hazlewood may have a little more joy at Lord's.

agree with WD about their batting though. you have to be prepared to grind on these wickets if the opposition have scored runs, and that line-up is good enough to adapt, but completely failed to.

so some bad luck with harris, but ultimately undone by iffy batting. that said, the same criticism could have been leveled at england in their second innings.

eng were somewhat flattered by the comrehensiveness of the result
their top order got away with underperforming because of root effectively
don't rate ballance,not entirely convinced by lyth.bell has to step up to the plate and wasn't impressed by buttler's batting
root and stokes look real players now and for the future
we'll know a lot more after the Lord's test

Still weaknesses in the England batting & you always feel they will have a collapse or two before the series is out but the same cam be said of the aussies - some of them look a little long in the tooth now.

If Englands bowlers keep performing as they have done if this match they will be competitive throughout - Australia will struggle if Starc is out of the next test so England have to maintain a positive approach. If we can win the next test then the aussies might capitulate and there will be no way back for them.

Winning the toss at Lords will be critical so I would hold on betting until then

England's batting order can cope with early wickets. Australia's can't.

It really is simple as that.

As for the Oz bowling, it's untried in England. They bowled both sides and were punished.

They were arrogant towards Mooen and gave him wickets.

This 'new brand' that all sides are looking to adopt has its flaws. Teams forget it's a 5 day match. This was a flat pitch yet the game is over at 5pm on the 4th day!!!

I can't see a draw. 3-2 either way unless the weather intervenes.

I thought we were very poor all game and a little spineless. If we don't start playing a bit more aggressively and showing more guts and technique out in the middle I think we will get hammered this series. Clarke and Haddin have had  terrible games and Watson should now make way for Marsh. All in all a pathetic start by the aussies.

With hindsight, Starc was probably carrying some kind of injury from the start. Now looks to be out for the next match. All-in-all, England had the better luck, in particular that Root drop. And Root was the difference, plus Anderson/Broad were not past their best as I expected.

I anticipate the next match to be fairly even and could go either way. Talk of an England whitewash a little premature.

Starc will be fine. Clarke kept emphasising the point that he bowled quickly in the second dig and batted.

I reckon he thinks Starc is a bit of a drama queen...

Both sides took 20 wickets but England's 5-8 are too powerful at present.

Jul 11, 2015 -- 8:52PM, pxb wrote:

With hindsight, Starc was probably carrying some kind of injury from the start. Now looks to be out for the next match. All-in-all, England had the better luck, in particular that Root drop. And Root was the difference, plus Anderson/Broad were not past their best as I expected.I anticipate the next match to be fairly even and could go either way. Talk of an England whitewash a little premature.

Your comments are in some ways correct, Starc carrying an injury, with Harris already ruled out is correct, England had the better luck in particular the Root drop, emm the Root drop was not the better luck, Hadden should of caught it, he didn't, thats poor cricket from Australia, it was a dolly, at Test Match Level. Root is the best batsmen England have had in a long long while and when he dropped that catch, I stated on the 1st test thread, he's just dropped the Ashes. If Starc, wasn't fit, he shouldn't of played, which says the reserves are probably not good enough, now thats not bad luck, bad management, whatever. Now there is absolutly no chance of a whitewash, just for the fact, that if England. get on top, whether it be at Football Cricket or any sport, they think, they are the greatest and usually are brought back down to earth very quickly. The trouble is Australia's squad is too old. Hadden is too old 37, which tells you, there is nobody any younger, thats any better

Johnson is still a good bowler/batter, but overall, there is a lack of real quality in this Australian side, the pitches are going to be tailor made for England and England have a new coach and he's the only Australian thats going to win this summer, UNLESS AUSTRALIA IMPROVE BY 200%

Their tale is now too long by modern standards. They need to replace Watson andHaddin with Marsh Ab

Of course in a deterministic universe, luck doesn't exist.

We use 'luck' as a shorthand for saying, on another day in similar circumstances, Haddin would have taken a similar catch.

(end pendantry)

Top athletes play with injuries all the time, and it's a question of how much their performance is affected. I'll be more precise and say, Starc's long term injury problem (bone spurs apparently) affected his performance more than I anticipated.

regards

Jul 11, 2015 -- 10:31PM, cricketnut2 wrote:

Johnson is still a good bowler/batter, but overall, there is a lack of real quality in this Australian side, the pitches are going to be tailor made for England and England have a new coach and he's the only Australian thats going to win this summer, UNLESS AUSTRALIA IMPROVE BY 200%

I agree with all you wrote other than Australia needing to improve by 200%, the teams are very close in ability

The key issues for Australia:
1. Middle order - Steve Smith's stellar 18 months has papered over the fact that players like Watson, Haddin and to a lesser extent Clarke have not had been performing. That is been exposed now with Smith moving up to 3 which is a bit of double edged sword. I think it is the right move but it now means they don't have anyone from 4-7 who can consistently play long innings. Voges as played a lot of cricket in England but obviously a novice in test cricket.
2. Bowling lacks control - on the English pitches with a slow and dry, this current Australian attack lacks balance. They need someone who can provide more control, bowling wicket to wicket which is why I don't think Australia can actually afford to play both Mitch Johnson and Starc in the same team in this series. Allowing England to score at over 4 RPO's in both innings is unnacceptable. Siddle will provide a lot more control IMO.
3. Watson - what exactly is he in the team for? Pre-series we were told he was ahead of Mitch Marsh for the all rounder spot because of his superior bowling but then he ends up bowling only 13 overs for the entire match??? If that is the case Marsh is more than capable of filling that role and he is a far superior batsman to Watson. I am quite high on Marsh as a batsman and eventually he is going to be batting in the top 4 for the team. Why not give him a chance to play now and get some experience in these conditions.

Haddin is clearly over the hill but very rare for a team to replace a WK mid-series. At a minimum Watson must go for Marsh. IF Starc is not fit for Lords, Siddle should come in. I don't think Australia have become a bad team overnight, think they may have taken England lightly but there were signs against NZ that England were building to this sort of performance so it shouldn't have come at a surprise to them.

Aussies will come back hard but at least they know they have a fight on their hands. England play the conditions better and now they are brimming with confidence.

Aus favourite for the 2nd Test by a margin.

It looks like Watto is gone and I agree with all the comments about he shouldn't have played the 1st Test.

I doubt Haddin will be dropped, and IMO he doesn't deserve to be, even though his batting has fallen off.

I'd bring in Cummins (to replace Starc), rather than Siddle. Taking early wickets more important than middle order containment IMO.

In an ideal world, Clarke would be dropped, but that isn't going to happen. Although I wouldn't rule out a convenient injury if Eng win the 2nd Test.

I found this match a difficult one to bet on and ended up losing money. Was expecting a lot more volatility in the betting but apart from the first session of the match England were on top. The game really lacked the ups and downs of the matches against NZ and as a result I found myself trading out of what would have been a winning position.Rather a boring match from a betting perspective.

Starc will play

good job England got it done yesterday as it is still raining in Cardiff and has done virtually all morning

Turns out we might not have had much play today if any - comfortable in losing a draw bet backed at 36 when the real odds were probably 10/1.

actually make that 5/1.  Nice to see the BBC/Met Office spot on as well (for a change)

Which shows what a ridiculous decision it was by Cook not to declare late on day 3. He got away with it, but would have been red faced had it gone to 5th day. 350 run lead was always going to be more than enough

Charlitz,

I would call a vote of no confidence if you were my Captain!

Cook does not have a responsibility to Betfair Risk Management Analyst's! The first task is to make the game safe and the second to win it. If the Aussie batsmen had applied themselves to the task they could have taken the game into the fifth day for sure but if they did they would also have had the chance of winning it if it didn't rain. If Cook had declared at 350 lead and Aussies won, I would have been the first to get out my hammer to nail him to the cross.

I'm with whisperingdeath on this one and i suspect nearly all england fans as well-there is no way he should have declared when only 350 up imo that would have been suicidal WD gives the exact reasons why

there is no way anyone could have realised, from the forecast, how much it was going to rain-in fact if the Aussies had known they would have batted in a completely different way and saved the match (probably easily)

as it was it pissed down virtually all day-Im 3 miles from the ground and I dont think they would have played at all, thankfully the Ashes started on Wednesday as it has rained all day today as well

thought they played it perfectly on friday getting a 400+ lead and then bowling first thing on saturday morning when bowling conditions were likely to be the most favourable. it absolutely tipped down on friday night as well

in theory they could have cracks with a new ball first thing, 7 or 8 overs before the close (or longer if claiming the extra half hour) and then another go with a nearly new ball on sunday morning if it hadn't rained

WD I can't agree with that, imo the first task is to win the match, once that becomes an impossibility then worry about saving it (within reason). This opinion formed after watching recent Oz captains such as Taylor, Steve Waugh, Ponting and Clarke have fantastic success with aggressive tactics, in particular aggressive declarations. They NEVER FEARED LOSING!! Hell would have frozen over before they would have considered not declaring in the same situation as Cook was with 10 overs left on day 3.

Doesn't make it right or wrong, just means anyones opinion on this comes down to what they're used to watching I guess. I've seen many a market get caught out by aggressive Oz declarations over the years. On the flip side... I'm sure there's a lot of Aussie punters who have lost money expecting other teams to declare only for them to bat and bat and bat until the game is absoulutely safe.

Either way the market on this match was quite bizarre. $3.50 to chase down 400+ is one of the best value lay bets you're ever likely to see

Charkitz,

With respect all of those Aussie Captains had some damn fine bowlers to back them up. Cook had no such guarantee that Anderson and Broad would not return to bowling filth like they did much of last summer and some of this.

No Warne, no McGrath. These two mop up six wickets in each innings. It's all very well playing aggressive cricket but when you talk the talk you have to walk the walk. Aus previously had the bowlers to do that. This summer they have talked big but ended up being humiliated.  The quality of 5th day pitches has improved enormusly. I am not saying anyone could have scored 412 batting last but I am sure plenty of teams around the world could have made a decent fist of chasing 350.

I doubt any Test Captain and like I said nearly every Betfair risk Analyst would have declared either. I think you are in a minority of 1 on this one.

If you want to look at great declarations Stuart Surridge's Surrey one bowled out the opposition for 33 odd then knocked up 100 for only a couple of wickets and he then declared and bowled the other side out again for about 36, won the game and got maximum points. The other 3 day games that started on that day were all rained off for the following two days and the points Surridge got by declaring so outrageously won Surrey the title. This is more accurate from cricinfo....

Two other extraordinary matches illustrated what a bold captain could do on uncovered pitches. Against Warwickshire at The Oval in 1953 play started 30 minutes late. Warwickshire were quickly hustled out for 45. Surrey raced to 146 with Surridge hitting three sixes himself. Then they routed the visitors in 70 minutes for 52. Surridge claimed the extra half-hour and won in a day by an innings and 49. A year later, on another wet pitch, Worcestershire were dismissed for 25 and 40, losing by an innings and 27 runs in only five hours' play after Surridge had declared at 92 for three. This declaration was apparently regarded as insane by many of the Surrey players but Surridge had rung up for a weather forecast and was determined to finish the game.

One thing you were right about was the market confidence that Aussie could chase down that total. It was actually quite unnerving seeing those prices. I had to bet a lot to make a little and the downside risk was unpleasant. I thought the only way Aus could win was a combination of a Warner assault twinned with a Rogers limpet operation. Smith and Clarke could have turned the pressure onto England. For me it was an Emperors new clothes " moment. I knew they could not win but  at 100-1 it was most disconcerting and as I was over stretched I could not hammer at the free money.

Totally agree WD. Very unnerving..

I was talking to a mate today saying Eng And Oz were evens at 90-1. He was staggered and asked if I had layed Oz..


I didn't () because eventually 400 will be chased more regularly. Just not sure when! It was a featherbed of a pitch and it was day 4 not 5 with no Swann or other top class tweaker.

Batsmen, whilst more aggresive and able to score more quickly have lost the art to bat for long periods. Australia's capitulation was pretty poor.

When I was aggresively laying Aus day 4, it was with an eye on the day 5 weather. In fact, I was more confident that there wouldn't be enough overs day 5 for a result (or at least look like it in the morning), than I was Aus would get bowled out day 4.

The latter eventuated, but I would have made money had there been a draw.

I recall Aus started the chase sub 4, which was just too short even without the prospect of weather day 5.

I'd be interested to see if there is a trend to bigger 4th inn totals. I suspect there is but not as large as some may think. And to counter that, games are moving ahead faster than in the past. All in all, I think draws are becoming less frequent, which Crunchies stats seem to bear out.

there may be a trend to be bigger 4th inns totals but gut feeling is teams are still starting far too short in such chases. for example england were something like 5/4 to get 350 in about 110 overs at headingley last year and 6/4 to get 320 at lords against india

there have only been 9 successful 350+ chases in test history 4 of which have been in the last 10 years. in the vast majority of cases teams still fall well short

Nice stats maf!

But when you have your money down and you are thinking will they make history and wipe me out in the process it is extremely unnerving.  Really dumb when you think about it. I hate it when people say " free money " ( ignoring myself just recently! ) but laying the chase of 350+ is free money I guess. It's just like you have to be a memeber of Lloyds to have enough money to wager almost risk free.

If you are of the inclination I would be interested in seconnd innings totals in recent times comparison. I always thought the country and pitch were crucial like the Windies pitches of the 70's and 80's. I think Lords could provide a big 4th innings if the sun shone on days 4 and 5. I remember Sehwag smashing it to all parts and basically winning a game in the last session of day 4. I am not sure but he got about 80 odd and the back of the time / overs pressure was over. They knocked off 250 odd runs the next day. Warner scares me. He averages more in the second innings!

Anyway I think you are right teams are way to short chasing. If only I could have enough money at that stage of the game...it will never happen!

pxb,

The weather did for me or rather it didn't. I thought the pitch was relatively placid and Aus would make it into day 5 so after laying Aus started buying the draw. After the third morning capitulation I had to back England heavily. I am glad it came off for you. Despite being the bleedin' obvious thing to day it takes large cajones.

WD, i was at cardiff and didn't think for a second england wouldn't win even approaching lunch. often in these sort of chases teams put together a decent partnership for one of the first few wickets and look like they might be in with a shout before collapsing in a heap. just a question of being patient

the case you refer to is when india chased down 380 against england in 2008. as you say sehwag smashed it everywhere before sachin finished it off with 100 0n day 5. warner tends to do very well in the 3rd inns coming when they have a lead. he did that several times in 2013/14

when i get time i'll have a look at all the targets set between 350 and 450 in recent years

Looking forward to this next Test Match. A different venue, a different pitch, a different Australian wicketkeeper/batsman, I expect he may be rather good, most Aussies are. Hopefully England can keep its real high intensity. I think it may be quite a close game, the Lords Test Matches, usually goes into the Final Session, before a positive result is known, but with quicker scoring rates, it may be Day 5, session 1, its decided. Lets hope for another win for England, but it may well be a very close finish.