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I expect Zim to win this easily, despite UAE being something of an unknown quantity.
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I'm pretty confident Zim will trade above evens today
forced myself to split for 40%, cant be bad, need sleep...
have a good one..
have a good one..
Have Zim ever chased down a total of this magnitude?
Or have UAE ever defended a total, let alone 285??
Or have UAE ever defended a total, let alone 285??
One of them was Australia though. Problem with all of that is that when they are chasing, they don't do too bad. Sure getting beaten by plenty, but last 3 games against SA have lost by around 63 runs on each occassion, chasing. Add to that, all bar about 3 of those 20 games, they chased, so they are far from uncomfortable batting second, or at least they should be.
Their bowling is terrible, and fielding pretty ordinary too, but if they are only 60 runs worse than SA when chasing, they cruise this on what is seen to be a pretty good batting wicket.
Big difference between chasing and putting a respectable score on, than chasing and winning, but the bowling will not be special here, so see no reason they don't chase it.
Have to think SA would have scored 360-380 against them today on this deck, which puts Afghan 30 runs behind that comparison, with a bowling attack nowhere near as lethal.
Therefore can't knock the odds too much. Thought early in game 1.50 for around 275. Extra 10 runs for the same odds.
Expecting Zimbabwe to be under 1.50 for most of this innings, so initially will be looking for a chance to back them and ride the odds in, but can't do that until I see the first over or 3 if no wickets fall.
Their bowling is terrible, and fielding pretty ordinary too, but if they are only 60 runs worse than SA when chasing, they cruise this on what is seen to be a pretty good batting wicket.
Big difference between chasing and putting a respectable score on, than chasing and winning, but the bowling will not be special here, so see no reason they don't chase it.
Have to think SA would have scored 360-380 against them today on this deck, which puts Afghan 30 runs behind that comparison, with a bowling attack nowhere near as lethal.
Therefore can't knock the odds too much. Thought early in game 1.50 for around 275. Extra 10 runs for the same odds.
Expecting Zimbabwe to be under 1.50 for most of this innings, so initially will be looking for a chance to back them and ride the odds in, but can't do that until I see the first over or 3 if no wickets fall.
I'm using all my green & stake to back Zim - brave or stupid, we will see!!
my logic is based on the last game here, & also how every batsmen seemed at ease (even the tailenders were creaming it)
i am just going to adopt the 'back after every wicket' method
always a sign of a good deck when all the wickets fall to catches!
Feb 18, 2015 -- 8:11PM, Welshie5121 wrote:
i am just going to adopt the 'back after every wicket' method
yeh reload after each wicket will be a good option, would of worked in the UAE inns too
where's the sibanda guy? anyone know whats happened to him?
Welshie right onto it. Markets like this that love a certain team, by far the best way to go. Every wicket might be a stretch, as there will be a scenario and number of wickets the market switches love, but should easily pick up 5-10 ticks in an over after a wicket assuming another one doesn't fall.
Not very convincing here. 3 that could have easily been out. Have to lay cheap and small here for a wicket. Will have a couple of small lays tinkered down and only cancel if they look more composed, but they can't time it here, so 285 starting to look a lot bigger.
what standard do you reckon uae are? county? or minor county?
In England, they would be undefeated at county.
Australia, some of them may get a game in grade cricket.
Australia, some of them may get a game in grade cricket.
Actually probably better line/length bowlers than the national team from what I have seen so far.
tbf eng thrashed Ind but Aus have been too good for everyone for ages
my only concern backing Aus for the tournament is they haven't had a collapse for so long, they may be saving it for a knockout game. Hopefully!!
I think some of these minnow teams are pretty decent actually. Don't think there is a huge huge gap. Massive gap in fielding, and 50 over consistency, but plenty of signs that they wouldn't be far off the mark given the opportunity. Not bad for part time cricketers anyway.
last time i saw Aus "taken apart" in a ODI was in Zim against SA. They still made 220 though!!
Yeah, but they give themselves every opportunity to do so. Too often the tail needs to wag to get us over the line, which is good to have that batting ability all the way down the order, but can't afford to rely on it constantly.
Aus NZ the clear 2 to make the final for me, but any team in the top 6 could take them out if things went their way on the day.
Aus do need Faulkner fit though to go all the way. He is their trump card for mine.
Aus NZ the clear 2 to make the final for me, but any team in the top 6 could take them out if things went their way on the day.
Aus do need Faulkner fit though to go all the way. He is their trump card for mine.
Faulkner cost me money once against Ind & now he is in my goat category. When that long haired **** Sharma went for 30odd in an over.
a top side would score 400 on this deck, it's fantastic for batting
Agree about Faulkner. Huge loss for Oz.
Clarke coming back doesn't fill me with confidence. Too liable to get injured, and chances are it will happen in a key match.
Clarke coming back doesn't fill me with confidence. Too liable to get injured, and chances are it will happen in a key match.
With you there Welshie - 1.64 to 1.44 in the blink of an eye 
(1.48 in my case)
(1.48 in my case)
1.66 I got some how, was looking for 1.64 at the time. So 1.66 --> 1.46 for me. Waiting for the next oppo
Terrible way to go out that. Was just starting to get a good green up going too.
Shouldn't see a dismissal like that at a World Cup, I guess it is only Zimbabwe though.
1.44 this time, let's see.
Feels like candy from a baby.
Feels like candy from a baby.
Terrible value I would think. No way you see that anywhere close to every 8-10 games.
Well done Welshie, I'm going to have to sweat a bit more
I waited a little longer after the dismissal because of who it was.
Thought the market would panic a little. Hit 1.7x
Thought the market would panic a little. Hit 1.7x
i backed zim when taylor referred that @ 1.35. Thought is was going down leg
just straightened to my horror!
just straightened to my horror!
Did all the right things except trading out enough this innings. Added about 20% of what I should have, but traded out now. Another wicket we near see 2.00, so waiting for a better opportunity. Should still win from here, but but dangerous time if they stumble at all.
back to 1.35 now & think i'm going to walk away for a bit!
they are making hard work of this against some occasional bowling
Feb 18, 2015 -- 10:14PM, jucel69 wrote:
i backed zim when taylor referred that @ 1.35. Thought is was going down leg just straightened to my horror!
Yeah, dodgy angle. Looked like it hit him on about leg, although I thought still hitting. Tech said hit him on middle and off or something.
This is far from over. I don't think Zimbabwe have much left to come after these two, certainly not much that can be relied upon.
Houdini'ed out at 1.31 - lucky escape but happy enough.
it was the fact it straightened like a doosra that got me. Trying to be too clever. Anyway no harm done
Feb 18, 2015 -- 10:16PM, jewell wrote:
This is far from over. I don't think Zimbabwe have much left to come after these two, certainly not much that can be relied upon.
ervine and chig are pretty decent , especially against this attack on this deck. Maybe dip back in if zim go really low
Zim tail could be bowled out by under 14's side. I want me some 2.0x :::::))))))))))))
Feb 18, 2015 -- 10:16PM, Gnarley wrote:
Houdini'ed out at 1.31 - lucky escape but happy enough.
lol, wd
just go all in on zim when they loose a wicket easy as that multiple trades
Feb 18, 2015 -- 10:19PM, Trainy wrote:
just go all in on zim when they loose a wicket easy as that multiple trades
Idea is to have little or no risk in the market.
Go all in, you're at risk if they lose another quick wicket.
This way, you have your stake in for 1 or 2 overs maximum.
Doing it sensibly in increments.
At the point where it may start getting dangerous backing on the wicket. Get it wrong, we see 2.60 Zimbabwe.
Ditto that Welshie.
1.68 this time, albeit for less stake, getting risky.
1.68 this time, albeit for less stake, getting risky.
Didn't take the 1.7 then, thought it may creep up a little. Getting tricky now, going to be way over 2.0 soon (just off run rate I think)
felt really confident they would chase this but happy to be out for now
couldn't see them being bowled out, but that's looking a possibility now
dot balls are hopefully going to push this total up.
As soon as they get to 7.5/8 an over odds will fly up
As soon as they get to 7.5/8 an over odds will fly up
They have these two and one other to come in. After that the quality of batting falls away sharply.
Agree with that KoD, more or less but I'm impressed with UAE's approach to this. Seems like a team not stiffled by history and willing to shake the tail of the tiger,
Good luck to 'em, the feckers!
Good luck to 'em, the feckers!
Laid Zim at 1.11 for a miniscule amount, just to see if my luch is really in or if it has just been taunting me!
could still be quite close 6.4 rr & 5 wickets down 1.10
Only ended up trading 3 times, but for 20% of initial stake in green on Zim each time, I am not complaining.
Night all.
Night all.
Night Welshie.
I think it's about I hit the sack as well, I have work in the morning!
I think it's about I hit the sack as well, I have work in the morning!
lol.
Cooked my own goose with the 1.11 lay of Zim but in the grand scheme of things I'm off to bed with a warm, fuzzy feeling rather than the "Holy Fook" motion that I normally trot to.
Cooked my own goose with the 1.11 lay of Zim but in the grand scheme of things I'm off to bed with a warm, fuzzy feeling rather than the "Holy Fook" motion that I normally trot to.
Yeah, night Welshie. It's been non-emotional but enjoyable all the same.
Sleep well.
Sleep well.
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