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pxb
18 Feb 15 22:21
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
I expect Zim to win this easily, despite UAE being something of an unknown quantity.
Pause Switch to Standard View CWC2015 Zimbabwe v UAE at Nelson
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Report wisewords February 19, 2015 1:32 AM GMT
anyone looked at Zim's recent record?
Report wisewords February 19, 2015 1:33 AM GMT
2 wins in 20 cricket matches.
Report GRANTCKING February 19, 2015 1:33 AM GMT
LaughLaughLaugh
Report wisewords February 19, 2015 1:35 AM GMT
I'm pretty confident Zim will trade above evens today
Report peckerdunne February 19, 2015 1:41 AM GMT
forced myself to split for 40%, cant be bad, need sleep...

have a good one..
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 1:55 AM GMT
Have Zim ever chased down a total of this magnitude?

Or have UAE ever defended a total, let alone 285??
Report BJT February 19, 2015 1:55 AM GMT
One of them was Australia though.  Problem with all of that is that when they are chasing, they don't do too bad.  Sure getting beaten by plenty, but last 3 games against SA have lost by around 63 runs on each occassion, chasing.  Add to that, all bar about 3 of those 20 games, they chased, so they are far from uncomfortable batting second, or at least they should be.

Their bowling is terrible, and fielding pretty ordinary too, but if they are only 60 runs worse than SA when chasing, they cruise this on what is seen to be a pretty good batting wicket.

Big difference between chasing and putting a respectable score on, than chasing and winning, but the bowling will not be special here, so see no reason they don't chase it.


Have to think SA would have scored 360-380 against them today on this deck, which puts Afghan 30 runs behind that comparison, with a bowling attack nowhere near as lethal.

Therefore can't knock the odds too much.  Thought early in game 1.50 for around 275.  Extra 10 runs for the same odds.


Expecting Zimbabwe to be under 1.50 for most of this innings, so initially will be looking for a chance to back them and ride the odds in, but can't do that until I see the first over or 3 if no wickets fall.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:00 AM GMT
I'm using all my green & stake to back Zim - brave or stupid, we will see!!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:05 AM GMT
my logic is based on the last game here, & also how every batsmen seemed at ease (even the tailenders were creaming it)
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 2:11 AM GMT
i am just going to adopt the 'back after every wicket' method
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:11 AM GMT
always a sign of a good deck when all the wickets fall to catches!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:12 AM GMT

Feb 19, 2015 -- 3:11AM, Welshie5121 wrote:


i am just going to adopt the 'back after every wicket' method


yeh reload after each wicket will be a good option, would of worked in the UAE inns too

Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:14 AM GMT
market loves zim!
Report lanza February 19, 2015 2:15 AM GMT
where's the sibanda guy?  anyone know whats happened to him?
Report BJT February 19, 2015 2:16 AM GMT
Welshie right onto it.  Markets like this that love a certain team, by far the best way to go.  Every wicket might be a stretch, as there will be a scenario and number of wickets the market switches love, but should easily pick up 5-10 ticks in an over after a wicket assuming another one doesn't fall.
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 2:16 AM GMT
opening bowler wasn't too bad.
Report BJT February 19, 2015 2:34 AM GMT
Not very convincing here.  3 that could have easily been out.  Have to lay cheap and small here for a wicket.  Will have a couple of small lays tinkered down and only cancel if they look more composed, but they can't time it here, so 285 starting to look a lot bigger.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:35 AM GMT
what standard do you reckon uae are? county? or minor county?
Report BJT February 19, 2015 2:36 AM GMT
In England, they would be undefeated at county.

Australia, some of them may get a game in grade cricket.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:36 AM GMT
Laugh
Report BJT February 19, 2015 2:36 AM GMT
BlushBlush
Report RLACML February 19, 2015 2:37 AM GMT
Scotland are better than UAE
Report BJT February 19, 2015 2:37 AM GMT
Actually probably better line/length bowlers than the national team from what I have seen so far.LaughLaugh
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:38 AM GMT
tbf eng thrashed Ind but Aus have been too good for everyone for ages
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:40 AM GMT
my only concern backing Aus for the tournament is they haven't had a collapse for so long, they may be saving it for a knockout game. Hopefully!!
Report BJT February 19, 2015 2:43 AM GMT
I think some of these minnow teams are pretty decent actually. Don't think there is a huge huge gap.  Massive gap in fielding, and 50 over consistency, but plenty of signs that they wouldn't be far off the mark given the opportunity.  Not bad for part time cricketers anyway.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:44 AM GMT
last time i saw Aus "taken apart" in a ODI was in Zim against SA. They still made 220 though!!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:45 AM GMT
going the journey now
Report BJT February 19, 2015 2:47 AM GMT
Yeah, but they give themselves every opportunity to do so.  Too often the tail needs to wag to get us over the line, which is good to have that batting ability all the way down the order, but can't afford to rely on it constantly.

Aus NZ the clear 2 to make the final for me, but any team in the top 6 could take them out if things went their way on the day. 

Aus do need Faulkner fit though to go all the way.  He is their trump card for mine.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:48 AM GMT
Faulkner cost me money once against Ind & now he is in my goat category. When that long haired **** Sharma went for 30odd in an over.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 2:54 AM GMT
a top side would score 400 on this deck, it's fantastic for batting
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 3:20 AM GMT
First 20 tick back lay landed. Took 5 balls.
Report pxb February 19, 2015 3:23 AM GMT
Agree about Faulkner. Huge loss for Oz.

Clarke coming back doesn't fill me with confidence. Too liable to get injured, and chances are it will happen in a key match.
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 3:24 AM GMT
With you there Welshie - 1.64 to 1.44 in the blink of an eye Happy (1.48 in my case)
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 3:25 AM GMT
1.66 I got some how, was looking for 1.64 at the time. So 1.66 --> 1.46 for me. Waiting for the next oppo
Report BJT February 19, 2015 3:46 AM GMT
Terrible way to go out that.  Was just starting to get a good green up going too.
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 3:46 AM GMT
Shouldn't see a dismissal like that at a World Cup, I guess it is only Zimbabwe though.
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 3:46 AM GMT
1.44 this time, let's see.

Feels like candy from a baby.
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 3:47 AM GMT
With you Gnarley
Report BJT February 19, 2015 3:48 AM GMT
Get em boys.  Babies shouldn't have candy anyway.  LoveLove
Report BJT February 19, 2015 3:50 AM GMT
Terrible value I would think.  No way you see that anywhere close to every 8-10 games.
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 3:50 AM GMT
1.33 will do - will go lower no doubt.
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 3:51 AM GMT
taken 1.36
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 3:51 AM GMT
tried to wait for 1.3
Report Vince_Bluett February 19, 2015 4:01 AM GMT
Def out
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:03 AM GMT
1.44 again for another tilt
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:05 AM GMT
Taken 1.6
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:06 AM GMT
starting to make a pig ear of thisLaugh
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:08 AM GMT
1.45 landed
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:09 AM GMT
Well done Welshie, I'm going to have to sweat a bit moreLaugh
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:11 AM GMT
I waited a little longer after the dismissal because of who it was.

Thought the market would panic a little. Hit 1.7x
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:14 AM GMT
i backed zim when taylor referred that @ 1.35. Thought is was going down legCrazy just straightened to my horror!
Report BJT February 19, 2015 4:14 AM GMT
Did all the right things except trading out enough this innings.  Added about 20% of what I should have, but traded out now.  Another wicket we near see 2.00, so waiting for a better opportunity.  Should still win from here, but but dangerous time if they stumble at all.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:14 AM GMT
back to 1.35 now & think i'm going to walk away for a bit!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:15 AM GMT
they are making hard work of this against some occasional bowling
Report BJT February 19, 2015 4:15 AM GMT

Feb 19, 2015 -- 5:14AM, jucel69 wrote:


i backed zim when taylor referred that @ 1.35. Thought is was going down leg just straightened to my horror!


Yeah, dodgy angle.  Looked like it hit him on about leg, although I thought still hitting.  Tech said hit him on middle and off or something.

Report jewell February 19, 2015 4:16 AM GMT
This is far from over. I don't think Zimbabwe have much left to come after these two, certainly not much that can be relied upon.
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:16 AM GMT
Houdini'ed out at 1.31 - lucky escape but happy enough.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:16 AM GMT
it was the fact it straightened like a doosra that got me. Trying to be too clever. Anyway no harm done
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:17 AM GMT

Feb 19, 2015 -- 5:16AM, jewell wrote:


This is far from over. I don't think Zimbabwe have much left to come after these two, certainly not much that can be relied upon.


ervine and chig are pretty decent , especially against this attack on this deck. Maybe dip back in if zim go really low

Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:17 AM GMT
Zim tail could be bowled out by under 14's side. I want me some 2.0x :::::))))))))))))
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:18 AM GMT

Feb 19, 2015 -- 5:16AM, Gnarley wrote:


Houdini'ed out at 1.31 - lucky escape but happy enough.


lol, wd

Report Trainy February 19, 2015 4:19 AM GMT
just go all in on zim when they loose a wicket easy as that multiple trades
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:23 AM GMT

Feb 19, 2015 -- 5:19AM, Trainy wrote:


just go all in on zim when they loose a wicket easy as that multiple trades


Idea is to have little or no risk in the market.

Go all in, you're at risk if they lose another quick wicket.

This way, you have your stake in for 1 or 2 overs maximum.

Doing it sensibly in increments.

Report BJT February 19, 2015 4:24 AM GMT
At the point where it may start getting dangerous backing on the wicket.  Get it wrong, we see 2.60 Zimbabwe.
Report Trainy February 19, 2015 4:24 AM GMT
here we go 1.7 :)
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:26 AM GMT
Ditto that Welshie.
1.68 this time, albeit for less stake, getting risky.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:27 AM GMT
real risk and reward time now!
Report Trainy February 19, 2015 4:27 AM GMT
i'm out 50% at 1.53 already easy money lads
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:27 AM GMT
Didn't take the 1.7 then, thought it may creep up a little. Getting tricky now, going to be way over 2.0 soon (just off run rate I think)
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:28 AM GMT
1.54 and out. Smash and grab.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:29 AM GMT
zim are starting to look very edgy!
Report Trainy February 19, 2015 4:30 AM GMT
well done i think zim are a value back here
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:30 AM GMT
feel a thai coming onLaugh
Report jewell February 19, 2015 4:30 AM GMT
Zim are making a right dog's dinner of this chase.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:31 AM GMT
felt really confident they would chase this but happy to be out for now
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:32 AM GMT
couldn't see them being bowled out, but that's looking a possibility now
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 4:32 AM GMT
dot balls are hopefully going to push this total up.

As soon as they get to 7.5/8 an over odds will fly up
Report jewell February 19, 2015 4:32 AM GMT
They have these two and one other to come in. After that the quality of batting falls away sharply.
Report jewell February 19, 2015 4:34 AM GMT
PP is going to be the deciding factor I think.
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:44 AM GMT
Agree with that KoD, more or less but I'm impressed with UAE's approach to this. Seems like a team not stiffled by history and willing to shake the tail of the tiger,
Good luck to 'em, the feckers!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:45 AM GMT
just like that 1.3
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:55 AM GMT
Laid Zim at 1.11 for a miniscule amount, just to see if my luch is really in or if it has just been taunting me!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:55 AM GMT
could still be quite close 6.4 rr & 5 wickets down 1.10
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 4:55 AM GMT
had a big lay of 1.1 for a wciket fingers crossed
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:56 AM GMT
*minuscule
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 4:57 AM GMT
*luck or lunchLaugh
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 5:00 AM GMT
wow that was a quick sting!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 5:02 AM GMT
vile over Laugh
Report Welshie5121 February 19, 2015 5:02 AM GMT
Only ended up trading 3 times, but for 20% of initial stake in green on Zim each time, I am not complaining.

Night all.
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 5:02 AM GMT
Way to do it juice69
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 5:02 AM GMT
laid again 1.03,
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 5:03 AM GMT
hail mary time!!!
Report jewell February 19, 2015 5:04 AM GMT
Night Welshie.

I think it's about I hit the sack as well, I have work in the morning!
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 5:07 AM GMT
lol.

Cooked my own goose with the 1.11 lay of Zim but in the grand scheme of things I'm off to bed with a warm, fuzzy feeling rather than the "Holy Fook" motion that I normally trot to.
Report Gnarley February 19, 2015 5:09 AM GMT
Yeah, night Welshie. It's been non-emotional but enjoyable all the same.
Sleep well.
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 5:10 AM GMT
come on the arabs!!!!!!!!!
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 5:13 AM GMT
williams get out and it will be tight
Report Trainy February 19, 2015 5:20 AM GMT
i'm brickin a thai
Report jucel69 February 19, 2015 5:22 AM GMT
they might take it to the last over playing like this!
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