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mr_sykes
16 Dec 14 18:31
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Date Joined: 08 Nov 06
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only a couple of months away now,who will win it and why?

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By:
lanza
When: 13 Jan 15 14:55
Aus v india / sa final.

would have said without doubt last year that i was backing australia.  With so many key players in form they looked the outstanding bet. 

Now im not too sure, i still expect them to do well, even win it, but im less confident.  With doubts over clarke and johnson (who to me is the aussie key man) and poor form from finch, watson, bailey, an under par maxwell the batting unit looks shaky at the moment.  Can warner / smith score enough runs?

the bowling unit with johnson, on these pitches looks good.  Lose Johnson tho and the pressure reverts back to the batters to score enough runs.  We've all seen mitchell marsh, faulkner, starc, cummings, all go for runs at one time or another.  Hazlewood, iv not seen much of.  Would not have picked Doherty, would have given spin duties to maxwell / smith alone

possible line up...
warner
finch /clarke
watson
smith
bailey
maxwell
haddin
marsh / faulkner
johnson
starc
hazlewood / cummings / doherty

great batting depth on paper, top 7 looks good, if clarke makes it and with bailey vice captain, maybe watson opens and finch misses out.

---------------------------------------------------------------
South africa,  dont win major comps :-) or do they?

Look strong in most areas, long batting line up, some power hitters , maybe not quite as explsoive hitters as australia lower order / tail.  Need miller to find some ipl hitting form. How's jp injury?  Behardien is out of his depth.

Which Tahir will turn up?  Looks like storngest bowling line up with steyn, morkel, philander, parnell, abbott, jp.

amla
quinton
faf
ab
jp duminy
miller
parnell / behardien / rossouw
morkel
steyn
philander / abott / phangiso
tahir

starting to like the look of those... sa dont win tho...right? Grin
------------------------------------------------------------
nz,  i normally have these running for me but 3rd favs?  i know their at home, i know they had a good test year, i know brendon is awesome but 3rd fav's?   Biggest losers for me at the mo.

brendon
guptil
kane
taylor
latham / elliott
anderon
ronchi
southee
vettori / mccullum
boult
mills / mcclenaghan / milne

dont look as stong batting wise on paper as aus / sa or have as good a bowling unit as sa.  Not sure vettori will take many wickets but might control one end.  Would always worry, lose 2 wickets in the swinging conditions, say mculuum and kane and then your only a few wickets away from the tail.  would have preferred someone like ryder / rutherford at the top and kept mucullum further back.  Looks like a few unlucky kiwi's didnt make the squad.
----------------------------------------------------------------
india.
dhawan
sharma
kholi
raina
rahane
dhoni
rayudu
jadeja / ashwin / binny / akshar
kumar
shami
yadav / ishant

have no idea of the order the indians will go with, to me there's something iffy i cant quite put me finger on. yuvi another missing id have gone with.  My world 11 of players not making it, looks good at this point.  Another strong batting line up, and on a turner they'd be big favs.  Really need kumar / shami and ishant to step up.

----------------------------------------------------------------
sri lanka
cant see how these score enough runs, would have thought kusual would have been picked. a-mendis not made it either, would have choosen his wicket taking over jeevan's extra few runs. Picked lots of bowlers tho it seems.

karunaratne
dilsh
sanga
mahela
matthews
thirimanne / chandimal
Thisara perera
Jeevan Mendis / kulasekara
Malinga
senanayake / herath
prasad / lakmal
--------------------------------------------------------

england... cant win LaughCool

bell-ali-ballance-root-taylor-morgan-bopara-butler-broad-anderson-finn

subs..hales, jordan, treadwell.  no kp, no luke right, no stokes

---------------------------------------------------------

pakistan  batting will have a shocker when it matters, bowling unit not the same threat in these conditons and no attack would be the same without ajmal / haffeez. Still have the making of a good team and if the openers / misbar / younis can score some runs, the big man and khan could do some damage.  Not sure how they make up their 50 overs tho. wahab chosen over gul it seems.

shehzad
hafeez
maqsood
younis
misbar
sarfraz
umar
afridi
wahab
khan
ifran

got a few players in the squad iv not seem that much of.  ehsan adil, haris sohail, sohail khan, yasir shah.
--------------------------------------------------------------
west indies,
really thought they had a chance at being the outsiders but not picking bravo and pollard is somewhat of a revenge joke it seems.

Gayle
smith /simmons
darren bravo
samuels
ramdin
russell
sammy
narine
taylor / cottrell
roach
holder

line up looks 2 bats short. Stick bravo and pollard in there and you have the world t20 winners (bar badree.  Not a fan of backing windies in anything other than t20.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
maybe a few minor upsets but cant see the likes of bangladesh, zim, ire etc getting past first stage of comp.
--------------------------------------------------------------

A world cup missing squad players, would do ok i reckon, need a few fast men tho.

kusal perra (sri lanka)  / vijay (ind)
ryder (nz) / rutherford (nz)
kp (england)
yuvi (ind)
d-karthik (ind)
bravo  (wi)
pollard (wi)
gul (pak)
mendis (srl)  / badree (wi) / ajmal (pak)

---------------------------------------------------------------
Thinking of dutching aus-sa-india in the... to make the final market.

top bats...can feel a top bat mug acca coming along.
By:
lanza
When: 13 Jan 15 15:49
just having a look at the groups, noticed format is suggestion a1 v b4 etc etc etc.

group a.....australia, sri lanka, nz, eng, ban, afgan, scotland.

group b.....sa, india, pak, w.i, zim, ire, uae.

who's gonna get 400 v uae? 450 maybe? lol. be interesting to see the initial even money run line in thoe games. could be the highest iv ever seen. Evens 400 runs?  haha.

thought the aus/ nz world cup share would have meant they were in different groups.  Aus playing in nz would have been like eng playing wales in cardiff and that would never happen!  lol.
By:
lanza
When: 13 Jan 15 15:59
india v uae at perth,
pak v uae at napier,
sa v uae at wellington Shocked
wi v ua at napier Shocked

hope uae bowl first. Laugh
By:
lanza
When: 13 Jan 15 16:37
just seen aswell...

if aus qualify for a quarter then they will play in quarter final 3.
if nz qualify for quarter... they will play in q4.


-if nz then qualify for the semi, they will play semi 1 unless they play aus where team finishing higher in group gets home advantage
-if aus then qualify for the semi, then they will in semi 2 unless they play nz when team finishing higer in group gets home advantage.

just trying to get me head around this bit and work out what it means. is it aus / nz can only play each other after the group game in the semi?  quite complicated this.

so would expect both aus / nz to finish in top 4 in group
q1...?? v ??
q2...?? v ??
q3...aus v ??
q4...nz v ??

if nz win q4... they play in semi1  unless its against aus  where team that finsihed higher in group plays at home.

if aus win q3... they play in semi2 unless its against nz and then again depends on group order

im taking from this that q1 will play q2 and q3play q4.  Just depends on where.

aus..nz...eng...sl   v  sa...ind...wi...pak

would mean:
q1....??? v ???
q2....??? v ???
q3....aus v pak
q4....nz  v wi

no idea how they decide q1+q2  or if both aus / nz lost in quarters where in this case pak-wi would play the semi....complicated or what.Laugh
By:
pxb
When: 13 Jan 15 20:38
I'll see how India go in the tri-series, but their batting line up looks the best in the tournament. Their bowling of course will let them down, but it can be good in patches, and in a 50 over game that could be good enough.

I can't warm to SAF as 2nd favourites. They'll come into this underdone and could struggle on NZ pitches.

Pakistan will as usual both surprise and disapoint, but will also struggle on NZ pitches.

NZ should make it to the semis. And I think SL too.

Australia's to lose, but to whom? India?

BTW, lanza makes a good point. Who gets to play where in the quarters and semis could well make the difference.
By:
lanza
When: 13 Jan 15 21:21
hi pxb,

i like india's batting on paper and i can see them making the semi's atleast, im just not sure how they will do in these conditions.  Didnt they lose heavily in nz odi series recently?  Not convinced by the openers overseas either. Would have taken yuvi, think he's scored 3 100's in 3 innings lately.  Bowling...plenty of spin, really need the pacers to step up. 

Thought of everyone's schedule,  south africa was planned the best. mini series in nz then aus.  Cant remember the last test match they played and no daft tour to the subcontinent in prep for this world cup in totally different conditions. Would have liked a more powerfull opener than amla to go with quentin, ???, amla, faf, ab, jp, miller and with the bowling unit, really think they'l make the top semi with india. Keep amla opening, stick a prime kallis at 3 looks a good team that. lol.

pak, just cant have them, wont score enough, have 3 bowlers.

nz...trying to get a top up lay in at the moment, just cant see them winning. think the price is way short now. might make the semi's, i wouldnt be that surprised if they didnt. who would they wanna play / not play in the quarters?

Sl flatter to deceive for me. So many times i think their on for a 300-320 'par score' and fail to get even 275.  The big 2-3 go cheap and their in trouble.  Glad they recalled kulasekara, just remember his performances in the tri series down under win awhile ago where he swung it round corners.  hope malinga only going to play last 2 odi's in nz series is ok fitness wise. Would be nice to see them win a 50over comp. cant see it tho.

pxb...how do you see the groups unfolding??
By:
pxb
When: 13 Jan 15 22:32
lanza, here's my stab at the group results.

Pool A

Australia
SL
NZ
England

Pool B

India
SAF
Pak
WI

Which makes the semis,

Aus
India
SL
SAF/NZ

England a bit of a dark horse and could come through to 2nd place in their group, which would give them an easy game against PAK/WI and puts SL out.
By:
lanza
When: 13 Jan 15 23:14
pretty much agree with aus winners and pool b top 2 / bottom 2 (if slightly diff order).

If those orders were correct q3.... aus(1a) v windies(b4),  nz(1c) by coming 3 would play sa(b2) but nz still play in q4 and meet the winner of q3???.  India would then have much easier path...eng-sri/pak.

interesting if nz came 4th india 1st then, aus top the group play pak/wi. Sa could have nice path. Going to be lots of swings / price movements in this tourney the way they have it set out. 

Just trying to keep on top of things, gonna be a great trading event. Have to keep clear mind, be prepared and know how certain results impact the other group and vice versa.
By:
lanza
When: 14 Jan 15 10:16
LaughCool no mate. Watching on tv shouting for Wales + Kallis.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 20 Jan 15 20:51
good insight lads,fancy Australia a little myself,home advantage and maybe their name could be on it after the passing of Phil Hughes,Im sure they'll be hell bent on winning it for him,certainly looking forward to it...
By:
marychain1
When: 20 Jan 15 23:24
NZ for me, although SAF looking a bit dangerous Shocked
By:
Charkitz
When: 23 Jan 15 10:30
Can't see a winner outside of Aussies, Kiwis and Saffers. Wouldn't be surprised if Sri Lanka, India or Pakistan fail to make it out of their groups, maybe even more than one of them won't.

If Malinga can't recover from his injury in time then Sri Lanka may aswell not turn up
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 24 Jan 15 09:51
I am wondering if bowlers rather than batsmen might have a bigger influence in this world cup. Most teams have a decent batting line up, even......England! Give them a flat track and most teams will mash 300+

Only SAF and Aus have sharpness and depth to their bowling. This imho will carry them through better than the other teams.
By:
pxb
When: 24 Jan 15 21:20
Agree with you there, except steyn/Morkel are a bit past their best, while the likes of Starc/Cummins/Hazlewood are up and coming.
By:
SecondComing
When: 24 Jan 15 21:50

Jan 24, 2015 -- 9:51AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


I am wondering if bowlers rather than batsmen might have a bigger influence in this world cup. Most teams have a decent batting line up, even......England! Give them a flat track and most teams will mash 300+Only SAF and Aus have sharpness and depth to their bowling. This imho will carry them through better than the other teams.


That is what has happened in the T20 comp in Australia, it's been dominated by good bowling teams.. I know it's completely different but still it just goes to show having a class bowling unit is probably more important than having a class batting lineup

By:
marychain1
When: 28 Jan 15 00:11
Can anyone in this tournament hold a candle to the Aus bowling lineup? Do England have the second best bowling lineup????


Is there all of a sudden a real dearth of decent ODI bowlers?
By:
pxb
When: 28 Jan 15 00:30
I'd rate new ball bowling,

1. Aus
2. SAF
3. Eng maybe

Death bowling is rather more difficult to evaluate.
By:
lanza
When: 28 Jan 15 01:13
and as a unit id prob go for:

1, SAF 
2, Aus  (no mitchell johnson and Saf would be clear for me.

3, pretty much everyone else. eng / nz / pak / sl / ind / wi (no narine now)

I thought india's attack looked poor in the last world cup and champions trophy  Nice to finally see them go for jadeja as their next best bowler than maybe pick a fast man, not so good.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 29 Jan 15 11:12
I have to say I think SAF look the best all round team to me.

Styen, Phillander, Morkel and and and Tahir who might not be a Test bowler but is looking pretty decent in ODI.


Their batting has all the big hitters Australia has but is less fragile. They also have the ability of some of the Indian batsmen but a bowling unit to back them up. I think the Aus bowling unit is relatively vunerable to India, WI and England batting second on a decent pitch.

I think NZ are a great team and out weigh the sum of their parts by a long way but this is cricket not football. They are no Trojan Horse and will not emulate the Greeks at the Euro's.


I think the whole tournament will take shape at the quarter finals stage. There are 2 games in NZ. Will dew be a factor? Aus could face Gayle Force WI at Sydney, a gorund that may give the WI batsmen a btter chance than the Gabbattoir or Perth.  The Westpac and dew could be a factor if SA face NZ who may have one super game in them.

It should be Aus V SAF in my book unless a second tier team like England, WI, NZ, SL or India can spring a surprise in the knock out stages but that in my book is more likely to be down to conditions and luck.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 29 Jan 15 11:53
backed SA in the last World Cup,someone told me after they have choked in the past,any truth in that?
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 29 Jan 15 15:58
They have choked more than the All Blacks......but who won the last RWC?

I think they are a good bet but not for Winner just now at 4.5  you'd be better off taking and banking winnings through the group to the 2 knockout matches.

A better bet might be India at 9.8 as they will come in at Quarter Final Stage and should they win that go shorter for the Semi and that is a bout as far as they will probably go although as they are avoiding Aus they might still be a dark horse.

Aus to me at 3.3 might be a good lay as you are effectively backing a treble at 3.3 and that doesn't look great odds to me. Again I think you'd be better off backing and banking them through the Group and 2 knockout matches to bank some profit.

There might also be a touch in England at 11.5. They have 3 decent seamers who might do some damage in favourable conditions in the knockout stages. I don't expect them to progress too far but we now have a decent chance to make the knockout and their price will fall should they come through a quarter final.
By:
pxb
When: 29 Jan 15 20:55
SAF play a couple of warm up games in NZ just before the WC starts. I still feel they will be under done. We shall see?

No one is talking about Pak. They start a 2 match series against NZ tomorow. Generally get up for big matches and they could be a surprise package, but then maybe not.
By:
Charkitz
When: 31 Jan 15 07:25
It's becoming increasingly obvious that all the sub-continent teams will just be making up the numbers at the World Cup, they're all terrible when playing in OZ and NZ. India were a disgrace last year when they toured NZ.

They all lack quality in bowling. Their batting lineups look good on paper, but there inability to hit ones and twos is a killer, too many dots. Can get away with just hitting boundaries and sixes on sub-continent grounds but not in this part of the world

Sri Lanka should make it through their group but Pak and India are a big chance not to. Will definately be having a punt on India to miss out on quarters
By:
pixie
When: 01 Feb 15 01:20
Good post, Charkitz, agree with everything you say.

Seems so bleeding obvious but think the bet is Oz with a stake saver on Saffers. Kiwis clearly no mugs, neither England but not enough strength in depth to win a tournie but capable of pulling a great win out of the bag against quality opposition, Windies can't bowl and lack discipline, India (by far and away the best of the asians are hopeless away from home) as Charkitz says, can't bowl either.

Oz, almost by default imo - oh, and they can really bat and have the right balance, imo.
By:
Charkitz
When: 01 Feb 15 01:58
Geez Pixie we agree with each other again! Well I think we agreed on Arsene Wenger to an extent in the end atleast Laugh

Only differnece with how I'm thinking is that I'll be backing South Africa with a stake saver on Oz and NZ. Think De Villiers is the man to finally rid South Africa of their chocking tag, he's got all the right leadership qualities to get them over the line. It'll be close though, could come down to a dropped catch or poor umpiring decision to determine the winner.

The poms could surprise a few people and be the fourth team to make semi finals. They seem to have much better team spirit/morale now that most of the high egos are out of the squad.
By:
pixie
When: 01 Feb 15 02:22
I didn't like Anderson's response to Mark Nicholas's (valid) criticism of the way they bowled to the tail-end of India. The Burnley Lara arrogantly dismissed the question and claimed the bowling was excellent, when it was - until bowling at the stumps to knock out ten or eleven.

Still a few egos left and speaking of which, Broard is no strike bowler any more.CryCryCry

Kiwis are over bet and represent v poor value. I never bother with countries bottling bullsh1t: I was all over Spain when they won the World Cup (or Euros, can't remember which) for the first time when the hackneyed cliche was that they couldn't do it on the big stage. A ridiculous argument that is pretty much a slur on the whole nation considering that it was a different side from the one 4, 6 and 8 years before. Feel it's the same load of crap being thrown at Saffers. Don't think they'll win it this time either because Oz look better; may be wrong, but it won't be because they don't know how to win.
By:
Charkitz
When: 01 Feb 15 02:37
Yeah the chokers tag is completely unwarranted but it doesn't stop the media from carrying on about it. Doesn't bother me in the slighest either, as I said De Villiers will deal with the inevitable bombardment of chokers tag questions with aplomb, no worries there.
By:
Charkitz
When: 01 Feb 15 09:51
I would argue James Faulkner is Australia's most important player going into this World Cup. Fantastic batsmen and bowler at the death, it's crucial to have a player like this in clutch situations
By:
Charkitz
When: 01 Feb 15 10:15
Wtf? Just saw he's injured? Think I jinxed him Whoops
By:
lanza
When: 01 Feb 15 11:02
no australian bowler worries the opposition like mitch does,  no one has the ability to constantly rip through batting orders like mitch can.   

Its no surprise to me, that the mumbai indians won the ipl, australia the ashes, kings 11 faired well this yr in the ipl again and now aus are favs in the world cup.

All teams had the 'mitch factor'.  An firing mitch not only gives australia the abiltiy to take wickets but gives them so much confidence, he alows them / helps them to display that big brash aussie confidence / the swagger that the aussie teams have had in the past.

Faulkner good player for me, but not in the same league.  Australia could possibly replace faulkner, they couldnt replace mitch for me.
By:
Charkitz
When: 01 Feb 15 11:31
Fair call, you make a good case for Mitch.

I'll stick with Faulkner, he isn't the most technically brilliant player, batting or bowling, but man does he rise to the occassion when the team needs him most.

If the opposition needed 6 runs to win off last over of the match, I'd want Faulkner to be bowling it

If Oz needed 20 runs to win off final over, I'd want Faulkner at the strikers end
By:
pxb
When: 01 Feb 15 11:55
Time to focus on the WC.

Aus at 3 to win awfully short.
By:
lanza
When: 01 Feb 15 12:06
lol. i'l stick with mitch then.Happy

i just think, if mitch fire's, rips a few out early, he makes it easier for everyone in the aussie team to perform better. 

Faulkner gets to bowl at the lower order when they need to rebuild or are proper tailenders where he's far more effective, and if the aussies do limit the opponents scoring he might not even get to bat. 

I do get what you'r staying about him stepping up,(with his batting atleast) the indian tour he was great, along with a few memorable knocks in the ipl and today, he does step up.

It will be interesting to see if he is injured who australia would replace him with.  Id go for marsh there. 

I can only see australia struggling when like the last test series, someone momentarily goes after mitchell like kholi / vijay did. Get on top of their talisman (comes with risk) put the pressure back on them otherwise they seem to just get on top and swarm all over you.
By:
lanza
When: 01 Feb 15 12:15
i'd prob have the 2 fav's closer together but then id prob have them both shorter to begin with.

I cant have nz 3 fav's, guess im totally underrating them now
India havnt won for months
eng just let it slip and ended up with a hammering
sri lanka got beaten up by nz
pak got beaten up by nz
w.i in turmoil.

aus to win group.. s.a to win their group, should both have easier quarters to begin with atleast?
By:
Charkitz
When: 02 Feb 15 03:02
The thing is if you don't have NZ as third favs, then who do you have instead? Noone else deserves to be ahead of them for mine. Think the market is pricing them correctly, though I'm sure they'll come in much lower at some stage, they're almost certain to make semis atleast, if they avoid SA and Oz in quarters. If they play WI, India, SL, Eng, Pak they'll beat them comfortably imo. Can easily see the Kiwis winning the tournament with a bit of luck.

NZ actually have a well balanced team now, when the likes of Southee and Vettori aren't even guaranteed a game then there's nothing wrong with their bowling. They bat much deeper now with serious hitting power down the order in Ronchi and Anderson. Elliott is good at working singles and rotating strike. McCullum can win a game off his own bat. Williamson and Taylor are guns even if Taylor is out of form now. And their feilding has improved no end, McCullum leading by example in the field these days, always have 3 players backing up etc.
By:
Charkitz
When: 02 Feb 15 03:05
And of course the biggest factor of all for NZ is that they're playing all their group games on NZ pitches. Could easily finish top of their group.
By:
lanza
When: 02 Feb 15 09:47
Morning Charkitz, i see what you'r saying.

But Nz still my biggest red,  but taken windies, pak, bangladesh to almost same level now.  Someone also seems to have bet all the minnows which helped make them red aswell.  I have a see of red almost everywhere at the moment.

for me, nz 3rd fav's by default.  Everyone else has been fairly poor recently when playing the big 2. And whilst they look the best kiwi side for some time, they just dont do it for me.

In the quarter's / semi final's id be happy backing their opponents. They just dont scream world champs for me and A little over reliant on kane and brendon. 90 odd/5 with malinga coming in / herath...they dont get to 360/5  hahaha.

i dont think they play spin very well... at all and if a side puts up a big score and have a decent spinner they might struggle to get up.

They really should qualify for the last 8 but then might struggle / need some luck.  I hope they dont.  haha.
By:
Charkitz
When: 02 Feb 15 11:10
Morning? For some reason I thought you were an Aussie Laugh it's well and truly time to go to bed where I am

You make some good points, it's just I don't agree with a lot of them lol. They do rely on McCullum a tad but other teams rely on someone to a certain degree. SA - De Villiers, Sri Lanka - Sangakkara, WI - Dwayne Bravo... oh wait...

Besides is there a player that can single handedly win a match off their own bat better than McCullum can? He's got that X factor that a team like England desperately need

But good luck laying the Kiwis mate, hope you don't panic when they make the final Wink
By:
Charkitz
When: 02 Feb 15 11:12
And atleast someone agrees with me re Faulkner!

http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/story/825983.html

Completely agree with him (or he agrees with my posts on here!), Oz chances of winning World Cup much much slimmer without him. I'd go a step further though, if he's out for World Cup then SA should be favourites imo, and Oz down to third favourites behind Kiwis??
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