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The final Test of the 1st part of this Test Match Double Header, what will happen in this one. Well England have added Simon Kerrigan and Chris Woakes, to their squad, to replace the injured pair of Tim Bresnan and Graham Onions. Now I would of thought that neither will play with the out of form Chris Tremlett, taking Bresnans place, but if England play safe, then they will play Chris Woakes, the extra insurance of another bowler, who can bat. For Simon Kerrigan, it is a clear indication, that he will be replacing Monty Panasar, for the tour to Australia and that Woakes may go as well, especially if doing well here. I'm expecting yet another England victory, because Australia, must be at such a low ebb now, after getting into a clear winning position at Durham and being unable to win.
As I stated on the 4th Test thread, winning sides tend to win again and losing sides tend to lose again.
The weather forecast is great at the moment for the whole 5 day and with that another victory for a 4-0 series win is very likely.
As I stated on the 4th Test thread, winning sides tend to win again and losing sides tend to lose again.
The weather forecast is great at the moment for the whole 5 day and with that another victory for a 4-0 series win is very likely.
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England win toss & bat then 4-0,Aussies win toss then bat could well be a close match.
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Could be a heavy shower Sunday, but otherwise clear.
England drifting over the last day. Not sure why. Perhaps some uncertainty over whether KP will be fit. Starc in for Harris. Clarke and Watto now best chums, or maybe some acting for the media. |
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Barrowboy, the toss makes some difference, but as England have managed to chuck that advantage away in most of the Test Matches and still won, basically because Australia, like England play too much rubbish t20 cricket and don't concentrate on the real game, which is Sheffield Shield Cricket or whatever in Australia and England at the moment are just a far better all round side, than Australia. That may change after the end of the Australian series, but cannot really see, how they can turn it around in the next 4/5 months, even in Australia.
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I hope the match lasts into day five as I have tickets and want to see the presentation!
I am expecting a good pitch early on but then taking spin as it wears. Toss is important. If Aussie lose it I will lay them. Will do my best to wait and avoid an ante post bet. I am wondering if the dry conditions bring Anderson back into play. I don't know if it was wet outfields or poor ball management in the last two tests that rendered him ineffective. I noticed the ball in that final session at Durham had two definate sides to it. I remember commenting on it before Bresnan took the all important wicket. I do expect the ball to reverse. |
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if woakes is a test match bowler so am i. has looked well below the required standard in his admittedly limited appearances for england so far
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What's news on Harris? I'm waiting on him for top Aussie bowler and seen a few reports he may not play. Surely there is a big enough gap between 4th and 5th tests and he's been Aussies best bowler and surely they want to try and win a test.
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Some showers in the forecast, but I don't see many overs lost.
Win toss and bat looks to be the winning formula. Watto apparently fit and Starc in for Bird. Draw at 3.65, a bit short, and lay the draw is the start. |
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Given the good forecast and general history of results in the last 10 years, the draw lay is tempting. However, there have been some big 1st innings totals in recent test history and so I wouldn't be surprised if the draw trades odds-on at some point. I'm eagerly awaiting the pitch report and first few overs to see what it looks like for batting.
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The problem with backing England is the pitch could turn out to be a belter. I am more inclined to lay Aus but want to see the pitch and the toss. Day 3 pitch should still be good to bat on so am thinking about a speculative draw bet but both these sides can contrive to look like schoolboys when batting. If we are still on the first innings on Friday then there will be a great trade out.
On another matter I am a dye in the wool traditionalist and am finding trouble with these different start dates. It is just not cricket in my book. God made Thursday the start date for good reason. Some of you young pups might not know this but they even had a rest day on Sundays! |
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Starc and Faulkner! Swann will be most pleased!
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seems odd to start on a wednesday when next monday is a bank holiday
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mafeking 20 Aug 13 14:44
seems odd to start on a wednesday when next monday is a bank holiday The Oval will make a lot more money from corporate boxes, etc when days 1, 2 and 3 are all weekdays. The Aussies have named their XI: Rogers Warner Watson Clarke Smith Haddin Faulkner Starc Siddle Harris Lyon |
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BJ,
Australia do have one world class batsman in Clarke. If he bangs out a big hundred the rest are likely to chip in like at OT. I like Warner too and think he is also capable of a big score on a good fast pitch. Aussie batting line up looks better albeit with a long tail. I just think the Oval is a good batting pitch and if Aus get a good start after winning the toss it leaves the match difficult to win for England and hence the draw or lay of Australia comes into play as I can't imagine the current Aussie side being able to beat an egg at the moment  |
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you're right BJT.
but more profitable to simply back england. no rain = england win, whoever wins the toss. looking forward to another 5 days of your incessent seetheing! although i'm at a meeting tomorrow until 3, i'm sure i can get a rise out of you after tea. |
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Incredible from Australia.
They seem to pick their teams from a hat. Bird plays one match and is dropped. Khawaja dropped after 2 matches. Cowan dropped after 1. Hughes after 2. Including an 80 odd not out. Starc dropped then returns. How not to get the best from players... |
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absolutely. how hard can it be to identify your best 12 or 13 players and stick with them for a while ? it's not like they have a huge amount of talent to choose from. starc's been in out in out in. can't know whether he's coming or going
it's strange seeing how australia have now basically turned into england from the 90s - ludicrous selectorial merry go round and batting collapse after batting collapse |
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draw at 3.65 looks short and worth laying wrote another poster: well its 3.5 now- and I very much agree
weather ok this wont be a draw  |
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England - bank job. Has served me well as a strategy in the past...
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Draw is crazy price at 3.5. Lay away!
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Bell top score and England to win is 10-1 with Billies - there are worse 10-1 shots around
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I vowed not to get involved too early, has served me well. But.............opened-up early, had to..................... LAYED THE DRAW
 .Don't generally like open positions overnight, but no worries here. |
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England West Indies England 158 runs Aug 31-Sep 4, 2000 Test # 1509
England Australia Australia inns & 25 runs Aug 23-27, 2001 Test # 1558 England India drawn Sep 5-9, 2002 Test # 1614 England South Africa England 9 wickets Sep 4-8, 2003 Test # 1659 England West Indies England 10 wickets Aug 19-21, 2004 Test # 1712 England Australia drawn Sep 8-12, 2005 Test # 1763 England Pakistan England Aug 17-21, 2006 Test # 1814 England India drawn Aug 9-13, 2007 Test # 1842 England South Africa England 6 wickets Aug 7-11, 2008 Test # 1885 England Australia England 197 runs Aug 20-23, 2009 Test # 1931 England Pakistan Pakistan 4 wickets Aug 18-21, 2010 Test # 1970 England India England inns & 8 runs Aug 18-22, 2011 Test # 2004 England South Africa South Africa inns & 12 runs Jul 19-23, 2012 Test # 2049 tests since 2000 at the oval. 3 draws in 13 games, one was interrupted by rain and the other the england australia test with ludicrous bad light calls. this will not and cannot be a draw. i'm hoping australia win the toss bat and are out for under 250. |
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Well chaps the ashes have been very good to me so far and although I vowed not to get involved pre off I put up a speculative lay at 3.55 last night and got matched so Im in and cannot believe the draw is 3.45 now. I am trying to behave and protect my bank but also think END are too big at 2.18 and will surely shorten before the toss, as they have in previous tests.
Bit worried about a big first up score and having too much tied up to take advantage of a lower draw price but it can just as easily be 4 down at lunch and youve missed the boat. Last serious betting for me until 3rd sept when Zimba take on the Pakis on the first day of the Harare test, which is all of two weeks away!! Good luck everyone |
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Interesting (baffling) selection from Australia here. Khawaja IMO well out of his depth here at test level, but he was batting in the number 3 spot, so obviously put a lot of faith in him, dropped for a bowler.
We can't get a score on the board, so we bring in another bowler. Isn't a complete mug with the bat, but come on guys. The only thing worse than Australias performance on the field recently is the utter contempt the players are treated with. Very few of them would enter a game not thinking it was their last. Even the bowlers that keep them in touch can't guarantee a spot. I do think Starc coming in is the right move. Need a swing bowler. Bird/Harris/Siddle are all pretty much line and length bowlers so need that variety. Faulkner, from memory, bowls slower balls more often than not and that is how he gets his wickets, so interesting to see if he has anything else to offer. Probably a legitimate all rounder type, but we need specialist batsmen. Have quality bowlers coming out our asses to the point where they can't get a game and we need to bring in bowlers that bat a bit to strengthen the batting lineup? Bizarre. |
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draw is a seriously low price, neither of these sides can bat much more than 110 overs, without rain or bad light the 4 other test were over in 4 days
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I think bringing in Starc and Faulkner will strengthen the batting
!Just to offer our Convict friends a glimmer...I would expect the Tourists to put up a sterner challenge. They have been here for a while and should by now be better accustomed to our pitch preparation. I still don't think their attack can offer a sustained threat and that makes them third favourite for me after the draw! |
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Goooood morning proper sports fans. Would still be laying the draw all day and with ANOTHER new team, Aus surely can't be settled enough to trouble Eng too much?! Clarke will put up his usual one man show. Good (from the Aus POV) to see Khawaja dropped. Looking forward to see what Faulkner has to offer.
Here's the importand stats for you to dissect: Last 5 matches Eng: WDWWW Aus: LDLLL And you can still get 6/5 on the home team!! |
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my prediction.
australia win the toss and bowl. cook 'right come on lads, we're bowling at the tail' australia are bowled out for 201. |
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BAT
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Is Watson going to be fit enough to bowl long spells? Without him their bowling still looks fragile.
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Looking forward to Warner batting could his day on a flat pitch.
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just layed oz cant see them chalking...
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Saturday forecast to be a showery day atm but doesn't look like they'll be too much disruption over the 5 days.
Draw does seem unlikely. Historically, you'd get an end of day 1 score at the Oval of around 300-odd for 4 or 5 & in such a scenario what price the draw at the end of today? SA scored 484 1st innings in 2003 & there was still time for them to lose the test. Eng scored 445 1st innings vs Sri Lanka in 1998 & managed to lose. |
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One thing that is generally for sure JR, the market will always overreact in the early stages of the test...
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Eng 300-4 draw about 3.2
Aus 300-4 draw about 2.3 England are a massive price if they bat first imo. 10-0 they could be 1.9. Not massive downside if they bowl. |
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Will they reach 10/0 tho?? Might be better to wait for 30/3 to back em...
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Might get 2.3 then Butchos
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