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cricnut
18 Aug 13 20:44
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Date Joined: 07 May 03
| Topic/replies: 3,142 | Blogger: cricnut's blog
The final Test of the 1st part of this Test Match Double Header, what will happen in this one. Well England have added Simon Kerrigan and Chris Woakes, to their squad, to replace the injured pair of Tim Bresnan and Graham Onions. Now I would of thought that neither will play with the out of form Chris Tremlett, taking Bresnans place, but if England play safe, then they will play Chris Woakes, the extra insurance of another bowler, who can bat. For Simon Kerrigan, it is a clear indication, that he will be replacing Monty Panasar, for the tour to Australia and that Woakes may go as well, especially if doing well here. I'm expecting yet another England victory, because Australia, must be at such a low ebb now, after getting into a clear winning position at Durham and being unable to win.
As I stated on the 4th Test thread, winning sides tend to win again and losing sides tend to lose again.
The weather forecast is great at the moment for the whole 5 day and with that another victory for a 4-0 series win is very likely.

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By:
BARROWBOY
When: 18 Aug 13 21:40
England win toss & bat then 4-0,Aussies win toss then bat could well be a close match.
By:
pxb
When: 18 Aug 13 21:43
Could be a heavy shower Sunday, but otherwise clear.

England drifting over the last day. Not sure why. Perhaps some uncertainty over whether KP will be fit.

Starc in for Harris.

Clarke and Watto now best chums, or maybe some acting for the media.
By:
cricnut
When: 18 Aug 13 21:52
Barrowboy, the toss makes some difference, but as England have managed to chuck that advantage away in most of the Test Matches and still won, basically because Australia, like England play too much rubbish t20 cricket and don't concentrate on the real game, which is Sheffield Shield Cricket or whatever in Australia and England at the moment are just a far better all round side, than Australia. That may change after the end of the Australian series, but cannot really see, how they can turn it around in the next 4/5 months, even in Australia.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 19 Aug 13 13:31
I hope the match lasts into day five as I have tickets and want to see the presentation!

I am expecting a good pitch early on but then taking spin as it wears.  Toss is important.  If Aussie lose it I will lay them.  Will do my best to wait and avoid an ante post bet.

I am wondering if the dry conditions bring Anderson back into play.  I don't know if it was wet outfields or poor ball management in the last two tests that rendered him ineffective.  I noticed the ball in that final session at Durham had two definate sides to it.  I remember commenting on it before Bresnan took the all important wicket.  I do expect the ball to reverse.
By:
mafeking
When: 19 Aug 13 14:44
if woakes is a test match bowler so am i. has looked well below the required standard in his admittedly limited appearances for england so far
By:
DISCODAVE25
When: 19 Aug 13 16:41
What's news on Harris? I'm waiting on him for top Aussie bowler and seen a few reports he may not play. Surely there is a big enough gap between 4th and 5th tests and he's been Aussies best bowler and surely they want to try and win a test.
By:
pxb
When: 20 Aug 13 07:52
Some showers in the forecast, but I don't see many overs lost.

Win toss and bat looks to be the winning formula.

Watto apparently fit and Starc in for Bird.

Draw at 3.65, a bit short, and lay the draw is the start.
By:
DJSteer
When: 20 Aug 13 10:21
Given the good forecast and general history of results in the last 10 years, the draw lay is tempting. However, there have been some big 1st innings totals in recent test history and so I wouldn't be surprised if the draw trades odds-on at some point. I'm eagerly awaiting the pitch report and first few overs to see what it looks like for batting.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 20 Aug 13 14:19
The problem with backing England is the pitch could turn out to be a belter.  I am more inclined to lay Aus but want to see the pitch and the toss.  Day 3 pitch should still be good to bat on so am thinking about a speculative draw bet but both these sides can contrive to look like schoolboys when batting.  If we are still on the first innings on Friday then there will be a great trade out.

On another matter I am a dye in the wool traditionalist and am finding trouble with these different start dates.  It is just not cricket in my book.  God made Thursday the start date for good reason. Some of you young pups might not know this but they even had a rest day on Sundays!
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Aug 13 14:30
Starc and Faulkner! Swann will be most pleased!
By:
mafeking
When: 20 Aug 13 14:44
seems odd to start on a wednesday when next monday is a bank holiday
By:
BJT
When: 20 Aug 13 15:30

Aug 20, 2013 -- 8:19AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


The problem with backing England is the pitch could turn out to be a belter.  I am more inclined to lay Aus but want to see the pitch and the toss.  Day 3 pitch should still be good to bat on so am thinking about a speculative draw bet but both these sides can contrive to look like schoolboys when batting.  If we are still on the first innings on Friday then there will be a great trade out.On another matter I am a dye in the wool traditionalist and am finding trouble with these different start dates.  It is just not cricket in my book.  God made Thursday the start date for good reason. Some of you young pups might not know this but they even had a rest day on Sundays!


Why would the toss be important?  England are far superior, and Australia can't bat, so Australia should be a lay regardless right?

By:
what do i do now?
When: 20 Aug 13 15:40
mafeking 20 Aug 13 14:44
seems odd to start on a wednesday when next monday is a bank holiday


The Oval will make a lot more money from corporate boxes, etc when days 1, 2 and 3 are all weekdays.

The Aussies have named their XI:

Rogers
Warner
Watson
Clarke
Smith
Haddin
Faulkner
Starc
Siddle
Harris
Lyon
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 20 Aug 13 17:01
BJ,

Australia do have one world class batsman in Clarke.  If he bangs out a big hundred the rest are likely to chip in like at OT.  I like Warner too and think he is also capable of a big score on a good fast pitch.  Aussie batting line up looks better albeit with a long tail.

I just think the Oval is a good batting pitch and if Aus get a good start after winning the toss it leaves the match difficult to win for England and hence the draw or lay of Australia comes into play as I can't imagine the current Aussie side being able to beat an egg at the momentLaugh
By:
steview84
When: 20 Aug 13 17:20
you're right BJT.
but more profitable to simply back england.  no rain = england win, whoever wins the toss.

looking forward to another 5 days of your incessent seetheing!  although i'm at a meeting tomorrow until 3, i'm sure i can get a rise out of you after tea.
By:
Injera
When: 20 Aug 13 18:29
Incredible from Australia.

They seem to pick their teams from a hat.

Bird plays one match and is dropped.

Khawaja dropped after 2 matches.

Cowan dropped after 1. Hughes after 2. Including an 80 odd not out.

Starc dropped then returns.

How not to get the best from players...
By:
mafeking
When: 20 Aug 13 20:01
absolutely. how hard can it be to identify your best 12 or 13 players and stick with them for a while ? it's not like they have a huge amount of talent to choose from. starc's been in out in out in. can't know whether he's coming or going

it's strange seeing how australia have now basically turned into england from the 90s - ludicrous selectorial merry go round and batting collapse after batting collapse
By:
lmfao
When: 20 Aug 13 20:16
draw at 3.65 looks short and worth laying wrote another poster: well its 3.5 now- and I very much agree

weather ok

this wont be a draw Cool
By:
Butchos123
When: 20 Aug 13 22:08
England - bank job. Has served me well as a strategy in the past...
By:
nigelpm1
When: 20 Aug 13 23:12
Draw is crazy price at 3.5.  Lay away!
By:
toffee87
When: 20 Aug 13 23:30
Bell top score and England to win is 10-1 with Billies - there are worse 10-1 shots around
By:
Wallflower
When: 20 Aug 13 23:36
I vowed not to get involved too early, has served me well.  But.............opened-up early, had to..................... LAYED THE DRAWHappy.

Don't generally like open positions overnight, but no worries here.
By:
steview84
When: 21 Aug 13 00:08
England    West Indies    England    158 runs    Aug 31-Sep 4, 2000    Test # 1509
England    Australia    Australia    inns & 25 runs    Aug 23-27, 2001    Test # 1558
England    India    drawn        Sep 5-9, 2002    Test # 1614
England    South Africa    England    9 wickets    Sep 4-8, 2003    Test # 1659
England    West Indies    England    10 wickets    Aug 19-21, 2004    Test # 1712
England    Australia    drawn        Sep 8-12, 2005    Test # 1763
England    Pakistan    England        Aug 17-21, 2006    Test # 1814
England    India    drawn        Aug 9-13, 2007    Test # 1842
England    South Africa    England    6 wickets    Aug 7-11, 2008    Test # 1885
England    Australia    England    197 runs    Aug 20-23, 2009    Test # 1931
England    Pakistan    Pakistan    4 wickets    Aug 18-21, 2010    Test # 1970
England    India    England    inns & 8 runs    Aug 18-22, 2011    Test # 2004
England    South Africa    South Africa    inns & 12 runs    Jul 19-23, 2012    Test # 2049

tests since 2000 at the oval.

3 draws in 13 games, one was interrupted by rain and the other the england australia test with ludicrous bad light calls.

this will not and cannot be a draw.

i'm hoping australia win the toss bat and are out for under 250.
By:
stickon
When: 21 Aug 13 01:02
Well chaps the ashes have been very good to me so far and although I vowed not to get involved pre off I put up a speculative lay at 3.55 last night and got matched so Im in and cannot believe the draw is 3.45 now. I am trying to behave and protect my bank but also think END are too big at 2.18 and will surely shorten before the toss, as they have in previous tests.

Bit worried about a big first up score and having too much tied up to take advantage of a lower draw price but it can just as easily be 4 down at lunch and youve missed the boat.



Last serious betting for me until 3rd sept when Zimba take on the Pakis on the first day of the Harare test, which is all of two weeks away!!

Good luck everyone
By:
BJT
When: 21 Aug 13 04:03

Aug 20, 2013 -- 6:08PM, steview84 wrote:


England    West Indies    England    158 runs    Aug 31-Sep 4, 2000    Test # 1509England    Australia    Australia    inns & 25 runs    Aug 23-27, 2001    Test # 1558England    India    drawn        Sep 5-9, 2002    Test # 1614England    South Africa    England    9 wickets    Sep 4-8, 2003    Test # 1659England    West Indies    England    10 wickets    Aug 19-21, 2004    Test # 1712England    Australia    drawn        Sep 8-12, 2005    Test # 1763England    Pakistan    England        Aug 17-21, 2006    Test # 1814England    India    drawn        Aug 9-13, 2007    Test # 1842England    South Africa    England    6 wickets    Aug 7-11, 2008    Test # 1885England    Australia    England    197 runs    Aug 20-23, 2009    Test # 1931England    Pakistan    Pakistan    4 wickets    Aug 18-21, 2010    Test # 1970England    India    England    inns & 8 runs    Aug 18-22, 2011    Test # 2004England    South Africa    South Africa    inns & 12 runs    Jul 19-23, 2012    Test # 2049tests since 2000 at the oval.3 draws in 13 games, one was interrupted by rain and the other the england australia test with ludicrous bad light calls.this will not and cannot be a draw.i'm hoping australia win the toss bat and are out for under 250.


3/13 and it can't be a draw?  You will also notice 3/13 games were won by over an innings.  Suggests to me (without looking too deep) that big scores possible and 1 team just didn't show up.  Any of those games could easily have been dragged out for a draw without a collapse.

Just hoping for Australia to be trading odds on for most of the test, because the 1 guarantee in that scenario is we won't hear a peep from you.

By:
BJT
When: 21 Aug 13 04:25
Interesting (baffling) selection from Australia here. Khawaja IMO well out of his depth here at test level, but he was batting in the number 3 spot, so obviously put a lot of faith in him, dropped for a bowler.
We can't get a score on the board, so we bring in another bowler.  Isn't a complete mug with the bat, but come on guys.  The only thing worse than Australias performance on the field recently is the utter contempt the players are treated with.  Very few of them would enter a game not thinking it was their last.  Even the bowlers that keep them in touch can't guarantee a spot.

I do think Starc coming in is the right move.  Need a swing bowler.  Bird/Harris/Siddle are all pretty much line and length bowlers so need that variety.  Faulkner, from memory, bowls slower balls more often than not and that is how he gets his wickets, so interesting to see if he has anything else to offer.  Probably a legitimate all rounder type, but we need specialist batsmen.  Have quality bowlers coming out our asses to the point where they can't get a game and we need to bring in bowlers that bat a bit to strengthen the batting lineup? 

Bizarre.
By:
logroller
When: 21 Aug 13 05:56
draw is a seriously low price, neither of these sides can bat much more than 110 overs, without rain or bad light the 4 other test were over in 4 days
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 21 Aug 13 07:41
I think bringing in Starc and Faulkner will strengthen the battingLaugh!

Just to offer our Convict friends a glimmer...I would expect the Tourists to put up a sterner challenge.  They have been here for a while and should by now be better accustomed to our pitch preparation.  I still don't think their attack can offer a sustained threat and that makes them third favourite for me after the draw!
By:
Butchos123
When: 21 Aug 13 08:05
Goooood morning proper sports fans. Would still be laying the draw all day and with ANOTHER new team, Aus surely can't be settled enough to trouble Eng too much?! Clarke will put up his usual one man show. Good (from the Aus POV) to see Khawaja dropped. Looking forward to see what Faulkner has to offer.

Here's the importand stats for you to dissect:

Last 5 matches
Eng: WDWWW
Aus: LDLLL

And you can still get 6/5 on the home team!!
By:
steview84
When: 21 Aug 13 08:23
my prediction.

australia win the toss and bowl.

cook 'right come on lads, we're bowling at the tail'

australia are bowled out for 201.
By:
steview84
When: 21 Aug 13 08:26
BAT CryCryCryCry
By:
sageform
When: 21 Aug 13 08:27
Is Watson going to be fit enough to bowl long spells? Without him their bowling still looks fragile.
By:
pxb
When: 21 Aug 13 08:27
Looking forward to Warner batting could his day on a flat pitch.
By:
sonofshinner
When: 21 Aug 13 08:30
just layed oz cant see them chalking...
By:
johnnyrant
When: 21 Aug 13 09:31
Saturday forecast to be a showery day atm but doesn't look like they'll be too much disruption over the 5 days.

Draw does seem unlikely. Historically, you'd get an end of day 1 score at the Oval of around 300-odd for 4 or 5 & in such a scenario what price the draw at the end of today?

SA scored 484 1st innings in 2003 & there was still time for them to lose the test. Eng scored 445 1st innings vs Sri Lanka in 1998 & managed to lose.
By:
Butchos123
When: 21 Aug 13 09:38
One thing that is generally for sure JR, the market will always overreact in the early stages of the test...
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 21 Aug 13 09:39
Eng 300-4 draw about 3.2
Aus 300-4 draw about 2.3

England are a massive price if they bat first imo. 10-0 they could be 1.9. Not massive downside if they bowl.
By:
Butchos123
When: 21 Aug 13 09:42
Will they reach 10/0 tho?? Might be better to wait for 30/3 to back em... Wink
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 21 Aug 13 09:43
Might get 2.3 then Butchos Wink
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