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steview84
30 Jul 13 00:15
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Date Joined: 06 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 7,311 | Blogger: steview84's blog
Still can't make my mind up on how to begin with this one.

Australia due to win a toss, with the forum of their batsmen the draw could be out to 20/1 after day one.

Weather forecasts have changed rapidly over the last week from rain on 3/5 of the days to now 1/5, i'm sure it will change again.

I have to say that nigelpm1 has been the best judge of rain effecting cricket on the forum, and he believes that the rain won't make much of a difference.

Hopefully we get another weather scare and the price on England gets to around 2.1 - 2.2.

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By:
pxb
When: 30 Jul 13 06:23
Lay the draw. Overs lost to weather now looks unlikely, as brief interuptions can be made up.

My main concern is Aus bat first under sunny skies on a tame wicket and put up a decent 1st inns total, 350+.
By:
steview84
When: 30 Jul 13 10:02

Jul 30, 2013 -- 6:23AM, pxb wrote:


Lay the draw. Overs lost to weather now looks unlikely, as brief interuptions can be made up.My main concern is Aus bat first under sunny skies on a tame wicket and put up a decent 1st inns total, 350+.


australia to score over 350 at old trafford, can't see it.

By:
anyother
When: 30 Jul 13 16:26
nice thread title
like the old daysLove
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 30 Jul 13 16:33
Neat, but certainly needs a semi-colon Plain
By:
anyother
When: 30 Jul 13 16:39
Cool
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Jul 13 17:05
I'm looking for an angle here but things seem pretty straight.

England have made Aussie their bitch for the summer by the looks of it.

Having said that they contrived to nearly lose the first test, should have been batted England out of the win in the second but Aus managed to bat a pitiful 50 something overs in the first innings, which, could have put the draw into contention.

Despite this I would be prepared to lay England ( currently 1.85 ) should Aus bat first.  I am not saying England will not prevail but Aus might be able to post a total.  This may be an unlikely scenario but the odds fluctuation in the event could result in a nice green.

I have to say I was on 50% all round green before Twatto Watto got himself lbw in the first innings.  Had he survived for a few overs after the interval I would have had a 100& all round green and my work would have been done by tea on Day 2.  Obviously if my aunty had balls she'd be my uncle but these things can, do and nearly happen.

Not looking at the weather forecast till Thursday morning, not betting till the toss this time and will try and follow my own advice for once and see what happens in the game before putting money down!
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Jul 13 17:11
Rewrite in semi English...apologies


I'm looking for an angle here but things seem pretty straight.

England have made Aussie their bitch for the summer by the looks of it.

Having said that they contrived to nearly lose the first test, should have been batted out of the win in the second but Aus managed to bat a pitiful 50 something overs in the first innings, which, should they have batted for 100 odds over could have put the draw into contention.

Despite this I would be prepared to lay England ( currently 1.85 ) should Aus bat first.  I am not saying England will not prevail but Aus might be able to post a total.  This may be an unlikely scenario but the odds fluctuation in the event could result in a nice green.

I have to say I was on 50% all round green before Twatto Watto got himself lbw in the first innings.  Had he survived for a few overs after the interval I would have had a 100% all round green and my work would have been done by tea on Day 2.  Obviously if my aunty had balls she'd be my uncle but these things can, do and nearly happen.

Not looking at the weather forecast till Thursday morning, not betting till the toss this time and will try and follow my own advice for once and see what happens in the game before putting money down!
By:
anyother
When: 30 Jul 13 17:28
nice username Cool
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Jul 13 17:44
Who me?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-f5pfBgpNE
By:
Butchos123
When: 30 Jul 13 17:46
I've seen nothing to tell me anything other than a big Eng bet is necessary here.
By:
anyother
When: 30 Jul 13 17:50
Joined: 25 Dec 11 | Topic/replies: 2,096 | Blogger: Whisperingdeath's blog
Who me?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-f5pfBgpNE
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probably the most frightening over ever bowled!!
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Jul 13 17:57
Mate it makes me cry just watching it!


I laugh and laugh and laugh and then I start to cry because my stomach hurts so much.

That Brian Close was one tough hombre.  For him to rub it, man it must have like like a mutha!
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Jul 13 17:59
Butchos

you are probably right but will still wait for the toss and teams.  I think Aus will have more punch this time but then probably still a bit too limp!
By:
Butchos123
When: 30 Jul 13 18:54
Well WD, I guess the Aussies are like the Germans in football... but when you are relying on Warner to dig you out of a hole, it ain't good. When you 'have no choice' but to rejig your team, it really is starting to smack of desperation. Agreed, I'll wait for the weather,but I think that's why Eng have come in from 2.1ish to 1.85ish, so a relatively dry 5(4?!) days appear to be factored in already. As for the toss, yes it might affect things, and your analysis above might be right, but then again they might lose an opener quickly and you might end of chasing your tail all day. I don't think it'll affect the end result.
By:
JPG
When: 30 Jul 13 20:21
Id agree with that Bucthos.

With England around 1.84 and the draw over 3.6, Id say that has nothing more then the odd, relatively brief, weather interruption priced in.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Jul 13 20:31
Butch,

I think England started at around 1.85 before the weather forecasts were too far away to be considered then over the last couple of days it went out to evens.

I am not relying on Warner although I think he has changed his game for test cricket.  I made a bad mistake last time in thinking, not hoping, Australia could bat in excess of 90 overs on a decent enough Lords wicket without cloud and then I would have closed my liability!  That is what thinking can do to you!  They managed just over 50 and the game was lost in farcical circumstances with the last ball before lunch being the catalyst to a comedy of errors...Rogers lbw to a full bunger missing, given out and not reviewed after Watto's buggery and then Khawaja losing his head and Agar running himself out.  That doesn't even account for the poor shots played by  some of the other, which, didn't count as comedy just merely amusing.

Aus do have  a couple of decent bowlers and now probably the correct spinner that will give them a chance batting first.  If England bat first I would expect them to win comfortably.  I guess I don't see the game going to a draw given what we have heard of the pitch.  Will listen to Geoffrey and see what he says about the pitch. 

Sphincter still sore from last game so waiting to see this time round looking for easy money banker bet except I don't get banker bonuses!
By:
pxb
When: 30 Jul 13 21:35
Appears Warner is in, but may not open. Personally. I'd push Watto to 3. Agar now injury free, so we will see his stuff.

Batting first would appear to be a big advantage, although a fair amount of cloud and high humidity Thursday.

Still sticking with my earlier assessment, no draw unless Australia bat first and make 350+.

My other prediction is if Aus lose, Clarke will go home injured.
By:
Butchos123
When: 30 Jul 13 23:51
I'm sure you know better than to rely on Warner, WD, I meant the Aus team!! Anyway, I'm working all day tomorrow. Will keep half an eye on the weather, but otherwise sitting tight til Thurs AM. Haven't yet taken a position financially, although unless anything changes, safe to say it's Eng for me.
By:
BJT
When: 31 Jul 13 05:32
With any game of cricket you really need to sit and wait til the game starts.  The commentators don't have a clue, last game they were calling 450 pitch while another was saying 300 would be good.

The toss is enough to move the market, and then a swinging ball will move it also.

If you look at the first 2 tests, it is more likely England win if Aus bat first than anything, as they will waste less time out in the middle scoring unneeded runs.

The obvious play will be to back England when they are batting.  It doesn't really matter if they make a stack of runs, or get bowled out cheaply, because the market will straight up compare Aus expected runs with what England have done.  If Eng bowled out for 150, it will assume monster bowling pitch that Aus won't pass 100 on.

Apart from that, the only time England don't start too short, is when they are playing India.  England are always a value lay.  Really can't see them not trading at 2.50 at the very least at some point in the test.
Long term trade will be lay England.  Game trades will be to back them on a wicket when they are batting, looking to get out before the next wicket, when it all starts again.
Same strategy with Aus, except would only back on a wicket once somebody shows they have the mindset to be out in the middle and would need to get out much quicker.
By:
pxb
When: 31 Jul 13 08:11
Market shrugging off  the forecast rain.
By:
JustWinBaby
When: 31 Jul 13 12:40
That is because England only need 4 days to beat Australia
By:
The Dragon
When: 31 Jul 13 16:07
cant see anything but an england win here. i have 4 tickets for sat so taking the family cant wait. hope rain stays away
By:
Plechy
When: 31 Jul 13 17:39
Wise words here from BJT: 'If you look at the first 2 tests, it is more likely England win if Aus bat first than anything, as they will waste less time out in the middle scoring unneeded runs'.
-------------------------------------

For me, England are currently too short to back, so will wait until just before they start tomorrow and try and weigh up what effect the weather, team selection and toss could possibly have.

Hopefully, as happened in the last Test, England lose a few early wickets and then I'll back them big-time.

Aussies are second best in EVERY department: batting, bowling, fielding, w/keeper, spin, swing, reverse swing and team spirit - they were inferior before the series began. Based on recent form, I couldn't back them at any price. Warner, if included, is not the man to hang around for a day, a la Trott.

If talk of a bouncy pitch proves correct, it will only assist England seamers and Swann. Cloud cover will be like Xmas come early for Anderson.

Even with a sprinkling of showers and maybe even one completely lost session, still see the game ending no later than morning of the 5th day, but probably on the afternoon of the 4th.

Just waiting to back England with half my bank.
By:
TwoTonTed
When: 31 Jul 13 22:03
wtf are peeps thinking these 2 sides can contrive a draw even with 80+ overs lost in normal time (which is a worst case imo), some of which can be made up.  Dry pitch, swing, reverse, Oz dont wanna be here, 2-0 down, I could go on......Draw 2nd fav, ROFLLES......... my book reads 1.4 Eng, Aus 2.9, Draw whateveryouwant
By:
spassky
When: 31 Jul 13 22:11
anyother   
Date Joined:   03 Jun 03 
Add contact    30 Jul 13 16:26   

nice thread title
like the old days Love


Asparagus Man   
   30 Jul 13 16:33   

Neat, but certainly needs a semi-colon Happy


Asparagus, you made an old man very proud when I read that post; such happy days ..., so long ago Cool

spassky
king of the semi-colon
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 31 Jul 13 22:13
just a note on the dry pitch...if the outfield is wet  will they be able to get the ball to reverse?  I think not.  Anybody know how the outfield here dries out?  Have they relaid the outfield with a lot of sand underneath?
By:
TwoTonTed
When: 31 Jul 13 22:16
spassky - behaveSilly

decent point about the outfield.  I believe they've pretty much done the lot, though needs confirmation. Deck is reported as very dry which is bound to help scuff the old chesnut
By:
judorick
When: 31 Jul 13 22:22
woke up this morning, Wednesday, thought the test was on (thought it was Thursday), extreme gloom at waiting another 24 hours

England win by the way
By:
pxb
When: 31 Jul 13 22:22
Likely team: Shane Watson, Chris Rogers, Usman Khawaja, Michael Clarke (c), Steve Smith/Phil Hughes, David Warner, Brad Haddin, Peter Siddle, Mitchell Starc, Ryan Harris, Nathan Lyon.
By:
judorick
When: 31 Jul 13 23:22
not a bad outfit if they can perform as a unit

good game on I reckon, hope it stays dry
By:
mafeking
When: 31 Jul 13 23:37
stating the obvious it's the lack of 100s that's killing them. clarke aside only around 10 between the other 6 of the top 7. england's top 7 have more than 80
By:
stickon
When: 01 Aug 13 00:35
I thougth about the wet outfield earlier and although Im pretty certain it does drain well it might make reverse a bit less of a threat.
Ive backed the draw at 3.9 with a view to a trade before the off around 3.5 or a bit below. The draw seems to habitually shorten before the off and the weather forecast for Friday wont do anything to discourage it
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 01 Aug 13 04:56
Very interesting with the dry pitch.

Dry Thursday and the game unfolds, possible / likely wet outfields on Friday, Saturday and Monday ( BBC Weather ).

I might be inclined to find a place for the second spinner, certainly Aus should play a joker and include Lyon, Smith and maybe Agar?  Starc is the reverse bowler for Aus? but I think most want to see Bird.  I'd take a chance and play with two quicks and Watson to fill in.

I can't envisage how the game will pan out except England are stronger in all departments.  The draw play is interesting and the reverse swing V spin aspect is intriguing.

Good luck Stickon.  If you have the cajones I think you might be on to a good thing with a bit of contrary draw backing but don't be afriad to keep jumping out of it.  I have a feeling it will be the yoyo bet.
By:
pxb
When: 01 Aug 13 07:29
Winning the toss will be big. Batting day 1 should be good, then on and off for showers rest of the match, with day 5 looking iffy to get more than half overs in.
By:
NOW WE KNOW
When: 01 Aug 13 07:46
Keeping it simple here, lay Australia as England are much better at cricket at the moment.
By:
Captain Wurzel
When: 01 Aug 13 08:17
High humidity, warm and overcast in Manchester this morning pxb - will be swing around. Whoever wins the toss will bat - but

it might be difficult in the first session.
By:
pxb
When: 01 Aug 13 08:22
Well, if batting isn't good day 1, I doubt it will get better.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 01 Aug 13 09:00
Don't over-think this, the Aussies are ****.
By:
d13phe
When: 01 Aug 13 09:10
interesting toss.

pitch has been covered all week but going to be a scorcher today and very humid.

Reckon the first couple of hours could see some serious movement.   it feels like a swing bowling day.
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