Cricket
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Current forecast is rain on 4 of 5 days. Too early to tell if just showers or more persistent rain. I expect a fair amount of volatility over the next week. My current estimate is we lose at least 1 session, and possibly rather more.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 162
|
By:
And how do you come to that estimate? Just out of interest. Given that the test is 9 days away.
Also, could you be more specific, and advise which session we will lose? If its sun morning that will be a right touch as im out sat night |
|
By:
A number of 14 day forecasts available. I tend to reply on netweather.tv as they give % confidence. I meant 1 session in total, as I expect mostly just showers so not too many overs lost and some time can be made up. Currently Thurs and Mon look the most problematic. Forecasts this far out almost certain to change.
|
|
By:
Latest forecast has heavy rain from some time Sat pm thru to early Sun.
|
|
By:
Too early to call anything but a preemptive lay of England if you have enough dough! Can always buy it back. Can't really see the point in doing much as the way Australia are batting England will only need 9 sessions to wrap this one up too! Not bitter or twisted at losing my first test win on this shower whom I expected to bat more than two and a bit sessions last up
 |
|
By:
Looking for opportunities to lay the draw
|
|
By:
@nigelpm1, will be doing the same, if it goes below 9/4 and we are only forecast to lose one session then I think it's a great lay. Otherwise I will just back Eng!
|
|
By:
I doubt that Australia are capable of winning a weather shortened match. A lay of Australia is probably the safest bet but I like more bang for my bucks so will be looking to back England if their odds go out due to weather concerns. 5/4 would do for a start, 6/4 would be very nice indeed. Holding fire for now and watching how events unfold.
|
|
By:
I doubt that Australia are capable of winning a weather shortened match. A lay of Australia is probably the safest bet but I like more bang for my bucks so will be looking to back England if their odds go out due to weather concerns. 5/4 would do for a start, 6/4 would be very nice indeed. Holding fire for now and watching how events unfold.
|
|
By:
just backed the draw @3.35, it looks too high to me based on the forecast
|
|
By:
this is the best thread iv ever read.... making assumptions on UK weather nearly 2 weeks away
|
|
By:
got to admit its got me smiling...154k matched already on the draw which I think is incredible...lots of rain could be draw...not a lot of rain ENG win
the forecast is very mixed but we are over a week away if you cant keep out of the market just lay Oz and get the draw on your side personally im keeping my powder dry for now |
|
By:
1st 2 tests with no rain forecast England were between 2 and 2.1 before each match. Now with rain forecast they are 1.9?
 |
|
By:
there will be very little rain, its not even a consideration for me.
wait until closer to the off aston and you'll get above evens. |
|
By:
Forecasts of rain, a week away, long term forecasts are always wrong somewhere, why get involved at all, at this stage.
|
|
By:
Manchester is notorious for rain. why so confident it wont steview?
|
|
By:
i'm not now aston.
http://www.weather-wherever.co.uk/united-kingdom/manchester_v19012/12-day-weather/ i looked at a different site and it showed only showers on one day. this one is usually a lot more accurate and shows some severe weather. still can't back the draw with australia batting, they're bound to win a toss soon and bat, so it could be a one innings job for england. may be wise to sit out the next test. |
|
By:
The draw has shortened from 3.3 to 2.96 in last 12 hours
|
|
By:
Don't forget, if you are looking at the weather & seeing clouds on the horizon, these are optimum conditions for swing bowling, so even if we have a few weather interruptions wickets are likely to fall quickly if the first 2 tests are any kind of barometer. I personally find it hard to see Australia scoring over 300 in this series in any 1 innings, even in the most batter friendly conditions, like you usually see at the Oval for instance.
|
|
By:
Way too early to take a position either way IMO.
|
|
By:
Australia will start with a clean slate and should be more competitive at Old Trafford in my opinion. After the Lords whitewash they are massive overs at 6/1 and I will be backing that our laying England
|
|
By:
Personally feel Aus have done nothing that suggests they can win. Might take a punt on the weather at this point, but even at 6/1 you couldn't make me back the Aussies. It's a punting system that has paid good dividends last couple of matches!
|
|
By:
Thurs weather forecast has got worse. Looks like we will lose as much as 2 sessions.
|
|
By:
come on pxb its Saturday ffs, you might as well read your tea leaves as to what the weather will be , and look at accu weather they've got thursday dry as a bone
|
|
By:
Had a nibble at England at just over evens. Still hoping for 6/4 at some stage.
|
|
By:
Forecast changes move the market. The draw has gone from 3.3 to sub 2.7 and back to 3.3 in 2 days. Money to be made trading those kinds of moves.
|
|
By:
And back to 3 again pxb
There is money to be made but its more or less pure heads or tails...unless you produce weather forecasts of course which I dont |
|
By:
fwiw the way I see it is during the day the price drifts as with only a few showers around it is clearly too low, ie by last night it was 3.3 - then during the night when the Asian markets are alive they see the rain and lump it back it in eg 2.88 this morning , that's the way i'm trading it for the next couple of days
|
|
By:
Can't see rain having much of an impact.
|
|
By:
no I agree nigel the draw price at 2.72 makes no sense to me , I'm laying, the rain looks like showers only , time can be made up this time off year, and it is predicted v cloudy & humid on Thursday / Friday , ball could be swinging around
|
|
By:
I wanna see Monty playing, any chance?
|
|
By:
Friday and Saturday, lunch onwards looking in danger of no play, massive change from 12 hours ago and will no doubt change 10 times more
|
|
By:
would have to be an absolute raging bunsen for them to consider monty. joe root more than useful as a 2nd spinner and oz so inept against the anything that moves off the straight anyone who can vaguely spin a top would fancy their chances of cleaning them up
|
|
By:
Currently forecast looks pretty good. Any lost time unlikely to affect the result. Spinning track as well. I'd say over on day 4.
|
|
By:
Draw price gone exponential. People don't believe that it rains in Manchester anymore.
We shall see. |
|
By:
i'm going to open up with a bet on the draw at 3.35 and hope for a trade when the first band of rain hits.
|
|
By:
basically very little chance of draw unless we lose at least 2 sessions and that seems unlikely right now. Could of course change
|
|
By:
nigelpm1, what do you think the draw price would be if there were no weather issues?
you sound like it would be higher than @4.5 |
|
By:
Over 4 for sure, but weather uncertainty always reduces the draw significantly.
|
|
By:
I havent got stuck in to this yet, I think the draw price is too high given the dodgy forecast but we are all still just betting on the weather
Pre Off the first test draw price did touch 4 but was 3.15 pre toss. 2nd test dont think higher than 3.65 early doors and 3.15 pre toss. Looking at all 5 weather forecast ive got loaded could we loose 2 sessions...a distinct possibility at the moment |