Cricket
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
With so much to digest and after a great match at Trent Bridge, we go on to the 2nd Test Match at Lords starting this coming Thursday.
Another great match in prospect, I expect England will go with the same side, despite the fact that I think, Bressnan ought to replace Finn. I also expect Australia to go in with the same side as well.
Hopefully the cricket, will be slightly more fast moving, from a batting point of view and it usually is at the home of Cricket.
Another great match in prospect, I expect England will go with the same side, despite the fact that I think, Bressnan ought to replace Finn. I also expect Australia to go in with the same side as well.
Hopefully the cricket, will be slightly more fast moving, from a batting point of view and it usually is at the home of Cricket.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,716
|
By:
It will be interesting, think Finn/Bresnan or Onions is a 50-50 call. If it's a typical Lords deck they'll probably keep Finn, but wouldn't be surprised if it's as dry as this one, if they pick one of the other two. In any event if Bres/Onions don't play, hope they can find some red ball cricket to play elsewhere. Otherwise there's a risk of them getting rusty.
Would have thought that Aus will drop Cowan, doesn't strike as a Lehmann style player and he looked horribly out of form in this game. No excuse for the shot he played just before tea yesterday, to a part time bowler as well. |
|
By:
They need to find room for Lyon too imho. Drooping Cowan will not deplete the batting! Give some of the others more responsibility. Warner needs to come back asap as he will be a good counter attacker and blunter. If there is not much happening with the ball the England attack needs to be put under pressure from a convict point of view.
I am thinking about an ante post lay of England as near evens as possible. Lords is lush, no netting wickets on the out field and fewer cut and used strips on the square....maybe less reverse or will not reverse from the 12th over giving the batsmen more time to play themselves in. |
|
By:
I think the Draw will trade low at some point, so a lay of either side, is a good starting point and as England will be the shorter price, then that is a sensible strategy WD
|
|
By:
Bresnan should replace Finn. And not just for his bowling, the England tail is looking weaker and weaker lately..
|
|
By:
Finn looked shot to bits today. Body language was awful - it would be a massive leap of faith to pick him at Lords.
Bresnan more reliable and the most likely replacement. |
|
By:
Yes Cric,
Unfortunately that was my strategy for the 1st test but it did not come off due to inept batting and and excellent reverse from both sides. I played a get out of jail card yesterday and came good. I think Lords ahould bat fantastically well for the first 3 days. Thinking about backing the draw ante post too in addition to laying England but would be better just seeing who wins the toss. I think the teams are reasonably evenly matched. England have the edge though. |
|
By:
Last 10 tests only 1 has been drawn that too against SL where about a day was washed off. So i think i ll be laying draw but to begin with i ll lay the team which would be batting first before i get a good lay at draw. Lets see how it goes.
|
|
By:
Big toss this one as well - Aus will be really keen to bat, especially to give England's bowlers a quick turnaround - Anderson bowled 50 overs this test.
|
|
By:
Laying the draw seems the best opening bet for me. The excellent Bell innings at Trent Bridge and Trott's almost unique staying power aside, the proliferation of T20 games worldwide has diluted the ability of an ever-increasing number of batsmen to concentrate at the crease for very long periods, so fewer Tests are going the full distance. With the heatwave apparently set to continue, there is no adverse weather threat either.
Alternatively, it's a small back of England from the start and let's see what unfolds over days on and two. England can only play better that they did in the first Test, but can Australia bat better as a team. Would be asking far too much for Agar to repeat his heroics this time. After his dreadful couple of overs today, on the back of a relatively poor run of form, and given the sarcastic jeering he received from the Nottingham crowd while fielding poorly, which will only have further damaged his confidence, Finn will surely be replaced by Bresnan. I wouldn't be surprised to see Warner back in at the expense of Cowans. |
|
By:
While there has only been one recent draw at Lords, prior to that there were (I think) 7 draws in a row. It will very much depend on the pitch and how much it favours the seamers and then the spinners days 4 and 5. Can see both teams improving their batting and this going to day 5, which brings the draw into play.
Agar looked good before he injured his finger and might be worth a punt as top wicket taker. |
|
By:
Lords is a good batting pitch. Aussie usually does well at Lords. Weather will be fine for whole test. The outfield is lush. I have a strong feeling for the draw here. The batting must come good at some time in the series, either side! The Notts pitch was not that bad but there were demons in the batters mind probably from the look of it and " expert " talk how it would break up. It was slow that's all.
I guess a lot will depend on the toss and how the batting side fares first up. I just feel there could be a big advantage into backing draw in advance ( which I haven't done yet ). A good start and the draw will plummet. If Aus win the toss it could be double bubble as England would move out and Aus would come in ( a lay of Aus to cover the lay of England ) obviously should Aus bat well. I took an advance lay on England, which, this time I will buy back if England bat first! Of course the sensible option would be to wait until tea as I said prior to the first Test. Unfortunately I didn't take my own advice! |
|
By:
i am surprised the draw is as big as 3.6 currently,Lords test match pitches are usually good for batting when the sun is out and dont usually deteriorate ,Weather appears set fair with little chance of swinging conditions,the Aus tail have shown that they have the ability to bat long and Rogers looks solid, i would expect the price to be around 3 by start of play and could easily go low in play, probably wont be a draw but may look like one and price trade sub 2.0
but then i would say all this having backed at 3.3 yesterday ! |
|
By:
WD, while the draw back to lay looks good on paper, I've tried it a number of times with little success. If wickets fall day 1, you are behind the 8 ball and its difficult to get back.
|
|
By:
Having said that, I've decided to give it another try.
|
|
By:
where's monty gone? was great in india and has never been seen again.
the aussies also showed in india they were awful against spin and given this weather / possible state of pitch, id atleast have him in the squad. people say ...its abit of a lottery preparing spining pitches, i cant have that given england have potentially 2 world class spinners and aus...well....ummm....dont. if you could pick both warne and muruli in your side and then prepare a raging turner...would it be a lottery? ok, swann / monty are a division behind those behind but their a few leagues infront of agar/lyon. |
|
By:
pxb,
I nearly came undone again in the first test with this tictac. Had I held back I would have made big bucks instead of having to spend big bucks to make a modest return. I think the key to it is admitting to a mistake or change of situation. I thought Notts would provide a result but would bat well for at least a couple of days. I think the pitch was ok but batsmen were poor. I gave up and cashed out prematurely when Agar was out stumped! ( I layed England at even and cashed out at 1.3 buyback as well as the draw! ) Lords is a good pitch and doesn't deteriorate much. I doubt the reverse will be as effective and as early as 12 overs and conventional swing is likely to be limited in sunny conditions. This brings Aussie and our flat tracks bullies into the equation imho. So anyway. I have layed England and started buying the draw but this time will be more active in making corrections as the game develops. I don't expect as many flip flops. I will probably lay the side batting second. I'll take a flyer at the toss and follow it up if there is an early wicket but I really expect something more of a Test Match this time. Cowan has to go. I would like to see a space for Lyon. Finn will probably go to but he is a wicket taker in my book where as Bresnan is the cart horse used to give the others a rest so this would aid my draw position in my view. Obviously need to wait for the teams, toss and weather forecast but I like to go with my gut and then justify it with reason and I think the reasoning is sound ( at the moment anyway! ) I haven't lost in 4 India and 3 NZ winter Tests. I flip flopped my original bets in most of those India Tests! |
|
By:
WD, as an Aussie I can't trade inplay online, so have to predict on a daily basis. Aus are out of season, so I expected a slow Aus start, and would have been an Eng cruise if not for Agar. Sunny skies and a benign Lords pitch first up makes a draw back to lay attractive, so now I have decided, I'm into it for decent amounts.
Thanks for the tip. |
|
By:
backed the draw to trade later. Can't believe it won't drop well below 3.6 at some point
|
|
By:
pxb,
I am not a Techie, in fact I am a bit old school luddite. There is a programme called Expat Shield that allows Poms to watch British Internet TV in darkest Africa. When I go to America I cannot get betfair but one of my buddies told me I could set up a proxy server or something. I am a bit dumb at this sort of thing but I am also investigating something called http://www.purevpn.com basically it tricks the internet in America or wherever to believing I am in England so hopefully that will enable me to trade online, which, obviously I wouldn't do if it was breaking the law in America so I would restrict myself to watching Eastbenders or something. But you get my point. If you want to trade online it would be worth your while to investigate it or speak to someone with the right sort of intelligence. Good luck with your bet. I am buying in to the draw ante post too. If you talk the talk you gotta walk the walk! |
|
By:
Cowan will be left out and Huges will move to 3 to get him away from Swan as long as possible, Kawaja ( not sure if that's right spelling ) will come in to the team, I think he should come in at 4 and move Clarke back to 5 where he can take care of Swan
|
|
By:
Finns action look suspect at some times last night, has this been a problem before?
|
|
By:
Shame Finn had a shocker. What with Lords being his home ground he should have been a shoe in.
 |
|
By:
Crow,
Finn had problems because he kept hitting the stumps so then the no ball got introduced and he has had problems with his run up. I think he tried a shorter one which didn't work. I don't know what the problem is. He should be playing because he will take wickets with his pace and bounce but the coaches will know if he is shot or not at the moment. they tend to play it safe and I can also see Bresnan coming in. From a betting persepective I am happy with that. Cowan has to to go. I think you are right that Khawaja will come in for Cowan or rather should. He could be a good blunter of the attack as Watto is always likely to be the first casualty and the last thing Aus need is Cowan to get out shortly after. I personally would like to see Lyon come in. He is a better spinner than Agar. If they sense this may be a draw wicket this would ease up the workload for the three quicks for the next battle and in my view is better generalship but Khawaja probably makes more sense. |
|
By:
wd. I'm well aware of proxy internet services. A couple of years ago BF even called me up at an Indonesian hotel to check it was me. Since then, they don't seem to care, and I can bet IP no problem overseas.
But thanks for the advice. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
let's hope so, had some more at 3.75
|
|
By:
Can see the draw dropping well below 3.7, but doubt this will be a draw. Not convinced either side can bat the 200+ overs in the game that it needs for a draw in a match with no/little weather interruptions. At some stage both teams are likely to lose wickets in clumps.
|
|
By:
I can see both sides batting close enough to 5 sessions in the first innings and England batting certainly over 3 sessions of the third innings if that's the order.
Kerry Packers War BBC4 at 9pm great programme worth a watch even if only for the dodgy haircuts |
|
By:
I can see both sides batting close enough to 5 sessions in the first innings and England batting certainly over 3 sessions of the third innings if that's the order.
Kerry Packers War BBC4 at 9pm great programme worth a watch even if only for the dodgy haircuts |
|
By:
WD, reading my comment, it didn't quite come out right.
I looked into proxy internet services a couple of years back. But at the time BF were strict about not allowing Aussies to bet inplay. They no longer seem to care as much. So might be worth a second look. |
|
By:
Can't make up my mind with this one. Under these circumstances I usually lay the draw for a small amount and go in heavy if it shortens to around evens relatively early in play. Tried this last time and was left light with just the small ante-post bet as the draw didn't shorten by much. England nearly let it slip in the first Test and they will learn from the experience.
|
|
By:
No rain for 5 days looks certain, but also very good batting conditions with little cloud. Seems a while since we had a 400+ - 400+ game after 1st innings.
|
|
By:
Won't be a draw.
Can only see an England victory personally. |
|
By:
To back the draw is to ignore the general pattern of Test cricket in recent times.
Neither team looks capable of batting much beyond a day's play and batters seem to find ways of getting themselves out even on benign pitches. On a dry surface, I take Swann to tip this Test England's way on days 4/5. |
|
By:
the 1st test might've been a draw without the cloud cover on day1! expecting a pretty lifeless pitch.
Aus could bat well if they win the toss. Anderson may be feeling the effects of bowling so many overs in extreme heat. had a nibble on the draw at 3.75 now. we all know its going 3.3 or under at 11.15am on thurs  |
|
By:
I know history and records dont count in alot of peoples eyes but since 2000 there have been 28 tests at Lords of which 8 have been draws.
However of those 8 draws FOUR were in badly weather affected matches which would probably have led to a result without the weather delays. This leaves us with 4 out of 28 or 1 in 7 were draws. I'm pretty sure there will be a winner come next Monday or earlier but wouldnt like to call who the winner is |
|
By:
laid 3.25/3.3/3.35 a few days ago, got lucky I think - taken loads of 3.75 now, has to go lower for reasons mentioned
|
|
By:
I will probably be laying the first innnings score again. I was conservative last time in laying 350 for England but at 1.4 that seemed ridiculous on a first day in cloudy conditions. I would have laid a lower score if the prices had varied more. If anything over 300 is odds on either team in the first innings of the next match I will be a layer.
|