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skips21
29 Jan 13 15:23
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Date Joined: 06 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 585 | Blogger: skips21's blog
The DRAW at 4.2

The weather forcast is terrible 60-70% chance of showers/thunderstorms predicted

And we all kno what the south african weather is like when it rains its rains hard

Really cant believe the price on the forcast i wud bet

4/5 sa 7/4 draw 11/2 pakistan

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Replies: 441
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 29 Jan 13 16:03
Looking forward to this game - especially with a dubious weather forecast, and a lively outsider in Pakistan.

11 results in a row at the Wanderers - have to go back to 2000 for a draw - most of these results were accompanied by a bad weather forecast.

One for in running trading - lay the draw low, back Pakistan high is my starting plan.
By:
Mariner Paul
When: 29 Jan 13 16:24
Test cricket Love
By:
kingmax
When: 29 Jan 13 18:40
just noticed this thread...Angry
By:
skips21
When: 29 Jan 13 19:06
Whats with the angry face king max
By:
kingmax
When: 29 Jan 13 19:31
i made a thread on this game then see there was already 1....Blush
By:
skips21
When: 29 Jan 13 20:38
30% of test matches at the wanderers stadium have been drawn
By:
Lix
When: 29 Jan 13 21:19
you've got the two best bowling attacks in world cricket on a massive result deck. draw is a pure weather bet.

Will probably rain most days tho so should be fun! Grin
By:
skips21
When: 29 Jan 13 21:31
A pure weather bet u r rite mate but think 4.2 is value

Remember the england vs windies test last year draw was 3.8 smashed into odds on come the day

Wont be that brutal but hoping for the draw to come in a point before we kick off and go from there

Want to turn on sky sports on friday morning see grey clouds and umbrellas up the commentators ramping lol
By:
Footiefan111
When: 29 Jan 13 21:50
will they use floodlights and if so play can continue up to 730 pm Africa time
By:
kingmax
When: 29 Jan 13 22:13
laying SA is the best trade EVER on BF
By:
Lix
When: 29 Jan 13 22:37
LaughLaughLaugh not really!
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 09:08
I always look at a few forecasts now but my most reliable is :

YR.no - http://www.yr.no/place/South_Africa/Gauteng/Johannesburg/long.html

Looks like time lost on Monday/Tuesday but could already be over by then.

Difference with this and Windies/Eng in the summer was that game had poor weather for first couple of days - doubt draw will come in if we get full days play on first three days. 

Cheers for flagging up though - had a small bet.
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 09:14
Thats the thing with joburg weather nigel it could come from no where

Saturday dont look great either from what ive seen

Different sites give different forecasts

BBC has it raining all day every day Shocked
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 30 Jan 13 09:17
Plenty of scope for this game to move very quickly given the bowling attacks on show. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see several sessions with 5 wickets plus.

Skips - most of your 30% draws date back to the 50's and 60's.

Surely the more recent fixtures have more importance - 8% draws this century?
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 09:17

Jan 30, 2013 -- 4:14AM, skips21 wrote:


Thats the thing with joburg weather nigel it could come from no whereSaturday dont look great either from what ive seenDifferent sites give different forecastsBBC has it raining all day every day


Sure.  Weather is hugely unpredictable.  LOL - just looked at the BBC weather - interesting.  Definitely worth a small punt here but it is only a punt and not really "value" to my mind.

By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 09:22

Jan 30, 2013 -- 4:17AM, Asparagus Man wrote:


Plenty of scope for this game to move very quickly given the bowling attacks on show. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see several sessions with 5 wickets plus.Skips - most of your 30% draws date back to the 50's and 60's.Surely the more recent fixtures have more importance - 8% draws this century?


That's a interesting stat RE: 8% draws - where does it come from please?  Would indicate laying the draw to be a great bet.

By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 09:33
There has only been 33 tests i think neway

Last test was 2011/12 aussies vs saffers

1200 runs scored match finished on day 5

Overrate wont be the quickest as quicks are gonna bowl 85% of the overs

I kno its the two best bowling attacks around but come on both teams bat deep and have world class batsman, think people are getting to involved in the bowling hype

To me steyn seems to have gone of the boil a little

Reckon they could lose just over a day with the weather could be very stop start and thats the worst type

Players could be coming on and off, then they gota dry the outfield

To me 4.2 is huge value
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 09:34
Plus im not saying it WILL be a draw just reckon we cud see odds on somewhere in the game bringing a nice profit

Also gonna have pakistan on myside at 7.0 it will be rude not to
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 30 Jan 13 09:45
http://howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Grounds/GroundMatches.asp?GroundCode=066
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 09:52
Great work mate interesting read

When the draws have come in been in the months dec jan or feb

Like the look of the last saffers vs pakis test match drawn 2 full days lost Cool
By:
Lix
When: 30 Jan 13 10:30
both teams bat deep??? Mischief

how'd you work that one out skips?  Pak tail Sarfraz,Gul,Ajmal,Junaid, Big Mo

Thats p1ss weak in anyone's book. The mainstay of their batting - Misbah is nearly 39! hardly in his prime.

would also steer clear of the beeb. the love to overstate the threat of rain.

P.S. Draw 7/2 with sportingbet for any interested.
By:
kingmax
When: 30 Jan 13 11:25
SA shorteningLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
Lix
When: 30 Jan 13 11:36
you really think this will be a draw (at a non draw venue) or that Pak will win max?  saffers price is fine. they are the best team in the world playing at home. check out pak's away record in 1st tests of a series... they tend to get hammered. HTH
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 11:49
Pakis top 6 i rate highly gul can pick up 20-25 runs hes not a lost cause

By batting deep i mean 1-6 no country really has a no.8,9,10 that can bat

Lix im not saying i think it will be a draw many a time ive backed the draw at 3+ in a match not really thinking that will be the casebut have got out at odds on, thats all im saying

I also do give pakistan a huge chance saffers looked very shakey with the bat in the last three odi's i kno ab, kallis and amla were not playing but pakistans bowling line up is just amazing

Think gul, irfan and especially junaid khan are gonna love bowling on this pitch

I know what ur saying SA at home no.1 test team in the world but they are priced on them factors they are 1.56

I like to oppose short price favs of course not everyone some are value, but i try and pick out bad value short price favs

Aussies all the way long vs sri lanka in odi's and t20 i was against them every game but yet they were 1.5-6 every game against a team who i rate better than the aussies

Thats just my imo

I respect ur call lix u kno what ur talking about so i take it on board

At the mo im looking at a big red board on ghe draw at 4.2 and paki at 6.8

Hopefully it will turn around
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 11:50
Agree with Lix - draw only a back to lay in the hope that a chunk of the first few days gets wiped out
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 12:00
That was my reason for backing the draw thinking it cant drift much more than 4.2 but cud see a bit of market panic if there was rain and thunderstorms around thurs nite fri morning

Was hoping to make a point on the bet get out at 3.2 then go from there

Now im in a bit of trouble but gota sit tight an see
By:
Lix
When: 30 Jan 13 12:05
forecast is fine tho. you need saffers to bat 1st. I'm laying the draw big if/when it drops below 4.0s
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 12:19
Dont kno about fine theres plenty of rain about in SA at the mo just pot luck if it hits
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 12:29

Jan 30, 2013 -- 7:05AM, Lix wrote:


forecast is fine tho. you need saffers to bat 1st. I'm laying the draw big if/when it drops below 4.0s


yeah, definitely not "fine" that's for sure.

By:
Lix
When: 30 Jan 13 12:35
http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Johannesburg-SFXX0023

looks fine to me
By:
Mariner Paul
When: 30 Jan 13 12:36
I wouldn't be touching Pakistan here.
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 12:39
Surprised by the move out - was actually expecting a slight movement in to about 4.
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 12:51
Ive looked at 15-20 weather websites some have the weather looking ok

Some have it terrible

All i kno is been looking at the horse racing in sa and it looks terrible a couple of meets have been called off of late
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 13:12
Saffers were starting at 1.3 vs the kiwis in tests

Now they are 1.54 vs the weather and a top class pakistani side ok then
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 13:35

Jan 30, 2013 -- 7:35AM, Lix wrote:


http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Johannesburg-SFXX0023looks fine to me


mon/tuesday both 40% chance of rain.  Certainly a better forecast than others though.

By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 13:47
Just been on twitter typed in weather in joburg

People who live there are saying its so in and out fine one min p.issing it down the next etc etc

Raining quite heavy there now

Must be hard to get an accurate forcast for the place as seems so inconsistent especially days in advance

Just gonna have to wait and see friday morning
By:
skips21
When: 30 Jan 13 13:49
Weather Station
Johannesburg International Airport
Elevation
1694 m
Station Select
Now

Partly Cloudy
Temperature
23 °C
Feels Like 23 °C
Wind(km/h)
15
Sunrise / Set
5:40 AM
6:59 PM
Moon
Waning Gibbous
More Astronomy
Tonight
16 °C
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow
27 °C
Chance of Rain
50% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow Night
15 °C
T-storms
60% chance of precipitation
Friday
25 | 14 °C
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation
Saturday
27 | 15 °C
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
Sunday
29 | 16 °C
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation
7-Day Weather Forecast - Hourly Forecast Tomorrow is forecast to be Warmer than today.


Or it could be this?????
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 14:05
4.7/4.8 now!  Slightly odd.
By:
Lix
When: 30 Jan 13 14:25
3 sunny days... test will be well advanced by then. then the odd shower on days 4 and 5.  could do with that draw price lower to lay tho ! Sad
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